Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Number Fours.

Right off the bat, I gotta be honest with you – it’s a tough start. The first few days are a write-off. The wind is howling from the ENE at 31 mph on Saturday, whipping up a 13 ft mess with a combined swell energy of (2667) – that’s powerful but useless. Way too big, way too windy. That’s not surf, that’s a survival session. Sunday isn’t much better, still lumpy and cross-onshore with 8 ft swell, and the rain’s coming down. We’re looking at a solid four-day gap of just poor conditions until things start to settle down.

Finally, by Monday the 17th, the wind eases up to a cross-off breeze from the ENE at 19 mph. The swell drops to a more manageable 5 ft from the ENE, but the period is a short 8 seconds, so it’ll be a bit soft and choppy. Still, it’s clean, and the combined energy is down to (662) – weak to moderate. It’s marginal, but at least you can get wet. The afternoon gets even smaller at 3 ft, but the period stretches out to a long 14 seconds from the south. That’s a bit of a tease – clean, but not a lot of push at this break.

After that, the outlook gets pretty bleak for the rest of the week and into the next. We’re talking tiny waves, 2 ft to 2 ft, for days on end. The winds stay cross-off or light, so it’s clean, but the combined energy is barely breaking (132) to (490) – weak. These are long-period swells from the south and southwest (15-18 seconds), which can be tricky on a reef break if the direction isn’t spot-on. There’s just no power to work with.

Now, here’s where it gets a little interesting. The very end of the forecast window, on Saturday the 30th of August, shows a real pulse of energy. We’re looking at a solid 10 ft swell from the ENE with a decent 14-second period. The combined energy jumps way up to (3591) – strong to very strong wave energy. The wind is a moderate cross-off breeze from the ENE at 16 mph, which should keep it reasonably clean. However, the score is still only a 4 out of 10, so there are some question marks – likely the direction isn't perfect for this reef, or the sheer size could make it unruly. For experts only at that size, but it’s the only real standout in the whole 16-day run.

Keep in mind, the water temp is about what you’d expect for this time of year, no major anomalies to report.

So, to sum it up: a full week and a half of nothing or near-nothing, then a late-summer pulse of big swell at the very end. That Saturday the 30th is your one shot, but it’s a long way out, so treat it as promising but not locked in. Forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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