Northcott Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's break down the next two weeks at Northcott.

It’s a rough start. Northcott is exposed to the west, and we're getting plenty of swell from that direction, but the wind is just trashing it from the get-go. The first real chance isn't until Tuesday, September 15th, and it's a write-off. There's a 6ft swell from the west with a short 8-second period, but it's howling onshore from the WNW at 19 mph. Water temp is a much-warmer-than-normal 65°F, but the conditions are poor with moderate wave energy (329).

This pattern sticks for nearly a week. Swell stays in the 4ft to 6ft range, mostly short period. The combined energy fluctuates but is always in the moderate to strong range (349 to 725). The issue is the onshore and cross-onshore wind from the west to southwest at 16 to 19 mph. It's just lumpy, messy, and unrideable. If kiting is your thing, the wind is there, but for a surfboard, it's a hard pass. The morning of Sunday, September 20th is the only slight breather. Swell drops to 4ft from the west at 10 seconds, and the wind eases to a light 3 mph from the WSW. It's still cross-onshore, but the combined energy is 283, and the forecast calls it marginal. It's been a week of junk, so this feels like a gift.

Finally, a window. Monday morning, September 21st. The swell is tiny at 2ft from the west with a 10-second period, but the wind goes glassy. The combined energy is a weak 96, but glassy conditions mean clean waves. This is a dawn patrol special for a longboard. The window closes by afternoon as the wind shifts.

We get another clean run from Tuesday, September 22nd through Wednesday, September 23rd. Swell bumps up a bit to 3ft-4ft from the west, and the period gets interesting, hitting 13 seconds on Wednesday morning (421 combined energy). The wind is light offshore or cross-off from the ESE and SE. That Wednesday morning, with a 13-second period and clean wind, is the absolute standout of the entire forecast. The size is small, but the quality will be there.

Then it goes south again. From Thursday, September 24th to the end of the month, it's mostly onshore slop. The one beacon is the morning of Sunday, September 27th. We get glassy conditions again, with a 3ft west swell but a long 13-second period. The combined energy is a solid 468. The data says 'expect good surf conditions.' That's a serious Sunday morning session to pencil in. The afternoon gets ruined by a 12 mph cross-onshore breeze. The second week is thin: a clean session on the 25th with 2ft waves and light offshore wind, and that one standout glassy Sunday on the 27th. After that, it's back to onshore wind and chop.

Rusty.

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