Big Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what the coming weeks have got in store for us in this neck of the woods. I'm gonna level with you straight up: it's been a tough stretch, and right now, things are looking pretty grim for a proper surf. We’re starting with a bit of a gap here, because the first proper day where you'd even think about paddling out is a long way off.

Let’s talk about the one spot we've got on the radar: Big Rock. This is a solid reef setup, handles a west swell best, and you'll want to be an advanced surfer to tackle it. It's fairly consistent, but when it's on, it can be a magnet for the crew, so expect the crowd factor to be 'often' – you won't be surfing alone.

Right now, and for most of this week, it’s a no-go. We're looking at a long stretch of days with "poor surf conditions" and scores that just don't cut it. The wind is a constant headache, mostly coming from the WNW at 9 mph as a cross-onshore, or straight onshore from the WSW. It's choppy, messy, and with combined swell energy mostly wobbling in the 200 to 300s (moderate), it’s just not worth the effort. The swell is tiny, hovering around 2 ft to 3 ft from the SW, with a long period of 16-18 seconds. That’s a long period groundswell, which at the best of times doesn't love a reef that's likely more exposed to a different direction, and with that wind, it’s just a bumpy mess.

We do see a slight bump in energy around Friday the 14th, where the combined energy jumps up to 544 (strong). The swell height only hits 2 ft, but the period is a lengthy 18 seconds. The morning of the 14th is the first time we see a "marginal" note, with a score reaching a 2 out of 10. There's a light breeze from the W at 6 mph, which is straight onshore. It's not great, but it's the best we've seen all week.

The best offering in this whole 16-day window has to be Saturday the 15th. The swell starts to push up to 3 ft in the morning and 4 ft by the afternoon, all from the SW with a 16-second period. The combined energy is strong at 613. But here's the kicker: the wind. It's going to be a cross-onshore from the WNW, picking up to 12 mph in the afternoon. That's going to chop it right up. The morning might be the lesser of two evils, but it's still getting a score of 1 out of 10. So, 4 ft of long-period SW swell, but with strong cross-onshore wind... it’s going to be a battle. Honestly, with those winds and that setup, it might look more interesting for a kite surfer than someone on a paddle board.

After that, things just fade back into the same pattern of small, onshore, average swells for the rest of the month. There is a moment on Saturday the 22nd where a 3 ft swell from the W shows up with a short 9-second period, but again, the wind is still a problem. It’s a long, flat run of poor conditions.

So, if you're desperate, the window around Friday 14th and Saturday 15th of August is your best shot, but keep your expectations low. It’s not going to be classic. For the rest of it? Save your energy, wait for a better forecast. This stretch might be a bit more normal for the area when it gets like this, but it never stays poor forever.

Rusty, signing off.

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