Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Number Fours.

First thing you need to know, there’s nothing worth paddling out for right now. The whole 16-day window is a tough one. We’re looking at a solid stretch of poor to marginal conditions with not a single standout day. The water temperature is sitting at 79°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

The pattern is dominated by a persistent cross-off wind from the ENE, often blowing at 18 to 22 mph, which is a fresh breeze. That wind direction is actually the offshore direction for this spot, so it’s not all bad news for the surface texture, but the swell is coming from the wrong direction almost the entire time. The optimum swell direction for Number Fours is SSE, but we are stuck with constant ENE windswell for the first week and a half. That swell is short period, mostly 7 to 8 seconds, meaning weak, lumpy lines that won’t hold up well on this reef.

There is a glimmer of something different from the 14th of July, where a small SW groundswell of 2 ft slips in with a 14-second period, but with only 260 to 285 combined energy, it’s weak and marginal. The wind is still a moderate cross-off from the ENE, so it’s not ideal. The 15th of July has a similar story, with a tiny 2 ft SSW swell at 14 seconds, but the energy is still low at 262.

The second week, from roughly the 21st of July onward, we start to see some longer-period signals from the S and SSE, with periods up to 15 to 18 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell, but the heights are tiny, only 2 ft to 4 ft. The real issue is that persistent ENE wind, which is still blowing 15 to 18 mph, cross-off. It’s clean, but the swell is just too small and too weak to get excited about. The combined energy does pick up a bit, with values in the 400 to 800 range, so moderate energy, but it’s never matched with the right size or direction.

The best the whole 16 days can offer is a couple of sessions on the 27th of July. Monday morning shows a 4 ft E swell with a 15-second period, combined energy of 1168, which is the strongest of the whole period. The wind eases to a moderate 15 mph cross-off from the ENE. That’s the most promising window, but it’s still cross-off, not truly offshore, and the swell direction is ENE, not the preferred SSE. It’s marginal, but it’s the best of a bad bunch. Monday afternoon sees a similar setup with a 4 ft E swell at 15 seconds, wind shifting to NE at 12 mph, making for a slightly cleaner look. Still, don’t expect the world. This is a classic case of a long-range forecast looking a little better, but it’s still far from a sure thing.

Honestly, this is a tough run. The reef at Number Fours needs the right combination of SSE swell and light offshore winds, and we’re just not getting it. If you’re desperate for a paddle, the 27th of July is your best bet, but keep expectations low. For now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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