Pohoiki Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee, sit down, and let me walk you through the next 16 days at Pohoiki. This is a reef break that's fairly consistent, but we're looking at a pretty flat and messy run for the most part. The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, so no wetsuit worries here.

The immediate outlook is a bit of a bummer. From Saturday the 29th right through to the end of the first week, we're stuck in a pattern of messy, cross-onshore winds and short-period, weak swell. The energy is mostly moderate, sitting around 400 to 500 (combined energy of all swells directed here), but the quality is just not there. It's choppy, lumpy, and not really worth paddling out for. The swell direction is all over the place, mostly from the ENE to NE, which is not the optimum E direction this spot likes.

We get a bit of a tease on the 1st of September, with a long-period, 18-second groundswell from the S showing up, but the wind is still cross and the conditions are described as poor. The energy jumps up to 921 (combined energy of all swells directed here), but it's just not clean enough. The rest of the first week stays marginal at best, with moderate cross-shore winds and the swell struggling to get organized.

Now, here's the one window that gets my heart pumping. On the 7th of September, a big, powerful swell from the ENE arrives. We're looking at 16 ft of swell! That's a serious amount of water, and the energy is a massive 6289 (combined energy of all swells directed here). The wind is cross-offshore and clean. This is a big, powerful groundswell that will be thumping into the reef. At 16 ft, this is strictly for experts only. The period is around 10-11 seconds, which is solid, but keep in mind that with this much size, it's going to be a beast. The swell direction is ENE, which is a bit off from the optimum E, but with that much energy, it'll still wrap in nicely. This is the standout day, but it's a long way out, so treat it as a promising but less certain call.

After that spike, it drops back down quickly. The 8th and 9th are back to messy, onshore winds and smaller, weaker swell. The energy drops to 504 (combined energy of all swells directed here) on the 9th, and the wind goes light and clean, but the swell is short-period and weak. The rest of the second week fades into small, wind-affected waves with energy dropping into the 200-300 range (combined energy of all swells directed here). It's a poor end to the outlook.

So, to cut a long story short: the next two weeks are mostly a write-off. The one real highlight is the 7th of September, but it's a big, raw, expert-only swell. If you're a beginner, stay home. If you're a charger, start circling that date.

Rusty

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