Te Araroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into what’s on the table for Te Araroa over the next couple of weeks.

Look, the truth is, we’ve got a pretty quiet run ahead. If you’re itching for a paddle, the very start of the period is really the only time where it’s worth even talking about, but even then, it’s not a full-blown classic. The first few days are all about small, clean, but extremely weak swell.

We kick off on Friday afternoon, September 11th. It’s glassy, with a tiny 2ft NE swell. The energy is weak, just 57 (combined swell energy), so you won’t find any power. But with the wind dead calm and glass conditions, a longboard could be fun if you just want to get wet. The water is sitting at 58°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year – nothing unusual there.

Saturday the 12th starts off promising. Early morning we’ve got a clean 1ft swell from the NE with a lovely light offshore breeze from the South. The period stretches out to 13 seconds, which is nice and long, but the energy is still low at 88. It will be a clean, lined-up little wave at the point, but don’t expect much push – perfect for a beginner or a log, but not a standout. That offshore wind won’t last; by the afternoon the breeze swings and gets stronger, killing the quality.

From there, it’s a dry spell. We go through all of the next week from Sunday the 13th right up to Wednesday the 16th with almost nothing rideable. Winds are messy, swell drops to almost nothing – mostly 1ft and under. It’s a real lull.

We get a bit of a pulse on the 17th (Thursday), but don’t get your hopes up. The swell jumps to 5ft on the morning and 7ft by the afternoon, both from the NNW. The problem? That is a short-period, wind-driven swell at just 6 seconds, and the wind is a strong onshore breeze from the NW. The energy climbs quickly – 193 in the morning and a meaty 432 in the afternoon – but with that wind, it’s gonna be a choppy, blown-out mess. This is one for the kites, not for a paddle surfer. It’s going to be too bumpy for a good time.

The following Friday the 18th cleans up a bit. The swell drops to 5ft from the N, still short period (7 seconds), but the wind swings to a cross-offshore direction. It’s still a bit raw, but the afternoon session has some surfable waves. The energy is moderate at 172. It’s “ordinary”, not exciting.

Finally, Saturday the 19th is your best bet in this whole outlook. The morning is looking good. Clean 4ft swell from the NNE with a clean cross-offshore breeze. The period ticks up to 8 seconds, and the energy is a solid 395 (moderate-strong). This is the only window that has "expect good surf conditions" in the data, and I’d agree. It’s not huge, but it’s clean, it’s got some punch, and on a point break like Te Araroa, it should shape up nicely.

After that morning, the wind picks up again and the quality drops away. The rest of the second week is a washout – tiny swell, onshore winds, or just flat. By the time we hit the 26th of September, the swell is completely gone.

Honestly, if you can get in the water on the morning of the 19th, that’s the time. Everything else is a gamble or a skunked session.

Stay tuned, Rusty.

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