Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s shaping up for Number Fours over the next couple of weeks.

First off, I gotta be straight with you – the start of this run is a bit of a bummer. We’ve got a solid long-period groundswell rolling in from the S with a period of 18 seconds, pushing around 3 feet, but the numbers are saying it’s a marginal call. The wind is a fresh cross-off from the ENE at 30 km/h, which keeps the surface clean, but the overall wave energy is weak (892). It’s just not coming together for a proper session. That theme sticks around through Thursday and Friday morning: the swell bumps up a touch to 3 feet to 4 feet, but that’s a S swell, not the optimum SSE direction this reef likes, and the wind stays a bit too strong. The combined energy hangs in the moderate range (809 to 903), but it’s still not firing.

By Friday afternoon, things get ugly. The swell direction swings to the ENE and the period drops to a short 7-8 seconds. The wind is still a fresh to strong breeze, and the surf quality is poor. Saturday morning sees a real spike in size – we’re looking at 10 feet of ENE swell with a moderate period of 11 seconds, and the wave energy jumps into the strong category (2166). But don’t get excited. That’s a strong cross-off wind at 45 km/h, and for a reef break, that’s just messy. This is one for the experts only, if anyone at all. By Saturday afternoon, the wind is a near gale at 50 km/h, and the surf is poor. Sunday is a write-off: a 16 feet E swell from a risk of thunderstorms, with a strong cross-onshore wind. The wave energy is huge (6108), but it’s a stormy, choppy mess. That’s kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing.

The first real standout window opens up on Monday, 17th August. The swell drops back to a manageable 6 feet from the ENE, period is short at 8 seconds, but the wind is a moderate cross-off at 20 km/h. The wave energy is still moderate (1074), and the score jumps up a notch. It’s clean, but the short period means it’ll be a bit fat and sectiony. The real diamond in the rough comes at the very end of the run.

The best swell on offer is the glassy SSW groundswell arriving on Monday, 24th August. After a few days of small, weak SSW swells around 2 feet, we finally get a clean 3 feet pulse from the SSW with a period of 13 seconds. And the wind? Dead glass. SSW at 5 km/h. The wave energy is moderate (488), and the conditions are expected to be good. This is a true standout for the mellow surfer who wants a clean, longboard-style wave on the reef. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, nothing wild.

Tuesday, 25th August, also sees some glassy patches in the afternoon with a 2 feet SSW swell, period 15 seconds. Another good call for the patient surfer. And Wednesday, 26th August, the afternoon session looks very good with a 2 feet S swell, period 17 seconds, and a clean cross-off breeze. The energy is moderate (525) and the conditions are expected to be very good.

In the second week, the pattern stays small but clean. The morning of 27th August sees a bit of a bump to 5 feet from the ENE, but the period is short and the wind picks up, so it’s marginal.

So, if you’re looking for the pick of the litter, mark your calendar for Monday, 24th August – that glassy SSW swell at Number Fours is the one. Tuesday afternoon is a close second. The rest is either too small, too windy, or too big and messy.

Rusty.

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