South Bird Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again. Let's size up South Bird Rock in feet and miles per hour.

The next 16 days are a bit of a mixed bag, but honestly, it's mostly a waiting game. The water is sitting at a very unusual 76° right now, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year — a real treat if you're paddling out without a thick wetsuit.

We start off with some small-scale swell, but it's not looking great. Thursday the 6th has a weak 2ft SW swell churning through, but the wind is cross-onshore and the energy is low (172). The waves are going to be pretty poor. That trend continues right through the week. The swell stays small, mostly between 1ft and 3ft, with a mix of SW and SSW directions. The wind keeps coming from the west or WNW, which is cross-on or cross-shore, so it's not going to clean up. The combined energy picks up a bit through the weekend, hitting 388 on Friday, but the quality is still described as poor. There's a hint of a long-period (19 seconds) groundswell on Friday the 7th, but with a cross-onshore wind, it's not going to translate into good waves here at the reef.

The first week is pretty much a write-off. There's a constant thread of "poor surf conditions" with only a couple of moments labelled "marginal" — like Tuesday afternoon the 11th and Wednesday afternoon the 12th, but with light cross-onshore winds and small swell, it's not worth getting excited about. The combined energy through this period is moderate, sitting between 200 and 400, but the wind is the killer.

Now, into the second week, things start to look a little more interesting. The first standout is on Friday the 14th of August. The morning brings a 2ft SW groundswell with a period of 18 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 610 (strong). The wind is still cross-onshore, but that energy is building. The real highlight, though, looks to be Saturday the 15th of August. The swell builds to 4ft from the SW with a period of 16 seconds, and the combined energy is at its peak for the entire forecast at 614 (strong). The wind is a gentle cross-shore (WNW 9 mph), which is the best wind we've seen in the whole outlook. This is the best session on offer. It's a reef break, and with a longer period (16 seconds), the waves should have some good shape and power, though it might be a bit straight for some.

Sunday the 16th holds some energy too (481 in the morning), but the swell is starting to back off (3ft) and the wind is back to cross-onshore. After that, it fades back into the poor conditions we saw in the first week.

So, the call is simple. The first week is a write-off — small, choppy, and messy. The only real standout is Saturday the 15th of August. That's your window. It's still not huge, but with a solid 4ft SW groundswell, a 16-second period, and a favourable cross-shore breeze, it's the best we've got. The rest of the window is for checking the forecast and hoping.

Rusty out.

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