Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk Number Fours. The next week and a half is a real slow burn, with nothing much to write home about until way late in the forecast. The water is sitting at a normal 80°, so no surprises there.

The first few days are a total bust. Thursday the 16th through Sunday the 19th, we’ve got tiny waves and a stiff cross-off breeze. The waves are clean but tiny – 2ft to 5ft of short-period windswell from the ENE, with a period of 7 seconds. That’s useless for a reef. The combined energy is weak to moderate (288 to 442), and it’s all poor surf. Don’t even think about it.

Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st show a little more promise. The swell drops to 3ft to 3ft, but it’s coming from the S with a longer period of 14 to 16 seconds – that’s proper groundswell. The energy picks up a bit (376 to 593), but the scores are still marginal. The wind is still cross-off from the ENE, so it’s clean but small. Not worth the drive.

Then we hit a dry spell. From Wednesday the 22nd through to Sunday the 27th, the swell builds but the conditions never line up. You’ll see the energy climb from moderate into strong territory (660 up to 2678), and the wave size gets bigger – 4ft to 6ft by the 26th and 27th. The period is solid too, 13 to 17 seconds. But the wind stays stubbornly cross-off from the ENE, sometimes hitting a strong breeze. The forecasts are all marginal. It’s a tease.

Now, here’s the real deal. Monday the 28th of July is the standout. This is a big, powerful swell. Monday morning we’re looking at 10ft from the ENE with a 15-second period, and the combined energy is a massive 4895 – that’s very strong. Monday afternoon it gets even bigger: 12ft from the ENE, period 15 seconds, energy hitting 6148. This is serious groundswell. The wind is cross-off from the NE, moderate to fresh breeze, so it’ll be clean. But at 10ft to 12ft, this is expert-only territory. That’s big for a reef. Beginners, stay on the sand. The long period means it’ll have heaps of punch and long waits between sets. At Number Fours, a reef break, that’s a good thing – it’ll hold its shape. It’s the best on offer, but you need to be on your A-game.

Tuesday the 29th of July morning is another highlight. The swell drops right back to 3ft from the S, period 13 seconds, but the wind goes light from the E at 6 mph. That’s a light breeze, almost glassy. The energy is moderate (339). Then Tuesday afternoon gets even better: the wind goes glassy – 3 mph from the ENE, true glass. The swell is 3ft from the ENE, period 9 seconds. It’s small and clean, perfect for a longboard or a funboard. The crowd factor at Number Fours is “sometimes,” so you might see a few heads, but on a Tuesday afternoon with that glass, it’s a winner.

The last couple of days, Wednesday the 30th and Thursday the 31st of July, go a bit messy. The wind turns cross-on and cross, and the swell is short-period windswell again. Not worth it.

So, to sum it up: if you’ve got the skills, Monday the 28th of July is the big one – big, powerful groundswell, clean, but only for experts. For the everyday surfer, the glassy little window on Tuesday the 29th of July afternoon is your best bet for a fun, clean session.

Rusty.

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