Te Araroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get straight into it. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty average for Te Araroa, but there are a couple of windows where it might just fire. Don’t get too excited about the immediate forecast though, because we’ve got a bit of a flat spell to start.

The water temp is sitting right around that 58° mark, which is pretty much normal for this time of year. No crazy swings there, so you can just grab the usual steamer.

The first few days are a real write-off. We’re looking at tiny, weak surf with a short-period SE swell that just doesn’t have any push. Thursday the 27th has a glassy morning but still only 1ft, so it’s more of a pool day than a paddle-out. Friday and the weekend have some more size, but it's mostly onshore and messy. Saturday the 29th sees it jump to 5ft and 7ft, but it’s a short-period NW windswell and the wind is howling onshore. The combined energy gets up to 399 by Saturday afternoon, but it’s all just chop and bumps. Not worth the effort for a paddle board.

We get a tiny breather on Sunday the 30th. The morning looks clean with a cross-off wind, and there’s 5ft of swell coming from the N. It’s a bit of a mess energy-wise at 272, and the period is only 8 seconds, so it’s not sorted – but it’s the first time it looks like you could actually catch one. Monday the 31st is clean too, but it’s only 2ft and pretty ordinary. Not a stand-out by any means.

Then we drop right back off. Tuesday the 1st and Wednesday the 2nd are tiny, and the wind picks up to 30 km/h with a strong cross-shore that just ruins what little is left. This stretch is flat and blown out, so you’re not missing much. That brings us into the second week. The middle of the week is still small, but towards the weekend the swell shows up.

The first real standout is Friday the 4th into Saturday the 5th. The swell jumps to 7ft and 8ft, but the wind is fresh and cross-shore, making it a lumpy mess. The energy is strong, hitting 671 on Friday afternoon, but it’s not clean. It’s more of a power period than a quality one.

Now, the one to mark on your calendar. Sunday the 6th has a clean morning with a cross-off wind and 6ft of swell. It won’t be perfect – the period is only 6 seconds – but it’s the best mix of size and clean conditions we’ve seen. Then Monday the 7th, hold onto your board because it’s going to be big. We’re talking 15ft to 16ft of raw, powerful NW swell with the combined energy spiking to 4485. That’s very strong. But, and it’s a big but, the wind is a strong cross-onshore at 40-45 km/h. That’s going to be a complete mess. Only for the gnarliest out there.

The real gem is Tuesday the 8th. The forecast is for 12ft of NW swell with a period of 9 seconds. The wind is fresh cross-shore, but the forecast really suggests it’s going to be too big for the break. That's when the reef might start to handle it, but for the beach, it'll be shutting down.

The final nod goes to Wednesday the 9th afternoon. The swell is still a solid 8ft from the NW, and the wind swings to a light cross-off at 15 km/h. This is looking like the cleanest, most surfable day of the whole run. Energy is strong at 499, but the conditions will be good. Thursday the 10th has another huge spike, 12ft, but the wind goes light onshore, and again, it's probably too big. Then it just falls off a cliff back to near-flat.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a bust. Don't even bother looking at it. The standout is Wednesday the 9th with clean 8ft NW swell, and to a lesser extent, Sunday the 6th's clean 6ft morning. Tuesday the 8th and Thursday the 10th have the size, but it's likely too much for the spot. It’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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