Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here, looking at the next stretch for Number Fours. It’s a mixed bag, so let's get into it.

We’re kicking off Friday the 21st of August with some real small, clean conditions. The water’s sitting at a normal 81° for this time of year, so no surprises there. That morning has a light cross-onshore breeze, nothing to write home about, but by Friday afternoon the wind swings cross-offshore and it’s glassy. That afternoon session is our first real standout. You’ve got a little 2ft groundswell from the south-west, but get this – it’s packing a 16-17 second period. That’s proper long-period energy, which will make this tricky reef break (Number Fours) really stand up and offer some nice, lined-up waves. The combined energy is low though, only (342), so it’s not a beast, but it’ll be clean and fun.

Now, don’t get too excited for the next few days. Saturday the 22nd through Monday the 25th are pretty much a write-off. We get hit by a fresh to strong breeze from the ENE, blowing 22-25 mph. The swell is tiny at 2ft and messy, or it’s short-period junk. The combined energy climbs into the moderate range, hitting (527) and even (618), but the wind is just going to ruin it. This is a stretch of bleakness for paddling.

We finally see a glimmer on Wednesday the 26th. The wind is still fresh, but the swell starts shifting more southerly. By Thursday the 27th morning, we get a solid push of south swell at 4ft with a 17-second period, and the combined energy jumps right up to (1012). That’s moderate-to-strong energy hitting the reef. The wind is still cross-off, so it’ll be clean, but it’s still a bit breezy. This one is promising, but not a total gem.

Then, we hit a massive wait. From the 28th through the 30th, it's all marginal with onshore winds and weak, short-period easterly slop. The combined energy hangs around the 700-900 range, but the quality just isn't there for good paddling.

Hold on, because the end of the period makes it all worth it. Monday the 31st of August and Tuesday the 1st of September see a proper swell event. The swell jumps to a solid 10ft to 12ft from the ENE, with the combined energy blasting through the roof at (2133) and even (2882). That is strong to very strong wave energy. However, there’s a huge caveat here. For Monday the 31st, it’s an 11-second period, dropping to 10 seconds, which is moderate. At 10ft+, this is big, powerful, and for experts only at this reef. On top of that, the wind is howling from the NE at 19-31 mph. Monday afternoon is still cross-off, but Tuesday the 1st gets a near gale. For most of us, this will be a washed-out, dangerous mess. It’s more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing through that wind.

We get a slight cleanup into Wednesday the 2nd and Thursday the 3rd, with the swell dropping to a still-sizeable 6-7ft. The period drops off to a short, punchy 8-9 seconds, and the wind eases. There’s a potential for decent, racy waves on the later afternoons if the wind holds cross-off. The combined energy is still moderate, around (700-900). The standout of that little run is Friday the 4th of September afternoon. Swell is 5ft from the ENE at 8 seconds, but the wind is light and cross-off, and the score bumps up. It’s the first truly “very good” conditioned call in a long time.

The last call is Saturday the 5th of September with a bit more period at 12 seconds and a mellow 5ft, but with that light cross-off wind it has potential for a clean finish.

So, if you had to pick. The true standout is that first Friday afternoon, the 21st. It’s small but glassy on a long-period groundswell. The second standout is the far-off Saturday, the 5th of September, with a longer-period swell and light wind – it’s promising, but don’t book your flights yet.

Stay safe, check the tides, and I’ll see you out there.

Rusty

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