Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get stuck into this outlook for Number Fours. Don’t go getting your hopes up just yet – it’s looking like a bit of a slow burn over the next couple of weeks.

We’re kicking off with a patch of pretty average stuff. The water temp is sitting at 81°, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing wild there. Right from Saturday the 29th of August, we’ve got a cross-off wind blowing hard at 25 mph and a lumpy, short-period 5 ft ENE swell giving the wave energy a reading of just 463. The conditions are just poor – that wind is killing any chance of quality. This tough run of cross-off winds and ENE swell carries right on through into the first few days of September, with wave energy climbing but the quality never getting there. It’s not until Wednesday the 2nd of September that something interesting happens.

On Wednesday the 2nd, the swell flips direction to a clean S swell, a proper groundswell with a long period of 16 seconds. Now, that’s promising. The height drops to around 3 ft to 3 ft, but the long period means there’s some proper energy in the water, giving us a combined energy reading of 848. However, it’s still crossed-off by a 19 mph ENE wind, so it stays marginal.

From there, it’s a real grind of marginal surf all the way through to the middle of the second week. The wind stays stubbornly cross-off from the ENE or NE, and the swell, mostly from the ENE, bumps up in size but never really cleans up. The best on offer during this whole period is shaping up to be the weekend of the 5th and 6th of September. On Saturday the 5th, we’re looking at 8 ft from the ENE, but with 25 mph winds it’s blown-out, so you’d only look at it if you’re desperate. The real standout is Sunday the 6th of September. By the afternoon, the swell is pushing 13 ft from the ENE with an 11-second period and the wave energy is roaring at 4141 – that’s strong. Sure, it’s still cross-off with a strong breeze, but there’s raw power there. That 13 ft swell is expert-only territory, no doubt about it. Just keep in mind this is a reef break with mostly an ENE swell direction, not the optimum SSE, so the shape might not be perfect.

If you’re a beginner, this whole forecast is a write-off. The swell tops 5 ft almost every day and hits well over 8 ft on that 6th of September, so leave the logs at home. Honestly, for most of this stretch, with the strong winds and solid swell, Number Fours looks like it’d be more fun for kite surfing than paddling out. The water does turn glassy on the 13th of September with a gentle breeze and an SSE swell, but the height is only 2 ft. It’s too weak to get excited about.

So, there you go. A long wait for that big, gnarly Sunday on the 6th of September. The rest is a lesson in patience.

Rusty.

Read more