Teahupo’o Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, looking at the next couple of weeks for us. Let’s get straight into it.

First up, the water temp is sitting at 79°F – that’s pretty much dead average for the time of year, so nothing out of the ordinary there.

The early part of the week is a bit of a write-off, to be honest. Monday and Tuesday have some swell, but the conditions are just not coming together. The wind is mostly cross-off or cross, and the forecast is pretty average. We’re looking at a combined swell energy around 893 (moderate) on Monday morning, dropping through Tuesday, but the quality just isn't there for a proper session. Wednesday morning shows a bit more promise with a clean 6ft SSW swell and a 12-second period, and the energy is up to 960 (moderate). It’s okay, but not a standout.

Now, Thursday (30th July) gets messy. The wind swings onshore for the morning and it gets choppy, with a 6ft to 7ft swell, but the combined energy is strong (1117 to 1199). The conditions are poor, though. That trend continues into the weekend with fresh cross-shore winds and lumpy conditions, making it a struggle.

We’ve got a real gap here from the end of July right through until the start of August. There’s a solid 5 to 6 days of nothing really worth getting excited about.

Then, things look up. On Wednesday, 5th August, the morning is clean with a 4ft SSW groundswell (13 secs) and light offshore winds. The combined energy is 861 (moderate). But the real standout is the afternoon of the 5th. The wind drops to a slight air, with a clean 6ft SSW swell and a 13-second period. The combined energy jumps to 1822 (strong). That’s a beautiful setup for an experienced surfer, and the wave comment says excellent conditions.

The next few days, the 6th, 7th, and 8th, keep the quality high with strong energy readings (2622, 2926, 2050) and clean conditions. The swell direction stays SSW, and the period is long (15-18 seconds), which is a proper groundswell. This is the kind of long-period energy that can break a bit straight at beach breaks, but at a reef like this, it’s going to be a freight train. The crowd factor is listed as "often" here, so expect company, but it’ll be worth it.

The end of the outlook gets a bit spicy. On the 10th of August, the swell is pushing 10ft, with a steady 15-second period. The combined energy is a massive 4018 (very strong). This is expert territory, way over 8ft. The wind is cross-off, but the conditions are marginal. Then, on the morning of 11th August, everything aligns. The wind goes glassy, the swell is 10ft from the SSW with a 14-second period, and the combined energy is 3783 (very strong). The wave comment says "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers". This is the one. The entire window is building to this moment. The afternoon drops off a bit with a cross-off wind, but that morning window is the prize.

So, to sum it up: the next week is average to poor. The real magic starts on the 5th of August and runs through the 8th, with the absolute peak being the glassy morning of the 11th. Keep your eyes on that.

Rusty.

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