Teahupo’o Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it for Teahupo’o. We’ve got a solid run of south swell energy on the way, but it’s not all clean sailing. The first few days are a write-off for quality surfing, but patience will pay off later in the week.

The pattern kicks off with a big, powerful, but messy swell. Monday the 20th sees a solid 7ft to 8ft SSW groundswell, with a very long period of 21 to 22 seconds. The combined energy is massive (5408 to 6092), but the wind is a cross-shore from the ESE and SE, blowing at 15 to 18 mph, turning the reef into a lumpy, cross-chop mess. It’s not the day to paddle out. Tuesday the 21st stays similar, with the swell holding around 8ft from the SSW, but the period drops to 17-18 seconds. The wind is still a strong cross-shore, so the conditions remain poor. The swell is big, over 8ft, so this is expert territory only, but the wind is the real killer.

Wednesday the 22nd is where things start to turn. The wind shifts to a cross-offshore from the east, blowing at 18 to 22 mph. The swell is still a solid 8ft to 10ft from the SSW. The combined energy is still high (4849 to 5362), and the wind cleans the wave face up. This is a big, powerful day. The size is pushing into expert-only territory, but the clean conditions make it a serious standout for those with the skill and the nerve. Thursday keeps the clean cross-off wind, with the swell easing slightly from 8ft down to 7ft from the SSW. The period remains long at 16 seconds. The combined energy is still strong (3213 to 2595). It’s still a heavy wave, but the conditions are fantastic.

Friday the 24th is the real sweet spot. The swell is still a meaty 5ft from the SSW in the morning, dropping to 4ft in the afternoon. The period is still a long 14 to 15 seconds. The wind is finally offshore from the NNE, blowing at 12 to 18 mph. The combined energy is moderate (1083 dropping to 738), but the forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” The smaller size and offshore wind make this the most accessible day for strong intermediate surfers willing to charge. The wave will be clean and perfect.

Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th see the swell drop to a more manageable 3ft to 7ft. Saturday morning is clean with a light cross-off breeze, but by Sunday afternoon, the wind goes glassy (3 mph from the SSE), and the forecast reads “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” The combined energy is moderate (1415), and a 7ft glassy wave at Teahupo’o is a dream scenario for the experts.

The second week gets dicey. From Monday the 27th onward, the wind turns onshore, on, or cross-on, and the quality falls off a cliff. The swell fades and then tries to rebuild, but the wind is a mess. A pulse of 7ft to 7ft SSW swell arrives on the 30th and 31st, but it’s accompanied by strong cross-shore winds, making it a lumpy, unappealing prospect. Another pulse of 7ft S swell arrives on Sunday the 2nd of August, but the wind is screaming cross-off at 22 to 25 mph, which is too strong for clean surfing. The guidance says these are poor or marginal conditions. The last record on the 4th of August shows a 7ft SW swell with a strong cross-off wind, but it’s hard to get excited about the combination.

The Standout: Without a doubt, Friday the 24th of July is the pick of the forecast. The combination of a solid 4ft to 5ft SSW groundswell, a long 14 to 15 second period, and clean, moderate offshore wind from the NNE will deliver the best quality waves for the widest range of capable surfers. It’s the day to book off work.

Honorable Mention: For the hardcore crew, Sunday the 26th of July afternoon offers a glassy 7ft wave, but it’s for experts only.

Rusty.

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