Te Araroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what’s cooking at Te Araroa over the next couple of weeks. This is a beach and point setup that’s consistent and rarely crowded – never any crowds here – and it’s exposed, so it grabs whatever swell comes its way. The water’s running a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, about 62°F, which is a nice bonus.

The first few days are pretty grim. Tuesday the 14th and Wednesday the 15th are all poor – cross-onshore junk, rain showers, nothing worth paddling out for. Thursday the 16th stays marginal at best, with a weak little ESE swell and a messy cross-shore. But then things turn around.

Friday the 17th is the real standout. Clear skies, glassy conditions – I’m talking dead calm, offshore light – and a nice 6 ft groundswell from the ESE, with a long 16-second period. That’s proper energy heading into the break: combined swell energy sitting at 1441 (moderate-strong). The waves will be clean, well-shaped, and with that long period you’ll get plenty of time between sets to paddle back out. This is expert territory though – that size and power mean it’s not for beginners. If you’ve got the skills, this is your window.

Saturday the 18th drops off a bit – still some swell (5 ft SE, 15s) but a cross-shore breeze and a drop in energy (1045). Sunday the 19th sees a brief return of clean offshore wind in the morning with 4 ft SE, but the afternoon gets blown out. Monday and Tuesday the 20th–21st are marginal, small waist-high leftovers.

Then Wednesday the 22nd brings a fresh pulse – 6 ft from the ENE, short 7-second period, but the winds are clean and the energy jumps to 502. It’s not perfect but worth a look if you’re desperate.

Hold on tight – Thursday the 23rd through Saturday the 25th is a beast of a swell. We’re talking 13 ft to 21 ft from the NNE/NE, period around 11–12 seconds, and combined energy values shooting into the thousands (4104, 6029, even 11367). That’s massive. But it’s cross-onshore and lumpy, and the size makes it way too big for this break – unless you’re after a kite session. Honestly, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing during those days. Sunday the 26th stays big (12 ft) but cross-shore and messy.

By Monday the 27th the swell drops back to 7 ft ENE, still a bit cross-onshore, but Tuesday the 28th delivers another solid window: 8 ft from the NW, 7–8 second period, clean cross-offshore winds, and combined energy over 1000. That’s excellent for experienced surfers – powerful, clean, and consistent. Again, that size (8 ft) is expert-only.

After that, Wednesday the 29th fades to small and mediocre.

So, bottom line: Friday the 17th is your best bet – glassy, quality groundswell, and all to yourself. Tuesday the 28th is a close second if you can handle the size. The rest of the window is either blown out, too small, or dangerously big. Keep an eye on the forecasts, but this place can surprise you.

Rusty.

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