Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at the forecast for Number Fours, a reef setup. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, but there’s a couple of windows worth getting excited about.

The wind is mostly cross-off from the northeast, which keeps the surface clean, but the real problem is the swell quality. Through the first week, we’re dealing with a lot of short-period, wind-driven swell from the east and east-northeast. The combined wave energy is moderate to strong (values between 800 and 1300), but the period is sitting at 7 to 8 seconds, so the waves will be lumpy, close together, and lacking that proper push. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual.

The standout here is Tuesday morning, July 28th. We’ve got a solid 7ft easterly swell with a 13-second period, and the combined energy is a very strong 1820 (moderate to strong). The wind is a clean 16 mph cross-off from the northeast. That’s a proper groundswell, and it’ll be lining up nicely on the reef at Number Fours. The direction is a bit east of the optimum SSE, but the power and the clean conditions make it the best on offer for the whole 16-day window. The waves will be a bit much for beginners at that size, but for intermediates, it’s game on. Crowds are possible here, so get in early.

The rest of the period is a bit of a grind. Wednesday, July 29th, the swell drops right off to 2ft, and the wind swings cross-on, so that’s a write-off. From Thursday, July 30th, through to Saturday, August 3rd, we get a run of easterly windswell. The size is there, 5ft to 8ft, but the period is a poor 7-8 seconds. The wind stays strong, 22-31 mph, so it’s going to be messy and blown-out. The wave energy is moderate to strong (650-1300), but the overall quality is low. This setup is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The second week, from Monday, August 4th, to Tuesday, August 12th, sees a drop in size and a change in swell direction. The swell drops to 5ft-8ft from the east-northeast, but the period improves slightly to 10-12 seconds on the 4th, before dropping back again. Then, from August 10th, we get a small, long-period SSW swell, around 3ft to 4ft, with a 14-16 second period. The combined energy is weak (around 500-700). The wind is still strong from the ENE, so it’s clean but the surf is tiny. Not worth a trip.

Honestly, outside of Tuesday morning, July 28th, it’s a waiting game here. The forecast can change, but for now, my advice is to pencil in that Tuesday and hope for the best.

Rusty.

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