Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what’s coming up for Number Fours. It’s a bit of a mixed bag over the next couple of weeks, so let’s get straight into it.

We’ve got a long stretch of strong, consistent trade winds blowing through, which is going to mess up the quality for paddle surfing for most of the first week and beyond. The opening is pretty grim, honestly. Friday the 21st has some small, clean surf with the swell around 2 ft from the SW, and a long 17-second period. The wind is light, making for some clean lines on the reef, but the wave energy is weak (291). It’s a marginal one at best.

Things then go sideways. From Saturday the 22nd right through to the end of the month, we’re looking at a persistent onslaught of strong cross-offshore winds, blowing 30 to 40 km/h (18 to 25 mph). The swell jumps up a bit, especially around the 23rd and 24th with some short-period, messy ENE windswell at 5 ft to 6 ft, but the wave energy is moderate to strong (422 to 575). The wind is ripping, making it pretty hopeless for a clean session.

There’s a glimmer of hope around the 26th and 27th. The wind eases slightly, but it’s still a fresh 30 km/h (18 mph) breeze. The swell drops back to 2 ft to 3 ft, but the direction swings to the S, and the period stretches out to 17 and 18 seconds – real groundswell. The combined energy is moderate to strong (647 to 831). Still, those winds are ruining the party. This period is better suited for a kite surfer than someone on a paddle board.

The real standout, and the one to circle on your calendar, is the end of the first week of September. This is for the experts out there. On Monday the 31st of August, into Tuesday the 1st of September, we see a serious pulse of swell. The swell height builds to 7 ft to 10 ft from the ENE with a 13-second period. The combined wave energy goes through the roof, hitting 1951 and then a massive 5515 on Tuesday. This is strong to very strong energy. For a reef break, that’s going to be powerful and take a good paddle. The catch? The wind is cranking 35 to 45 km/h (21 to 28 mph), and on Tuesday, it’s a near gale at 55 km/h (34 mph). This will be blown out and gnarly – a true big-wave, onshore challenge. It’s only for the top crew.

Looking further ahead, towards Saturday the 5th of September, we see a tease of something different. The wind drops to a moderate 20 km/h (12 mph), and the swell turns to a long-period 19-second groundswell from the SW at only 2 ft. The energy is moderate (663), and the very long period will make those sets fat and walled-up on the reef, but it might offer a clean, mellow wave if you’re patient.

Overall, the next 16 days have a lot of wind. Don’t hold your breath for the first week. The second week has more size and power, but it will be wild. If you’re paddling, the conditions are tough. If you’re kiting, it looks like a blast.

Rusty.

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