Porsmilin Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer at Porsmilin over the next couple of weeks. Gotta be straight with you: this is a tough stretch. The data is pretty bleak for a long while. We’re looking at a solid gap of over two weeks with barely a whisper of decent surf, so don’t get your hopes up too early.

The whole period kicks off with a real flat spell. From Sunday the 12th right through to late July, the waves are tiny and the energy is weak. We’re talking ankle-snappers mostly under 3 ft, with combined swell energy readings in the low double digits – 45, 38, 19 – that’s barely a ripple. Winds are mixed, often cross-off or offshore, but with no size to work with, it’s just clean and small. There’s a brief uptick on Thursday the 16th with a 2 ft to 3 ft SW swell, but it’s short period (7 seconds) and choppy onshore wind ruins it. Not worth paddling out.

We then go into a long dry spell. The middle of the month is mostly a write-off. Through the 18th, 19th, 20th, it’s all below 2 ft. One notable moment on Sunday the 19th afternoon: a tiny 0.7 ft swell with a very long 13-second period and strong offshore NNE wind at 25 mph. That’s clean but impossible to ride. Hard to paddle into, and no power.

It isn’t until Thursday the 23rd of July that we see a real change, but it’s a messy one. Thursday afternoon a 10 ft WNW swell slams in with a combined energy reading of 1635, which is proper strong. The problem? It’s accompanied by a fresh onshore SW wind at 22 mph – that’s a washing machine. The swell has a short, jumbled 10-second period. This is a raw, powerful, blown-out mess. Only for the hardcore tow crew or maybe kites. Not a paddle surfer’s friend.

Friday the 24th morning cleans up a bit as the wind swings to a strong cross-offshore NW at 25 mph. The swell drops to a still-chunky 5 ft from WNW with an 8-second period. Combined energy is still solid at 317. It’s going to be clean but powerful and a bit short-period. This is the standout window. The conditions are clean, the swell size is right for intermediates who can handle a bit of punch, but the wind is strong, so it’ll be a battle. The break here is a sandbar, so with the period being short, it could be a bit walled and dumpy. It’s too big for beginners. If you’re experienced, this is the one to target.

Sunday the 26th brings another pulse, with 5 ft to 6 ft from the W, but the wind goes cross-onshore and it gets choppy again. Then finally, Monday the 27th morning offers the best chance of the whole run: a clean 5 ft WNW swell with a 9-second period, light cross-offshore NNW wind, and combined energy of 306. The score is the only one in the whole 16-day chart to get a nod for “expect good surf conditions”. It’s not giant, but it’s clean, fairly consistent, and the wind is light. That’s your best bet.

So, to wrap it up: a long, quiet first two weeks, then one day of wild, stormy stuff, and finally a clean, decent session on Monday the 27th. Water temp is sitting at 65°F which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. Not a classic outlook, but that Monday morning window is our real standout.

- Rusty

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