Pohoiki Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here.

Honestly, the next couple of weeks are a real mixed bag for Pohoiki, and not in a good way. We’ve got a lot of blown-out, messy surf on the cards before things finally clean up towards the back half of the window.

The surf starts off way too big and way too windy. This Saturday morning (15 August) we’re looking at a massive 18ft of easterly swell with a nasty near-gale cross-onshore wind. The combined energy is a thumping 6826, but it’s completely unsurfable – just a washing machine out there. That afternoon drops a bit to 16ft but it’s still blown out. This is not a paddle situation; this is a “watch from the shore” kind of day. With that size and wind, the setup at this reef looks more interesting for kite surfing than anything with a paddle.

Sunday (16 August) the swell drops to a more manageable 7ft, but it’s still cross-onshore and choppy. The period is a short 8 seconds, and the energy is down to 1092. It’s marginal at best.

From Monday (17 August) through to Friday (21 August), it’s tiny and poor. We’re looking at swell under 5ft, with short, weak periods and a lot of cross-shore or cross-onshore breeze. The energy is weak, dipping to as low as 154. There’s a small window of hope on Sunday (16 August) afternoon with some clouds, but it’s still onshore. This whole stretch is a write-off for any decent wave.

The weekend of 22-23 August sees a slight bump in size to around 5ft, but the period is still a weak 9 seconds and the wind stays cross-onshore. It’s just a lot of lumpy, average waves. Not worth getting excited about.

Things start to look more interesting towards the end of the month. On Wednesday 26 August, we get a long-period swell arriving – 19 seconds in the morning, dropping to 18 seconds by the afternoon. The swell height is only around 3-4ft, but that long period brings some real shape. The energy is moderate at 894 and 1334. The wind is still a gentle cross-onshore, so it’ll be a bit bumpy, but this is the first sign of life.

The following days, 27 through 29 August, see this long-period groundswell fill in. We’re talking 6ft to 6ft waves with a 16-18 second period, and the energy jumps right up into the 2000-2400 range. That’s proper moderate-to-strong energy. The wind is still not ideal – cross-onshore or cross-shore – but it’s lighter, and the surf is going to be much more powerful and better shaped. This is a long-period swell, and at a reef point like Pohoiki, that can be a good thing – it should hold its shape better. These are the standout days for anyone who wants a real wave, but keep in mind it’s still not totally clean.

The final day on the cards, Sunday 30 August, is the biggest of this cleaner run. The swell is up to 8ft in the morning, hitting 8ft by the afternoon, with a 12-second period. The energy is strong, hitting 3940 in the afternoon. However, the wind is a moderate cross-onshore, so it’s going to be choppy. At this size, it’s getting into expert territory, and the onshore breeze will make it a battle. Still, it’s the biggest swell of the cleaner spell. Keep an eye on it, but the morning might be the pick with slightly less wind.

For the first surf break I mention, Pohoiki’s water temp is 81°, which is about average for this time of year – nothing weird there. And just a heads-up, this spot is fairly consistent, so it’s not like it never breaks. These poor conditions are just part of the run.

So, in short: the first week is a loss. The second week, especially from the 27th to the 30th, is where you’ll find the only real surf, but it’ll still have a bit of breeze on it. The standout for quality is likely the 28th (Friday) – it’s got the size, the long period, and the energy, even if the wind is a little cross. It’s promising, but with the wind, don’t expect perfection.

Rusty.

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