Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’re lookin’ at Number Fours, a reef setup that’s gonna take a bit of patience over the next 16 days. The water’s sittin’ at 80°, pretty much normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The pattern opens with a bit of a flat spell, but the first real chance to get wet comes on Thursday, the 30th of July. We’ve got a morning window with 5ft swell from the ENE, period bang on 8 seconds, and a cross-off wind from the ENE at 16 mph. Combined energy’s moderate (583). It’s labeled as marginal, but for a reef break that loves a SSE direction, this ENE swell isn’t ideal. Still, it’s the best we’ve got on the table. The afternoon drops off quick to a tiny 2ft SSW groundswell with a long 18 second period – that’s a lot of energy for such a small wave, but it’s a long wait between sets.

Friday the 31st sees a jump in size to 6ft, same E/ENE direction, period still short at 8 seconds, but the wind is up to 25 mph. That’s a strong breeze, and with the cross-off, it’s gonna be a bumpy, blown-out mess. The combined energy climbs well into the moderate range (847), but the conditions are poor. Saturday the 1st of August pushes into 8ft swell from the E, but with 28 mph winds, that’s only for the brave or the kites. The energy is strong (1338), but the surface is gonna be a washing machine.

Sunday the 2nd holds around 8ft, still with that fresh ENE breeze at 22 mph. The wave quality just isn’t there for a decent paddle. This trend of big, windy, poor-quality surf continues right through to Monday the 3rd and Tuesday the 4th. The standout in this early part is probably Tuesday the 4th afternoon. The swell drops to 5ft from the ENE, period lengthens to 11 seconds, and the wind eases to a gentle breeze at 9 mph from the NE. The combined energy is still moderate (560), and it’s marginal, but conditions are the cleanest we’ve seen.

Wednesday the 5th of August morning is the best bet in the whole outlook. It’s the only session the finder mentions as “expect good surf conditions.” Swell sits at 4ft from the ENE, period 10 seconds, with a gentle breeze at 9 mph. It’s clean, it’s manageable, and the crowds are possible at this spot. It’s not a huge day, but it’s the one I’d be paddling out for.

Beyond that, we hit a proper flat spell. Thursday the 6th through the 8th are mostly poor, with small, short-period windswell and fresh winds. There’s a tease on Sunday the 9th with a 2ft S swell at 19 seconds – very long period, but way too small. Then Monday the 10th of August morning brings a risk of thunderstorms, but a 3ft SSW swell with a 16 second period, moderate breeze, and a combined energy of 1124. That’s a lot of energy for a small wave, but the long period could make it fat and lined up on the reef. The afternoon that day brings a cross-shore wind, so it’ll be a bit bumpy.

The rest of the second week, from the 11th onward, is a mix of small, marginal SSW groundswells and then more ENE windswell, but the wind is too strong and the quality is poor. Nothing worth chasing.

To sum it up: Wednesday the 5th of August morning is the clear standout – clean, small but fun, and the only session labeled “good.” Tuesday the 4th afternoon is the runner-up for a cleaner afternoon session. Everything else is a battle with the wind or just too small to bother.

Stay patient, and keep an eye on the sky.

Rusty.

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