Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you—Number Fours is going to be a bit of a grind over the next couple of weeks. The wind is locked in from the ENE, blowing cross-offshore, which keeps the surface clean, but that swell direction is all wrong for this reef. The optimum swell direction is SSE, so we’re dealing with a lot of onshore, short-period slop that’s just not doing the spot any favours.

The first few days are a write-off. Saturday the 18th through Sunday the 19th, the swell is 5ft to 7ft from the ENE, but the period is a weak 7-8 seconds, and the combined energy is moderate (556 to 467). The wave comment says it all: “poor surf conditions.” Not worth paddling out for.

Monday the 20th sees a shift. The morning is still marginal with 4ft of ENE junk, but the afternoon flips to a 3ft SSE swell with a 16-second period—that’s proper groundswell. The energy jumps to 622 (moderate). The problem is the size is tiny. It’s a tease, really. Tuesday the 21st stays similar, 3ft SSE at 14 seconds, but still too small to get excited about. The wind is a moderate to fresh breeze, so it’s clean, but you’d be scratching for waves.

Wednesday the 22nd is back to the ENE mess. There’s a brief moment Wednesday afternoon where a 2ft SSW swell comes through with a 23-second period—very long period—and the energy is 772 (moderate). But at 2ft, it’s barely a ripple. Thursday the 23rd and Friday the 24th are poor or marginal, with the wind picking up to a strong breeze (25 mph) on Friday morning.

Now, here’s where it gets a bit more interesting. Friday the 24th afternoon sees a jump: 7ft ENE swell, but the period is only 7 seconds, so it’s lumpy, short-period wind swell. The combined energy is 1230 (strong). It’s marginal, but it’s the biggest we’ve seen. Saturday the 25th morning has 7ft at 8 seconds from the ENE, energy 1303 (strong). This is getting a bit chunky. Over 8ft, it’s expert-only territory, and 7ft is right on the edge for beginners. The wind is cross-off, so it’ll be clean, but the short period means it’ll be a bit of a wrestle.

The real standout—and I mean the only one worth marking on the calendar—is Sunday the 26th. The morning has 4ft from the east at 18 seconds, followed by 5ft at 17 seconds in the afternoon. The combined energy is massive: 1768 and 1574 (very strong). That’s a long-period, east groundswell, and even though the direction isn’t the optimum SSE, it’s the best wave quality of the entire forecast. The wind is a moderate breeze, so it’s clean. The sets will have proper push, and the long gaps between sets will make paddling out easier. It’s a reef, so that long-period energy will wrap in nicely. This is the pick of the 16 days.

Monday the 27th holds pretty well too—5ft to 5ft from the east at 15-16 seconds, energies in the 1270-1528 range (strong). Still riding that groundswell. After that, it fades. Tuesday the 28th through Thursday the 30th drops to 3ft to 4ft, periods shortening, and the energy drops back to moderate (443-818). Friday the 31st and into the start of August, we’re back to 5ft to 6ft ENE wind swell at 6-7 seconds—short, weak, and not offering much. The energy is 412-563 (weak to moderate).

So, the honest truth: the first week is a slog. The best window is from Sunday the 26th to Monday the 27th—that east groundswell has real quality, and the wind holds clean. If you’re a numbers person, that’s your only true standout. The rest is either too small, too short-period, or the wrong direction. Don’t expect a classic run.

Rusty.

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