Tengan Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, let’s break this down. It’s a weird couple of weeks ahead, with one massive, dangerous pulse of energy and a whole heap of nothing else. The start is a total washout.

For the next day or so, it’s grim. The water’s warm, about 87° for our friends across the pond—a touch warmer than normal for this time of year—but the conditions are just poor. Wednesday morning at Tengan has a little bit of swell, around 6ft from the east with a solid 17-second period, but a moderate cross-onshore breeze is making it all choppy and messy. The energy is there, clocking in at 1704, but it’s not doing us any favors. You’d be better off finding something else to do today.

Thursday is a complete loss. The wind is howling, hitting 31 mph from the north, and it’s just blown out. The swell is building to around 10ft, but it won’t be ridable. Even with all that energy—over 6500—the quality is zero. Best stay onshore.

Now, Friday. This is where things get properly serious. We’ve got a massive, storm-forced swell arriving. The energy readings are astronomical—25069 in the morning and 47534 in the afternoon. We’re talking about waves potentially 24ft to 36ft. This is not for anyone but the absolute elite. The wind is cross-off and clean, which is a huge plus, but this is way beyond beginner or even intermediate territory. This is a "watch from the cliff" kind of day. It’s a true show of force.

But before you get too amped, Saturday and Sunday are absolute chaos. Hurricane and violent storm-force winds will be ripping through. The swell has all but disappeared, dropping to maybe 1ft, but the wind and sea state will make it pure survival conditions. You won’t want to be anywhere near the water. There’s no surf to be had, just a dangerous mess.

By Monday and Tuesday, things calm right down, but the swell has vanished too. We’re looking at tiny, clean ankle-biters, nothing over 3ft. The energy is weak, coming in at just a few hundred. It’s not worth the paddle.

The middle of the week, from Wednesday the 12th through to the 17th, is just a flat spell. Nothing doing. A few days with no surf at all. You’ll see some small bumps, maybe 1ft, but with long lulls and no push, it’s not going to break. It’s a standard lull for the area.

We do see a slight increase in energy around the 18th, with a 3ft east swell, but the wind is cross-onshore, making it lumpy. Then, on the 19th, we get a bit more size, around 5ft from the east with a nice 13-second period. The energy is back up to 772. But again, the wind is cross-shore and lumpy. Still not great.

The last day of the forecast, Thursday the 20th, finally looks okay. We’ve got a fresh offshore wind from the WSW, and a clean 2ft to 3ft east-northeast swell. The energy is still modest at 155-175, but clean conditions can make small waves fun. It’s a long way off, so don’t count on it, but it’s a glimmer of hope.

So, the standout here is clearly Friday the 7th. That’s the big one, but it’s a monster. It’s for experts only. If you aren’t 100% sure, don’t even think about it. Thursday the 20th might be the most "surfable" day for the average surfer, but it’s a long way out. The Tengan spot is a reef break that’s inconsistent, so it needs a lot to line up. With this much raw energy and those storm winds, the bay is going to be a mess. Honestly, for most of this stretch, it looks more interesting for the kite surfers than us paddle surfers.

It’s a frustrating look overall. One huge, terrifying day, and then a whole lot of nothing. Stay patient.

Rusty.

Read more