Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m lookin’ straight at the forecast for Number Fours – a reef setup that’s exposed and loves a good SSE swell. And honestly, the next 16 days are a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got some solid energy coming through, but the wind is gonna be a persistent cross-off from the ENE, which is a real blessing for keeping the surface clean, but the swell direction is often not quite lining up perfectly with what this spot wants.

The water is sitting at a very comfortable 80°F – that’s almost bang on what you’d expect for this time of year, so no need for a thick suit.

Let’s start with the main event. The stand-out period is Tuesday, July 28. The swell is building, and we’re looking at 7 ft early in the morning from the E, with a solid 13-second period, pushing a combined energy of 1640. That’s a good, powerful groundswell, and the reef should handle it well. The cross-off wind from the NE at 16 mph is gonna keep it glassy. It’s a proper working day, sure, but if you can get out, this is the best wave on offer. The afternoon of the 28th jumps up to 8 ft from the same direction, and the energy jumps to 2348 – that’s serious power. It’s getting into the “experts only” territory at that size, and the winds pick up a touch to 19 mph, but it’s still clean. If you’re a confident surfer, that afternoon session is the one.

Now, the week before that is a bit of a slow burn. Saturday, July 25 has a funky mix. The morning is a disappointing 7 ft from the ENE with a short 8-second period and a stiff 22 mph cross-off wind. The energy is high at 1157, but the short period means it’ll be a bit lumpy and sectiony. The afternoon of the 25th drops to 3 ft but with a gorgeous 18-second period from the SSW – that’s a long period groundswell, but it’s just too small to really light up the reef.

Sunday, July 26 and Monday, July 27 are small, between 3 ft and 5 ft, with the ENE wind holding strong. It’s clean, but you’ll be hunting for the smaller sets.

Wednesday, July 29 sees a shift in wind, with a light SW cross-on at 9 mph in the morning, which is a bit messy. The swell is 8 ft from the ENE, but the wind is onshore, so it’ll be a bit of a chop fest. The afternoon goes onshore from the S, so that’s out.

Thursday, July 30 and Friday, July 31 are back to the ENE cross-off, but the swell is mixed. Friday, July 31 morning has a 8 ft ENE swell with a short 8-second period, and the wind is howling at 28 mph – that’s a strong breeze, making it a real battle. The energy is 1128, but the wind is just too much for a fun paddle.

The first weekend of August, 1st and 2nd, starts with a 8 ft ENE swell on Saturday but the wind is 25 mph – very strong. By Sunday, August 2, the swell drops to 4 ft but the period extends to a beautiful 15-16 seconds. The energy is still good at 1105, and the wind is a more manageable 19 mph. That’s a clean, long-period groundswell, but small. The reef will be making the most of it.

The following week, from Monday, August 3 onward, we see a slow decline. The swell stays around 4 ft to 5 ft with generally good period, but the wind stays stiff from the ENE. The energy drops right off into the 200-300s by the second weekend, and the period shortens right down to 6-7 seconds. The last few days, from Thursday, August 6 to Sunday, August 9, are a write-off. The waves are weak, short period, and the forecasts are calling it “poor surf conditions.” It’s a real flat spell to end the period.

So, to wrap it up: the best bet is Tuesday, July 28. The morning is a solid, clean 7 ft, and the afternoon is a powerful, expert-level 8 ft. The reef will be working. The long-period groundswell on Sunday, August 2 is the other interesting one, but you’ll be on a shortboard for the small clean waves. Crowds are _sometimes_ a thing here, so you might have a few others out on the good days.

Stay stoked.

Rusty

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