Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a bit of a rough stretch ahead at Number Fours. The good news? There’s plenty of swell on the cards over the next couple of weeks. The bad news? The wind is going to be a persistent issue, blowing cross-offshore from the ENE for almost the entire run, which isn’t going to do us any favours for proper clean waves. The water temp is sitting at 81°, which is pretty much average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

For the first few days, we’re looking at a strong pulse of easterly swell. On Saturday morning August 1st, the swell is a solid 10 ft from the east, but it’s short period stuff, just 8 seconds, and that combined wave energy is pumping at a very strong 1501. Thing is, with those strong breeze conditions and the swell being so short and fat, the surf quality is poor. It’s going to be a messy, bumpy ocean. Sunday and Monday see the swell drop a bit, down to 7 ft and then 6 ft, but the wind stays stiff and the period remains short at 8 seconds. The reef at Number Fours is exposed, so it’ll be getting all that energy, but the conditions are just not cooperating. This isn't really a paddle-surfing situation with this much wind and lumpy water – more like a kite session.

Things cool down mid-week. Tuesday August 4th is the best of a so-so bunch. The swell drops to 5 ft to 5 ft, but the period stretches out to 11 seconds, which is a proper groundswell. The wind also backs off to a gentler breeze. The combined energy is moderate at 637, and the marginal surf forecast suggests the tide might be an issue. It’s not going to be epic, but it’s the cleanest the lineup will look this week.

After that, we hit a major lull. From Wednesday August 5th all the way through to the following Tuesday August 11th, the surf is poor to marginal at best. You’re looking at swells under 3 ft, often mixed with long-period SSW energy (14 to 16 seconds) but the wind just ruins it. The combined energy drops from 378 down into the low hundreds, indicating very weak wave energy. Honestly, this is the kind of dry spell where you don’t even bother checking the cam. A blank run like this is pretty normal when the wind has the upper hand.

Now, into the second week, things get a little more interesting, but it’s still a gamble. Wednesday August 12th brings a promising pulse of south swell with a very long period of 17 seconds. The swell height is only 4 ft, but that energy is moderate at 1089. The wind is still cross-off from the ENE, but if it manages to clock around or ease off, this groundswell could produce some proper shaped waves peeling down the reef. Thursday morning August 13th keeps that 4 ft south swell with a 15-second period, but the wind is back up, and by the afternoon, it’s a strong breeze again. These long-period south swells can be classy at Number Fours if the wind plays ball, but right now it’s a “we’ll see” kind of deal.

The final weekend, August 15th and 16th, sees a return of the easterly swell, pushing back up over 7 ft (10 ft on Saturday afternoon), but it’s a repeat of the beginning: short period (8 seconds) and strong winds. The combined energy is very strong, but the poor surf conditions mean it’s a messy, blown-out mess for experts only, if anyone.

If I had to pick one standout, it’s the Tuesday morning, August 4th. The 5 ft east swell with a 11-second period, under a gentler breeze, is the closest we’ll get to a clean, ripable wave. It’s not a classic, but given the run we’re looking at, it’s the best on offer. Keep an eye on Wednesday August 12th and Thursday August 13th for that long-period south swell, but don’t hold your breath until the wind forecast improves.

Rusty.

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