Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Number Fours over the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, the outlook is a tough one. This is a reef break that’s exposed to swells, and right now it’s locked into a frustrating pattern. The water temp is sitting at 79°, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year, so nothin’ unusual there.

The first week is a real struggle. We’re looking at a solid ENE wind blowing at 18 mph, which is giving us a clean, cross-off look, but the wave quality is being called marginal at best. The swell is coming from the ENE, but it’s short-period stuff – around 8 seconds – and the energy is moderate (682). The wave height is 6 ft on Monday, but the conditions are just not cooperating. The same story repeats Tuesday through to the end of the week, with smaller 2 ft to 5 ft swells, but the wind stays up and the surf quality suffers. It’s all cross-off or cross-shore wind, and the forecast is calling it poor or marginal. The energy levels drop into the low-to-mid hundreds (260 to 574), and the period jumps around, but nothing clicks. Honestly, it’s a bit of a downer. We’ve got a gap of poor-to-marginal surf from Monday the 13th all the way through to the end of the first week.

The second week doesn’t get much better. From July 20th to the 22nd, we’re still seeing clean cross-off winds, but the swell is small and the energy is moderate (333 to 523). The wave heights are up and down, but the surf quality remains poor or marginal. The swell direction is mixed between ENE and S, but the period is short, so no real power behind it.

There is a glimmer, though. Look at the end of the forecast period, around July 28th. We’ve got a pulse of long-period swell arriving. The height jumps to 6 ft, the period stretches to 14 seconds, and the combined energy spikes to 1563 (strong). That’s the kind of groundswell that knows what it’s doing. The wind is still cross-off, but that’s actually a good thing here. The wave comment is still "marginal" but the score is a bit higher. This is the standout in the whole run. The swell direction is ENE, and the optimum direction for this break is SSE, so it’s not a perfect match, but the size and period are there. It’s a promising call for the 28th, but remember, it’s a long way out, so keep your fingers crossed.

For a break like Number Fours, which is a bit more exposed, this long-period swell will be the one to watch. Given the reef setup, it might handle the direction better than a beach break. The crowds can be *sometimes* a factor here, so if this one comes off, you’ll want to be early.

Until then, it’s a waiting game. The surf is poor, the wind is up, and the quality is just not there. It’s a blank run of about two weeks before we see a real chance. Don’t give up hope, though – the last few days of the window are the ones to circle on the calendar.

Rusty.

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