Northcott Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get this sorted. Grab a coffee, I’ll walk you through it.

Look, I’m gonna be straight with you – the next 16 days at Northcott are a tough watch. The water is running warm, about 66°, which is a solid 4° above normal for this time of year, so that’s a bit unusual. But the surf? It’s a struggle. We’ve got waves coming in, but the wind is almost always working against us, keeping things messy.

We kick off on Tuesday, the 25th of August. There’s a tiny bit of swell in the water, 1.0ft from the WNW with a 10-second period, and the energy is low (21). The wind is offshore from the east, so the morning looks clean, but the size is just not enough to get excited about. It’s a dribbler.

Wednesday the 26th of August is a bit of a tease. The swell is still small, 2ft, but the afternoon turns glassy – zero wind. That’s a major positive for clean conditions, but the wave height is just knee-high at best. The energy is weak (33). You’d be out there for the paddle, not the ride.

Thursday the 27th of August forget it. The wind swings around from the SSW, strong at 19 mph, and it’s cross-onshore. The surf is tiny and lumpy. Not worth getting the wetsuit wet.

Friday the 28th of August has a morning window with a light easterly offshore, and the swell bumps up to 2ft from the WSW. But the energy is still low (42). The afternoon gets messy as a 5ft, 6-second windswell arrives with an onshore wind, but it’s poor quality.

Things get heavier from the 29th of August through the start of September, but the wind is relentless. For example, Saturday the 29th has waves of 7ft from the west, but the wind is howling from the WSW at 19-22 mph, cross-onshore, making it a lumpy, blown-out mess. The energy is strong (509-533), but it’s not surfable in any traditional sense. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

There’s a pulse of bigger swell around the 5th and 6th of September. On Saturday the 5th, we see 8ft from the west with a 10-second period, and the energy is very strong (1352). But again, the wind is onshore or cross-onshore from the WNW. The same goes for Sunday the 6th of September, with 8ft from the west, a longer 11-second period, and massive energy (1525), but the wind is from the SSW and cross-shore. It’s raw and powerful, but not clean.

The last few days into the second week, like the 8th and 9th of September, keep the pattern of big swell and bad wind. The energy hits 2007 on the 8th – that’s very strong – but the wind is cross-onshore from the SW. The 9th of September is the closest we get to a winner: 5ft from the west, 11-second period, and the wind drops to a light breeze from the NW. It’s still cross-onshore, so it’s a bit choppy, but it’s the cleanest it’s been in days. A patient surfer might find a few, but it’s not a standout.

Honestly, there’s no standout session in this 16-day window. The consistent problem is the wind. If you’re desperate, the glassy Wednesday afternoon or the lighter wind Wednesday morning on the 9th of September are your best bets, but keep your expectations low. The conditions are just poor across the board.

Rusty.

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