Big Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming our way.

Honestly, the next 16 days are a tough watch for Big Rock. There’s no real green light in the whole run. The water is a balmy 75°, which is a whopping 7° warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s very unusual, feels like a bath out there.

The first few days are a write-off. On Wednesday the 2nd, we’ve got a clean 3ft SSW swell with a 13-second period, but the wind is blowing straight onshore at 6 mph, and the report says "poor surf conditions." The combined energy is weak (379). That’s a no-go. Thursday the 3rd is more of the same, with 2ft to 3ft SSW swell, but the wind picks up to 12 mph, just making a mess of it.

Friday the 4th offers a glimmer that’s not really worth chasing. The swell bumps up to 3ft from the SW, period is a nice 17 seconds, and the energy climbs to 724. But the wind is cross-onshore, and it’s only rated as "marginal." It’s small, clean-lined, but the wind will mess up the face.

Saturday the 5th is probably the best of a bad lot, but it’s still not great. The morning sees a 4ft S swell with a 14-second period, and the wind goes light offshore from the W at 3 mph. The combined energy is 957. That offshore wind is a major positive, so it will be clean. But the size is small, and the consistency is "fairly consistent" here, so you might get a few. It’s a "marginal" call, but if you’re desperate, that’s your window.

Sunday the 6th sees the swell build to 6ft from the SSW, with energy at 1401 – that’s moderate to strong. But the wind swings to a cross-shore NNW at 9 mph, and it’s described as "gentle cross-shore with slight cross-chop." For a reef break like Big Rock, that’s not ideal. It’s going to be lumpy. This is still only a "marginal" call.

After that, it’s a long grind. From Monday the 9th all the way through to the 17th, the swell drops and the wind stays onshore or cross-onshore. The waves are tiny, mostly under 3ft, and the conditions are consistently "poor." There’s a brief spike on the morning of the 15th with a 3ft W swell, but the period is a short 8 seconds, and the wind is cross-onshore again. Not worth a paddle.

The very end of the run on Thursday the 17th afternoon shows a 3ft SW swell with a 21-second period – that’s a very long period groundswell. The energy is 727, and the wind is light offshore. But it’s still only scored as "marginal," and the swell is tiny. For a point or reef, that long period can be magic, but here at Big Rock it might just close out or be too straight.

So, the standout? It’s the Saturday morning (5th) with the offshore wind. That’s the only time the stars align even slightly. The rest of the window is a full-on gap of poor conditions. You’d be better off waiting for the next system.

Rusty, signing off.

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