Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get stuck into what’s cooking at Number Fours over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be honest with you – this is a tough stretch. The forecast is a real mixed bag of half-decent swell and some pretty nasty winds. The water temp is sitting at 81°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The main issue is that almost every day gets tagged as "marginal" or "poor." The first few days this weekend and into next week have some size, but the wind is a big problem. Saturday morning, September 5th, has a 7ft swell from the ENE with a 13-second period, and the combined energy is a hefty 2205, but it's a cross-offshore breeze at 19 mph. That’s a lot of wind on a 7ft face, and it's gonna be a bumpy, blown-out mess. The better option the same day is the afternoon, but it's the same story. Sunday the 6th is a little smaller at 6ft, but the wind is still howling. The chance of thunderstorms doesn’t help the vibe either.

Monday the 7th is a write-off. The morning has a 7ft swell, but the wind is a straight cross, causing a chop. The afternoon is even worse, with a 7ft SW groundswell rolling in from a 14-second period, but the wind swings onshore, and the energy jumps to 3676. That’s a lot of power, but with onshore wind, it’s going to be a washing machine. That’s more of a kite-surfing session than a paddle session.

The mid-week is a total wipeout. Tuesday the 8th has onshore wind and a 8ft swell – that’s expert territory, but with the wind howling on it, it’s just dangerous. Wednesday the 9th drops right off to 3ft, and the cross-offshore wind is back but it’s just too small to do anything with.

Now, if you’re patient, there’s a glimmer of hope in the second week. Around Tuesday the 15th and Wednesday the 16th, the swell picks back up to 7ft from the ENE. The period is short at 8 seconds, so it’s gonna be a bit dumpy and fat, but the wind is a light to moderate cross-offshore at 12-19 mph, and the combined energy is in the moderate range (1067 for the 16th). The sets will be quick and consistent, but it’s a short-period windswell – not the kind of wave that’ll peel down the reef like a dream. It’ll be a bit of a battle, but it’s the best of a bad lot. The crowd factor is "sometimes," so you might have a few others out there, but it won’t be a circus.

The last few days of the forecast, from the 18th to the 20th, drop back down to 3ft SSW groundswell with a long 15-17 second period. That’s a classic Number Fours direction, and the energy is still there (in the 700-900 range), but the size is tiny. For a reef break, a 3ft SSW groundswell with that long period can be a fun little wave if you’re on a log, but it’s not going to get you out of bed.

The Standout: Honestly, there’s no single day that screams "go." The best of the bunch is probably Tuesday the 15th and Wednesday the 16th. The swell is consistent at 7ft from the ENE, the wind is cross-offshore, and it's the most consistent run of the whole forecast. It’s not perfect, but it’s the only window where you’re not fighting the wind or the tide. For a reef, the ENE direction isn’t the optimum (that’s SSE), so it’ll be a bit fat on the takeoff, but it’s ridable.

If you’re a beginner, steer clear of anything over 5ft, and definitely avoid the 8ft day on the 8th. For the experts, the 8ft day on the 8th is a no-go because of the wind.

So, to sum it up: a frustrating start, a quiet middle, and a slightly better but still average second week. It’s not a classic run, but conditions can change. Keep an eye on the wind.

Rusty.

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