Number Fours Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is Rusty, and I’m looking at the outlook for Number Fours.

Alright, straight up, the next week and a half is going to be a grind. To be honest, there’s no real standout window here, but we do have a pulse of better energy pushing in near the end of the forecast period. The whole run is plagued by a persistent cross-offshore wind from the ENE that’s blowing hard, usually 18 to 25 mph. That’s going to keep things choppy and messy, even though the wave faces themselves are clean. It’s a frustrating combo.

We kick off on Wednesday, July 8th, with a 7 ft swell from the ENE, but that 25 mph wind and 7-second period make for poor surf. The combined energy is moderate at 636. The water temp is sitting at 80°, with an anomaly of 0.7°, so it’s about average for this time of year.

The whole first week, from the 8th through to the 18th, the swell hangs around 5 ft to 8 ft, mostly from the ENE, with periods of 7 to 9 seconds. The wind stays relentless—cross-off from the ENE or NE, between 18 and 25 mph. The combined energy fluctuates, with the highest in that window hitting 1511 on the afternoon of the 18th, but even then, the conditions are rated as marginal. For a reef break, this constant wind and short-period swell is going to feel like a washing machine. It’s not going to be fun for paddle surfing; the setup here looks more interesting for a kite session than a traditional surf.

Then, finally, a change. On Tuesday, July 21st, the swell direction swings to the E, and the period jumps way up to 18 seconds. That’s a very long period groundswell. The swell height drops to 2 ft in the morning, building to 3 ft in the afternoon. The wind eases to 15 mph from the NE. The combined energy is still strong, hitting 1012 in the afternoon. This is the best chance we get. That long period means the waves will have more shape and energy, but it might break a bit straight on a reef. It’s still cross-off wind, but lighter. For a spot that’s fairly consistent, this is the one to watch, but it’s a long-range call, so keep your expectations in check.

Wednesday the 22nd offers similar vibes—4 ft to 4 ft swell from the E with a 15-second period, and winds still around 18 mph. The energy is high (1072 in the morning). Not perfect, but a lot more interesting than the earlier junk.

After that, it fades out on the 23rd with a drop to 3 ft and 13-second period, and the wind picks back up to 22 mph. The run ends with poor surf.

So, there’s a big gap of poor to marginal surf for the first 10 days or so, then a blip of promising, long-period groundswell on the 21st and 22nd. That’s our only real chance for a surf. The crowd factor at Number Fours is listed as “sometimes”, so be aware you might have company, but it’s not a circus.

Rusty.

Read more