San Carpoforo Creek Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what's shaping up for San Carpoforo Creek over the next couple of weeks. Gotta be straight with you – this is a tough stretch. The wind is almost never our friend, and the swell is mostly messy. We're looking at a long blank run ahead.

First up, let's talk about the water. On Thursday the 23rd, it's sitting at a chilly 56°F, which is 5°F colder than usual for this time of year – that's a seriously cold anomaly, so you'll want a good steamer.

Thursday the 23rd is a write-off. Morning sees a small 3ft swell from the SSE with a 13-second period, but a cross-onshore NW breeze at 9 mph has it all chopped up. The combined energy is moderate at best (548), and the call is "poor surf conditions". The afternoon gets worse – a jumbly 6ft from the WNW but with a terrible 6-second period and the wind kicking up to 16 mph. No good.

The whole first week is more of the same. Friday the 24th through to Wednesday the 30th offers waist to chest-high swell (3ft to 4ft) but it's almost always from the SSW or SW, with short to moderate periods around 16-24 seconds. The problem is that persistent cross-onshore NW wind. It stays in the 9-16 mph range, keeping everything choppy and mostly un-rideable. Scores are constantly 0 or 1 out of 10. There's a hint of hope on Thursday the 30th morning and Friday the 31st, when the wind goes light and onshore at only 6 mph, but the swell is still on the small side and the quality is only "marginal". You might get a few, but it'll be a real struggle.

We hit August with a bit more size but unfortunately no real quality. Saturday the 1st has a 5ft SSE swell in the morning, but the wind is already cross-onshore. Sunday the 2nd is a total loss with strong cross-onshore winds again. After that, the energy just drops off a cliff.

From Monday the 3rd of August onward, the combined swell energy falls into the low hundreds (361, 401, 576), with most of it being poor. The swell direction shifts more to the WNW, and the period is short (6-10 seconds), so it's weak, small, and wind-affected. There's a tiny window on Tuesday the 4th and Wednesday the 5th where the wind goes light and cross-shore with a 4ft to 5ft swell from the WNW, but the period is still mediocre (10-11 seconds). It’s only "marginal" at best.

Honestly, for the entire 16-day run, I can't point to a single standout day. The consistent cross-onshore wind just guts any potential. If you're desperate, the light wind mornings around the 30th and 31st of July or the 4th and 5th of August are your best bets, but don't expect much. The setup here, with the persistent wind and mediocre swell, looks more suited to a kite session than a paddle session right now.

Keep an eye on it; forecasts can change, but this run looks pretty bleak.

Rusty.

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