Big Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on the menu for the next couple of weeks. I’ve got to be straight with you – this outlook is a tough one. We’re looking at a long stretch of small, weak surf and a lot of "poor surf conditions" flags. The main issue is that while we have a consistent, light offshore breeze from the West for much of the period, the swell is just too small and weak to get excited about. The water is sitting at a very warm 75°, which is running much warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s a nice bonus for the skin, but the waves are the real story here.

The first week, from Sunday the 2nd of August through to the following Saturday, offers nothing recommendable. We’re dealing with tiny waves of 1ft to 2ft, mostly from the SW, with the combined energy reading in the low to mid hundreds (157 to 388). That’s weak sauce. The wind is often offshore, but the waves are just too small to hold any shape. Even the longer period swells (up to 19 seconds) can’t save this – the energy is just too low to push any decent face onto the reef.

We then hit a dead zone from Sunday the 9th through to Thursday the 13th. The swell stays tiny, the energy is still weak (252 to 356), and the wind starts to get a cross-on component, making things even choppier. It’s a blank run of about five days with no real surf to chase.

The first glimmer of hope comes at the tail end of the outlook. On Friday the 14th of August, we finally see a bump in the swell. The combined energy jumps to a strong 507 in the morning and 651 in the afternoon. Swell height is still only 2ft to 3ft, but that longer period of 18 seconds gives it a bit more punch. The wind stays light and offshore from the West, keeping the surface silky. Even then, the forecast is only calling it "marginal", so don’t expect a classic.

The standout window, if you can call it that, is the afternoon of Friday the 14th and Saturday morning the 15th of August. The energy is strong (651 and 515), the swell is just starting to push past 3ft, and the wind is perfectly offshore. For a shallow reef like Big Rock (WSW exposure), that long-period groundswell will be *very* long (18-16 seconds), which means the waves will be thick, powerful, and will likely hold up well on the reef. But that period is so long, it can make the sets a bit irregular. This is strictly for the advanced crew – the swell is not big enough for it to be a danger, but the reef setup and the long period mean you need to know what you’re doing. Crowds are "often" a problem here, so you’ll want to be early.

Beyond that, the following Sunday and Monday (16th and 17th) drop back down to poor, weak surf. So, if you’re patient, the 14th and 15th are your best bet, but it’s a long wait for a marginal window. This is a quiet period for the region.

Rusty.

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