Big Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's talk about Big Rock.

Look, it’s a tough outlook for the next 16 days. We've got a classic reef setup at Big Rock that's consistently exposed to the west, but for the vast majority of this period, the conditions are just not coming together. It's a long stretch of poor surf, with the only faint glimmers of hope being a few marginal sessions. The water temp is right around 72°, which feels a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, a bit of a treat if you can get in.

For the first week, from Thursday the 10th to Tuesday the 15th, it's pretty grim. The swell is there – a persistent 2ft to 4ft groundswell from the southwest with a long period of 14 to 20 seconds, giving you that deep ocean energy (moderate combined energy, around 259 to 485). But the wind is the killer. It's mostly cross-shore or worse, cross-onshore, cooking the surface into a chop. Thursday afternoon's 3ft SW swell (485) with a 16-second period is the first look, but that 9 mph cross-wind just ruins it. The following morning on Friday the 11th, the same size swell with a 15-second period gets battered by a 12 mph cross-wind – no good. Saturday the 12th is even worse, with the wind going onshore. The whole first week is a write-off. There's one moment on Tuesday morning the 15th where the wind drops to a light cross-onshore 6 mph breeze on a 2ft SW groundswell (283), but the wave state is still described as having small wind ripples. It’s not worth the paddle.

We hit a bit of a dry spell where the only sessions with even a marginal score are mornings and afternoons from the 16th to the 19th. Wednesday the 16th morning has that 3ft SW swell (398) with an 18-second period and light onshore wind, but the wind state is unknown. It's a gamble. Same story for the 19th, a Saturday morning with a 3ft SW swell (525) and light onshore wind – marginal at best.

The best potential comes at the very end of the window, but it's still a long shot. On Sunday the 21st and Monday the 22nd, the swell fills in a little more. Look at Sunday afternoon the 21st: a 4ft SW swell (713) with a 17-second period. The combined energy is ramping up to a stronger 713. But again, it's a 9 mph onshore wind. It breaks my heart to say it, but for a surfer on a reef break, that onshore flow will make for a lumpy, frustrating wave. It’s not a standout. The only session that might tempt you is the morning of Monday the 22nd with a similar 4ft SW swell (594) but still a 9 mph cross-onshore. It's messy.

The absolute best on offer is still pretty average. If you are desperate, the marginal window on Sunday morning the 20th of September has a 3ft SW swell (709) with very long 18-second period and only a 6 mph cross-onshore breeze. That's the lightest wind in the whole run with a sizeable swell. The wave energy is solid (709) and with that period, it will push through. But for a reef, it's not going to be clean. This setup is honestly more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer given the persistent cross-onshore and onshore wind patterns.

Hang in there, but don't expect much.

- Rusty

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