Te Araroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, here's the outlook for Te Araroa for the next couple of weeks.

We’re in for a mixed bag, but there are a few windows of proper fun surf. The big news is the consistent, clean groundswell that rolls in this weekend, though a fair bit of wind is going to make things interesting. Let's break it down.

The first real action is Saturday the 11th. We’ve got a solid 7ft to 8ft SE swell pushing in with 9-second periods, giving us moderate wave energy (792 and 1434). The problem is the southerly wind. Saturday morning it’s a 16 mph offshore, which will keep the peak at the point clean and lined up, but it’s a fresh breeze. By the afternoon it swings cross-offshore, still surfable but a bit messier. This is gonna be a grunty day, not one for the groms at over 5ft. The water temp is pretty average for this time of year, nothing special.

Sunday the 12th eases off a touch with a 5ft to 5ft SE swell, and the wind drops to a gentle breeze. That morning is offshore and you’ll find clean, fun waves. The energy is back to moderate (334 and 644), so it’s a proper surf day. This is the pick of the weekend for most skill levels.

Monday the 13th offers a brief lull. The morning is glassy with a tiny 3ft ESE swell, and the energy is weak (150). It’d be a cruise, but not a standout. The afternoon turns onshore and choppy, so forget it.

Then we hit a bit of a dry spell. From Tuesday the 14th through to Wednesday the 15th, it’s a mix of onshore and cross-shore winds with weak, short-period swell. The energy stays low (under 200), and the wave quality is poor. Thursday the 16th is also small, but the afternoon shows a pulse of very long period 15-second groundswell from the ESE at 3ft, energy of 312. It’s clean but weak.

Now, the real standout of this outlook is Friday the 17th. Friday morning is absolutely pristine. We have a glassy, calm sea state, and a 5ft ESE groundswell with a solid 15-second period. That’s a very long period, which means long walls and plenty of power. The energy jumps to 1065, which is strong. Because it’s a point break setup, this long-period groundswell will be a dream – long, racy lines. This is excellent for experienced surfers; it’s a little heavy for beginners at that size, but for anyone who knows what they’re doing, it’s the best session of the whole forecast. The wind is non-existent, so it will be clean as a whistle.

Saturday the 18th is still worth a look with a 4ft ESE groundswell and a lighter wind, but not as perfect.

From Sunday the 19th onwards, things get blown out. A strong southerly breeze kicks in (25-28 mph) and while the surf is clean in the sense of no waves getting chopped, the wind is howling. It’s a cross-offshore, but that strength is just miserable. The energy is moderate to strong, but you’ll be fighting the wind more than riding the waves. The swell hangs around through to Wednesday the 22nd, but that wind will kill it for paddling.

Thursday the 23rd brings a shift with a 8ft to 8ft NW swell, but it’s short period at 7 seconds. This is a messy, lumpy swell, and at that size, it’s only for experts, and with a cross-offshore breeze from the SE, it’s going to be a tricky, bumpy session. The energy is moderate (580-725).

The last few days from the 24th to the 26th fizzle out with weak, poor-condition waves. A small glassy morning on the 24th (3ft), but that’s about it.

So, to wrap it up: your best bet is Friday morning the 17th. The combination of glassy wind, that very long period 5ft groundswell, and a point break setup is a rare treat. Sunday the 12th is a solid second pick for the weekend warrior with clean, head-high waves.

Stay salty.
Rusty

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