Shonan Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what Shonan has in store over the next couple of weeks. Honestly, it's a tough start. We’ve got a long dry spell before anything really gets going. From now until mid-September, conditions are flat or too weak to bother with, so you’re looking at a solid gap of about nine days with no real surf on offer. Don’t hang up the board just yet, though – the second half of September looks like it’ll deliver the goods.

The first real pulse shows up on Saturday the 19th of September. We’re looking at a SSE swell pushing 7ft with a very long period of 16 seconds, and a big jump in energy (1928). That kind of period means powerful groundswell, but at a beach-and-reef set-up like Shonan, it might break a bit too straight. Winds are cross-off from the NNE at 12 mph, so the surface should be clean. This is solid for experienced surfers, but the size and long period will make it tricky for beginners. Sunday the 20th sharpens up even more. The swell drops slightly to 6ft from the SSE, period still a very long 14 seconds, and energy is strong (1779). Wind goes light offshore from the NE, which is a big plus. By the afternoon, it goes glassy – light SSE breeze – and the swell holds at 7ft from the S with the same long period. Clean, lined-up waves and the crowd factor is worth a mention: this spot can get busy, so expect company.

Now, the absolute standout. Monday the 21st of September is a monster. The morning has a 23ft SSW swell with a period of 15 seconds – that’s a massive, very long period groundswell. Energy readings are through the roof at 20493. Winds are calm and glassy. Here’s the thing: that size is way too big for Shonan, even for experts. It’s a cautionary call – the waves will be huge and dangerous. The afternoon eases back to a still very heavy 12ft from the S, period 13 seconds, with glassy conditions. That is excellent for very experienced surfers, but anyone else should stay well clear.

Water temperature around the start of this swell action is a touch warmer than normal for the time of year – about 82°F with a 3° anomaly. Nothing too extreme, just a little above average.

The last few days of the forecast window drop off significantly in quality, with smaller, weaker swell and messy onshore wind, especially by the 24th with strong cross-onshore and lumpy conditions. So, if I had to call it, the real window is Saturday the 19th through Monday the 21st, with Sunday and Monday afternoon being the premium moments for those who can handle it.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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