Teahupo’o Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's talk about what we've got headed our way at Teahupo’o.

Right now, the early part of the outlook is pretty average, but the real story builds into some proper heavy water later. We’ve got a solid run of swell incoming, but the wind and conditions are going to be a mixed bag, so you’ll need to pick your moments.

Starting off on Friday the 24th and through the weekend, it’s a bit of a non-starter. We’ve got a clean morning on Friday the 24th with a 1.5m (that’s about 5ft) SSW swell, but the 25 km/h (15 mph) cross-offshore NNW wind is just too strong to make it really enjoyable. The wave energy is moderate at best (960), so it’s not worth getting excited about. Later that afternoon and into Saturday the 25th, a risk of thunderstorms rolls in and the wind shifts around. Saturday morning has a 1.6m (5ft) SSW swell with the wind turning onshore from the SW at only 5 km/h (3 mph), which is glassy but the whole setup is messy with questionable tides. The combined energy jumps up (1007 through 1498), but the "marginal" call is fair.

Sunday the 26th sees building swell, hitting 2.4m (8ft) from the SSW with a period of 13 seconds, pushing the wave energy into the strong zone (1943 in the morning). But the wind is a cross-onshore from the SSE, which will chop it up. This is heavy water and only for the experienced crowd anyway, but it just won't be the clean, barreling beast we come here for.

The first real highlight pops up on Monday morning, July 28th. The swell has dropped back a bit to 1.1m (4ft) from the SSW, but the wind swings to a clean offshore NNE breeze at 25 km/h (15 mph). That’s the key. A moderate offshore wind and clean conditions on a wave this heavy mean proper shape. The period is a solid 11 seconds, which is good for Taupo’o. It then gets better into Tuesday the 29th. Tuesday morning sees the swell pick up again to 2.3m (8ft) from the SW with a 14-second period and the wind goes glassy (5 km/h / 3 mph from the NNW). That combo is rated "excellent for experienced surfers," and with a combined wave energy of 2198, there is serious power behind it. Tuesday afternoon remains glassy with the same 2.3m (8ft) and clean conditions. This is a standout. The swell direction (SW) is not the absolute optimum S, but a glassy, powerful SSW groundswell at Teahupo’o is world-class.

Now, Wednesday the 30th and Thursday the 31st are a write-off. The winds turn strong cross-onshore and onshore, pushing into a fresher breeze that will ruin the face. Wave heights stay around 1.6m (5ft) to 2.1m (7ft), but the quality is poor through the end of the month. This stretch of messy, windy conditions carries right through the first few days of August.

Then, just when you think it's over, there’s a promising but less certain run in the second week of August. Monday the 5th of August sees a very long-period groundswell (20 seconds!) from the SSW, but only 0.9m (3ft). The combined energy is high (1406) thanks to that long period, but the wind is a fresh cross-off breeze, so it'll be clean but small. By Wednesday the 7th of August, we’re into 1.5m (5ft) to 1.7m (6ft) SSW swell with a 16-second period and an offshore NNE breeze at 30 km/h (18 mph) in the afternoon. That’s clean and powerful. The real glimpse of the future comes on Saturday the 8th of August. Morning and afternoon both show a 1.9m (6ft) to 2.0m (7ft) SSW swell with a 15-second period, light offshore winds from the N and NE, and combined wave energy over 2000. The forecast calls it "excellent for experienced surfers." That’s a long way out, so it’s a promise that could break, but if it holds, that Saturday will be the pick of the whole run.

The Best of the Bunch: Tuesday the 29th of July morning and afternoon. Glassy conditions, 2.3m (8ft) SW groundswell at 14 seconds. That is as good as it gets. The Saturday the 8th of August is the long-range dream, but the Tuesday is locked in closer and has that perfect glass.

Stay safe out there, this wave commands respect.

Rusty.

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