Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer.

Well, mate, I gotta be straight with you – the next 16 days at Number Fours are a real mixed bag, and honestly, a bit of a struggle to find a clean window. The forecast starts on Friday, August 14th, and we’re looking at a pretty long stretch of poor or marginal conditions before we get anything worth paddling out for.

The biggest issue is the wind. We’ve got a persistent cross-off or cross-shore breeze from the ENE and E, often blowing a fresh to strong breeze. That’s going to keep the surface messy and bumpy. The swell is there, but it’s not doing us any favours. Early on, we’ve got a 7ft ENE swell with a short 8-second period, carrying moderate energy (963), but it’s just not clean. The wave comment says “poor surf conditions” and the score is a zero – that’s a hard pass.

The weekend of the 15th and 16th is a write-off. The swell jumps to 12ft, but that’s a near-gale wind and a cross-shore chop. That’s not surf, that’s survival. The combined energy is strong, over 1700 (1793), but it’s all messy. If you’re a kiteboarder, this might look interesting, but for us paddle surfers, it’s a no-go.

Things settle down a bit around Monday, August 17th, but it’s still marginal. The swell drops to 6ft, and the wind is a moderate cross-off, keeping the face clean. But the period is still short at 8 seconds, and the energy is moderate (712). The score is only a 1 out of 10. It’s surfable, but you’ll be working hard for not much reward.

The real standout, the only one worth circling on your calendar, is actually the afternoon of Saturday, August 22nd. That’s the one day the forecast says “expect good surf conditions”. The swell is small, just 2ft, coming from the SW with a very long 16-second period. That’s proper groundswell, and it’s hitting Number Fours, which is a reef break, so it’ll handle that long period well. The wind is a gentle cross-off from the ENE, keeping it clean. The combined energy is weak (375), but for a reef setup with that long period, the shape could be really fun. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, no major anomaly noted. Just keep in mind crowds are possible here, so you might have some company. This is the best on offer, no question.

After that, we’re back into a long run of poor conditions. The wind picks up again, and the swell is either tiny or blown out. The period from August 23rd right through to the end of the forecast on August 29th shows nothing but poor or marginal forecasts. The energies stay moderate, but the scores are all zero or one. The wind is a constant cross-off from the ENE, often fresh, keeping things messy.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a bust. The only real window is the afternoon of Saturday, August 22nd. It’s a small, clean, long-period groundswell at a reef break. That’s your best shot. Everything else is either too windy, too big and messy, or just plain flat.

Rusty.

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