Pohoiki Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here, pullin’ up a chair and lookin’ at what the next couple weeks have got in store for us. Gotta be straight with you right from the top – this is a tough run to call. The outlook for Pohoiki is a real mixed bag, with a whole lot of "meh" and "nope" before we get to anything worth paddling out for.

Imperial

We’re looking at a long, quiet stretch to kick things off. From now, it’s pretty much a write-off until Friday the 17th. There’s surf on the cards, but the conditions are just plain ugly. We’ve got a persistent easterly wind, mostly cross or cross-onshore, and it’s chopping up what little energy is there. The water temp is sitting around 80°, which is pretty average for this time of year, nothing wild there. You’d be fighting a losing battle.

Friday the 17th morning is the first time we see a glimmer of anything, with a 5 ft easterly swell. But it’s still lumpy and the wind is cross-shore, so it’s a marginal call at best for a morning session.

The real story here, the only standout that’s worth getting your heart rate up for, is that run at the very end. Around Monday the 27th of July, we start seeing some real grunt. That easterly swell builds to 6 ft with a 15-second period, and the combined energy kicks right up to 1559 – that’s a solid, powerful swell. It’s not perfect, the wind is still a cross-shore breeze (12 mph), so it won’t be glassy, but there’ll be some proper, lined-up waves. This carries into Tuesday the 28th, where the swell peaks at a beefy 7 ft to 8 ft on the morning and afternoon respectively, with combined energy hitting a whopping 2246. That’s serious power. The period drops a touch to 13 and 12 seconds, but these are still proper groundswells. Now, at 8 ft, this is expert territory – if you’re not comfortable in big, shifting surf, sit this one out. For the rest of you, Pohoiki on that Tuesday afternoon is the best on offer, no question. It’s a reef break, so that long-period energy will focus up nicely, but just know it’ll have some push.

Before that, there’s a little tease of longer-period southerly energy around the 19th and 20th of July, with 3 ft at 15-18 seconds, but the energy is a fraction of what we see at the end, and the wind just doesn’t cooperate.

So, in short: you’ve got a big gap of poor to marginal conditions, then two standout, heavy days to close out the forecast. Don’t get your hopes up for the week, but circle that 27th and especially the 28th of July.

Rusty.

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