Te Araroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here again. Let’s not sugarcoat it – the next couple of weeks at Te Araroa look dead. This beach and point break needs a solid NE groundswell to get going, and we just aren't seeing it. The water is 59°F, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so no drama there. But the surf? Barely a pulse.

From Sunday the 23rd through to Thursday the 27th, it’s tiny. We're looking at 1ft of weak ESE swell with a 13 second period, and the combined energy is stuck in the low 20s and 30s – that’s weak energy, plain and simple. There’s a glassy window on Monday morning the 24th and a totally calm Thursday afternoon the 27th with 1ft, but that's not surf, that's a lake. You’d be wasting your time.

Friday the 28th brings a shift in the wind – NW at 19-25 mph, switching to a cross-onshore. The size bumps up to 5ft on the Friday afternoon, but it’s a junky 5 second wind swell from the NW, all wrong for this place. The energy rises to 129, but it’s lumpy and chopped up. Saturday the 29th gets a bit bigger – 5ft with energy at 268 – but it’s still a messy NW wind swell with some rain. This isn’t paddle surfing; it’s survival. If you’ve got a kite, that might be more fun.

Then it goes flat again. Through the 30th and into the first week of September, we see 1ft to 2ft of NE swell with a 10 to 11 second period, but the energy is in the 20s and 40s. It’s all cross-shore wind and barely breaking. Day after day, same story: small, weak, and uninspiring. This flat spell drags on and on.

Now, the one glimmer on the horizon: around Saturday the 5th of September, we get a real pulse of NW swell. The size jumps to 8ft, with energy at 626, and then it really winds up – 10ft on Sunday the 6th with a huge 1360 energy reading. That’s strong wave energy, no doubt. But here’s the catch – the period is only 7 to 8 seconds, and it’s coming from the NW, which is cross to this break. The wind is also cross-shore at 12 to 16 mph. So while it’s big, it’s going to be a lumpy, closing-out mess. 10ft of short-period, cross-shore slop is strictly for experts, and even then, it’s marginal. A real shame, because if that energy had come from the NE with a longer period, we’d be talking about a classic. As it is, it’s a lot of water moving the wrong way.

It fades back to nothing by Monday the 7th – 1ft of ENE wind swell. So, bottom line: there’s nothing in the next two weeks I’d call a standout. The little NE pulses are too weak, and the one big NW event is too messy. It’s a blank run, for sure. But this spot is consistent, so it usually bounces back. Keep an eye on the charts, because when that NE groundswell finally lines up with the wind, Te Araroa will light up. Until then, I’m giving the board a rest.

Rusty.

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