Te Araroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it for Te Araroa.

We’ve got a 16-day window, and it’s a classic East Coast story—a bit of a slow start, then the energy really builds. The first few days will test your patience, but the back half of the run has some serious potential.

Friday morning the 10th is a write-off. We’ve got light rain and a strong 25 mph SSE wind blowing cross-off. The surf is a weak 3 ft from the east, carrying a combined energy of just 179. It’s clean, but there’s no power behind it. The water is a touch warmer than normal at 62°.

Friday afternoon the swell jumps to 10 ft from the SE, with a massive jump in energy to 1903, but the wind is still a fresh 22 mph cross-off. The conditions are marginal, it’s messy, and the tide is likely making things tricky. Not a great time to be out there.

Saturday morning the 11th is where things start to get interesting. We have a clean 7 ft SE groundswell, with a solid offshore southerly breeze at 16 mph. The energy is strong at 860. The score here is a standout, and it’s the first real window for a session. The waves will be a bit punchy for beginners at that size, but for the rest of us, it’s a go. Saturday afternoon holds with 8 ft, though the wind swings cross-off and the quality drops off a touch.

Sunday the 12th is a mixed bag. The morning is clean but the 5 ft swell is a bit gutless. The afternoon has that same size but with a better feel, and the energy is up to 725. It’s surfable, but nothing to write home about.

Monday the 13th is a weird one. The morning is glassy, absolutely still wind, with a tiny 3 ft swell. It’s clean, but small. The afternoon dies completely with a light cross-on breeze.

From Tuesday the 14th through Thursday the 16th, we hit a flat spell. The swell drops to under 3 ft, and the wind is messy. There’s simply nothing worth paddling out for. A solid gap of about three days with no real recommendations.

Then, Friday the 17th kicks off the main event. A very long-period SE groundswell of 16 seconds rolls in, delivering 7 ft of clean, lined-up surf. The combined energy is 1893—strong and powerful. The wind is a light 9 mph south cross-off, keeping the faces smooth. This is the standout of the whole forecast. The period is long, so it’ll be more walled up at the beach, but the point setup at Te Araroa should handle it beautifully. Expect clean, powerful waves.

Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th keep the energy going, with 6 ft and 5 ft swells, but the wind strengthens to 16 mph cross-off, making it a bit bumpier. Still surfable, but not as clean as Friday.

Monday the 20th sees a fresh 22 mph cross-off as the swell jumps to 10 ft. The energy is 2273. It’s big, it’s windy, and it’s getting messy. A tough one to manage.

Tuesday the 21st is a no-go. The swell hits 15 ft from the NE, with a massive 4389 energy. The forecast says it’s simply too big for this break. Leave it for the experts or the kite crew.

Wednesday the 22nd stays big and ugly. 13 ft from the east, with a moderate cross-shore breeze. The energy is 3144. Again, too big and too choppy for a good paddle session.

Thursday the 23rd drops to 8 ft, but the wind is onshore and choppy. Not recommended.

Friday the 24th and Saturday the 25th are a write-off with onshore winds and rain. The swell is still 7-10 ft, but the quality is poor.

So, the one true standout is Friday morning the 17th—it’s a solid, clean, powerful groundswell with light offshore winds. That’s your window. The second best is Saturday morning the 11th, with the clean offshore breeze and a solid 7 ft. Don’t bother with the rest until the big stuff cleans up.

Rusty.

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