Te Araroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this 16-day window for Te Araroa is a tough one. There’s a long stretch of nothing happening, then a few days where the ocean might get your hopes up only to dash them with messy wind, and a couple of promising-looking pulses that are a long way off.

We’re looking at a real quiet start. From the 5th through to the 7th, it’s tiny little 0.7 ft ENE windswell with periods around 10 seconds, and the wind is mostly cross or cross-off. The combined energy is barely a whisper at 13 (weak). It’s small and mostly poor for paddling out. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so nothing weird there.

Then on Monday the 7th, the swell jumps up to 7 ft from the NW but with a short, weak 7-second period and a howling 18-22 mph cross-onshore wind. The energy reading hits 403 (moderate), but the wind is just going to chop it to pieces. It’s a write-off.

Now, Tuesday the 8th is where it gets interesting, but it comes with a big caveat. We’ve got a solid 10 ft swell from the NNW/NW, with the period improving to 9-10 seconds. The combined energy is massive – 1528 to 1788 (strong to very strong wave energy). That’s a lot of power. But the wind is cross-shore from the WNW at 12 mph, putting a chop on it. The guidance calls it “marginal” due to tide or conditions. For a spot like Te Araroa, a beach and point, that 10 ft NW swell is big. At over 8 ft, this is for experts only. Beginners – stay out of the water. The cross-shore wind will make it lumpy, but if the tide lines up, the point might offer some heavy, fast waves. This is your one true standout in the first week, but it’s not for the faint of heart.

After that, the energy drops off fast. The 9th cleans up with a nice SE cross-off wind, but the swell crashes to 4 ft, then 3 ft, and the energy is back down to 242 (moderate), then 129 (weak). It’s surfable but very ordinary.

Then we hit a dead zone. From the 10th of September all the way through to the 17th, the swell is mostly below 2 ft with periods all over the place, and the combined energy barely scrapes 50 (weak). There are a few moments on the 11th, 12th, and 13th with clean offshore or cross-off wind and tiny 1-2 ft NE groundswell with a nice long 13-14 second period, but the energy is just too low (39-74). You’d be fighting for a 1-foot wave. It’s a gap of about 8 days with no real recommendation.

Looking way out to the 17th (Thursday), we see a pulse of 5 ft NW swell with an 8-second period, and the energy is 329 (moderate). The wind is cross-off from the SSE, which could clean it up. That’s a maybe for the end of the second week, but it’s a long-range call and eight seconds is a short, weak period. It’s a promise in the distance.

Honestly, if you’re a kite surfer, that Tuesday the 8th with 10 ft and cross-shore wind might be your jam, but for paddle surfing, it’s a tough period. The standout is that Tuesday the 8th, but it’s a big, challenging day for experts only.

Rusty.

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