Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about Number Fours.

The next couple of weeks are a bit of a mixed bag, honestly. There’s surf on the way, but you’re gonna have to wade through some rough, short-period wind swell and a whole lot of cross-off breeze before we see any kind of gold. The first run of proper waves doesn’t show up for a bit, so don’t get too excited about the immediate forecast.

Looking at the start, through the 16th and 17th, we’re looking at small, weak conditions. Swell heights hovering around 2ft to 3ft with a long period SW groundswell, but the energy is weak and the tide is questionable. The wind is a moderate cross-off from the ENE. It’s clean, but there’s just nothing to ride. The swell energy is in the 400s to 600s, which is pretty gutless. Not worth the paddle.

Then Thursday the 17th rolls in, and we see a bump in size, but it’s a complete trade-off. We’re looking at 7ft of wind swell from the ENE with a period of only 7 seconds. That’s short-period junk. It’s got some push to it, but it’s going to be a messy, crumbly mess. The energy jumps up to 880 and then 1172, so there’s power, but it’s not the good kind. This is more of a wind-blown, walled-up closeout. The wind is a fresh cross-off, which keeps the surface clean, but the wave quality is just poor. This continues right through the 21st, with the swell staying between 6ft and 8ft, but the period staying short. The whole joint is going to be a washing machine. I’d sit this stretch out, it's just not fun.

Now, here’s where things start to get interesting. Around the 22nd and into the 23rd, the energy builds back up into the four-digit range, but it’s the wind that finally lets up. On the afternoon of Wednesday the 23rd, we’ve got a 8ft swell from the E, a period of 9 seconds, and a gentle breeze from the NE. The energy reading is a solid 1171. This is the standout of the whole window. The conditions are finally coming together. It’s still got some size to it, but it’s not the messy wind swell we had. This is the one day where you want to be out there. The wave comment is “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers,” and I’d have to agree. That’s your pick. For the more advanced crew, this is the time to go.

After that, the outlook gets a bit uncertain. The 24th brings in some storm risk with a southerly wind and an onshore component, which is a bit of a shame after the 23rd. Swell drops off, the period stays short, and the surface gets a bit chopped. It’s not the same.

Heading into the final few days of September, from the 25th on, it’s a step back down. The swell mixes back to short-period ENE wind swell, hovering around 7ft, but the quality is back to marginal. The wind is back up to a fresh cross-off. Then by the 27th, the swell fades back down to under 3ft with a long-period SSW groundswell, but the energy is dropping fast. By the last few days, the 28th through the 30th, we’re back to small, weak, and poor. The energy drops into the 300s and 400s. Not worth the effort.

So, to sum it up: the early part is small and weak, there’s a messy stretch of junky wind swell in the middle, but the one real standout is that Wednesday afternoon, the 23rd. That is your day. Get on it if you can. The long-range stuff after that is just too weak and disorganized to get excited about. Keep it on your radar, but don’t hold your breath.

The water temp is right around 81°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, not much of a surprise there.

This is Rusty, signing off. Keep your eye on that Wednesday.

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