Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day crew, Rusty here. It’s a bit of a frustrating run coming up over the next couple of weeks at Number Fours. There’s some energy in the water, but the wind just won’t play ball for most of it, and the conditions stay pretty average. Let’s break it down.

We’ve got a long, quiet start. The first proper recommendation doesn’t pop up until Saturday the 11th of July, and even then it’s only a marginal call. So there’s about a four-day gap with nothing worth paddling out for right from now.

From Tuesday the 7th of July through to the end of the first week, the onshore ENE wind is pumping at 19 to 25 mph, making a mess of things. Swell hangs around 6 ft to 7 ft from the ENE, with a short, crumbly period of 7 to 8 seconds. The combined wave energy is moderate to strong (values between 461 and 871), but with that stiff cross-off wind, the surf is just poor. A couple of afternoons on the 11th and 12th tick up to a ‘marginal’ rating, but you’d be scraping for anything rideable.

The second week doesn’t start much kinder. From Monday the 13th through to the end of the week, the wind eases a touch to 19 mph, but it’s still cross-off from the ENE. Swell stays in that 6 ft to 7 ft range, short-period, and it’s all marginal at best with a score of just 1 or 2 out of 10. Water temp is sitting at 80°F, about average for this time of year with a 0.9°F anomaly – so no surprises there.

Now, there is a glimmer. Look ahead to Tuesday the 21st of July. We get a proper long-period groundswell arriving – 4 ft to 4 ft from the east with a very long period of 16 seconds. The energy jumps right up to 1284 to 1359, strong stuff for the size. But here’s the kicker: this kind of long-period swell can be tricky at a reef setup like Number Fours, with sets breaking a bit too straight. The wind is still cross-off from the ENE at 16 mph, so it won’t be glassy, but that moderate breeze keeps it just about rideable. It’s marginal, but this is the standout of the whole outlook. Expect clean waves, but with that wind direction, it’s going to be a bit lumpy on the face. Crowds are possible, so don’t expect it all to yourself.

Wednesday the 22nd of July sees the swell drop a touch to 3 ft from the east, period still long at 15 seconds. The wind switches light – early on a gentle ESE cross-shore at 9 mph, and by the afternoon a light S onshore at only 3 mph, almost glassy. That afternoon could be the cleanest session of the whole run, but the energy is fading, dropping to 849. Still, for a quiet, smooth wave with that long-period groundswell, it’s worth a look if you’re free.

Overall, it’s a long, windy wait for a few days of borderline surf. The best bet is that Tuesday and Wednesday around the 21st and 22nd of July, when the long-period east swell offers some real quality, even if it’s not perfect. Don’t hold your breath for the rest of it.

Rusty.

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