Te Araroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming our way.

Well, I gotta be straight with you – it’s gonna be a real slow start. The first few days are pretty much a write-off for any decent paddle. We’ve got a lot of onshore and cross-shore winds mushing things up. The water temp is sitting at 59°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Things only start to look a little interesting by the weekend. Saturday morning (5th September) is where we get our first real glimpse of hope at Te Araroa. The swell bumps up a bit to 5ft from the NW, with a short period of 7 seconds – so it’s windswell, not groundswell. The wind is light and cross-offshore from the west (10 mph), which should keep it clean. It’s a consistent, exposed spot, so a few waves will roll through. The combined swell energy is 272, which is moderate. Not a standout by any means, but it’s the best of a pretty quiet first week.

If you’re a beginner, be careful – that 5ft might feel a little punchy. For the intermediate surfer, it’s worth a look.

Now, here’s where it gets a little wild. On Monday morning (7th September), the swell jumps up to a chunky 10ft from the NW, with a period of 9 seconds. That’s serious power – the combined energy is 1179, which is strong to very strong. But, the wind is a fresh cross-onshore from the NW at 22 mph, so it’s gonna be a lumpy mess. That one’s only for the experts, if anyone bothers. The afternoon cleans up nicely though – the wind whips around to a cross-offshore SSE at 19 mph, and the swell drops to a still solid 8ft. That’s a big wave for Te Araroa, but the conditions are marginal with those tides. If you’re an experienced charger, that Monday afternoon window is the one to keep an eye on.

There’s a big gap after that. The rest of the first week and most of the second week are tiny and pretty poor, with barely any swell and messy winds. You’ll be looking at flat spells for days on end.

Then, right at the tail end of the forecast, we get a proper standout. On Friday morning (18th September), a solid SE groundswell rolls in. We’re looking at 5ft of swell from the SE with a long period of 13 seconds. That’s proper groundswell. The combined energy is 585, which is strong. The wind is a clean cross-offshore from the south at 12 mph. This setup – long period, offshore wind, and a cross-off angle – is prime for Te Araroa’s point. The waves will be well-shaped, with nice long lines, but expect longer gaps between sets. It’s a promising one, but it’s a long way out, so don’t set your watch by it just yet.

So, to sum it up: our best bets are a clean but average Saturday morning (5th), a big, gnarly Monday afternoon (7th) for the brave, and a potentially epic late-arriving swell on Friday the 18th. Keep the 18th pencilled in.

Rusty.

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