Shipwrecks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’ve got a good look at the forecast for Shipwrecks. Let’s be real, the next week and a half is a bit of a struggle, but if you’re patient, there’s a flicker of hope way down the line.

The overall pattern is messy. We’ve got a big pulse of swell coming in right away, but the wind is going to ruin it for a few days. The water is a real standout though – it’s sitting at a very unusual 88°F, which is over 5°F warmer than normal for this time of year. It’s like wearing a shorty in a sauna.

Starting Wednesday, September 2nd, the swell is solid at 7 ft from the SSE, with a moderate 11-second period, and there’s a massive amount of energy in the water (1738). But the wind is a cross-on from the E at 9 mph, and we’ve got the risk of thunderstorms. It’s gonna be choppy and messy. That afternoon, it gets worse, with a direct onshore wind and the swell jumping to 10 ft from the S (2520 energy). This is expert-only territory, and honestly, with the wind howling onshore, it’s going to be a washing machine. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Thursday, September 3rd, is more of the same. The morning has an onshore wind with 8 ft swell, and the afternoon is a choppy cross-on shore. We don’t get a clean break until Friday, September 4th, but the swell is already dropping. The morning is still a messy cross-on, and by the afternoon, the wind shifts to a cross-shore. The swell is 6 ft from the SSW with a 12-second period, giving us moderate energy (1394), but the cross-chop makes it a tough paddle.

The real standouts, if you can call them that, come on the weekend of September 5th and 6th. The swell drops to around 3 ft, but the wind turns clean. On Saturday afternoon, we get a light cross-offshore breeze from the WSW, cleaning up the 3 ft SSW swell (789 energy). Sunday afternoon has a similar story with a clean cross-offshore breeze from the WNW, but the swell is even smaller at 3 ft (447 energy). These are the only windows where the surf is clean, but it’s small. It’s a longboard or a funboard kind of vibe.

After that, we hit a major dry spell. From Monday, September 7th, all the way through Wednesday, September 16th, it’s mostly small, weak, and wind-hit. The swell drops to 1 ft to 3 ft, and the energy falls into the low hundreds. A few moments like Tuesday afternoon, September 8th, are glassy, and some afternoons are clean, but the waves are just too small to get excited about. There’s a gap of about 10 days where the surf is either poor or just ankle-biters.

But hold on. The very end of the forecast is where it gets interesting. On Thursday, September 17th, the swell starts to build again. The morning shows 2 ft from the SW with a very long 21-second period (554 energy). The wind is onshore though, so it’s a question mark. But the afternoon on the 17th is the best bet in the entire 16-day window. The swell is still 2 ft from the SW, but the period is a massive 21 seconds, giving us solid energy (590). The wind is a light cross-offshore breeze from the WSW. For a reef and point break like Shipwrecks, that long-period groundswell is going to wrap in beautifully, offering clean, lined-up waves. It’s still a smaller swell, but the quality will be there. This is your one true standout – it’s off in the distance, so forecasts could change, but it looks promising.

So, mate, the first week is a write-off. The second weekend and the 17th are your only real shots. Don’t hold your breath for the rest.

- Rusty

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