Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get into it.

We've got a pretty lean run of surf ahead for Number Fours. The next few days are looking tough with small, wind-affected swells and a lot of marginal conditions. The water is sitting at a warm 81° which is about average for this time of year, so at least you won't be freezing while you're sitting there waiting for a wave.

The first real chance of anything decent doesn't pop up until way down the track. From now through the first week of September, it's mostly a write-off. We're seeing small swells from the S and then ENE, mostly around 3 ft to 6 ft, but the period is short, between 6 and 8 seconds, which means weak, crumbly waves. The wind is a persistent cross-off from the ENE, blowing at 15 to 25 mph, which will keep the surface clean but the wave quality is just not there. The combined wave energy is weak to moderate, with readings like 929, 617, and 475, which tells the story.

Around the 6th of September, things start to pick up a little. On Sunday the 6th, we see a pulse of swell from the ENE at 5 ft with a period of 11 seconds, giving a combined energy of 680. It's still marginal, but the longer period is a step in the right direction. The wind is a moderate 15 mph cross-off, so it'll be clean, but the waves will be inconsistent. This pattern continues into the next week, with the swell building a bit more.

The standout, and I mean the only real standout in this entire forecast, is the morning of Tuesday the 8th of September. The swell from the ENE hits 7 ft with a 10-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 1315 – that's moderate to strong energy. But the key here is the wind. It's light from the east at only 6 mph, which is a light cross-off breeze. That will give us some of the cleanest conditions we've seen all forecast. The description says "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers", and that's no joke. At 7 ft, it's getting a bit solid for beginners, but for the experienced crew, this is the window. It's a long period groundswell, which is best on a reef setup like Number Fours, so the shape should be there. Keep in mind the ENE direction might not be the absolute optimum (the spot likes SSE), but with the size and clean conditions, it's the best bet.

After that, the swell holds in the 6 ft to 8 ft range with decent periods, but the wind gets a bit tricky again, turning cross and cross-on at times. By the 11th of September, we see a 10 ft swell from the ENE, but the period drops to 9 seconds and the wind is cross-on from the SE, which will chop things up. That's big enough for experts only, but the quality will be compromised. The combined energy hits 2209, which is strong, but the messy wind will make it a challenge.

So, to sum it up: you've got a long wait. The first week is a bust. The best surf on offer is the morning of Tuesday the 8th of September at Number Fours. It'll be a solid 7 ft from the ENE, clean with light winds, and the reef should handle the long period well. It's a promising window, but it's over a week away, so keep an eye on it. Everything else is marginal at best.

Stay patient, and I'll catch you in the water.

Rusty

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