Te Araroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what Te Araroa has in store for us. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, so let’s get into it.

We’re kicking off the forecast period on Monday the 7th, but honestly, we might as well be looking at a lake. That afternoon we’ve got a messy 10-foot NW swell with a short 8-second period, smacked by a 30 km/h cross-shore wind. The combined swell energy is a low 982, and conditions are plain ugly. Don’t even bother.

The first real glimmer of hope hits on Tuesday morning the 8th. We’ve got a clean 7-foot swell from the NNW, period stretching to a nice 9 seconds, and best of all, a gentle 15 km/h offshore wind from the SSW. This is what we wait for. The water temp is sitting at 15°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year. The conditions will be clean, and the point should offer up some proper lines. This is the standout session of the first week.

That offshore flow holds into Tuesday afternoon with a still-clean 6-foot swell. Wednesday the 9th drops off fast, with a tiny 3-foot swell and weak energy (99), just surfable but nothing to write home about. The rest of that week and into the weekend is a write-off. From Wednesday afternoon right through to Monday the 14th, we’re looking at a long stretch of flat, poor conditions with tiny ankle-biters below 2 feet. The combined energy readings are barely a whisper, well below 100. There’s a glassy morning on Monday the 14th, but with only 1-foot on offer, it’s a flat spell and nothing more.

Now, the second week gets interesting, but with some serious caveats. Wednesday morning the 16th sees a massive pulse of 12-foot NW swell, but the period is a short 8 seconds and it’s blowing 30 km/h cross-shore. The energy is huge at 1274, but the report says this is just too big for this break, and I’d agree. It’s likely a washing machine for all but the most experienced, and even then, it’s a battle. Then Friday the 18th throws another big one at us: a 13-foot NNW swell with a better 9-second period on Friday afternoon. The energy reading is massive at 2157, but again, it’s flagged as too big for this break. That lumpy cross-shore won't help either.

Saturday the 19th stays big but clean, with a 10-foot NNW swell and a cross-offshore breeze, making it a cleaner but still expert-only zone. Then we get to Sunday morning the 20th. This is the real second-week standout. The wind goes dead calm, glassy as glass, and we have a clean 6-foot N swell with a 9-second period. The energy is a solid 447. That’s the magic window for Te Araroa. The point will be working with those conditions. Get on it.

Monday the 21st sees another big spike but from the East, with an 8-foot swell and a 12-second period. The energy jumps to 2077, but the wind is light and cross-shore. Tuesday the 22nd is just too big again: a 13-foot ESE swell with that same long 12-second period, but it’s clocked as too big. By then the energy is astronomical, over 9000, but for paddle surfing, that’s a miss.

So, to sum it up: Tuesday morning the 8th is your first real shout. Sunday morning the 20th is your second-week target. Everything else is either flat, messy, or simply too big for a good time here. Keep your eyes on those two windows.

Rusty.

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