Te Araroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I’ve had a good look at the charts for Te Araroa. Let me tell you what’s cooking.

Honestly, the first week is a bit of a write-off. We’ve got a long stretch of tiny, weak swell and poor conditions. The water is sitting at 60°, which is about average for this time of year – nothing to write home about. From August 3rd right through the 6th, we’re looking at waves that are barely a ripple, with a few small 1.0ft pulses from the NE but with hardly any energy behind them. The wind is mostly offshore or cross-offshore, so the ocean is clean, but there’s just nothing to ride. It’s a frustrating wait.

Friday, August 7th is the first real spark. The morning brings a 4ft SE swell, and the wave energy starts to show some life (350). The wind is light and cross-off from the W, so it should be clean. This is the first morning you’d actually want to paddle out. The swell period is a short 10 seconds, so it’s not groundswell, but it’s a start.

We get a bit of a pulse on Saturday, August 8th, but the wind swings WNW and gets cross and a bit stronger. The swell builds to 7ft by the afternoon, but the period drops to a pathetic 5-6 seconds. That’s a lot of chop and not much shape. The energy is moderate (348), but it’s going to be messy.

The standout in the first week is Sunday, August 9th. Get this – glassy conditions. The wind is near zero from the WSW, swinging to WNW. The swell is 6ft in the morning and 5ft in the afternoon, coming from the NW with a short period of 7-8 seconds. The energy is solid (352). This is your best bet for the first week. It’s clean, it’s fun, and it’s not too big. Not for beginners though, as it’s over 5ft.

After that, we hit another flat spell from the 10th to the 11th, with tiny 2ft-3ft swell and very low energy.

Then things get gnarly. From Wednesday, August 12th, a big NW swell starts to build, but it’s accompanied by rain and strong onshore winds from the NE. The swell hits 8ft with energy at 688, but the wind is howling onshore. This is a mess. This pattern continues through the 14th, with the wind getting up to 25 mph and heavy rain. This is kite surfing territory, not paddle surfing.

Saturday, August 15th is where it gets interesting again. The swell drops a bit to 7ft, but the wind goes light and variable, turning glassy in the afternoon. The energy is strong (599). This is a proper session, but it’s sizeable. For experienced surfers only.

The big one is Sunday, August 16th. The swell is predicted to be 12ft in the morning, building to 13ft from the NNE with a long period of 9 seconds. The energy is massive (1775 and 2541). The wind is light offshore in the morning. However, this is too big for Te Araroa. It’s estimated to be too big for the break. This is for experts only, and even then, it’s a big call. The swell direction is NNE, and the optimum for this spot is NE, so it’s a bit off. This is promising but less certain this far out.

The swell holds through the 17th and 18th, with 10ft waves, but the wind goes cross-shore, making it less clean. By Tuesday the 18th, the swell drops to 5ft-6ft from the ENE, with a long period (10 seconds) and light cross-offshore winds. That’s a good, solid, late window.

So, the best on offer? Sunday, August 9th for the glassy, clean conditions and fun size. And for the bold, keep an eye on Saturday, August 15th for the glassy afternoon and solid swell. The big stuff on the 16th is a monster, but it’s for the brave.

Rusty.

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