Teahupo’o Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your boards. This is Rusty, and I’m looking at the next 16 days straight out of Teahupo’o. It’s a wild ride ahead, so let’s get into it.

The opening stretch is a shocker, to be honest. We’ve got a solid SSW groundswell building through Friday and Saturday, but it’s being torn apart by stiff, cross-onshore winds and rain. The ocean’s going to be a lumpy, messy mess out there. The wave energy is strong—we’re seeing values like 2107, 3774, and 3106 in the combined swell energy—but it’s just not translating to rideable waves. It’s all power and no shape. Honestly, for the first few days, you’d have more fun watching it than paddling out. It’s not until Wednesday the 12th that things start to shift, and even then, it’s only a hint of what’s coming.

The real magic starts on the morning of Thursday the 13th. That’s our first true standout. The wind drops to nothing—we’re talking glass—and the air is clean. Swell is still a solid 6ft from the SSW, with a long 14-second period. This is proper, heavy, grind-you-down Teahupo’o. It’s going to be perfect for the experienced crew. This is what we wait for. The energy is still strong at 1746, but now it’s clean energy.

We get a bit of a hiccup that Friday with light cross-onshore breezes and a drop in swell, but the following week brings a second pocket of promise. Around Wednesday the 20th and into Thursday the 21st, we see another SSW pulse, with swells around 6ft and a 16-second period. The wind turns offshore— ENE at 12 mph—which is exactly what you want at this place. The mornings on the 20th and 21st look particularly clean and well-shaped, with that long-period groundswell rifling down the reef. The energy’s in the 1751-1923 range, so there’s plenty of push. This is another window for the advanced surfer who knows the lineup.

The end of the period on the 22nd fades out with some cross-shore chop, but that’s it. The two standouts are clear: the glassy dawn patrol on the 13th, and the offshore mornings around the 20th and 21st. Everything else is a battle with the wind.

First mention here, the water’s sitting at 79°, which is about spot-on for this time of year, so you can keep the rubber thin.

Okay, let’s break it down. For the love of the ocean, wait out the first week. The ocean will be angry with you.

From the 7th to the 11th, it’s a write-off. Strong winds, rain, and messy, powerful surf. You’ll be fighting for your life, not riding waves.

On the 12th, it starts to improve a little, but the winds are still messy. Not worth it unless you're desperate.

Thursday morning the 13th is your first target. Glassy conditions, solid 6ft SSW swell at 14 seconds. This is the real Teahupo’o.

After a choppy Friday and a drop in size, watch for the return of the long-period SSW groundswell on Wednesday the 20th and Thursday the 21st. With offshore ENE winds, the mornings will be firing and clean. Swells around 6ft.

That’s the window. Be patient, be ready, and pick your moments. The second week looks like the better bet. Long-range forecasts are always a bit of a gamble, but these patterns look promising.

Keep it salty, and I’ll see you out there when it’s clean.

Rusty.

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