Motuau Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m not gonna beat around the bush—this is a rough run for Motuau Island. The whole 16-day window is a write-off for any decent paddle surfing. There’s nothing on offer that’s worth paddling out for, and the conditions just won’t line up. The setup is a reef break, but with the swell being so tiny and the wind often howling, it’s a real shame. The forecast is pretty consistent in its mediocrity, so this blank run is unfortunately normal for the area right now.

We start off Wednesday the 15th into the weekend with tiny 0.7ft swell from the ENE, with a short period of 8 seconds. The wind is offshore from the S, but the wave energy is laughably weak (6–12), and the surf is labeled as poor. It’s like trying to surf a puddle. Thursday the 16th and Friday the 17th see a shift to a long-period WNW groundswell at 15–16 seconds, but the height is still only 0.7ft (energy 27–32). That long period on a reef with no size is just a tease. Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th are similar, with the swell dropping to 0.7ft and the wind turning cross-offshore from the SE. By Sunday afternoon, there’s zero energy.

The next week isn’t any better. Monday the 20th sees a tiny bump to 2ft–2ft from the E, with a period of just 5–6 seconds, but the wind is cross-offshore and the energy is still weak (20–32). Tuesday the 21st brings a 4ft east swell, period 6 seconds, and the energy climbs to 104–110, but the wind is a fresh cross-offshore from the ESE at 30–35 km/h, and the surf is still poor. Things get a bit more interesting on Wednesday the 22nd with a 5ft east swell and 6-second period, and energy up to 178. The wind is a strong breeze from the E at 40 km/h, making for a strong cross-shore chop. That’s not a surf setup; that’s a kite surfer’s dream. The combination of significant swell, strong wind, and a reef that’s getting messy cross-chop means it’s far more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Thursday the 23rd is similar, with a 5ft east swell and a risk of t-storms, onshore NNE wind, and energy at 196. Still poor.

The tail end of the forecast from Saturday the 25th to Sunday the 26th offers a glimmer of hope, but it’s not enough. On Saturday the 25th, a 3ft ENE swell with a period of 9 seconds and energy of 116 shows up, with a cross-offshore SW wind at 35 km/h. It’s clean, but the surf is still poor. Then on Sunday the 26th afternoon, we finally get a label of “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions” with a 3ft ENE swell, 8-second period, and moderate offshore wind from the S (energy 84). It’s the only session in the whole 16 days that isn’t called “poor,” but it’s a score of 1 out of 10—barely worth the walk. After that, Monday the 27th onwards drops back into tiny, weak swell with poor conditions.

So, to sum it up: there are no standouts. The best you’ll get is a very ordinary session on Sunday the 26th afternoon with 3ft waves and clean offshore wind, but don’t expect much. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, so at least you won’t be freezing while you’re sitting there waiting for nothing. For now, give the board a rest and check back later—forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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