Mimitsu Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The long-range models are showing a wild ride for Mimitsu, but you’re gonna need to be patient. The first week is a write-off, honestly. We’ve got a big, unruly swell pushing through on Thursday the 6th and into Friday the 7th, with wave heights hitting 18ft to 20ft. The energy readings are massive, like 13,173 and 16,759, but it's coming in from the ESE and the wind is howling cross-shore and cross-on. It’s a washing machine out there. The swell is way too big for this river break, and with that wind, it’s just a mess. Kite surfers might be having a blast, but for us paddle surfers, it’s a no-go. The following days, from the 8th through the 10th, the swell drops but the wind stays cross-on, and the forecast is just calling it “poor surf conditions.” We're looking at 7ft to 10ft of lumpy, choppy junk. Not worth paddling out for.

Now, here’s where the patience part comes in. After that first pulse fades, there’s a real lull. From the 11th to the 14th, we’ve got tiny, weak waves around 3ft to 6ft. The energy is pitiful, readings in the 200s and 600s. It’s marginal at best, and some windows are just flat and poor. You’d be fighting for ankle-biters. Keep your board in the car but don’t get your hopes up.

Then, on Saturday the 15th, things finally line up. The morning and afternoon both show light offshore or glassy conditions from the NNE and WNW. The swell is a bit more organised at 6ft from the E with an 11-second period. The energy is still modest at 803, but the clean conditions make it look like the best bet in this whole stretch. It’ll be small but clean, and at Mimitsu, a river break, that long period could make it a bit straight, but the lack of wind will help. This is a highlight, but it’s not a big-wave day.

After that, we go into another stretch of mediocrity from the 16th to the 19th. Cross-shore winds, rain, and weak swell around 4ft to 6ft with short periods. It’s just not doing anything. The energy readings are low, consistently in the 300s and 600s. It’s a real grind.

But hold on, because the long-range stuff is showing a proper reward for your patience. On Thursday the 20th, we’ve got a standout morning. The swell is 8ft from the ESE with a 10-second period, and the wind is light and cross-off from the NE. The energy jumps to 1,086, and the forecast is calling it “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” This is the one to circle on the calendar. Mimitsu is a river break, so a solid 8ft of ESE groundswell with clean conditions could be firing. The water temp is 84°, which is right around average for this time of year, so it’s warm out there. Just remember, this is over a week and a half away, so treat it as promising, not a done deal.

Friday the 21st also has a decent morning with 7ft from the E and light offshore winds, but the afternoon looks to shift and drop off. So, the real standout in this whole 16-day window is the morning of the 20th. Before that, the 15th is your best early call for some clean, smaller waves. Everything else is either too big and messy or too small and weak. Stay patient, keep your eye on the 20th, and don’t bother with the rest.

Rusty.

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