Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here, and I gotta be straight with you – this outlook for Number Fours is a bit of a tough one. We're looking at a long 16-day window, but the first week and a half is pretty much a write-off for decent waves. The good news is the water temp is sitting right on 79°, which is dead average for this time of year, so at least when the waves do show, you won't be freezing.

The first real sniff of anything half-decent doesn't come until Wednesday the 23rd of July, and even then it's only a marginal call. For the first week, from the 15th through to the 22nd, you're staring at a whole lot of nothing. The wind is relentless from the east-northeast, blowing 15 to 19 mph, which keeps the surface clean but the swell is tiny and weak. The wave energy is mostly pathetic, with values bouncing around a few hundred (162-730), which is just enough to mess with your head but not enough to get a proper ride. The period on the 22nd afternoon spikes to an insane 23 seconds, but with only 2 ft of swell, it's a tease. That's a groundswell, but it's too weak to do anything with.

Then things start to get interesting. From Thursday the 24th of July, we finally see a bit of life. The swell holds around 2 ft to 3 ft from the SSW, with a decent period of 18 seconds, and the wave energy climbs into the strong range (655-712). It's still marginal, but the wind is a steady cross-off from the ENE, which is clean. The standout, and the only real window you should pencil in, is Saturday the 26th of July. The morning sees a 4 ft swell from the east with a 16-second period, and the wave energy jumps to a powerful 1271. The afternoon gets even better: 4 ft from the east, same period, and the energy hits 1359. The wind is a clean cross-off at 16 mph. That's a proper groundswell, and with that long period, it's going to be a bit fat and straight on the beach break, but Number Fours is a reef, so it should handle it well. That's the best on offer – a solid, clean, moderate-sized swell with plenty of grunt.

After that, the 27th through the 30th churn out more marginal surf. The swell sticks around 3 ft to 5 ft, but the period drops and the energy backs off. The 29th afternoon has a short, punchy 5 ft from the ENE with an 11-second period, which could be a bit messy. The 30th is a write-off again with short-period junk.

So, bottom line: the first 8 days are a blank run. If you're itching for a paddle, keep your eyes on Saturday the 26th of July. That's your best bet. Everything else is a marginal call at best.

Rusty.

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