Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Number Fours has in store for us.

First up, the water temp is sitting at 79°F which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there. The opening stretch though? It’s a bit of a tough one. The first few days are all cross-off wind and messy, short-period windswell that’s just not coming together. Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th are a no-go – the wind is howling at 22-25 mph and the swell is a jumbled 6ft to 7ft of short-period junk. The combined energy is moderate (674 to 854), but it’s all wind and no shape. The score is a big fat zero.

Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th are still nothing to write home about. The swell drops right off to 2ft on Tuesday, and while the period gets long (14 seconds) from the SW, the energy is weak (308) and the wind is still cross-off. It’s a paddling session, not a surfing one. Wednesday the 15th through Friday the 18th is a similar story – small, weak, or short-period. The wind is relentless out of the ENE, and the wave heights are mostly under 3ft. The energy is low (175-411), and the scores are zeros.

We finally get a bit of a pulse around the 20th and 21st. Monday the 20th has a 3ft S swell with a 16-second period, giving us moderate energy (631), but the wind is still a fresh 19-22 mph cross-off. It’s a step up but still only marginal. The real interest starts on the 21st of July: a 5ft to 6ft ENE windswell picks up, combined energy is moderate (675-699), and the wind backs off a little to 12 mph. The score creeps to a 2, which is the best we’ve seen, but it’s still a pretty average offering.

Now, the true standout is the last two days of the forecast. On Thursday the 23rd, we get a proper long-period S/SW groundswell with a 20-21 second period. The combined energy jumps to a strong 996-1088. The wave height is only 3ft, but that’s a real, clean, long-period swell. The wind is a moderate 12-16 mph cross-off, and the score is a 2. This is the best quality of the whole run. It’s a reef break, so that long period will wrap in nicely. But don’t get too excited about the size – it’s not a big day.

The absolute best on offer is Sunday the 26th. That morning, we have a 5ft S swell with a 19-second period, and the combined energy hits a very strong 1505. The wind is a moderate 16 mph cross-off. The score is a 3, the highest in the whole forecast. That’s the one to circle. It’s a long-range call, so don’t book the week off yet, but it’s the only period that looks like it could actually deliver a proper, clean, reef-breaking wave. Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th are the only two days that look genuinely worth a look.

Bottom line: the first two weeks are a grind. The 26th is the best bet, but it’s a long way off. Keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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