Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Right off the bat, Number Fours is the only spot on the radar for this 16-day window, and I won’t lie to you – it’s a tough run. The forecast shows a lot of days with a score of 1 or 0, so we’re looking at a real mixed bag. The good news is that the swell energy is actually quite significant for much of the period, but the wind and conditions are just not cooperating.

The first real sniff of anything worth paddling out for is on the morning of Wednesday, August 27th. We’ve got a 4ft swell coming from the south with a nice long period of 17 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy with combined energy of 855 (moderate wave energy). The wind is a fresh cross-off from the ENE at 19 mph, which gives us clean waves. It’s not perfect, but it’s the first sign of life. The afternoon drops a little to 3ft, but still clean.

Friday, August 29th, things get a bit bigger. We see a 6ft swell from the ENE on the morning, but the period is a short 7 seconds. That’s windswell, and it’s not going to be the most user-friendly. The combined energy is 540 (moderate wave energy). The wind is still cross-off, so the surf will be clean, but that short period means it’ll be a bit lumpy and less powerful. The afternoon holds at 6ft with the same short period.

The real standout in this whole outlook, and I mean the one that might make it worth the wait, is the afternoon of Monday, September 7th. We’re looking at a 4ft swell from the SSW with a period of 14 seconds. That’s a solid groundswell, and the combined energy jumps to 1179 (strong wave energy). The wind is a gentle breeze from the WNW at 9 mph, and it’s cross-off. That’s nearly glassy, and it’ll make for some really clean, lined-up waves. This is the best on offer.

Before that, there’s a big gap of poor conditions. From August 30th through to September 6th, the scores are consistently 0 or 1. The swell is mostly ENE windswell with a short 7-second period, and the wind is up in the 22-28 mph range. For a reef break like Number Fours, that’s a recipe for a washing machine. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual.

The second week is a letdown. From September 3rd to 6th, it’s just poor surf with strong, cross-off winds. The morning of September 7th gives a glimmer with a 3ft SSW swell and a moderate breeze, but the afternoon is the real gem. After that, September 8th sees a 5ft S swell with a 13-second period, but the wind swings to a cross-on, making it choppy. The 9th and 10th are a write-off with onshore winds.

So, if you’re patient, the afternoon of the 7th is your window. It’s a long way out, so the forecast could shift, but as it stands, that’s the one. For the rest, it’s a lot of wind and not much to get excited about.

Rusty.

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