Big Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break it down. The swell window is wide open to the west, and Big Rock is exposed to it, so there’s always something moving. But fire it up? Not really. The forecast is a long, drawn-out run of modest swell and onshore breezes that keep things messy. I’ll be honest, this is a tough stretch for anyone looking for a proper session.

Right now, take Wednesday 29 July. We’ve got a 4ft SW swell rolling in with a 16 second period – that’s proper groundswell, long lines, plenty of energy. The combined energy is at 945, which is moderate, so there’s some push. The wind is a light cross-on from the SW at 6 mph, which is not ideal but it’s light, so it won’t trash it completely. Water temp is sitting at 75°F. That’s a massive 8°F warmer than average for this time of year – very unusual, so you’ll be in for a warm one. The wave comment sums it up though: “questionable tide conditions” and a marginal forecast. For a break like Big Rock, which needs a clean line, this is a miss. It’s not the day.

Moving through Thursday 30 July and Friday 31 July, the swell stays around 4ft to 4ft, period drops a little, and the wind stays onshore from the W. The energy drops from 761 down to 687. Still not bad-looking on paper, but the wind is onshore, not offshore, and the scores are low. This is not the window to clear your schedule. By Friday afternoon, the swell drops to 3ft and the energy plummets to 434. It’s going flat-ish and messy.

Then we hit a long dry spell. From Saturday 1 August all the way through to Wednesday 13 August, the swell barely manages 3ft at the start and then sits around 1ft to 2ft for the rest. The period jumps around from 13 seconds up to 19 seconds on the 7th, which gives it some long-period energy, but the height is just too small – combined energy stays in the 150 to 400 range, which is weak. The wind is nearly always onshore or cross-onshore, light to gentle breeze. The wave comments are all “poor surf conditions” or “marginal”. There’s nothing to recommend here. It’s a two-week stretch of barely ridable slop.

If you’re a beginner, nothing here is over 5ft so no worries on that front, but the quality is low. The only standout, if you can call it that, is the very first morning on Wednesday 29 July. The swell direction is SW, which matches the optimum swell direction for Big Rock (W). The period is 16 seconds, so it’s a proper groundswell, but at a reef break like Big Rock, that long period can make it a bit too straight and fast for some. And with the wind cross-on, it’s not going to be clean. It’s the best of a bad bunch, but it's not good.

In short: the first day has a pulse of energy, but conditions are not cooperating. After that, you’re looking at a gap of nearly two weeks with nothing worth getting wet for. For a spot that’s fairly consistent, this is a rough run, but it happens. Forecasts can change.

Rusty

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