Kaisers Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at the next 16 days.

We've got a long, drawn-out pattern on our hands. The first week or so is a real mixed bag, lots of cross-off wind and marginal conditions at Kaisers. It's not a write-off, but you'll have to pick your moments. There's a bit of a lull in quality right through the middle of the period, with nothing really firing until we get towards Friday the 18th, so be prepared for a solid gap of average to poor conditions.

Let's kick it off this Saturday, the 12th. We're looking at a clean, small 2 ft SW groundswell, riding a very long period of 15 seconds. The wave energy is moderate at 370. Water temp is at 81°, about 0.7° above average, so pretty normal for this time of year. The wind is a gentle cross-off from the ENE at 9 mph, which keeps the surface clean, but the tide's making it a bit tricky. It’s surfable, but you won't want to paddle out expecting bombs.

Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th are pretty much a write-off. Swell drops right away, with poor surf conditions both days.

We finally get a bit of a pulse building through the middle of the week, but the wind starts to howl. By Wednesday the 16th, the swell is up to 3 ft from the SSW, period still in the 18-19 second range, and the energy is ramping up strong (540-806). Problem is, the cross-off wind is a stiff 22 mph fresh breeze. It's a messy, blown-out kind of day.

Thursday the 17th is where it gets a bit weird. The swell jumps to 7 ft, but the period collapses to 8-10 seconds and the direction swings to ENE. That's a weak, short-period windswell, not a groundswell. With a fresh 22 mph cross-off wind, the wave energy is very strong (1395), but the quality is poor. This setup looks far more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Now for the standout. Friday the 18th of September is your window. The morning is still a bit average with a 7 ft east windswell, but the afternoon... that's the pick. The swell drops to 3 ft, but it swings back to a long-period SSW groundswell at 17 seconds, with strong energy (1060). The wind drops to a gentle 9 mph cross-off from the ENE, and the report says it's "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." That 3 ft of long-period SSW is going to groom beautifully on that reef, offering proper, clean lines. This is the one you target.

The following weekend, Saturday the 19th and Sunday the 20th, is a mixed bag again. Saturday has a clean 3 ft SSW swell with light cross-shore wind, but it's not all-time. Sunday jumps back up to 8 ft of short-period E windswell, which is messy and blown-out with a moderate cross-off.

The final week from Monday the 21st through to Sunday the 27th is a tale of two halves. Early on (21st-25th), we have a consistent run of 5 ft to 7 ft east swell with short periods (7-10 seconds) and moderate to fresh cross-off winds. The energy is strong (648-868), but it's all short-period, bumpy windswell. Not great for the paddle surfer.

Then, right at the end, we see a return of the longer-period SSW swell from the 26th, but it's small (2 ft to 2 ft) and the wind is up again, so the quality drops right back off. The run of good waves has pretty much ended by then.

So, to sum it up: get in the water for the small clean windows on the 12th if you're keen, but the real standouts are the afternoon of Friday the 18th and the morning of Saturday the 19th. That's your best chance for some clean, quality reef waves with decent energy. The long period SSW swell on the 18th will make for great shaped waves, but remember, with a period that long (17 seconds) at a reef break, expect some lulls between sets.

Stay stoked, and read the conditions before you head out.

- Rusty

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