Tabinha Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, folks, Rusty here. I’ve been staring at this forecast for the next couple of weeks, and I gotta be straight with you: it’s a pretty grim run for Tabinha. The surf is just not cooperating. We’ve got a solid 16-day window, but the first significant action worth talking about doesn’t show up until Saturday, the 18th of July, and even then, it’s a real struggle to find anything good.

Let’s walk through it. The first week is a write-off. From Sunday the 12th all the way through Friday the 17th, the scores are zeroes. The swell is small, mostly around 3 ft to 4 ft, with a short, weak period of just 4 to 7 seconds. The combined wave energy is low, mostly under 200 (the highest is 154 on the 12th), so it’s just mushy, weak stuff. The wind is a problem too – it’s blowing cross or cross-on from the E and SE at 12 to 15 mph, putting a chop on everything. The wave comments are all "poor surf conditions". It’s not worth paddling out.

Then we get to Saturday the 18th of July. That morning, things finally change a little. We get a clean, cross-off wind from the SE at 12 mph, and the swell bumps up to 4 ft from the E with a 7-second period. The combined energy jumps to 253 (moderate), and the wave comment finally says "marginal surf forecast". But that’s the best we get. The afternoon goes back to poor conditions with cross-onshore winds.

From Sunday the 19th onward, it’s the same story repeating. The swell stays around 3 ft to 5 ft, period is short at 6-7 seconds, and the wind is either a clean but weak cross-off in the mornings, or a messy cross-shore chop in the afternoons. The energy numbers are mostly in the 100-200 range, which is moderate but not exciting. The wave comments are all "poor surf conditions" again. It’s a long, flat stretch.

The absolute best on offer, and I’m stretching here, is the morning of Saturday the 18th of July. The water temp is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there. Tabinha is an exposed break, and the swell direction is from the E, which is not the optimum (NE is the sweet spot), so the waves won’t be lining up perfectly. The crowd factor is "sometimes", so you might have a few others out there, but it won’t be a zoo. For a solid intermediate surfer, the 4 ft with clean, cross-off wind is okay, but it’s not a standout. It’s the only window with a score above zero.

Honestly, the rest of the period is a total dud. If you’re desperate for a paddle, Saturday morning the 18th is your only chance. Otherwise, the next 16 days look like a bust for any decent waves at Tabinha.

Rusty.

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