Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I’ve got the lowdown on the next 16 days for Number Fours. This is a reef setup, so expect a bit of gnarliness under the surface.

The outlook is a bit of a mixed bag, really. The first week is a proper grind, with the wind blowing hard and cross-off from the ENE, making it tough to get clean lines. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, so no nasty surprises there.

The first real chance for a wave comes on Thursday the 23rd of July, but it’s barely a whisper. We’re looking at a tiny 2 ft SSW swell with a very long period of 20 seconds. The combined energy is weak (1006), and those 25 mph winds, while cross-off, are just too strong to make it any fun. The score is a struggle, so I’d give it a miss.

Friday the 24th of July shows a jump in size to 7 ft, but it’s a short-period ENE windswell of only 7 seconds. The wind is still a fresh to strong breeze, and the quality is still marginal. At 7 ft, it’s getting a bit much for the beginners, but the short, bumpy period won’t do the experts any favours either.

Saturday the 25th of July looks a bit better. The morning has 6 ft of ENE swell, period up to 8 seconds, with a fresh breeze. The afternoon sees a drop in size to 3 ft, but the period jumps to 18 seconds from the SSW. This is a proper groundswell, and the energy is moderate (1107). It’s still a bit of a battle with the wind, but that long period could offer some nice, walled-up sections on the reef.

The best bet in the whole window is shaping up for Tuesday the 28th of July. We’ve got 6 ft to 7 ft of ENE swell, with a solid period of 13 seconds in the morning and 12 seconds in the afternoon. The combined energy is strong (1354 in the morning, 1268 in the afternoon). The wind is a moderate to fresh breeze, still cross-off, but it’s the right direction for this spot. The swell is a bit overhead, so it’s for the experienced crew, but the potential for some long, grinding waves is there. The offshore wind direction is a perfect match for the optimum swell direction, so this is the standout session. Keep an eye on the crowds, as it could get a bit busy.

The run from Tuesday the 29th of July through to the end of the first week is a consistent mix of chest to head-high ENE groundswell, but the wind stays on it. The energy is moderate to strong, but it’s never quite clean enough to be epic.

Then we hit a dry spell. From Thursday the 30th of July, the wind starts shifting around, and the quality drops off. There’s a gap of a few days with no real recs, until we get to the 1st of August. That Saturday brings a 6 ft to 6 ft windswell, but it’s short-period and the wind is howling at 25 mph. Not worth it.

Sunday the 2nd of August has some size, 8 ft, but it’s still a short period windswell with a fresh breeze. It’s marginal at best.

The real tease is Monday the 3rd of August. We get a 4 ft groundswell from the East with a very long 16-second period. The energy is strong (1114). This could be a sneaky session if the wind drops, but it’s still a fresh breeze. It’s a long-range call, so keep your fingers crossed.

The last few days of the forecast are a slow fade-out, with small, weak swells. The 7th of August is a complete write-off with tiny 1 ft SSW swell and almost no energy (75).

So, to wrap it up: Tuesday the 28th of July is your best shot. The rest of the window is a lot of work for not much reward. Keep an eye on that Monday the 3rd of August for a potential long-period gem.

Rusty.

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