Le Poux Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here, and I've gotta be straight with you – this outlook for Le Poux is a tough one. We're looking at a long, quiet stretch before things finally start to look interesting. The water is running at 68° right now, which is a whopping 5° warmer than usual for this time of year – that's a major anomaly, so the water will feel noticeably warm.

The first recommendation for a surf doesn't come until Thursday, 10th September. That means we've got a solid gap from now until then with pretty much nothing on offer. The wind is mostly onshore, the swell is tiny and weak, and the energy readings are just sad. For example, Thursday morning the 27th has a combined wave energy of just 10 (very weak), and Friday the 28th barely nudges up to 22. It's a wasteland.

Even as we head into the first days of September, the pattern stays the same. The swell tries to build a bit around the 29th and 30th of August, hitting moderate energy levels around 256 and 359, but it's all blown out by strong onshore winds. Saturday the 29th has a near gale of 34 mph from the WSW on the afternoon, and the surf is described as "poor surf conditions" across the board. There's a bit of a pulse on the 31st of August with 6 ft swell from the West and energy of 440, but it's still onshore wind and messy. Honestly, this whole first week and a bit is a write-off for paddle surfing – with that much wind and significant swell, it might be more interesting for the kite surfers than us.

Then we get to Thursday, 10th September. Finally, a glimmer. The morning shows a clean, light NNE breeze at 6 mph giving us cross-offshore wind, and the water is cleaner. The swell is only 2 ft from the West with a period of 11 seconds, and energy is 147 (moderate). It's described as "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions" – not great, but it's something. The afternoon drops off again.

But the real standout, the one you've been waiting for, is Friday, 11th September. The morning session is the pick of the whole 16 days. We've got a proper offshore wind from the NE at 9 mph, making for clean, glassy conditions. The swell jumps to 6 ft from the West with a 9-second period, and the combined energy is a solid 567 (strong). The forecast says "expect very good surf conditions" – that's the good oil. The wind holds offshore through the morning, and the afternoon is still clean but with a cross-offshore breeze and a slight drop in swell to 6 ft. This is the one to pencil in.

Now, a word of caution – Le Poux is a beach and reef set-up that rarely breaks, and it's rated for beginners. With 6 ft swell, it's getting a bit punchy for total beginners, and the 9-second period is a short-period wind swell, so it'll be a bit crumbly and not the most powerful. But with offshore winds, it'll be the best we see. Also, crowds are listed as "rare" here, so you might have it to yourself.

So, the takeaway: a long, flat, windy stretch until Thursday 10th, then a small session on offer, but Friday 11th is the clear winner. It's a long-range call, so keep an eye on it, but it's looking promising.

Rusty.

Read more