Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright crew, Rusty here. Let’s talk about Number Fours and what’s coming down the pike for the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a grind, honestly, so keep your expectations in check.

The main story is a steady cross-off wind from the ENE that keeps the surface clean, but the wave quality is mostly poor or just barely surfable. The combined swell energy is moderate to strong, ranging from 425 to 2429, but the direction and period are all over the place. The first real chance to paddle out is on Tuesday, August 11th, but it’s a tough start.

Tuesday morning, August 11th, we’ve got a 4.6ft swell from the ENE, but it’s got a short period of 7 seconds, and the combined energy is just 425. The wind is a fresh 30 km/h cross-off, so it’s clean, but the conditions are poor. Not worth the effort. Tuesday afternoon the swell drops to 2.6ft from the SSW, with a much longer 14-second period, and energy climbs to 520. It’s still marginal, and the tide might be a factor.

Wednesday, August 12th, through Thursday, August 13th, the swell sits around 3.0ft to 3.3ft from the S and SSE, with periods of 16 to 18 seconds – that’s proper groundswell. The energy is up there, around 876 to 944, and the wind is still a clean cross-off. But it’s all marginal. For a reef like Number Fours, that long period groundswell should wrap in, but the size is just too small to get excited.

The end of the first week, Friday, August 14th, the morning is similar, 3.3ft S swell at 14 seconds, but then the afternoon turns into a messy 6.2ft from the ENE. That’s a poor shift. Saturday, August 15th, and Sunday, August 16th, see the swell build to 6.6ft to 8.2ft from the ENE, with periods of 9 to 11 seconds. The energy spikes to 1790 by Sunday afternoon. The wind cranks up to 40 to 45 km/h cross-off – it’s clean, but the wave quality is marginal. For a reef, that 8.2ft Sunday afternoon could be a rowdy one for the experienced crowd. It’s the best of a bad bunch in the first week, but not a standout.

Then we hit a rough patch. Monday, August 17th, the wind swings to a strong cross-on from the SE and SSE, up to 40 km/h, with thunderstorm risk. The swell is 7.9ft from the ENE, but the energy is a massive 2429. The conditions are poor, with a strong cross-onshore mess. This is more of a kite-surfing setup. Through Tuesday, August 18th, to Friday, August 21st, it’s a mix of tiny, short-period junk and weak groundswell. The wind stays cross-off, but the energy drops to the 200 to 500 range. It’s a write-off.

Now, here’s the one true standout. Look at Thursday, August 20th, afternoon. The swell is only 2.0ft, but it’s from the SSW at a very long 18 seconds. The energy is 543. The wind is a clean 20 km/h cross-off. The score is a 2 out of 10, which is the highest we see for a long time. For a reef like Number Fours, which is a bit inconsistent, a tiny, long-period, glassy groundswell can be a gem. The water is about average for the time of year. This is the one to circle. The crowds are sometimes a thing here, so on a tiny, clean day like this, you might have it to yourself. It’s the best on offer.

The second week, from Saturday, August 22nd, to Wednesday, August 26th, is a bit of a blur. Saturday the 22nd has a 5.2ft to 5.9ft ENE short-period swell with clean cross-off wind, but it’s marginal. Sunday, August 23rd, sees a 3.3ft SSW groundswell at 15 seconds, with 1063 energy, scoring a 2 – that’s another promising but small window. The last few days, from Monday the 24th to Wednesday the 26th, are a mix of ENE short-period junk and small S/SSW groundswells in the 2.3ft to 3.3ft range, with periods of 14 to 16 seconds. The wind stays cross-off. The energy is moderate to strong (672 to 1135). It’s all marginal, but the Wednesday the 26th morning session, with a 3.3ft S swell at 15 seconds and 1135 energy, and a clean cross-off, could be a sneaky little window.

The bottom line: the best day to be in the water is Thursday, August 20th, afternoon. It’s a tiny, clean, long-period groundswell that’s actually decent for this stretch. After that, Sunday

Read more