Big Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at a pretty long stretch ahead for Big Rock. It’s a reef setup, exposed to the west, and let me tell you, the water is sitting at 73° – that’s a solid 5° warmer than you’d expect for this time of year. You’re gonna feel like you’re surfing in a bath.

The real story here is that we’ve got a 16-day window, but the first few days are a write-off. Tuesday into Wednesday, the wind is howling cross-onshore, around 12 mph, and the swell is a weak, messy 3 ft from the southwest. The combined energy is sitting at 508, which is moderate, but it’s all junk. The wave comment says it all: poor surf conditions. We’re looking at a gap of a couple of days with nothing worth paddling out for.

Then Thursday the 23rd, things start to look a little more interesting. The swell bumps up a bit to 4 ft, and the wind swings light and onshore from the west (6 mph). The combined energy jumps to 547 (moderate), but the forecast is still “marginal” with questionable tide. Still, it’s the first time the wind is light enough to not totally ruin it. Friday the 24th brings a long-period groundswell from the southwest – 24 seconds! That’s proper energy, with 823 on the combined energy meter. But the swell is tiny, only 2 ft to 2 ft, and the wind is cross-onshore, so it’s going to be a bit bumpy. This is a classic case of a long period wave that might break a bit too straight for a reef, but if you’re a patient surfer, you might find a rare clean one.

The best chance we’ve got in this whole run is shaping up for Monday the 27th into Tuesday the 28th. The swell holds steady around 4 ft to 4 ft from the southwest, with a period of 17 to 18 seconds. The combined energy is over 1000 (1007 on Monday morning) – that’s strong wave energy. The wind is a gentle cross-shore from the south-southwest at 9 mph, which is about as good as it gets for this spot. This is the standout. It’s a reef, so it’s for the advanced crew, and the crowds are often here, so expect company. But if you can get out on those mornings, it’s going to be clean and punchy.

Then we hit the end of July and start of August. Friday the 31st of July sees a spike in swell – 5 ft to 6 ft from the south-southwest, with a period of 14 to 15 seconds. The combined energy hits 1286, which is strong. But the wind is onshore, which is a bummer. It’s marginal, and at 6 ft, it’s getting a bit big for the average punter. After that, it drops off hard. From the 1st of August onward, the swell shrinks back to 2 ft to 2 ft, and the energy fades into the 200s. The wind is light and cross-onshore, but there’s just no power in the water. The last 5 days of the forecast are a total blank – poor surf conditions, nothing to get excited about.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a slow grind, with the real highlight being the Monday 27th and Tuesday 28th. That’s your window for a decent session. After that, it fizzles out. Keep an eye on that long-range forecast, but for now, mark your calendar for the 27th.

- Rusty

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