Taapuna Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve had a look at what’s cooking for our local reef. To be honest, the first week or so looks like a bit of a dud for a decent paddle. The wind is blowing from the wrong direction and messing up what could be some solid swell. We’ve got a long wait, but there might be a tiny window later on.

The forecast starts on Tuesday, 14th July, but it’s not worth getting wet. Taapuna is showing a solid 8ft swell from the SSW with a period of 12 seconds, and the combined energy is strong at 2884. But the wind is a 16 mph SW breeze, which is onshore and just ruining everything. No score for that. The water is at 80°, which is pretty average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

We then go through a long, frustrating stretch. Wednesday the 15th, Thursday the 16th, all the way through to the end of the month, it’s the same story. The swell is there, sometimes sizeable, but the wind is almost always cross-onshore, choppy, or lumpy. The best the forecast can manage is a “marginal” call, and that’s just not worth paddling out for. The wind shifts a bit on the 22nd and 23rd, going cross-offshore and clean, but the wave state is still only rated as marginal, and the wind is howling at 25 mph. That’s not a surf session, that’s a survival session.

The energy really cranks on Monday the 20th, with a 22-second period swell showing up, which is that very long-period groundswell. The combined energy hits 3306, but with a 4ft cross-onshore wave, it’s not going to be clean. Then on Tuesday the 21st, we get a 10ft SSW swell with a 18-second period and a massive 4859 combined energy, but the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-shore, making it lumpy. This is a big, powerful, and angry ocean. For a reef like Taapuna, it’s an expert-only situation, and even then, the conditions are so poor it’s not recommended.

By the end of the month, on the 28th and 29th, the wind is still a near-gale at 31 mph, but it’s coming from the ESE, which is cross-offshore and clean. The swell is around 6ft to 7ft from the S and SSE, with periods around 10 to 12 seconds. The energy readings are moderate (1600-1700), but the wind is just too strong to make it a pleasant paddle. The surf comment says “poor surf conditions,” and I have to agree. It’s simply too windy to be good.

There is no standout session in this 16-day window. The whole period is one long gap of poor to marginal conditions. The best chance for a wave is a gamble, and the forecasts are not confident enough to call it. For now, it’s a waiting game, but with this much swell energy around, it tends not to stay poor for long. Keep an eye on the charts, because a shift in the wind is all it would take.

Rusty.

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