Rocky Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s talk about what’s coming up for Rocky Point.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you—this is a tough stretch. The next week and a half is mostly a write-off. We’re looking at a long, dry gap with no real surf to speak of from now until about the middle of next week. The wave energy is just not there, and when it does show up, the wind is going to ruin it.

For the first few days, Thursday the 6th through Saturday the 9th, the swell is tiny and weak, with combined energy barely cracking 100 (87 to 213). The wind is howling from the south-east, keeping things messy or blown out. There’s just nothing to get excited about.

We finally see a pulse of swell building from Monday the 10th through Wednesday the 12th, with heights around 6 ft to 7 ft from the east and east-southeast. The combined energy gets into the moderate range (319 to 755), but the wind is still a serious problem—strong breeze to near gale from the south-east. That’s not surfable for a point break like Rocky Point. It’s going to be a choppy, messy mess.

Now, I’ll tell you where it gets interesting. Thursday the 13th is the one standout in this whole 16-day window. The morning shows a 6 ft east swell with a period of 9 seconds, and for the first time, the wind goes glassy—light south-east at 3 mph. The combined energy is strong (557). The comment says “expect very good surf conditions,” and that’s the only time we see that. The water temperature is 80°, which is about 1° above normal, so nothing wild there. But listen, Rocky Point is a reef and point break that is fairly consistent, and it’s exposed to the north-northeast. This east swell is a little off its optimum direction, but with glassy conditions, it’ll still produce clean, fun waves. The afternoon holds up, too, with a 5 ft glassy wave from the ENE, though it’s a bit smaller. Crowds are possible here, so get there early.

After that, it’s all downhill again. From Friday the 14th all the way through to the end of the forecast on the 21st, the swell drops back to tiny, weak, and the wind is back onshore from the south-east. The combined energy sinks below 200 for most of it, and it’s all “poor surf conditions.” There’s a few glassy mornings on the 19th and 20th, but the swell is only 2 ft, so you’re barely getting a ripple.

So, the only real window is Thursday the 13th. That’s your best bet. The rest is a long, quiet spell. Hang in there, the forecasts can change, but for now, mark that Thursday.

- Rusty

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