Medewi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright mates, Rusty here. Let’s break down this 16-day stretch for Medewi. It’s a long outlook, and I gotta be honest with you – the wind is the main character here, and it’s a bit of a villain. The swell is coming from the SSW, which is a great direction for this spot, but we’ve got a persistent cross-onshore breeze from the SE that’s going to keep things bumpy and choppy. The water is a warm 81°, which is pretty standard for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first chance to get a wave comes on Monday, July 13th, but it’s not promising. The morning has a weak 3ft SE windswell with a short 6-second period, and the cross-onshore wind is making it a choppy mess. The afternoon drops to 2ft, even though the period jumps to 21 seconds from the SSW – a tease of better energy – but the wind is still cross-shore and messy. The combined energy is weak (214 in the morning). It’s a day to stay on the beach.

Tuesday the 14th looks a bit more interesting. We get a proper SSW groundswell pushing 4ft to 5ft with a long 17-18 second period. The combined energy is way up (1525 to 1693), so there’s real power in the water. But again, the wind is cross-onshore, making it “fairly choppy.” It’s frustrating – the swell is there, but the surface is bumpy. It’s a marginal day, but you might find a few if you’re keen.

Wednesday the 15th is the pick of the first week. The swell is 5ft to 4ft, with long 16-second periods and strong energy (1292 to 1043). The afternoon actually turns a bit more cross-shore, which cleans it up slightly. This is your best bet for the early part of the forecast. After that, it’s a tough slog. The rest of the week into the weekend sees the swell drop to 3ft-3ft, the wind stays onshore, and the energy numbers fall into the 300-500 range. It’s poor surf.

Looking into the second week, there’s a pulse of energy on Monday the 20th: a 6ft to 6ft SSW groundswell with a 16-17 second period and massive energy (1703 to 1653). That’s a proper swell. But the wind is still cross-onshore and later cross-shore, so it’s going to be a battle. It’s a promising long-range call, but it’s a gamble. After that, it fades back to 3ft-5ft with the same wind story, so nothing to get truly excited about until Friday the 24th and Saturday the 25th, where the swell pushes back up to 5ft-5ft with 16-18 second periods. The energy spikes again (2012 and 1573), but it’s the same old story: cross-onshore wind and chop.

If I had to call a standout, it’s Wednesday the 15th afternoon. The swell is solid, the period is long, and the wind is the least offensive of the whole forecast. For the second week, Monday the 20th is a wildcard, but it’s a long way out and the wind could ruin it.

The combined energy in the 1500-2000 range is moderate to strong, but it’s all being wasted by the wind. For a point break like Medewi, which is fairly consistent, this is a frustrating forecast. It’s not a total blank, but it’s a lot of near-misses. Keep an eye on the wind, because the swell is there. If that SE breeze backs off, this place would be pumping.

Rusty.

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