Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Number Fours. I gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough stretch ahead. We’ve got a whole lot of nothing good for a long time.

The first real glimmer of anything halfway decent isn’t until the morning of Wednesday the 13th of August, and even then, it’s a marginal call. The water temp is sitting around 81°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Let’s run through the next week and a bit. From Wednesday the 5th of August right through to Tuesday the 12th of August, it’s a write-off. We’re looking at mostly small, messy, or just plain poor conditions. The wind is hammering from the ENE at 15 to 22 mph, mostly cross-off, but the swell is tiny or confused. The combined wave energy is weak to moderate at best – you’ll see numbers like 165 to 506, which just isn't doing anything for us. There’s a period around the 8th and 9th where the swell bumps up to 5 ft to 6 ft from the ENE, but with a short period of just 7 seconds, it’s going to be fat and weak, not worth the paddle.

Then from Wednesday the 13th onward, things get weird. The swell direction swings to the S and SSW with some long-period energy – 16 to 19 seconds. That sounds promising, but the height is only 2 ft to 4 ft. The combined energy does spike into the 800s and even 1036 on the morning of the 13th, which is moderate to strong energy, but the size is just too small to make it worthwhile. The wind stays stubbornly from the ENE at 19 to 25 mph, keeping everything bumpy and crossed up. The period is so long it might just break too straight at a reef setup like this, and with the wind, it’s a no-go.

After the 14th, the swell picks up again from the ENE, hitting 7 ft to 8 ft, but the period stays around 8 seconds. That’s windswell territory, and with 19 to 25 mph winds, it’s going to be a messy, choppy, blown-out mess. The combined energy is high – up to 937 – but that’s just raw wind power, not surfable waves.

Honestly, the standout – if you can call it that – is the morning of Thursday the 13th of August. It’s the only time the combined energy cracks 1000, and there’s a touch of long-period S swell. But with only 4 ft and ENE cross-off wind, it’s a marginal, one-star sort of day. If you’re desperate, you might find a wave, but I wouldn’t get my hopes up. Crowds at Number Fours are sometimes an issue, but I wouldn’t worry about that here – no one’s going to be out.

The rest of the 16-day run is basically a gap. After the 13th, it’s all poor or marginal conditions right through to the 20th of August. There’s no second week highlight. This setup, with consistent ENE winds and short-period windswell, honestly looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

So, bottom line: keep the board in the car, but maybe leave the wetsuit at home. This one’s a long, flat, windy wait.

Rusty.

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