Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a hard look at what Number Fours is cooking up for the next couple of weeks. It’s gonna be a long wait for the good stuff, so patience is the name of the game.

Right now, we’re in a bit of a dry spell. For the first week and a half, from Saturday the 22nd of August all through the end of the month, the wind is a constant issue. That ENE breeze is parked on us at 18 to 25 mph, blowing cross-off, which isn’t the worst direction, but it’s ripping too strong to let things settle. The swell is mostly short-period windswell in the 5 to 6 ft range with periods around 7 seconds, but the energy is all messed up. The water temp is sitting at 80° with almost no anomaly, so it’s just average for this time of year. Honestly, there’s nothing worth paddling out for here. The scores flatline at zero for days. It’s poor surf, through and through.

Look, we finally start to see a shift around Wednesday the 2nd of September. That’s the first real glimmer. On Wednesday morning, the wind goes glassy – a 3 mph SE breeze, dead calm conditions. The swell drops to about 3 ft but it’s a proper S groundswell with a 17-second period. Combined wave energy is moderate at 443. The call is for good surf conditions. This is a runner for the cleanest, most lined-up waves you’ll see in this whole window. That afternoon is even better – glassy calm, 3 ft from the south at 16 seconds. It’s tiny, but it’ll be perfect.

Thursday the 3rd is a step back. The morning gets a light cross-on breeze and the swell fades to 2 ft, with energy dropping to 366. It’s marginal. The afternoon flirts with glass again, but the swell is just 2 ft and the energy is weak at 188, so it’s very ordinary.

Friday the 4th improves. Morning has a gentle 9 mph cross-off wind and 2 ft of S swell at 14 seconds, with energy of 298. It’s clean and surfable. But then the afternoon tries to mix in a 5 ft ENE windswell at 7 seconds, and that combo is messy. The overall energy jumps to 518, but the quality drops.

Now, if you’re an experienced surfer and you can wait, the real stand-out window is Saturday the 5th and Sunday the 6th of September. On Saturday morning, a solid 4 ft E groundswell rolls in with a 16-second period, and the combined energy hits 1415 – that’s moderate but building. It’s a bit of a tease, as the wind is still cross-off at 12 mph. By Saturday afternoon, the swell bumps up to 6 ft from the east, still 16 seconds, and the energy pumps to 2133. This is the strongest, most energetic swell of the whole forecast. Then Sunday morning, it gets big. We’re looking at 10 ft of ENE swell with a 14-second period, and the combined energy is a whopping 3652 – that’s strong, powerful surf. That 10 ft height is expert territory for sure. The wind stays cross-off at 15 mph, so it won’t be glassy, but it will be a heavy, powerful groundswell cleaning up the reef. For a proper, strong wave, this is the pick of the whole 16 days.

The long period here means longer gaps between sets, which can make paddling out easier, but at a reef break like Number Fours, those long-period swells really stand up and pitch. Expect the place to be more exposed to that ENE direction, and since it’s sometimes crowded, you’ll have company on those days. The best of the best? If you want clean and rideable, that Wednesday the 2nd is your glassy gem. If you want power and size, hold out for that Sunday the 6th of September.

- Rusty

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