Balian Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – the next couple of weeks at Balian (reef) are a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got a consistent pulse of SSW swell rolling in, but the winds are mostly coming from the SSE and SE, which means we’re looking at cross-shore or cross-onshore conditions most of the time. Nothing truly glassy or offshore to get overly excited about, and the wave comments are all “marginal” or “poor,” so don’t expect perfection. Still, there are a few windows where the swell size and lighter winds might give you something half-decent for an intermediate surfer.

We start off Thursday, August 13, with a solid 7.2ft to 7.5ft SSW swell, period around 16 to 17 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell with some punch. Combined wave energy is strong, reading 2548 to 2717. Problem is, it’s cross-shore with a moderate SSE breeze at 12 to 13 mph, so there’s a bit of cross-chop. Water temp is 79.3°, which is about average for this time of year. Not a standout, but if you’re keen, the size is there for intermediates who can handle a bit of texture.

Friday the 14th, the swell drops a touch to 5.6ft to 6.2ft, still long-period around 15 to 16 seconds. Morning is cross-onshore and choppy with 13 mph SSE wind – not great. Afternoon lightens to 9 mph SE, cross-shore with slight chop, maybe a bit more manageable. Energy is still moderate (1887 to 1562).

Saturday the 15th, swell holds around 5.9ft with 17-second periods. Winds are lighter, 6 to 9 mph SSE, cross-shore, with small ripples in the afternoon. Energy is moderate (1878 to 1852). This is probably the most user-friendly morning of the first weekend – not clean, but not a washing machine either.

Sunday the 16th, the swell drops to 4.9ft to 5.2ft, still long-period around 15 to 16 seconds. Winds are 9 mph SSE to S, cross to cross-onshore, so a bit choppy again. Energy is dropping (1271 to 1062).

Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th, we see a dip – swell down to 3.3ft to 4.9ft, periods around 14 to 16 seconds. Tuesday afternoon picks up a little with light 6 mph SE winds, but energy is low to moderate (493 to 1215). Nothing to write home about.

Now, here’s the most promising window: Wednesday the 19th and Thursday the 20th. On Wednesday, the swell bumps up to 5.6ft to 6.2ft with a very long 18-second period – that’s proper groundswell energy. Combined energy jumps to 1737 to 2205. Winds are light in the afternoon (6 mph SSE, cross-shore), so the chop is minimal. Thursday the 20th holds 5.9ft to 6.6ft, 16-second period, with a gentle cross-shore breeze at 9 mph. Energy is still strong at 1977 to 1623. These two afternoons are your best bet: the waves will have that long-period push, plenty of shape for a reef, and the wind isn’t ruining it. Just remember, with a 17-to-18-second period, the sets will be spaced out – good for paddling out, but you’ll be waiting a bit between bombs.

After that, from Friday the 21st onward, the swell settles into the 4.3ft to 5.6ft range, periods dropping to 13 to 16 seconds, and winds stay cross-shore at 9 to 13 mph. Energy bounces between moderate to low (918 down to 503). There are a couple of days, like Sunday the 23rd and Monday the 24th, where the conditions are described as “poor,” so I’d give those a miss. The tail end around August 26, 27, and 28 shows some 4.6ft to 4.9ft SSW swell with 16 to 17-second periods and moderate cross-shore winds, but nothing that stands out as special.

So, if you’re picking a standout, Wednesday afternoon, August 19, is your best shot – that 6.2ft, 18-second SSW swell with light cross-shore breeze will produce the cleanest, most powerful waves of the whole run. Thursday the 20th afternoon is a close second. The rest is just average, a bit lumpy, and only really for consistent intermediate crew who know the reef and don’t mind the chop. No beginners should be out there when it’s over 5ft, especially with that long period – this reef will have some grunt.

That’s the story, mate. Stay sharp.

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