Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Number Fours is cookin’ up for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta tell ya, it’s a tough start. For the first few days, the wind is blowin’ straight out of the ENE at 18 to 22 mph, and while it’s technically cross-off, the swell is tiny and weak. Friday the 7th has a combined energy of only 192, and the water’s a warm 81°, which is about average for this time of year. But 1 ft of swell from the SW with a 20-second period? That’s a long-period groundswell, sure, but it’s just not enough to push through that wind. Poor surf conditions, and that’s the story all weekend.

We get a little bump in size on Saturday the 8th afternoon, with 5 ft from the ENE, but the period drops to a junk 6 seconds – that’s pure wind swell, short and choppy. The energy climbs to 474, but it’s still a mess. The wind stays strong at 22 mph. This carries into Sunday the 9th and Monday the 10th, with 5 ft of short-period, lumpy ENE swell. The energy is moderate, in the 400-500 range, but the onshore component of that cross-off makes it look more like a kite-surfing session than a paddle-in day.

Now, pay attention to Tuesday the 11th afternoon. The swell drops to 3 ft, but it shifts to the SSW with a 14-second period. The energy jumps to 545. It’s marginal, but that’s a cleaner signal. The wind is still a stiff 22 mph, so it’s not gonna be glassy, but it’s a step in the right direction.

The real standout, and the one I’m gettin’ excited about, is Wednesday the 12th and Thursday the 13th. We get a solid S swell coming through. Wednesday morning sees 3 ft at 18 seconds, with energy at 921. By Thursday morning, it’s 4 ft, still from the S, with a 16-second period, and the energy jumps to a very strong 1093. This is proper groundswell. The wind is still cross-off from the ENE, but it’s cleaner. That long period will wrap around Number Fours, which is a reef setup, and it’s exposed to the SSE. The optimum direction is SSE, and this S swell is close enough to be a beauty. The period is over 15 seconds, so expect longer waits between sets, but the waves that come through will have real shape and power. This is the best on offer, hands down. It’s moderately sized, not too big for most, but get on it early.

After that, things get gnarly, but not in a good way. From Friday the 14th through to Monday the 17th, we see a huge ENE swell build. We’re talking 8 ft to 12 ft of short-period (8-9 seconds) wind swell. The energy is off the charts: 1278 on Saturday the 15th afternoon, 1843 on Sunday morning, and peaking at 2252 on Monday the 17th. That’s immense, raw power. But the wind is a near gale at 31 mph at times. This is pure, churning, dangerous ocean. For experts only, and even then, it’s going to be a battle. The wind and short period will make it a bumpy, close-out mess. Honestly, this setup is way more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer.

The swell starts to fade Tuesday the 18th, with 6 ft from the ENE, but the energy is still moderate at 897. The wind drops to 16 mph, which is better. Then it gets tiny again, with 1 ft to 2 ft from the S and SW with long periods (12-17 seconds), but the energy is weak (51-255). The wind is still cross-off or light, and the conditions are “poor” or “ordinary” right through to the 22nd.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a write-off. The standout is Thursday the 13th with that S groundswell. The second week has a massive, dangerous wind swell that’s for experts only, and then it fades to nothing. The forecast is solid for the near-term, and the long-range standouts are promising but less certain.

Rusty, signing off.

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