Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about Number Fours. The next week and a half? Pretty quiet. Don’t rush to the water. We’ve got a long stretch of small, weak surf before things finally show some life in the second half of the month.

Right now, the water’s a warm 81°, which is about average for this time of year. Nothing out of the ordinary.

From Sunday the 13th through at least Wednesday the 16th, we’re looking at tiny surf – 0.3m to 0.9m – with a long period from the SW. That long period is good for shape, but there’s just no push. The wind is cross-off from the ENE and NE, so the surface is clean, but the combined swell energy is low to moderate (133 to 682). The wave reports say it’s poor or marginal. Honestly, it’s a no-go. You’d be wasting your time.

Thursday the 17th brings a jump to 2.2m, but it’s short-period windswell from the ENE (7 seconds) and the combined energy climbs to 941. This is messy, choppy, and not what you want on a reef. The wind is cross-off but strong, around 35 km/h. It’s not clean, and for Number Fours, that’s a pass.

Friday the 18th is a bit better with 1.0m of SSW swell at a 17-second period. The combined energy is high (over 1000), and the wind is still cross-off. The wave comment says it’s marginal, but the quality is there. It’s not a standout – just a metre of swell – but it’s the best we’ve seen so far.

From Saturday the 19th through the end of the month, it’s a mixed bag. Swell heights range from 1.5m to 2.4m, mostly from the ENE and E, with short to moderate periods (7 to 13 seconds). The combined energy gets strong, especially on Tuesday the 22nd afternoon (1497) and Wednesday the 23rd (1441). The wind stays cross-off, keeping the surface clean, but the swell direction isn’t lining up with the optimum for Number Fours, which wants a SSE direction.

The best window is around Tuesday the 22nd afternoon and Wednesday the 23rd. We’ve got 1.9m to 2.4m of ENE swell with the period bumping up to 11-13 seconds, and strong combined energy (1497 and 1441). The wind is cross-off from the ENE. This will produce clean, punchy waves, but the direction is off, so it won’t be the classic Number Fours shape. Still, for the size and energy, this is the best on offer across the whole 16 days.

After that, it fades into the final week with similar, less exciting conditions. The swell drops back to 0.9m on the 28th, with a nice long period from the SSW (17 seconds) and strong energy (942). That could be a fun, clean session on a longboard, but it’s not a standout.

Overall, this is a long period of waiting. The first week is a write-off. The second week has some size and energy, but the direction is never quite right. If you’re a local, you might get a few fun waves on the 22nd or 23rd, but don’t expect perfection. The crowds at Number Fours can sometimes be an issue, but with this forecast, I wouldn’t worry – it won’t be packed.

Rusty.

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