Teahupo’o Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s dive into what’s cooking for the next couple of weeks at one of the planet’s heaviest waves.

We’re looking at a bit of a slow start for the first few days, but hold tight, because the end of the run is where this forecast gets properly fired up. The water temperature is sitting around 79°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The story starts Tuesday morning, July 28th, and honestly, it’s a bit of a tease. We’ve got a clean 4 ft SSW swell pushing in with moderate offshore winds from the North. The energy is moderate (492), and the period is a solid 11 seconds, so there are waves to be had, but the score is a bit pedestrian. The afternoon drops to 3 ft, and it’s a cross-off breeze, which keeps it clean, but it’s small. Wednesday, July 29th, sees a bump in size to 6 ft SW, but the wind swings cross-off, and the energy climbs to a strong 1019. Still, the commentary suggests it’s a bit questionable with the tide. Thursday the 30th brings rain showers and a cross-onshore wind with 7 ft to 7 ft SW swell, but that wind is going to junk it up. Friday, July 31st, through to Monday, August 4th, is pretty much a write-off. The wind is howling from the East and Southeast at 18 mph, cross or cross-off, with lumpy, choppy conditions. The size hangs around 3 ft to 5 ft, but the energy is still moderate to strong (1000+), which just means it’s messy. Not worth paddling out for.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Wednesday, August 5th, is a real glimmer of hope. The morning shows 4 ft SW swell with a clean offshore wind from the NNE, and the energy is already a punchy 701. By the afternoon, it’s a standout. The wind drops to a near-calm 3 mph offshore, the swell bumps to 6 ft SW, and the energy rockets to 1346. The commentary calls it “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” This is the one to get excited about in the short term.

But the real jewel in the crown is the following week. Thursday, August 6th, the afternoon session is looking like a monster. A 7 ft SSW swell with a 17-second period—that’s proper groundswell—and a gentle offshore breeze. The energy is a massive 3066, and the report says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” This is for the big dogs.

And then, Friday, August 7th. This is the day. The morning brings a 12 ft SSW swell with a 17-second period, clean offshore winds, and an energy reading of 7056. The report calls it “exceptional surf conditions for expert surfers.” The afternoon is even better: glassy conditions, no wind, and the same 12 ft SSW swell. This is the best on offer. This is for experts only. If you’re not comfortable in serious, heavy surf, stay on the beach and watch the show. The long period (over 15 seconds) will make this wave even more critical and powerful at the reef, so the drop is going to be serious.

The weekend after that, August 8th and 9th, turns ugly with strong onshore winds from the South and SSW, making the 8 ft plus swell a complete mess. The energy is still high, but it’s unsurfable. The following week, from August 10th to 12th, sees the energy drop and the wind shift to a cross-onshore, with the swell coming from a poor ESE direction at a short, weak 8-second period. It’s a letdown.

So, to wrap it up: the first few days are small and clean but not worth the hype. The clear standout is Friday, August 7th. The morning and afternoon are both exceptional for experts. The afternoon of Thursday, August 6th, and the afternoon of Wednesday, August 5th, are also solid options for experienced surfers.

Rusty out.

Read more