Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it.

The next couple of weeks at Number Fours are a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got a solid pulse of energy coming through early on, but it’s going to be messy. Then things back right off before we see a more promising, longer-period swell arriving towards the end of the run. Keep your expectations in check for the first half, and save your energy for the back half of the forecast.

The opening salvos hit Saturday afternoon, the 15th. We’re looking at a solid 15ft of east-northeast swell rolling in with a 10-second period. The energy is strong, with a combined reading of 4073. But the wind is the story – a near-gale from the east-northeast at 34 mph, blowing cross-off. It’s going to be lumpy, bumpy, and pretty wild out there. This is not a day for the faint of heart; more of a "watch from the carpark and wonder" kind of day. The water temp is sitting at 81°, which is about par for the course this time of year.

Sunday the 16th drops down to 8ft, but the period is shorter and there’s a cross-shore breeze and the chance of a thunderstorm. It’s not looking clean, and the energy drops to 1847. Still sizeable, but those conditions are going to make it a battle. The wind eases in the afternoon to 9 mph from the east, and the swell drops a touch to 7ft, but it’s still cross and a bit gutless. One to skip, really.

From Monday the 17th, the bottom falls out. Swell drops to under 3ft, and we’re left with some long-period energy from the south that’s only producing ankle-biters. The period is a long 14 seconds, but there’s just no size to it. This flat spell is going to hang around for the better part of a week. We’ve got clean conditions with the east-northeast cross-off breeze, but there’s nothing to ride. It’s a waiting game.

The pointers start to look a little more interesting from Friday the 21st. We’ve got a small 2ft south-west swell pushing through with a long 17-second period. It’s still small, but the quality is a bit better, and the wind is a light 9 mph. It’s not going to be epic, just a bit of clean fun on the reef. The energy is still weak at 391, but at least it’s something. Saturday the 22nd looks similar, with that south-west groundswell providing the same ankle to knee-high options.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. After this small, clean window, the wind is set to howl from the east-northeast again from the 24th through the 27th. Swell builds back to 5ft to 7ft, but the periods are short, a junky 6-7 seconds. The energy is moderate, pushing up to 807, but this is all wind-slop and short-period junk. With that strong breeze and the short-period swell, this spot is going to be a mess. Honestly, this looks more like a kite-surfing set-up than a paddling one. Not what we want.

But then, hold on to your boards. The run from Saturday the 29th through to Sunday the 30th has some real potential written all over it. The swell direction swings around to the east with a period that jumps to a very long 16 seconds. The size comes up to 4ft on Saturday morning, building to 5ft by Sunday afternoon. The energy starts to build too, from 1217 up to a strong 1450 by Sunday. The wind on Saturday is a light 6 mph cross-shore, and Sunday it’s a clean 12 mph cross-off. This is the standout window. This is true long-period groundswell – the kind that will wrap into the reef with some proper push and shape. It’s a little way off, so don’t book the time off just yet, but this has the makings of the best waves we’ve seen in the whole forecast. It’s more than a week away, so treat it as promising but keep an eye on it.

So, the plan is simple: sit tight through the junky, blown-out stuff and the flat spell, then be ready for that last weekend of August. That’s where the magic might be.

Rusty

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