Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a good hard look at what’s coming down the pipe for Rivermouth. I gotta be straight with you – it’s a bit of a rough start with a long stretch of messy conditions, but there’s a serious, massive pulse waiting for us deep in the outlook if you’ve got the patience.

The water’s running at 60°, which is a whopping 7° colder than normal for this time of year. That’s a big deal, so you’ll want a thick suit and booties locked and loaded.

Saturday the 12th and Sunday the 13th are a write-off. The swell is weak on Saturday with a combined energy of (359) and strong easterly winds have it choppy and poor. Sunday goes nuts with a 12ft easterly swell pushing a massive (2255) combined energy, but those 19-22 mph onshore winds will ruin it. That’s kite-surf territory, not paddle surfing.

Monday the 14th is a massive tease. We’ve got a solid 12ft swell at 10 seconds from the east, and the wind is moderate cross-shore. But look, the raw data tells me the wave height is predicted to be too big for this break. The energy is extreme at (3824), but it’s just a washing machine for us. You can look, but don’t get in.

From Tuesday the 15th through to Wednesday the 23rd, it’s a long, frustrating slog. The swell hangs around in the 3ft to 7ft range, but the wind just won’t cooperate. We’re looking at a solid 8-day stretch of cross-onshore to onshore winds, and the surf quality scores are bottom of the barrel. It’s lumpy, cross-chop, and generally poor. There is a brief moment on Sunday the 27th in the afternoon where the wind swings cross-offshore and the data calls the surf “clean” – that’s the end of the road, but with a 6ft east swell at (1057), it’s solid but not the standout.

Now, the true standout is way out there, and it’s a big one. On Friday the 25th of September, a massive, very long period swell shows up. We’re talking an 12ft swell from the south, screaming in with a 17-second period and an insane combined energy of (6557). The wind is moderate cross-shore, and the conditions are favorable. However – and this is a massive however – the wave height is predicted to be too big for Rivermouth. This is a once-in-a-forecast beast, but for this spot, it's a pass. The swell direction from the south with a 17-second period is a groundswell that will be too raw and powerful for this setup. It would need a point or a reef to really shine, but Rivermouth is likely to just close out.

Honestly, within this 16-day window, there isn’t a single session I can confidently call a "must-surf" at Rivermouth. The cleanest window I see is that Sunday the 27th afternoon with the cross-offshore wind and a manageable 6ft east swell at (1057). That’s your best chance for a few decent ones, but it’s marginal. It’s a tough run, but that’s how it goes sometimes.

Rusty.

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