Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a solitary spot on the radar for the next 16 days: Number Fours. It’s a reef set-up, so expect some defined lines when it’s on, but we’ve got a real mixed bag of weather and swell to wade through first.

The window opens on Wednesday the 2nd of September, and honestly, it’s a rough start. We’re looking at a 7ft swell from the ENE, but it’s getting hammered by a 25 mph cross-offshore breeze. The water is sitting at a warm 81°, which is about average for this time of year—nothing to complain about there. But the overall wave energy is weak (959), and the 8-second period is just too short and messy. This is a write-off for a paddle board. Honestly, with that wind and chop, it looks more like a kite-surfing setup than a clean surf session.

That same pattern of strong ENE wind and poor surf quality carries right through Thursday and into Friday morning. We’re looking at a 8ft swell on Thursday afternoon with a shocking 7-second period and 984 energy—just a big, lumpy mess. Don’t bother.

The first real glimmer of hope shows up on Friday the 4th of September. The swell drops to 4ft, but the direction swings to the S with a long 12-second period, and the energy jumps to a solid 1419. Problem is, the wind is still a fresh 22 mph cross-offshore, so it’s described as marginal. The same story plays out on Saturday and Sunday; the swell hangs around 7ft to 8ft from the ENE with a 12 to 14-second period, and the energy climbs into the 2000s and 2700s—that’s moderate to strong energy. But that persistent 15 to 18 mph cross-offshore wind is the spoiler. It’s clean, but the wind is just too strong for really good quality.

The standout moment arrives on Monday the 7th of September. The morning looks marginal, but the afternoon sees a 8ft swell from the ENE with a 13-second period. The combined energy hits a massive 5265—that’s strong, powerful surf. The wind is still a moderate 15 mph, but it’s cross-offshore. The forecast is still calling it “marginal” due to the risk of thunderstorms, so keep an eye on the sky.

Then things get ugly. Tuesday the 8th of September is a bust. A 15ft swell from the SW hits, but a near-gale 31 mph SSE wind is blowing straight onshore. The energy is a staggering 9725, but it’s a blown-out, dangerous mess. Leave your board at home.

We get a brief window of calm on Wednesday the 9th. The swell drops to 6ft from the SSW, the wind is a gentle 9 mph, and the energy is back to a moderate 672. It’s still only marginal, but it’s a step in the right direction.

The second week settles down, but it’s small. From the 10th to the 13th, we’re seeing waist-to-chest high swell (4ft to 5ft) from the ENE, with periods dropping back to 8-11 seconds. The winds are lighter, even going glassy on the afternoon of the 13th and the 14th. On Monday the 14th of September, we get a fascinating blip: a tiny 2ft swell from the SW with a ridiculously long 24-second period. The energy is 767, and it’s glassy. That’s a proper groundswell, but it’s so long-period it’s going to be very straight and fat here at the beach. It’s a novelty, not a day for a proper session.

The very last day on the 17th of September, Thursday afternoon, sees a small spike: a 6ft ENE swell with a 9-second period and 1385 energy. The wind is a moderate 15 mph cross-offshore. It’s on the cleaner side, but still marginal.

The Verdict: If you’re desperate, the best bet in the whole 16 days is probably Monday the 7th of September for the raw power (8ft, 13-second period, 5265 energy) despite the risk of storms. The second-best option is the glassy, clean, but small conditions on Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th of September. For the rest of it, the wind is just too strong or the swell is too small to really get excited about.

Rusty, signing off.

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