Pohoiki Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s talk about what’s on the menu for Pohoiki over the next couple weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you—there isn’t a single standout session in this whole 16-day window. The forecast is a tough one. The pattern is dominated by moderate east to northeast trade winds blowing cross-shore or cross-onshore, and the wave quality is taking a hit. The first few days have a decent amount of energy in the water, but the conditions are just not cooperating.

We start on Saturday, 22 August. There’s a solid 8 ft east swell rolling in with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined swell energy is strong at 1001. But the wind is a moderate breeze from the northeast at 16 mph, blowing cross. It’s creating a lumpy cross-chop, so the surf is marginal at best. The water temp is sitting at 81°, which is about average for this time of year.

The next few days into the middle of the week—Sunday 23rd through Tuesday 25th—keep that east swell size between 6 ft and 8 ft, but the wind stays cross-on or cross from the northeast or east, at 9 to 12 mph. The energy is still moderate to strong (up to 1278), but the surface is choppy or cross-choppy. The forecast calls for rain showers or even a risk of thunderstorms on Sunday too. Just not the kind of conditions that make you want to paddle out.

By Wednesday 26th, the swell drops right off to under 3 ft, but then we get a weird shift. A very long-period groundswell from the south shows up, with periods of 18 to 20 seconds and combined energies between 480 and 618. But with the wind still in your face, it’s staying messy. Plus, that kind of long-period swell can be hard on a beach setup—it tends to suck the water out and won’t always line up cleanly at Pohoiki.

Toward the end of the first week and into the second week, from Thursday 27th August to around Monday 1st September, the south swell fades and we’re back to a smaller east swell, mostly under 3 ft, with periods dropping from 16 seconds down to 9 seconds. The wind is still not helping—mostly cross at 9 to 12 mph, sometimes cross-on. Wave energy is in the weak to moderate range (269 to 847). Conditions stay marginal or poor, with the odd day looking glassy-ish but not clean.

We go into early September—the 2nd through the 6th—and see a little bump. On Wednesday morning 2nd September, there’s a south swell with a 16-second period and combined energy up at 1022. The swell height is only 3 ft, but the wind is light cross-on from the east at 6 mph. It’s still not glassy, but that small, long-period swell with light breeze is the closest we get to something surfable—still a bit of wind ripple though.

From the 3rd to the 6th, the east swell picks back up to 5 ft to 6 ft, and on Sunday 6th September, we finally get a better wind direction. It’s a cross-offshore breeze from the north at 12 to 16 mph, with clean conditions in the morning and afternoon. Combined energies are moderate at 552 to 518. The swell period is 10 seconds with an east-northeast direction. It’s the best looking stretch in the whole run, but it’s still a marginal call—better than the rest.

So, the reality is this: there’s no day where everything clicks for a really good wave here. The first week is windy and messy, the second week is a waiting game with only slight improvement. If you’re a beginner, that swell over 5 ft on some days is going to be a handful. For the experts, nothing is breaking big and clean enough to get excited about.

Keep your eyes on that Sunday 6th September window for a possible quick paddle. Otherwise, it’s a quiet stretch. Sometimes the ocean just needs a rest.

Rusty.

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