Northcott Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's check out what Northcott’s got cooking.

Honestly, the next couple of weeks are looking pretty flat for a surfer. There’s a long stretch of tiny, weak waves and wind that’s all over the place, so don’t plan on much until the very end of the forecast. The water’s at 65°F—a little warmer than usual for this time of year, which is a small plus.

From Friday the 7th through the 11th, it’s all nothing. Waist-high slop at best—0.7ft to 1ft—with periods under 9 seconds. The wind is cross, cross-on, sometimes clean, but it doesn’t matter when there’s zero power. The combined wave energy is barely a blip, with numbers like 19 (just a hint of energy) and even as low as 7. Not worth paddling out for.

Then we get into the 12th of August. The swell starts to show a little life, rising to 2ft to 4ft from the west, with periods stretching to 10 and 12 seconds. The energy builds from 96 up to 269 by the 13th, which is moderate wave energy starting to show. But the problem is the wind—mostly onshore or cross-onshore, making it choppy and messy. The morning of the 13th has a clean offshore wind, but the swell is only 3ft, and the forecast calls it poor. Not worth the drive.

The 14th through the 18th are more of the same—small to moderate swell, but the wind stays cross or cross-on, and the wave energy drops back down. There’s a moment on the morning of the 16th with a clean 3ft, but the wind is a strong onshore 25 km/h, so it’s all blown out.

Now, here’s the one real standout. The morning of Wednesday the 19th of August. This is the only time in the whole run that the forecast says “expect good surf conditions.” We’re looking at a 6ft west swell with an 8-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 355—that’s strong wave energy. The wind is light and cross-offshore from the NE, meaning it’ll be clean. At 6ft, this is getting into the range that’s too big for beginners, but for intermediates, it’s a solid session. The crowd situation at Northcott is listed as “sometimes,” so you might have some company, but not a mob.

After that, the 20th and 21st drop off again with weaker swells and strong, messy winds. The 22nd looks like another pulse of 5ft to 6ft from the west, but the wind is onshore at 20–25 km/h, making it choppy and poor.

So, the bottom line: the first 12 days are a wash. The only real shot is the morning of the 19th. If you can wait, that’s your window. It’s a promise, but even that far out, it’s worth keeping an eye on.

Rusty.

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