Northcott Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s happening at Northcott over the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – this is a tough run. The whole 16-day window is looking pretty grim. There’s no real standout, no session you’d circle on the calendar. We’ve got a long stretch of weak, short-period wind swell and messy wind, so don’t get your hopes up.

Looking at the start, Monday the 20th through to the end of the week is all small, weak stuff. Swell heights are barely a ripple, mostly 1ft to 3ft from the NNW, with a super short period of 4 or 5 seconds – that’s just wind chop, not real surf. The combined energy is in the weak range (17 to 59), and the winds are either cross or cross-on, keeping things choppy and crumbly. Wednesday morning the 22nd has the biggest of that first week, a 3ft NNW swell, but the wind is cross and onshore, so it’s a messy one. Honestly, nothing here is worth paddling out for.

Now, there is a slight bump in energy on Sunday the 26th. The swell jumps to 6ft from the W, with a combined energy of 358 – that’s moderate energy, so there’s some push there. But the period is a short 7 seconds, and it’s accompanied by strong cross to cross-onshore winds (12 to 16 mph). This is going to be a lumpy, bumpy, blown-out mess. Too big for beginners at 6ft, but the quality is so poor it’s not even good for experts. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The following week, from Monday the 27th onward, we see a drop back to inconsistent waist-high leftovers. Swell sizes hover around 3ft to 5ft from the W and WNW, with periods still stuck at 6 to 8 seconds. The winds stay mostly cross-onshore, keeping a chop on the surface. The combined energy sits in the moderate range (around 100 to 153), but there’s no clean window to make it worthwhile. The best you’ll get is a couple of mornings with a gentle cross-shore breeze, but the swell is too weak and inconsistent to hold your interest.

The only real note of hope is the water temperature. The anomaly is basically average for the time of year, so no surprises there. But the surf itself? It’s a hard pass. The entire 16 days is a blank run. Unfortunately, for Northcott, this kind of quiet spell is more normal than not. Don’t bother rushing out; the forecasts might change, but right now, there’s nothing on the cards.

Rusty.

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