Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's break down what's coming up for Number Fours.

The start of this run is a bit of a dud. Don't expect much for the first week. We're looking at a long wait for the end of the month when things finally start to line up. The water's at 80°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so no need for a thick wetsuit.

The first week is a real struggle. Monday the 20th kicks off with a weak 3ft S swell. It's got a long 16 second period, which is nice, but a fresh 19 mph cross-off wind from the ENE is ripping across the face. The energy is a weak 595, so it's not moving much.

Tuesday the 21st is more of the same. A 3ft S swell with a 14-second period, but the wind is still a moderate to fresh cross-off. The energy is a bit better at 533 (morning) and 553 (afternoon), but the scores are still low. It's going to be a frustrating session.

Wednesday the 22nd gets weird. The morning brings a 5ft ENE windswell with a short 7-second period. A total no-go. The afternoon swaps to a 2ft SSW swell with a massive 23-second period, pushing the energy to 799. That's a long period groundswell, but it's tiny and the wind is still a fresh cross-off. It's a tease.

Thursday the 23rd and Friday the 24th are a real grind. The swell is small, around 2ft, from the SSW with a long period, but the wind is a fresh 22 mph cross-off. The energy is moderate (around 900-1000), but the conditions are just poor. The Friday afternoon gets a spike with a 7ft ENE windswell (7-second period) and a strong energy of 1129, but it's a short period, bumpy mess with a strong breeze.

Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th are still marginal. The swell starts to build from the east on Sunday, hitting 5ft on the morning of the 26th and 6ft in the afternoon. The period is a solid 16 seconds, so that's a proper groundswell. The energy jumps to 2208 and 2255, which is strong. But that wind is still a fresh 19 mph cross-off. It's a battle, but the swell is there.

Now, here's where it gets good. Monday the 28th of July is the first real standout. The morning brings a 7ft E swell with a 13-second period, and the wind drops to a gentle 9 mph cross-off from the ENE. That's a huge improvement. The energy is a solid 1663. The afternoon is even better: 8ft from the ENE with a 13-second period, and the wind is a light 9 mph from the NE. The combined energy hits 2184. This is the best window so far.

But the real winner is the morning of Tuesday the 29th of July. It's got a 8ft ENE swell, a 13-second period, and the wind is a light 6 mph from the ENE. The forecast calls it "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers," and I can see why. The energy is a massive 2000. The only thing is, at 8ft, it's getting big. This is for the experienced crew. The crowds are "sometimes" an issue here, so you might have some company, but for that quality, it's worth it. The afternoon of the 29th holds up at 8ft, but the wind picks up a bit to a gentle breeze, so the morning is the pick.

After that, things drop off again. The 30th of July sees the swell collapse back to 2ft, and the rest of the run into early August is a mix of small, short-period windswell or bigger, blown-out windswell. The 1st and 2nd of August have some 6ft to 6ft ENE windswell, but it's only 8 seconds and the wind is a fresh 19-22 mph. That's more of a kite-surfing setup than a clean paddle session.

So, to wrap it up: be patient. The first week and a half is a lot of wind and no real quality. The standout is definitely the morning of Tuesday the 29th of July. That's the one to circle on the calendar. It's a powerful, long-period groundswell with light winds. If you're an intermediate, stick to the Monday the 28th when it's a touch smaller. After that, the window closes again.

Rusty.

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