Tabinha Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. The forecast for Tabinha is a tough one to call a “surf outlook” because, honestly, there’s no good surf on the horizon. We’re looking at a solid 16-day stretch with absolutely nothing that’s going to get the heart pumping. Every single session is showing poor surf conditions, so we’re not picking a standout wave—we’re picking the least messy closeouts.

The core issue is the wind. It’s blowing from the east and east-southeast almost constantly, and that’s putting a cross-shore chop on everything. The early part of the week, from Sunday the 6th through Tuesday the 8th, is the worst of it. The swell is weak, around 3ft to 5ft, and the energy is almost non-existent, sitting at 72 to 200 (weak to moderate energy). With a 5 to 7 second period, it’s all windswell and no push. You’re going to be fighting a lumpy, cross-chop mess for the smallest, crumbly waves. Not worth the paddle.

The mid-period, from Wednesday the 9th through the weekend of the 13th and 14th, shows a slight bump in size and energy—we get into the 4ft to 5ft range, and the combined energy is a bit more substantial, often over 150 and up to 204 (moderate). But the wind is still all over the place, mainly cross and cross-onshore. There’s a brief moment on Wednesday morning the 9th where a cross-offshore wind is forecast, and the notes call it “clean.” That’s the only time we get a hint of quality. But it’s still only 5ft and, with that short period, it’ll be inconsistent and sectiony.

As we push into the second week, from the 15th onward, the pattern holds. The swell stays in that same 4ft to 5ft range. The energy gets stronger as we head towards the 20th and 21st, climbing to 260 and 271 (moderate), but the wind is still on it. We see more fresh breezes and that lumpy cross-chop is back for many of the sessions. The period barely improves, staying mostly in the 6 to 7 second range. It’s just a lot of white water and very little shape.

So, the honest truth is this: if you’re dead set on getting wet, your best bet is that Wednesday morning on the 9th, when the wind gets light and offers a bit of a clean face. Even then, keep your expectations in the gutter. This isn’t a time for a quality session; it’s a week for checking the cams and doing something else. With this persistent cross-shore wind and weak, short-period swell, the setup actually looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer. For us, it’s a blank run. It doesn’t tend to stay this poor for long, but this stretch is looking like a write-off.

Rusty, signing off.

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