Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s coming up for Number Fours over the next couple of weeks. Honestly, it’s a bit of a frustrating outlook for us. The whole 16-day window is a struggle, with no real standout sessions. The first few days are the least bad, but even then, it’s not exactly firing.

Right off the bat, from Sunday the 2nd of August, we’ve got some swell on the cards, but it’s a tricky one. The water temp is sitting at 81°, which is about normal for this time of year, so nothing weird there. The morning brings a 7ft swell from the east-northeast, but with a short, weak period of only 8 seconds. The wind is a fresh 22 mph from the east-northeast, making it cross-off. The combined energy is high (1061), but the short period and wind mean the wave quality is poor. It’s really just a messy, choppy situation. The afternoon is worse, with the same swell but a “poor surf conditions” tag.

Monday the 3rd is a bit smaller, with a 5ft, 8-second swell in the morning, and the wind eases to 16 mph. Still cross-off, still marginal. The energy drops to 523. It’s not good, but it’s the most rideable of the first few days. The afternoon sees dropping swell and strengthening wind again.

Tuesday the 4th is the best of the whole run, and it’s sad to say that. The morning has a 5ft swell from the east-northeast, but the period finally stretches out to 11 seconds. That longer period means better shape and more energy. The wind is a gentle 9 mph cross-off, which is as good as it gets. The combined energy is 566. It’s still marginal, but with that longer period and lighter wind, it’s the cleanest window we’ve got. The afternoon is similar, just slightly smaller.

From Wednesday the 5th onwards, it’s a slow decline. Swell drops below 4ft, the period gets shorter, and the wind stays up. The energy levels fall into the low hundreds. By Thursday the 6th, the morning has a 3ft, 8-second swell with 9 mph wind, but it’s barely a ripple. The afternoon brings a fresh 19 mph breeze, making it ugly.

Things get weird from Friday the 7th. We get a tiny 1ft, 14-second groundswell from the south-southwest in the morning, but it’s so small and the wind is up. The energy is only 120. That’s a weak, long-period swell that’s better suited to a point or reef, but the size is pathetic. Saturday the 8th sees a jump back to 6ft, but it’s a short-period 7-second wind swell with a strong 22-25 mph breeze. That’s just a washing machine.

The second week, from the 9th of August onward, is a write-off. The swell hangs around 3ft to 4ft, mostly from the south, with periods between 14 and 20 seconds. That’s good groundswell potential, but the energy is moderate (around 700-900) and the wind is relentless, 19-22 mph from the east-northeast every day. It’s cross-off and strong, so the surface will be a mess. The 17th of August brings a return to a 5ft, 8-second east-northeast swell, but with the same fresh wind, it’s another no-go.

The standout here is Tuesday the 4th of August, morning session. That 5ft, 11-second swell from the east-northeast with the gentle 9 mph cross-off is the only window where the surf will be clean and have some push. The rest of the run is either too small, too windy, or too short-period. For a reef break that’s fairly consistent and exposed, this is a poor run. Crowds are possible on that Tuesday, but given the marginal quality, it might be quiet.

If you’re desperate, save your energy for that Tuesday morning. Everything else is a hard pass. Keep an eye on the forecast, but for now, it’s a long wait.

Rusty.

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