Northcott Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. I’ve had a good look at the charts for Northcott, and I’ve got to be straight with you – it’s a tough stretch ahead. This outlook covers the next 16 days, and honestly, there’s no standout, no day you’d be racing to get in the water. The whole period is littered with "poor surf conditions" on the forecast, and the one or two moments that are surfable are just barely that.

The story starts with a bit of a wait. There’s nothing worthwhile on Wednesday or Thursday. The first real chance you’ll have is on Friday morning the 11th. It’s not pretty, but it’s something. You’ve got a 4ft west swell with a decent 10-second period, which gives it a bit of push. The combined energy is moderate (299). The wind is light and cross-onshore, so it’s not totally clean, but it’s the best you’ll see for a while. Northcott is a fairly exposed spot, and this westerly swell is on the money direction-wise.

The water is a big talking point right now. The temperature is 66° and that’s a whopping 5° warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s really unusual, so you won’t need a thick suit.

After that Friday morning window, it’s a long, bleak run. We’re talking about a solid week of nothing. From Friday afternoon all the way through to the morning of Friday the 18th, the forecast is just a parade of poor surf with choppy, onshore winds. The swells are small and weak, and the wind is mostly cross-onshore or onshore, which just ruins any chance of a clean wave. That’s a full week where you’re better off doing something else.

You’ll see a flicker of hope on the morning of Friday the 18th of September. The wind finally swings offshore out of the NNE, giving us a light cross-offshore breeze. The swell is tiny, just 2ft, and the combined energy is weak (92). It’s described as "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions." It’s clean, but there’s barely any power. If you’ve got a log, you might squeeze a couple of knee-high waves, but you’d be paddling for closeouts.

The pattern then gets interesting, but not in a good way for paddling. As we roll into the weekend of the 19th and 20th, the swell size jumps up, hitting 8ft on the Sunday morning. The combined energy is very strong (871). But the wind is straight onshore from the west, and the period is short at 8 seconds. That’s a recipe for a complete washing machine. For a beach break, that much swell with onshore wind is a mess. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer. It’s just too big and blown out for a fun surf.

The final few days of the outlook, around the 23rd and 24th, see the wind go clean offshore from the east. The swells are small again, 2ft to 3ft, but the period jumps to 11 seconds on the 24th, which is a nice groundswell. The combined energy is moderate (166). The conditions will be clean, but the waves will be tiny. A long-period swell of that size on a beach break can be a bit tricky as it might break too straight, but if you’re desperate for a glassy session on a longboard, the morning of Wednesday the 24th of September is your window. It’s the cleanest forecast of the whole period, but don’t expect anything with any real power.

So, to wrap it up: there’s no single day that’s a standout. The best you can hope for is a clean, small wave on the 24th, or a mediocre, slightly bigger wave on the morning of the 11th. The rest of the time, the wind and swell just aren't playing ball. It’s a frustrating run, but that’s the coast sometimes.

Rusty.

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