Northcott Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me have a look at what’s in store for Northcott over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, I gotta be straight with you – this stretch is looking pretty grim for a proper paddle. We’ve got a whole lot of nothing happening for the first week, and even when things tick up a little, the conditions are just making it hard to get excited.

The first real shot at anything rideable won’t come until Sunday, August 2nd, and even then, it’s a tough sell. The guidance shows Northcott is a fairly consistent spot, but the whole 16-day window is plagued by poor surf quality and a lot of strong, onshore wind. This is one of those times where the forecast just isn’t lining up for us.

Let’s break it down. Through the end of July and into the first few days of August, it’s a write-off. The wind is howling from the NW and WSW, often over 18 mph, and the swell is small, weak, and accompanied by a short period. The combined wave energy is mostly in the weak to moderate range (between 12 and 376), and the water temp is about average for the time of year, so nothing unusual there.

On Sunday, August 2nd, the morning gives us our first real chance. We’re looking at a 4 ft swell from the west with a 7-second period, which is short-period windswell. The wind swings to a light offshore from the east at 6 mph, and the report says “clean”. The combined energy hits 159, which is moderate. The score is a 1 out of 10, so it’s surfable but very ordinary. It’s not a standout, but it’s the best we’ll see for a while. The crowd factor at Northcott is “sometimes”, so you might have a few others out, but it’s not going to be a zoo.

Honestly, after that little window, it gets messy again. The wind goes back onshore or cross-onshore, with some serious blows coming through. On Tuesday, August 4th, we’ve got a near gale from the WSW at 34 mph – that’s kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing. The swell is small and weak, and the energy is in the weak range (93). Just a blown-out mess.

The next blip comes on Sunday, August 9th, with another morning of light east offshore wind and a 2 ft west swell. The energy is weak (73), and it’s another “surfable but very ordinary” call. It’s the same story: small, clean, but not enough oomph to get excited about.

Monday, August 10th morning is the last little flicker. It’s glassy, with a 2 ft west swell at 9 seconds. The energy is still weak (83), and it’s rated as surfable. It’s clean, but tiny.

So, to wrap it up: the standout window is the morning of Sunday, August 2nd, with a light offshore and a 4 ft west swell. It’s not going to be pumping, but it’s the only time the stars sort of align. The rest of the forecast is a long, frustrating gap of poor conditions. Don’t plan your week around it, but if you’re desperate for a paddle, that’s your moment.

Stay patient, and keep an eye on the charts – things can change.

Rusty.

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