Big Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, looking straight at the chart for the next two and a half weeks. Let's be honest right off the bat: things are looking pretty grim for a long stretch. The first ten days or so are a write-off, with tiny, weak, and often messy swells. The water is sitting at a very unusual 74°F at Big Rock in the morning, which is way warmer than normal for this time of year, but that's about the only highlight for a while.

From Saturday the 15th right through to the end of the week starting the 24th, we're looking at a long, flat spell. Swell heights are barely scraping 2ft to 4ft, and when they do show up, the period is all over the place and the energy is weak – we're talking combined energy values in the 300 to 600 range, which is just not enough to get excited about. Winds are mostly cross-on or onshore, making for choppy, poor surf conditions. You're not missing anything.

There's a solid gap there with absolutely nothing to recommend. It's a lean stretch.

Then, things finally start to perk up around the 25th of August. The charts show a decent pulse of S-SSW swell arriving, pushing heights up to 5ft to 6ft. The combined energy jumps into four-digit territory, hitting 1554 on Tuesday the 25th morning, which is a big change. This is a groundswell with a period of 16 seconds, meaning it's got some serious length and power behind it. For a reef break like Big Rock, that's a good thing – it should hold up and offer some proper lines.

The best window is looking like Tuesday the 25th morning through Wednesday the 26th morning. The swell is 5ft–6ft from the S-SSW, and the wind is light, going from a light cross-shore to a light cross-onshore. The water is still warm, and the crowd factor at Big Rock is often, so it's going to be a popular spot when it turns on. This is the standout period. The 6ft swell on Wednesday morning is borderline for beginners, but for the experienced crew, it's going to be the pick of the whole forecast.

The later part of the run, from the 28th onward, starts to fade back down to smaller, less powerful swells, though the period stays long. It's a promising end to the window, but that 25th-26th window is the one to circle.

Alright, keep watching the sky.

Rusty.

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