San Carpoforo Creek Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it for our local stretch, San Carpoforo Creek.

Right off the bat, we’re looking at a pretty slow start with a lot of onshore wind messing up the waves. The first few days are a write-off for any decent surf. Friday morning the 17th, we’ve got 4ft of short-period, 8 second swell from the WNW, but it’s cross-on with a light breeze, and the water is running a bit cool for the time of year at 59°. The energy is moderate at 661, but the conditions just aren’t there. The afternoon goes from bad to worse with a 5ft swell getting chopped up by a 9 mph cross-on wind. Saturday and Sunday are similar—small, messy, and not worth paddling out for.

We’ve got a gap here with no real standouts until Tuesday morning, the 21st of July. That’s where things get interesting. The swell jumps to 6ft from the SSW at a 14-second period. That’s a solid groundswell with moderate-to-strong energy (1228). The wind swings light and cross-off from the SSE, which is key. The report says “clean” for the wave state, and for intermediate surfers, this is the best window in the run. The only hitch is that at 6ft, it’s getting a bit too much for beginners, but for the rest of us, it’s a proper session. Waves this size with that period are going to hold up nicely on the creek’s exposed sandbar. The morning is the call.

After that, the pattern gets messy again. Afternoon winds pick up, and the swell drops back down. A few days in the middle of the week see light wind but smaller, weaker swell in the 3ft range. By Thursday the 23rd, moderate breezes from the NW have it choppy and poor.

The second week is a bit of a mixed bag with a lot of cross-on wind. The swell energy ramps up significantly—we’re seeing three-digit and even four-digit energy numbers, like 1561 on the morning of Saturday the 25th—but the wind is just never quite right. You’ll see 4ft and 5ft swells with long periods, but the cross-on breeze keeps it from being clean. The best chance in the back half might be the morning of Tuesday the 29th, where the wind is finally onshore but light, and the swell is 4ft from the SSW with a 16-second period and moderate energy at 1366. It’s “marginal” but compared to the rest, it’s the most hopeful.

The absolute standout of the whole 16-day window is Tuesday morning, July 21st. That’s your session. Everything else is a waiting game or a gamble.

Keep your eyes on the forecasts, things can change.
Rusty

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