Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about Number Fours.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this is a tough stretch. We’re looking at a solid 16-day window, but the first week is a write-off for any decent paddle surfing. The wind is locked in from the ENE at 19-25 mph, blowing cross-off. That’s not the kiss of death for a reef setup, but the swell is a messy, short-period 7 ft - 8 ft windswell from the ENE, with combined energy in the moderate range (around 790-961). The swell direction is wrong for this spot; it wants an SSE swell to really work. The water temp is sitting at 80°, which is about average for this time of year, so that’s one thing we don’t have to worry about.

We’ve got a solid 7-day gap of poor conditions before anything even looks marginal. The real action, if you can call it that, doesn’t start until the second week.

Now, the highlight? It’s the morning of Sunday, July 12th. That morning we finally see a switch. The wind drops to a still-strong 19 mph from the ENE, still cross-off, but the swell changes. We get a 3 ft groundswell from the SW with a long period of 16 seconds and combined energy of 758 (moderate). That’s the best direction we’ve seen for the reef. The waves will have that proper groundswell shape and energy, giving you long, clean lines. The period is long, so expect bigger gaps between sets, making the paddle out easier. But be warned, it’s still a small swell, so it’s not going to be pumping. Crowds are possible here, so don’t expect a solo session.

Monday, July 13th morning offers a similar look: a 3 ft, 15-second SW groundswell (671 energy), but with a few more clouds and the same fresh breeze. It’s a decent backup if you miss the Sunday morning window.

Beyond that, the rest of the second week slides back into that same old ENE windswell pattern, with heights between 5 ft and 6 ft, short periods of 7-8 seconds, and combined energy dropping into the weak to moderate range (232-533). The wind stays cross-off from the ENE, but it’s just not the right swell for the spot. On Thursday, July 16th, the wind does ease to a moderate 12 mph, which is a positive, but the swell is still that short-period ENE stuff. It’s marginal at best.

So, to sum it up: Number Fours has one real standout session, and that’s the morning of July 12th. Nail that window. The rest of the 16 days is a long grind of onshore, short-period slop. If you’re a kite surfer, that cross-off wind and consistent 7 ft+ swell in the first week will look interesting, but for the paddle crew, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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