Pohoiki Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's break down what we've got cooking for the next couple of weeks. We're locked in on one spot, so the story is pretty simple.

Overall, it's a tough run. The forecast is a bit of a heartbreaker for the next week or so. We've got a real dry spell coming up, with a big gap in quality surf from now until the very end of the month.

Right now, and for many days ahead, we're dealing with a mix of strong, messy winds and short-period, choppy swell. The water temp is sitting at a warm 81°, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. But the conditions just aren't cooperating.

Let's run through the dates. We start off on Thursday the 13th of August. Afternoon sees a cross-shore breeze at 19 mph on a 4 ft south swell, but it's a long-period 15-second groundswell. The combined energy is a big 1192, but the winds are keeping it messy and lumpy. Not worth paddling out for.

Friday the 14th picks up, but don't get excited. The swell jumps to 10 ft from the east in the morning, but with a 22 mph cross-shore and rain squalls, it's blown out and ugly. By the afternoon it's hitting 13 ft with the same wind. That's way too big for beginners and only for the most experienced if they're keen on closeouts and a beating. The energy is huge – 6561 – but it's all over the place.

Saturday the 15th is a write-off. Near-gale force winds from the ENE at 31 mph on a 16 ft swell? That's not surfing, that's survival. Forget it.

Sunday the 16th calms down a bit, but the swell drops to 8 ft with a short, weak 8-second period and onshore winds. The energy is still moderate at 1155. Monday and Tuesday are flat and weak with a small 3 ft to 3 ft south swell, but still plagued by cross-shore or cross-onshore winds.

We then go into a long stretch from Wednesday the 19th right through to Tuesday the 26th of August where the swell hangs between 3 ft and 6 ft, mostly from the east, but the period stays short and the wind is consistently cross-on or onshore. The combined energy drops into the low hundreds and up to about 732 – weak to moderate at best. It's all poor or marginal surf with choppy, bumpy conditions. Kite surfers might find it more fun than paddle surfers during this period.

Now, here is the one bright spot, and it's a long way off. The standout in this entire 16-day window is Thursday the 27th of August, carrying through to Friday the 28th. We finally see a proper groundswell showing up. On Thursday morning, we've got a 5 ft swell from the east with a *very* long period of 17 seconds, and the energy is back up to 1667. The wind is still cross-onshore at 12 mph, which isn't perfect, but that long period will push through. It's a reef break (Pohoiki) that's exposed to the east, and it's best with a clean E swell direction. It's a fairly consistent little wave, though it can get crowded. The biggest and best looking session looks like Friday the 28th afternoon: an 8 ft east swell with a 15-second period and a gentler 9 mph cross-onshore breeze. The combined energy jumps to a solid 3134.

This late-week swell at the end of August is promising, but it's a long-range call, so keep an eye on it. It's the only true quality swell on the board, so if you can wait, that's your window. It's a reef setup, so that long-period energy will likely hold up better than at a beach break.

Until then, it's a waiting game.

Rusty.

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