Northcott Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks are looking pretty bleak for a proper paddle. We’ve got a run of onshore slop and junky wind that’s going to keep the lineup mostly empty, and honestly, that’s about all you can ask for when the conditions are this ordinary.

We kick things off this Monday afternoon (17 August) at Northcott, but don’t get excited. The swell is a weak 3 ft at 8 seconds from the west, bumping into a moderate west breeze. The water’s sitting at 66°, which is a solid 4° warmer than normal for this time of year – you’ll feel that difference. But the surf itself is poor, so it’s a paddle-out for the diehards only, if you can find a corner.

Tuesday and Wednesday stay in the doldrums. Swell bumps up to 4 ft on Tuesday but the period drops to a jumbly 6 seconds, and the west-northwest wind is on it. Wednesday throws in some rain and a fresh west wind, with the swell pushing to 5 ft – but it’s all short-period windslop. The combined energy is weak to moderate, around 149 on Tuesday morning, rising to 207 Wednesday arvo, but it just means more messy water, not better waves.

Thursday (20 August) sees the energy jump a bit with a 325 reading, swell at 5 ft, but the wind swings northwest and goes cross-on, making it choppy and lumpy. Still poor. The whole first week is a write-off, honestly.

Then we hit a flat spell. Friday morning (21 August) has a glassy window with just 2 ft at 8 seconds and a tiny 75 energy reading – surfable, but very ordinary. After that, it drops off a cliff. We’re looking at knee-high mush through the weekend, with 1 ft and then 1 ft on Sunday. The wind goes offshore on Saturday morning, but there’s nothing to push. Combined energy dips to 28 by Sunday morning – that’s just weak, dead water.

Monday 24 August is about as flat as it gets, with 0.7 ft and energy down to 10. You’d be better off finding a swimming pool. This gap of several days with no real surf runs from Friday afternoon right through to Tuesday morning.

Tuesday 25 August brings a tiny pulse back, 2 ft at 10 seconds, with a clean cross-offshore breeze and energy at 78. It’s clean, but still tiny. Wednesday sees a bit more size (3 ft) but the wind swings cross-on, so it’s choppy again – no good.

The second week finally shows some life, but it’s all messy. Thursday 27 August has 4 ft from the WNW at 6 seconds, cross-on wind, poor. Then Friday 28 August, the swell jumps to 6 ft, and the energy reads 443 – a solid moderate push. But the wind is a moderate cross-shore from the south-southwest, so it’s a lumpy, cross-chop mess. Not worth the drive.

Saturday 29 August is the biggest of the window, with 7 ft at 9 seconds and energy cracking into the 600s. That’s strong wave energy, but the wind is howling cross-on from the northwest, making it a full-on choppy, blown-out circus. At that size and with that wind, it’s more of a kitesurfing day than a surfing day. Same story through Sunday and Monday, with fresh to strong cross-onshore winds and energy staying high – 364, 267, then 646 on Monday arvo with the swell at 8 ft. It’s all there, but it’s going to be a washing machine.

And the grand finale? Tuesday 1 September. The swell hits 8 ft with a proper 11-second period, and the energy readings are massive – 1230 in the morning. But again, the wind is cross-on from the southwest, so it’s heavy, bumpy, and just for the experts, and even they’ll be fighting the chop.

So, honestly, there’s no standout day in this whole 16-day stretch. The only thing that could work is if you’re desperate for a paddle on Friday morning (21 August) when it’s glassy but tiny, or next Tuesday morning (25 August) when it’s clean but small. Otherwise, this is a blank run, plain and simple.

Keep the board in the car, but don’t expect much. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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