Morro Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk about what’s happening at Morro Rock. I’m not gonna sugarcoat it, the next week and a half is looking pretty ordinary for paddle surfing.

The opening stretch is a real flat spell. From Friday the 3rd right through to Tuesday the 7th, there’s just nothing good to work with. The water temp is sitting around 58°, which is about average for this time of year, nothing wild there. The swell is small and weak, all windswell with a period of just 8 seconds, and cross-onshore or onshore breeze keeps things messy. The combined swell energy stays below 200 (75 to 205) through that period, real weak stuff. A few mornings have a light breeze, but the swell is too gutless to care.

We finally see the swell bump up a bit on Wednesday the 8th, but it's still not clean. Wednesday morning pushes 5 ft from the WNW (7 sec period) with 263 energy, and by Wednesday afternoon it jumps to 8 ft from the WNW (8 sec) with a strong energy push to 759. That’s proper size, but the wind is cross-onshore and choppy, and with that short period, it’s going to be lumpy. This is more of a kite-surfing setup than a clean paddle session. Thursday the 9th stays sizeable – 5 ft to 8 ft – but the comment says it’s poor surf, and the moderate breeze isn’t helping.

The first glimmer of hope comes on Monday morning, July 13th. The swell is 5 ft from the WNW (7 sec), with combined energy at 273. The wind is glassy – dead calm, no ripples. The forecast says “expect good surf conditions.” That early Monday session will be the cleanest we get, small but glassy. It won’t last – by afternoon the cross-onshore kicks back in.

Then Tuesday the 14th, we get a pulse. Morning sees 7 ft from the NW (8 sec) – that’s serious size, only for experienced surfers – and the combined energy hits a strong 1060. The wind is light cross-shore, so it might line up okay. The comment says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions,” so don't expect perfection, but this is the biggest push of the whole forecast. The wave direction (NW) matches the optimum direction (NW) for the spot, which is a good sign.

Into the second week, things get real interesting. On the morning of Thursday, July 16th, we get 7 ft from the WNW with 9-second period and a massive 1399 combined energy. Light cross-onshore. Then that afternoon, the period jumps to a very long 19 seconds – that’s a deep ocean groundswell – but the height drops right back to 2 ft. That long period will make it super clean and lined up, but with barely any height, it’s going to be tiny and setty. The direction is still WNW, close to the optimum.

Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th keep that long-period theme going (16-17 sec), but the size stays tiny – 3 ft to 5 ft. Combined energy stays in the moderate to strong range (660 to 843). The wind is onshore or light breeze. For a point break or reef, those long-period swells are dreamy, but Morro Rock is fairly exposed and a beach setup, so long-period groundswell can get too straight and wonky here.

If I were you, I’d pencil in Monday morning, July 13th, for the cleanest glassy small waves. The big standout for sheer power is Tuesday morning, July 14th – that 7 ft NW swell with light cross-shore wind is the best bet for experienced surfers. Beyond that, it’s a long-shot with that long-period tiny stuff.

Keep an eye on it – forecasts can change, but this one’s a slow burn.

- Rusty

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