Big Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about the next couple of weeks at Big Rock.

Overall, it’s a tough run. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor or marginal conditions, with a hint of something better way out around the 22nd and 23rd of July. The water temp is a real standout right now – 71°F, which is a whopping 5°F warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s a seriously warm anomaly, feels more like a mid-summer bath than a typical July.

For the first week or so, it’s pretty grim. From Sunday the 12th right through to Friday the 17th, the swell is small and weak, mostly bouncing around 2ft to 3ft, with combined wave energy mostly in the low to mid hundreds (300 to 450). The wind is a killer – consistently onshore or cross-onshore, making for choppy, messy conditions. The wave comment tells the story: “poor surf conditions” for nearly every session. There’s nothing to get excited about here.

Into the weekend of the 18th and 19th, the swell picks up a touch, with chest-high waves around 4ft to 4ft from the S and SW, but the energy is moderate (869 to 789). The wind is still cross-onshore, so it’s going to be bumpy. The surf is still only “marginal” at best. It’s a tough slog.

Now, the real glimmer of hope arrives on Wednesday the 22nd of July. The afternoon session sees a proper jump: a solid 6ft swell from the SSW, with a period of 15 seconds. That’s a groundswell with some real grunt, and the combined energy hits a strong 1247. The wind is a gentle cross-shore, which is a huge plus. This is the best on offer for the whole outlook. It’s a reef break, so that long period (15s) should wrap in nicely and offer some good shape, but it’s also a big boy wave at 6ft – definitely one for the experienced crew. The following morning, Thursday the 23rd, keeps the momentum with a 6ft SSW swell, period 14 seconds, and energy at 1405, but the wind switches to a light cross-onshore, which will introduce a bit of texture. That Thursday afternoon also holds 6ft, but the wind picks up to a gentle breeze cross-onshore, making it a bit choppier. These are the standout days, but they are a long way out, so keep one eye on the charts.

After that, it fades again. The 24th and 25th see the swell drop back to 4ft to 6ft, but the wind gets stronger and more onshore, killing the quality. The final few days are back to tiny, weak surf with bumpy winds.

If you’re a beginner, this stretch is a no-go. The only real window of decent, clean waves is the 22nd and 23rd, and the swell is over 5ft, so it’s borderline for intermediates. For the experts, that Wednesday afternoon on the 22nd is the one to circle. The rest of the run is a write-off for paddle surfing – honestly, with the wind and chop, a kite would be more fun on those choppy days.

Stay patient, and hope the long-range forecast firms up.

Rusty

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