San Carpoforo Creek Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into what’s on the table for San Carpoforo Creek. The long-term outlook is a tough one, to be honest. For the next couple of weeks, we’ve got a lot of ‘marginal’ and ‘poor’ flags flying, with very few windows where it all comes together.

Right now, the water is sitting at 57°, which is a bit colder than normal for the time of year—about two and a half degrees off, so you’ll want that 4/3.

Starting off, Thursday morning we have a 4-ft swell from the WNW, period is 10 seconds with a light cross-on breeze. It’s not great, the combined wave energy is moderate (567), but you’ll find a few crumbly ones if you’re desperate. The wind switches onshore in the afternoon, and the swell drops right down to 2 ft, so don’t bother.

Friday through to the following Wednesday is a pretty grim stretch. Swells are small, mostly between 2 ft and 4 ft, and the wind is almost always cross-onshore or onshore. The period is long, hitting 15 to 19 seconds at times, which means straight lines and slow sets at this beach-and-river-mouth setup. The energy picks up a bit from Monday the 6th to Wednesday the 8th (between 693 and 1227 in the energy reading), but it’s all messy and choppy with moderate winds. Not worth paddling out.

Now, into the second week, there’s a glimmer. On Friday the 10th, the morning looks like the first proper chance. We’ve got a 5-ft swell from the WNW, period around 10 seconds, and the wind goes light onshore from the west at just 3 mph. The energy is still moderate (791) and the conditions are described as marginal, but it’s the best we’ve seen in a while. The afternoon cleans up further with a 3-ft SSW groundswell at 15 seconds and light offshore wind. If you can get in before the tide does its thing, you might snag a few lined-up runners on the low tide.

Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th offer similar small waves—3 ft from the SSW, periods around 14-15 seconds—with light winds, sometimes cross-onshore but still workable. Crowds are ‘sometimes’ an issue here, which means on a Saturday morning with a bit of sun, there will likely be a handful of other locals out.

The real standout of the whole outlook, and I mean the only one that gets the heart pumping, is Friday the 17th of July. The morning shows glassy conditions with a 3-ft WNW groundswell, period of 16 seconds, and water barely a ripple. The combined energy is moderate (672) but with clean, glassy conditions and that long-period groundswell, those lines will peel beautifully along the creek mouth. This is the session to aim for—it won’t be massive, but it’ll be clean as a whistle. Be ready for a few others to have the same idea.

Everything after that Friday afternoon goes back to cross-onshore chop.

The top pick: San Carpoforo Creek on the morning of Friday, 17th July—3-ft WNW groundswell with glassy conditions. It’s the only real gem in this 16-day stretch.

Rusty out.

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