Medewi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s cut to it: the next couple of weeks at Medewi are going to test your patience. We’ve got a solid window of surf coming, but it’s mostly going to be a fight against the wind and chop. The water’s sitting at 80°, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real chance to get wet starts Tuesday the 15th. We’ve got a 4ft swell rolling in from the southwest, with a long 15-second period. That’s real groundswell energy, but the wind is coming from the SSE at 12 mph, so it’s cross-onshore and choppy. The energy reading is only 685, which is weak, and honestly, the surf is going to be a mess. Not worth paddling out for.

Wednesday the 16th is much the same story, with a 4ft swell and the wind easing slightly to 9 mph, but it’s still cross-onshore and fairly choppy. Thursday the 17th sees the swell bump up to 5ft, and the energy jumps to a moderate 1127, but the wind is still on it, keeping things marginal.

Finally, on Friday the 18th, we get a break. The wind swings around to the SSW at 6 mph and it’s offshore. The swell drops a touch to 4ft, but with that clean wind and a 14-second period, this is your best early call. The energy is only moderate at 517, but the clean conditions will make it fun for beginners. Later that afternoon, the wind goes back to the southeast, so get on it early.

Saturday the 19th and Sunday the 20th are more of the same cross-onshore slop, with waves around 3ft and 5ft respectively. The energy stays moderate, but the quality just isn’t there. Monday the 21st is a little better with a 4ft swell and light winds, but it’s still cross-onshore.

Then we hit a bit of a lull. Tuesday the 22nd and Wednesday the 23rd start to mix it up. The swell drops to 3ft on Tuesday but with a very long 18-second period, which is interesting, but the wind is still cross-onshore. Wednesday the 23rd is the first sign of something bigger, with the swell jumping to 5ft and energy climbing to a strong 1179. Still, the wind ruins it.

Thursday the 24th drops back slightly to 4ft, and Friday the 25th is poor again with 4ft and a shorter, less organized swell.

Now, here’s where things get interesting. For the second week, keep your eyes on Saturday the 26th. That’s the standout. The swell is forecast to jump to 7ft in the morning, pushing to 8ft in the afternoon, from the SSW. The period is a very long 21 seconds, and the energy reading is a massive 4089, jumping to 4784. This is a serious groundswell. The wind is still cross-onshore at 9-12 mph, so it won’t be glassy, but with this much juice, it’s going to be powerful. This is expert territory – over 8ft is only for the experienced crew. And remember, this long-period swell might break a bit too straight at certain spots, but Medewi (a beach and point setup) should handle it.

Sunday the 27th keeps the size, with 8ft in the morning and 7ft in the afternoon, energy still very strong at 3509. The wind eases slightly but remains cross-onshore. Monday the 28th is still solid, with 6ft and strong energy, but it’s starting to fade.

After that, the swell backs off into a more normal, smaller pattern for the end of the month.

So, bottom line: the first real clean window is Friday the 18th. It’s not big, but it’s clean. The big one to watch is Saturday the 26th and Sunday the 27th – that’s the true standout for size and power, but it’s for experts only and the wind is going to be a factor. It’s a long-range call, so treat it as promising but not set in stone. It’s a long dry spell before that, though, so if you’re keen, get on Friday.

Rusty out.

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