Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again. Let’s break it down in feet and degrees.

Straight up, it’s not a classic stretch. The wind is locked in from the east-northeast as a cross-off breeze, blowing a solid 19 to 25 mph for most of the opening days. That’s going to keep things a bit messy. The swell is all short-period windswell, mostly around 7 to 8 seconds, which means the waves are going to be crumbly, lacking punch, and hard to get a proper barrel out of. The water temperature is sitting at 79.2°, which is about normal for the time of year, so no worries on the thermal front.

We start off with a rough patch. Friday the 10th and Saturday the 11th are poor – the swell is there, around 5.9ft to 6.6ft, but the wind is just too strong and the period’s too short. The energy is moderate at best, even with readings around 469 to 670 (combined energy). It’s just not going to be a fun paddle. The first real glimmer of hope doesn’t come until the afternoon of Saturday the 11th, when a new swell from the southwest rolls in at 18 seconds. That’s a proper long-period groundswell, but it’s only 2.3ft and the tide could be a factor. It’s a marginal call, but it’s something.

The pattern continues through the middle of the week. Sunday the 12th through Tuesday the 15th is a lot of the same: 4.9ft to 6.9ft, short period, moderate energy (around 500 to 890), and a cross-off wind that’s just too fresh to make it clean. It’s more of a battle than a session. Wednesday the 15th afternoon sees a drop in size to 2.3ft with a 14-second SSW swell, but again, it’s marginal. The swell window is trying to open, but the wind isn’t playing ball.

Now, where it gets interesting is the long-range stuff. Around Thursday the 24th and Friday the 25th, the swell direction swings to the SSW, with a period of 16 to 18 seconds. That’s a lovely long-period groundswell, and the combined energy jumps up to 642 to 928 (moderate to strong). The size is small, only 2.6ft to 3.3ft, but at Number Fours, a reef setup, that long-period energy can produce some really fun, lined-up waves, especially if the wind lays down. Saturday the 25th morning is the pick of the bunch – a score of 2 out of 10 is the best we see, with a moderate breeze and a 2.9ft SSW swell at 16 seconds. The wind is still cross-off, but the quality is the best of the whole outlook.

The big caveat is that this is a long-range call, so don’t lock it in just yet. The first week is a write-off unless you’re desperate for a paddle. The second week is where the potential is, but it’s not a guarantee. The surf is inconsistent, and the good windows are short. If you’re a beginner, anything over 4.9ft and short period is going to be a handful, so stick to the smaller days.

So, the standout? Saturday the 25th morning. It’s the only time the numbers line up for a proper session. Keep your fingers crossed for a little luck.

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