Porsmilin Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the next couple of weeks for our stretch of coast. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, so let’s get into it.

The overall pattern for the next 16 days is pretty slow to start. We’re looking at a long stretch of small, weak, and mostly messy surf for the first week and a half. There’s a glimmer of something bigger further out, but it comes with a serious warning. The early days are all about small waves and waiting for the windows to align.

Wednesday the 5th kicks things off with a pulse of swell, but it’s complicated. Morning has a 6ft cross-shore (WNW) wave, but the period is a short 7 seconds. The energy is moderate (294), but it’s not clean. The afternoon drops a bit but the cross-shore wind picks up, making it a no-go. This is frustrating, there’s size but no shape.

Thursday the 6th the swell drops to around 4ft. The period is a short 6 seconds, and even though the morning wind is light cross-offshore, the overall quality is just ordinary. The energy is weak (118). Afternoon is smaller and the wind increases, so nothing doing.

From Friday the 7th through the weekend, the surf just fades. We’re looking at ankle to knee-high slop, with wave heights of 1ft to 3ft. There are long-period swells in the mix (9-11 seconds), but with that little energy (21-88), it’s not going to break with any punch. The winds are mostly light or offshore, so it’s pretty, but there’s just nothing to ride.

The start of the next week, Monday 10th and Tuesday 11th, we see a slight bump back up to around 3ft to 4ft. Still, the period is short (8-9 seconds) and the energy is weak to moderate (88-152). It’s surfable, but you’d be working hard for marginal waves. The winds are mostly light or cross-off, so there’s a clean surface, but the lack of power is the killer.

Wednesday 12th and Thursday 13th the swell tries to build. The morning of the 13th has a 4ft wave with a 9-second period and moderate energy (222). It’s still clean, but it’s not setting the world on fire. The afternoon of the 13th sees a jump in size to 5ft and a longer 11-second period, with strong energy (619). The wind is cross-offshore, but the comment says the conditions are poor, so I’d be cautious. The energy is there, but the quality isn't.

Friday the 14th is similar, with 4ft to 4ft waves and a 9-second period. It’s clean, but the forecast mentions marginal or questionable tide conditions. You could get a few, but you’d need to know the sandbar well.

Then, we hit a rough patch. Saturday 15th and Sunday 16th are blown out. Onshore winds from the SW and W pick up to 22-28 mph, and the swell drops back down. This is when the setup at Porsmilin starts to look more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer. The ocean will be a mess, with lumpy, cross-onshore conditions and rain showers. This is a good time to stay on the beach.

Now, the standout. This is the one to keep an eye on. Monday the 17th of August is a beast. The swell jumps to a solid 12ft from the WNW with a long 11-second period. The combined energy is enormous – that’s strong to very strong, reading 6146 in the morning and 2814 in the afternoon. The wind is forecast to be cross-offshore and clean. This is the biggest, most powerful swell of the window. But here’s the catch: it is predicted to be too big for this break. At over 8ft, this is experts-only territory, and even then, it’s likely to close out or be a washing machine. It’s a clean, massive wave, but it could be unruly. This is your one true standout, but you need to be very, very experienced and know the break intimately.

After that, things settle down again. Tuesday 18th drops back to 4ft to 5ft, with a short 8-9 second period and onshore cross winds. The rest of the week is more small, junky surf.

In a nutshell: the start and end of the period are poor. The only real window of opportunity is the brief push around the 13th and 14th, but it’s not amazing. The 17th is the big one, but it’s too powerful for most. There’s a long gap of 5 days between the 12th and the 17th where the surf is just marginal to poor. It’s a tough stretch, but that day on the 17th has real potential for the few who are up for it.

Rusty out.

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