Tengan Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s be real about Tengan. The only spot on the list, and it’s been a slow, frustrating stretch out there. Water temp is sitting at 83°F, which is right about normal for this time of year, so that’s not a factor.

The first day, Thursday the 10th, has a little bump of 5 to 5 feet from the north, but the wind is light and cross, so it’s not doing us any favors. It’s marginal, weak energy, maybe 323 to 408, and you’d be working hard for nothing.

From Friday the 11th through next Wednesday the 16th, it’s a write-off. Swell drops to around 2 to 3 feet, mostly under 3 feet, and the wind goes onshore and cross-onshore from the east and east-southeast. Choppy, messy, and the energy readings are mostly in the low 100s, sometimes below 100. That’s a week of flat, lumpy, poor conditions.

Thursday the 17th is still flat. Then Friday the 18th shows a flicker of hope with a long-period swell from the east-southeast, 16 seconds, but the size is only about 3 feet and the wind is still cross-onshore. Energy jumps to 638 in the afternoon, so there’s some push, but the quality is poor.

Now, Saturday the 19th is when things get serious. That long-period groundswell fills in, with sets jumping to 7 feet in the morning and 8 feet by the afternoon, from the east-southeast with a period of 17 to 18 seconds. Energy readings go through the roof—3015 and then 4535—so there’s plenty of power. But the wind cranks onshore at 22 to 25 mph from the north-northeast, making it lumpy and messy. This is not clean surf; this is a fight.

Sunday the 20th gets even uglier. Swell holds at 8 feet, but the wind howls from the northeast at 37 to 47 mph, turning it into a blown-out, near-gale mess. Not surfable for most, and with that wind, it’s kitesurfing weather, not a paddle session.

Monday the 21st is a full-blown storm. Wind hits violent storm force and hurricane-force, with swells jumping to 13 to 15 feet from the north-northwest. Dangerous, and only for the most experienced, but the wind is so strong it’s a no-go. No one should be out there.

Tuesday the 22nd, the wind finally shifts offshore and cross-offshore from the west-southwest, but it’s still blowing a gale. Swell drops to 8 feet, then 8 feet from the north, with periods around 11 to 12 seconds. Energy is still strong, around 1926 and 1365. The waves are there, but the wind is so strong it’s near-gale at times, making it really hard to paddle into. It’s clean but brutal.

Wednesday the 23rd is the one bright spot. The wind settles to a moderate breeze from the northwest, the swell eases to 4 feet in the morning from the north-northwest, and it’s clean with a nice cross-offshore wind. The period drops to 9 seconds, but the energy is still moderate at 278. This is your window, your best bet for a decent, manageable surf. It’s still not perfect, but it’s the most user-friendly it’s going to get.

After that, it fades fast. Thursday the 24th and Friday the 25th see the swell drop right off, back down to under 2 feet, with light cross-shore winds. Energy readings fall to almost nothing, 15 to 40. It’s flat and back to square one.

So, overall, it’s a rough 16 days. If you’re desperate and an expert, that Saturday the 19th window might hold some big, raw power, but the wind is going to be a nightmare. The real standout, the one I’d actually point you to, is Wednesday the 23rd. It’s got some size, clean conditions, and it’s at Tengan. It’s not massive, but it’s the best on offer. Just don’t expect perfection—it’s a long-range call, so treat it as promising but not set in stone.

Keep your expectations low for most of it, and if it’s flat, it’s flat. That’s the reality of this place. It tends to turn on when the storms line up, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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