Medewi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this stretch is a bit of a grind. We’ve got a solid window of south swell pushing through, but the wind is going to be the constant thorn in our side. It’s mostly cross-onshore, which means the surface is going to be lumpy and chopped up more often than not. The energy is there, but the quality is going to be a fight.

The first few days, through Friday the 7th and into the weekend, are all about consistency rather than perfection. Swell is hovering around 6ft from the SSW with a healthy 16-17 second period, and the energy is strong, reading 1958 on Friday afternoon. But the 15-20 km/h SE breeze is going to keep things fairly choppy. It’s not going to be a total write-off, but you’ll be working for the good ones.

The real standout in this whole run looks like Monday the 10th. The morning is smallish at 5ft, but that swell is carrying a long 19-second period, and the energy is pumping at 2360. The wind drops to a light 10 km/h breeze, which is the best we’ll see for a while. It’s still cross-onshore, but with that light wind, it’ll be the cleanest the lineup gets. Then that afternoon, the swell jumps to 8ft with an 18-second period and energy up at 3404. That’s the pick of the week. The waves will be powerful and lined up, but that size is getting into the range where it’s no longer a beginner’s playground. It’s a proper groundswell, so the point at Medewi (Jembrana) will be handling it far better than a beach break would.

The middle of the week, Tuesday the 11th, holds at 8ft with energy peaking at 4117, but the wind picks back up to 15 km/h and the chop returns. Still surfable, still powerful, but not as clean as Monday. By Wednesday the 12th, the swell eases back to 6ft and the period drops to 15 seconds. The energy is weaker at 1567, and it feels like the pulse is fading.

Then we get a second pulse building into Thursday the 13th. The swell punches back up to 8ft from the SSW with a 17-second period, and the energy is strong at 3864. That’s a serious amount of water moving. But at 8ft, this is expert territory only. The wind is still cross-onshore at 15-20 km/h, so it’s going to be a raw, powerful, and messy session. You’ll need your wits about you.

After that, the swell backs off a bit into Friday and Saturday, but the wind stays annoying. Saturday the 15th morning drops to 4ft with a good 18-second period and light winds, but the energy is only at 1628. It’s a brief window of cleaner, smaller waves before the afternoon bumps back up to 6ft with the breeze picking up again.

Then we hit a rough patch. Sunday the 16th afternoon through Tuesday the 18th is genuinely poor. The swell drops, the wind cranks up to 25 km/h, and it’s just choppy, blown-out slop. The energy drops below 1100, and it’s not worth paddling out. That’s a solid three-day gap of nothing.

The swell tries to rebuild from Wednesday the 19th, with 6-7ft SSW swell and 17-18 second periods, but the wind is still cross-onshore at 20 km/h. It’s better than the weekend, but still not great. By Thursday the 20th, the wind eases to 10-15 km/h and the swell is back to 7ft, but the energy is moderate at 2536. It’s a slight improvement, but the long-range picture is still just “promising” rather than “go-time.”

The final few days, into the 21st and 22nd, see the swell fade back down to 6ft and then 5ft. The wind stays cross-onshore or goes cross-shore, but the energy is dropping off. It’s a fizzle, not a bang.

So, bottom line: if you want the best wave this fortnight, you’re looking at Monday the 10th. That’s the standout. The swell is big, the period is long, and the wind is the lightest it’s going to be. Get on it early. The second look is Thursday the 13th, but that’s only for the experienced crew. Other than that, it’s a lot of chop and a bit of a waiting game.

Water temp is running about average for this time of year, so it’s not a factor. Just bring your patience and your best paddling arms.

Catch you in the water.

Rusty.

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