Porsmilin Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this outlook for Porsmilin is a tough one. We’re looking at a 16-day stretch where the surf just doesn’t show up in any kind of way that’s worth paddling out for. There’s a big gap of nothing worthwhile from the start. The models are calling for tiny, weak swells with poor conditions throughout, and the energy is just flat. The first real hint of any size doesn’t show up until near the end of the month, but even then, the wind is going to ruin it.

Let’s run through the dates. From now through the rest of July, it’s a write-off. We’re looking at swell heights of 0.7ft to 1ft, combined energy bouncing between 10 and 44 (weak) – that’s flat, gutless stuff. The wind is mostly cross-off or cross-on, but it doesn’t matter because there’s nothing to ride. The water temp is sitting at 65°, which is about 2° warmer than usual for this time of year, so it’s a touch on the balmy side, but that’s small comfort.

Moving into the last week of July, things start to look a bit more interesting for windsurfers or kite surfers, but not for us. On the 27th, we finally see a pulse of swell hit 4ft, coming from the W with a period of 8 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 192 (moderate), which is a step up. But the wind is a strong cross-onshore, making it choppy and messy. The 28th sees a similar story: 4ft swell from the WNW with a short 6-second period, energy at 241. The wind is still strong cross-onshore and lumpy. By the 29th, the swell is 3ft with a 10-second period, energy at 275, but the wind is a strong cross-shore, creating messy cross-chop. This is a classic setup where the beach and sandbar is going to be a mess – honestly, this looks more interesting for a kite session than a paddle.

The 30th and 31st drop back down to 2ft and 2ft, with the wind staying cross-onshore and fresh. The energy drops to 164 and then 77. The first of August is more of the same: 2ft, weak energy, and gentle cross-onshore chop.

There is no standout here. No day where the stars align. The only time the swell gets over 5ft is on the 27th and 28th, but with the wind blowing straight onshore or cross, it’s just a messy, blown-out mess. For a beginner, that 4ft is manageable, but the wind makes it ugly. For an expert, it’s not worth the hassle. The directions are consistently W to WNW, which is the optimum for Porsmilin, but the wind is just wrong.

So, what do you do? You wait. This area is often like this – a blank run of poor quality is normal for the season. The long-range forecast for the start of August shows no improvement. Best to keep the board in the car and the wax in the bag for now. Forecasts can change, but right now, this is a solid rest week.

Rusty.

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