Big Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Big Rock has in store for us over the next couple of weeks. I’ll be straight with you – this forecast is a tough one to get excited about.

We’re kicking off on Wednesday, July 22nd, and the outlook is grim from the get-go. The water is a very unusual 74°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year. The surf is a weak 3ft from the SW with a 14-second period, which gives it some energy (565), but it’s all blown out. That NW wind is coming straight across the face, making it choppy and messy. The models are calling it poor, and I’m not one to argue.

Thursday, July 23rd, sees a tiny bump to 4ft from the SSW in the morning, with a WSW wind that’s technically offshore. The period is 13 seconds, so there’s some shape there, but the energy (551) is still weak. The catch is the tide might be a problem, leaving it marginal. The afternoon is more of the same, just a bit smaller and choppier.

Friday, July 24th, brings a weird one. The swell drops to 2ft, but the period jumps to 24 seconds – that’s a very long-period groundswell. The energy spikes to 936, which is moderate, but for a reef like Big Rock, a period that long can make the waves break too straight and close out. It’s a head-scratcher, and the cross-onshore wind doesn’t help. Keep it in the back of your mind, but don’t get your hopes up.

The weekend (July 25th-26th) is all marginal. Tiny 3ft to 3ft swell from the SW, with light winds that are onshore or cross-shore. The energy is moderate (744 on Saturday morning), but the waves are small and the wind is never quite right. Not worth pulling the trigger.

Next week, from Monday, July 27th, through Wednesday, July 30th, the swell stays in the 3ft to 4ft range from the SW, with periods around 16-17 seconds. The energy climbs into the 700-1000 range, which is moderate. But that persistent cross-onshore wind from the SW and WSW keeps the surface chopped up. Monday morning sees the best energy of the week (963) with 4ft, 18-second swell, but it’s still light cross-onshore. It’s marginal – a case of “you might get a few, but you’ll be fighting the chop.”

The end of the month and into August is a write-off. From July 31st through August 6th, the swell drops below 3ft, the energy plummets to under 500, and the periods get shorter. The wind is all over the place, but it’s mostly onshore or cross-onshore. The models are calling it poor or marginal at best. This is a run of flat, weak, and choppy conditions that will test your patience.

The Verdict: There is no standout here. The best of a bad bunch is probably the early morning of Monday, July 27th, with 4ft of 18-second SW groundswell and light cross-onshore wind. It’s not clean, but it’s the most energy we see. The long-period swell on Friday, July 24th, is a curiosity, but the wind and closing-out potential make it a gamble. Don’t expect much. This is a lean spell for Big Rock.

Rusty.

Read more