Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the next couple of weeks at Number Fours.

It’s a bit of a slow burn, to be honest. The surf kicks off small and a little messy, then there’s a big pulse of energy mid-period that’s going to be way too much for this place, and then it settles back down. The standout days are a while off – we’re looking at Thursday the 20th and Friday the 21st as the real windows where everything lines up.

Right now, Saturday the 8th is pretty weak, but the water’s a warm 81°, about average for this time of year. We’ve got a cross-off breeze and clean waves, but it’s tiny. The swell is only 2ft from the SW with a long 18-second period, and the combined energy is weak at 400. It’s a grovel, not a go-out.

We roll through Sunday the 9th, Monday the 10th, and Tuesday the 11th with a bit more size, but it’s short-period ENE windswell, around 5ft to 5ft. The period is only 7-8 seconds, so it’s not got much push. The energy is moderate, ranging from 429 to 555. It’s clean with that cross-off, but it’s marginal. You’ll get waves, but they won't be great.

Wednesday the 12th and Thursday the 13th see a shift. The swell direction swings around to the S/SSW, with a much longer period of 15-18 seconds. The heights drop to 3ft to 4ft, but that longer period means more organized lines. Energy picks up into the low 1000s – moderate. Still, the score is marginal. There's potential, but you need the right tide.

Then things get big in a hurry. Friday the 14th sees the swell jump to 8ft to 10ft from the ENE, with a short 8-second period. The energy is strong, at 1364 to 2023. That’s already a lot for this spot, and it’s pushing towards expert-only territory, but the real monster is Saturday the 15th. The swell is 20ft to 25ft, with the combined energy absolutely huge at 8102 to 15054. The wind is a near gale. That is not a paddle-out. That is a full-on tow-in day, and even then, it’s too big and messy for Number Fours. The rip will be insane. This is more of a kite-surfing spectacle than anything else.

Sunday the 16th is blown out with a cross-onshore SE wind. The swell drops to 7ft to 10ft, but it’s choppy and ugly. No good.

After that, we’re back to the grind. From Monday the 17th through Wednesday the 19th, there’s plenty of swell in the 5ft to 6ft range, but all short-period ENE windswell. It’s clean, but it’s not holding shape well. It’s a week of waist-to-chest-high, mediocre walls, and nothing that’s going to get your heart racing.

Now, for the standouts. Thursday the 20th and Friday the 21st are your windows. Thursday morning, the swell is a consistent 5ft, and the wind drops to a gentle 15 km/h cross-off. The energy is moderate, hitting 595. It’s the cleanest it’s been all run, and the forecast says expect very good surf. That’s your best bet for a proper session.

Friday the 21st builds slightly to 7ft, with a bit more period at 9 seconds. The wind is still offshore, and the energy is strong, around 977. It’s more size, but it’s also getting more powerful. This is the bigger, punchier option, but Thursday looks like the pick for quality and crowd control.

Crowds are just listed as “sometimes” here, so you might get it to yourself if you’re lucky.

After that, the weekend of the 22nd and 23rd drops back to 6ft to 7ft of short-period ENE swell. It’s clean but unremarkable. A bit of a fizzle to end the window.

So, in the end: don’t waste your time on Friday the 15th, that’s for madmen. Mark Thursday the 20th on the calendar, it’s the one. Friday the 21st is also worth it if you want a bit more power. The long-range stuff is promising, but don't book your flights yet.

Stay salty.

Rusty

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