Te Araroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at the next couple of weeks at Te Araroa.

First up, don’t get too excited just yet. Tuesday the 4th and Wednesday the 5th are pretty much a write-off. Tiny little nothing waves, poor conditions, not worth paddling out for. The combined swell energy is just 23 and 28, so it’s weak. We’ve got a gap of a couple of days here with no real action.

Thursday the 6th starts to show a flicker of life. The water temp is sitting at 60°, which is about average for this time of year. Thursday morning is small, about 1 foot from the SE, but with a long 16-second period, and the energy is only 43 – still weak. Thursday afternoon gets a little better: 2 feet from the SE on a 14-second period, combined energy hits 100, and the wind goes glassy. That’s clean, but it’s still tiny.

Now, Friday the 7th morning is where things start to look good. Swell jumps to 5 feet from the SE, period 12 seconds, and the combined energy is a solid 591. The wind is glassy – south at 31 mph. That’s clean, glassy surf. This is a real highlight. The break is a beach and point setup, exposed to the NE, but the SE swell matches up fine. It’s a consistent spot, so it’s not a one-hit wonder. Crowds are never an issue here, which is a bonus. The water is still about average temp. This is the best on offer early on.

That afternoon, wind swings NW at 15 mph, cross-shore, and the quality drops a bit. Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th are messy – cross-winds, short period, and that Sunday afternoon gets to 8 feet from the NNW but with a woeful 7-second period and a 598 combined energy. That’s a lot of lumpy, short-period junk.

Monday the 10th sees some solid size – 8 feet from the NNW in the morning, 9-second period, and the combined energy is 1138 – that’s strong. But it’s raining, the wind is onshore, and it’s marginal. Not clean. That size is getting into the “too big for beginners” territory, and with the onshore wind, it’s not ideal.

The next standout is Wednesday the 12th afternoon. Glassy again, south wind at 5 mph, 5 feet from the SE on an 11-second period, combined energy of 605. That’s clean, good surf, and a solid call. Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th mornings also have glassy or light wind with 3 to 4 feet SE swell, periods around 10 seconds, and good energy (345 to 335). Those are worth a look.

Now, the second week gets a bit wild. Saturday the 15th gets messy with rain and cross-onshore wind, but the swell is 8 feet in the afternoon. Not clean.

From Sunday the 16th onwards, things get serious. The swell pumps up to 13 to 15 feet, with periods of 9 to 12 seconds, and the combined energy hits massive numbers – 3517, 2410, 3438, 9787, 4517, 9816, 3691, 4922. That’s very strong, enormous wave energy. The wind is cross-off or glassy, so it’ll be clean. But here’s the thing: the forecast says this is too big for the break. At 13 to 15 feet, that’s expert-only territory, and even then, it’s likely just a washing machine. For a beach and point setup, that size with long period (11-12 seconds) is going to be a monster. Honestly, that setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The swell is too big for a safe, fun paddle session.

So, the standout window is Friday the 7th morning, and then Wednesday the 12th afternoon through to Friday the 14th morning. The rest is either too small, too messy, or too big. Long-range on the 16th and beyond is promising but less certain, and frankly, it’s probably going to be too much for most.

Rusty.

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