Big Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

First up, the water temp is sitting at 72°F which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s a nice little bonus right off the bat, makes the session a bit more pleasant.

Honestly, looking at the whole 16-day window, I’ve got to be straight with you – it’s a pretty grim run. There’s no real fire in the forecast, and the first day worth mentioning is Tuesday the 8th of September. Even then, it’s not a happy one. The swell is around 3 ft, coming from the SSW, but that wind is howling from the NW at 12 mph, giving us a cross-on mess. The combined energy is moderate (462), but it’s chopped up and poor. Honestly, this is more of a kite session than a paddle session if you ask me.

For the rest of that first week and into the second, we’re looking at tiny, weak swells – mostly 2 ft to 3 ft – with a mix of onshore and cross-onshore winds. The period is long on some days, hitting 16 seconds, which would normally get a bloke excited, but with no size and the wind all wrong, it’s just a tease. The combined energy stays in the moderate range, but the comments keep saying “poor surf conditions” or “marginal.” Even the Thursday morning of the 10th, which gets a score of 2 out of 10, is still a marginal call with a 3 ft SW swell and a cross-shore wind. Not something you’d rush out for.

Then we hit a bit of a shift around Sunday the 13th. The swell direction swings to the west and the period drops to a short 8 seconds. The height bumps up a touch to 4 ft-4 ft, but the wind is still cross-on or onshore. It’s still messy.

The real highlight, if you can call it that, is probably the far end of the forecast. From Monday the 21st of September through to Wednesday the 23rd, we see a consistent run of 3 ft to 3 ft SW swell with a long period of 16 to 17 seconds. The wind finally looks to be offshore, from the WNW or W, at 6 to 9 mph. That’s clean. The combined energy is solid, hitting 556 on the morning of the 21st (strong). But the guidance says “marginal” which likely means the tide or the weak size is the issue. For a sneaky glassy session on a longboard, it might be the best of a bad lot. These are the best options on offer, but they’re still a long way off and the forecast could change.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a write-off for quality surf. The second week shows a bit of promise, especially the 21st to the 23rd, but it’s all small and clean, not big. The standout, by default, is Big Rock with a clean, offshore wind on that 3 ft to 3 ft groundswell. It’s an exposed reef break for advanced surfers, and it’s fairly consistent, but it’s a picky session. Keep your expectations in check.

Rusty.

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