Paea Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

We’re looking at a solid run of south-west swell hitting Paea, but the timing on the wind and conditions is going to be everything. The biggest wave energy is coming through mid-week, but it’s not all clean. Right now, the water is sitting at 79°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The stand-out window is the afternoon of Sunday the 26th. The swell is a solid 7 ft out of the SSW, with a 12-second period, giving us a combined energy of 1362. But the real kicker is the glassy conditions – wind is dead calm from the south. That’s going to make for some beautiful, clean faces. This is the one for experienced surfers, as the size is pushing into the expert zone, but for those who can handle it, the quality will be there.

Before that, we have a lot of strong, cross-off winds. Wednesday the 22nd is pumping with a 10 ft swell from the SSW, 18-second period, and a massive 4729 combined energy. The wind is a cross-off at 19 mph, so it’ll be clean but very windy. That’s big, powerful, and long-period groundswell, which will be best handled at the take-off zone. Not a beginner wave.

Thursday the 23rd is still big, with 8 ft and 7 ft swells, but the wind is still strong and offshore. It’s going to be a challenging but clean session for the experienced crew.

Moving into the next week, we get a real gem. Wednesday the 29th and Thursday the 30th of July both show excellent surf conditions. Wednesday morning has a 7 ft SW swell with a 13-second period, clean offshore winds from the NNE, and a combined energy of 1855. Thursday morning is similar, with 8 ft SW swell, 13-second period, and clean offshore winds. These are prime days – the swell is strong, the wind is perfect, and the period is just right for good shaped waves. This is a very good stretch.

The forecast does get a bit messy after that. From Friday the 31st of July onward, the wind swings more southerly and picks up, bringing in rain and cross-onshore or even windy cross-shore conditions. The swell drops off and gets a bit junky. There’s a period of a few days where the conditions are just poor, with strong, messy winds. A couple of longer-period swells pop up in early August, but the wind is just too strong and onshore to make it worthwhile for a paddle. We’re talking about a gap of poor conditions from the 1st of August through to the 6th of August, with only a few brief windows of clean but still windy surf.

Bottom line: If you can get out, the best windows are the glassy afternoon of the 26th, and the clean offshore mornings of the 29th and 30th of July. The big swells in the first few days are for the experts only.

Rusty.

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