Le Kerou Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m gonna be straight with you – this stretch for Le Kerou is a tough one to write. We’ve got a solid 16-day window ahead, but the first week and a half or so is pretty much a write-off. It’s not until we get into the second week that a few glimmers show up, but even then, it’s more about the conditions being tolerable rather than pumping surf. There are some big gaps here, especially right at the start, with no decent waves on offer until Tuesday the 1st of September, and even that’s a struggle.

Alright, so from Sunday the 30th of August right through, it’s a grim scene. Onshore winds are in the driver's seat, with moderate to fresh breezes from the WSW and W just destroying any chance of a clean wave. The swell is there, but it’s all wind-slop. On the Sunday morning we’re looking at 5.2ft from the WSW, but the period is a short and weak 8 seconds, and the combined energy is a moderate 435 – but the wind is howling onshore at 12 mph, so the surface is just blown out. It gets worse into the arvo with the wind picking up to 19 mph.

Monday the 31st is even bigger, with the swell pushing 6.9ft to 7.2ft from the W and WSW, with periods stretching to 10 seconds. The combined energy jumps right up, hitting 1576 on Monday afternoon – that’s strong wave energy – but it’s all cross-onshore and lumpy. The wind is a full 19 mph again. This is proper messy, big, and choppy. For a beginner spot like this, those 6.9ft to 7.2ft waves are too big anyway.

Then on Tuesday the 1st of September, we get the one tiny highlight of this whole early period. The morning is glassy – absolutely zero wind, a calm wind state. The swell has dropped right back to 3.3ft, coming from the west with a 9-second period. The combined energy is a low 169. The report says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions,” which is about right. It’s small and weak, but it’s glassy. For about four hours, you could get a few soft, clean little waves if you’re a beginner or on a longboard. But that’s it. The afternoon sees the wind swing back onshore and it’s back to poor.

From there, we go into a real dead zone. Wednesday the 2nd through to Friday the 4th of September is just a procession of onshore winds, tiny swell (1.6ft to 4.9ft), and directions that don’t fit the optimum westerly. The combined energy is all under 200 except for Friday, when it gets back up to moderate numbers (594 and 628) as the swell picks up to 4.9ft from the west with a 12-second period. But again, cross-onshore winds at 12 mph ruin it.

Now, finally, on Saturday the 5th of September, things look a bit better. The morning has the wind swinging offshore from the NNE at only 6 mph. The swell is 3.9ft from the west with a nice 12-second period, and the combined energy is a moderate 376. The wave comment says “expect good surf conditions,” and the report calls it “clean.” This is your best chance in the whole 16-day window. The water temp is sitting around 66°F, and the anomaly is only +1.1°F, so pretty average for this time of year. For a break that’s fairly consistent, it’s a nice turnaround. It’s small, but clean, and the offshore wind will make it look pretty.

After that, we’re straight back into the doldrums. Sunday the 6th through the rest of the week sees the swell drop to nothing – 1.3ft to 2.0ft – with weak energy (24 to 77), and while the wind is occasionally cross-off or clean, there’s just no power in the water. A few spots on the 11th and 12th of September have very clean conditions with offshore winds from the NE, but the swell is tiny (1.6ft to 3.3ft) and the period is short on the 11th (7 seconds), so you’re just bobbing around.

The very tail end, around the 14th of September, shows a bit of promise, but it’s too far out to get too excited about. The wind is cross-off from the east at 12 mph, but it’s still only 1.6ft and weak.

Honestly, if you’re desperate for a paddle, your one standout is the Saturday morning, the 5th of September at Le Kerou. The swell is from the west at 3.9ft with a 12-second period, the wind is a light offshore at 6 mph, and it’s clean. It’s not big, but it’s surfable and the conditions will be nice. Crowds are possible at this spot sometimes, but on a small clean day like that, it might be okay. For anything bigger than that, the onshore winds just kill it.

Other than that, it’s a long stretch of poor surf. The breaks here see this kind of

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