Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The next couple of weeks are a bit of a mixed bag out at Number Fours. We’ve got a lot of clean conditions on the cards, but the swell direction is all over the shop, and the energy is playing games with us. It’s not going to be a total flat spell, but you’ll have to pick your moments.

The first real chance to paddle out looks like it’ll be Wednesday morning, the 5th. It’s not a lot of size, with waves around 3.9ft from the ENE at 10 seconds, and the energy is weak (347). It’ll be clean with a moderate cross-off breeze, but the tide and swell combo is looking questionable, so it’s more of a fun-sized novelty than a proper session. The afternoon is pretty much the same story, just a touch smaller.

Thursday the 6th and Friday the 7th are looking pretty grim. We’ve got a major drop in size, down to 1.3ft, with a long-period SSW/SW swell. The period is up there, 14 to 21 seconds, but there’s just no power behind it. The energy is weak to moderate (151-213), and honestly, it’s going to be a real struggle to get a wave. Not worth your time unless you need to sit in the water.

The weekend rolls in with a bump in size but a bad wind. Saturday the 8th sees the swell push up to 5.6ft from the ENE with a short, crumbly 6-7 second period. The energy goes moderate (519), but it’s a fresh cross-off breeze and the quality is just poor. Same goes for Sunday the 9th and Monday the 10th – it’s around 5.6ft of short-period ENE windswell, and even though it’s clean on the surface, it’s not a good look.

Tuesday the 11th and Wednesday the 12th see a shift back to a longer period S/SW groundswell. The size drops to 2.3-3ft, but the period jumps to a very long 15-18 seconds. The energy builds to strong (843) on Wednesday, but the wave quality just isn't there. This long period stuff at a reef like Number Fours can be decent, but the size is just too small to do anything with.

Thursday the 13th is more of the same, with 3.6ft at 15-16 seconds from the S, but the wind picks up into the fresh to strong breeze territory. It’s clean, but the size and wind combo makes it a poor call.

Alright, now here’s where things get interesting. From Friday the 14th all the way through to Sunday the 17th, the swell really jacks up, but with strong winds, mostly from the ENE at 25-28 mph. We’re looking at 6.6ft to 8.2ft of short-period ENE swell, and it’s going to be a messy, blown-out mess. The energy is strong, hitting 978 on the 17th, but with winds like that, this is looking way more like a kite-surfing day than a paddle-surfing day. It’s going to be big and powerful but not clean.

The real standout, and the only one worth getting excited about, is Monday the 18th and Tuesday the 19th. The swell holds strong at a solid 9.8ft, but the period lengthens out to 9 seconds, and the wind eases off. With energy levels hitting very strong (1478-1537), this is the biggest and most powerful swell of the window. It won't be for the faint-hearted. Anything over 8.2ft is expert territory, so only the best will be out there. The direction is still ENE, which isn't the optimum for this spot (it prefers SSE), so expect some wobbly lines, but the power will be something to see. The cleaner conditions on Tuesday the 19th make it the prime candidate, with a fresh breeze that should keep the faces fairly clean.

Looking into the 20th, the swell drops to 7.5ft with a more favorable NE wind, and the energy is still very strong (1307). It could be a fun, big day, but with that swell direction still not ideal, it’s a promise, not a guarantee, this far out.

So to wrap it up: the next week is mostly a washout. Your best bet is the 18th and 19th for a serious, powerful session, but it's really only for the experts. The surf will be big, but the quality will be the big question mark. Confidence is decent on that long-range call, but we’ve all been burned before.

Later.

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