Lajinha Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s be straight up: if you’re looking for a classic Lajinha session over the next 16 days, you’re gonna be left staring at a lot of choppy, wind-affected mess. The overall pattern is dominated by persistent cross or cross-onshore winds from the SE and ESE, which are just gonna wreck any chances of clean waves. The swell is small to moderate, but the wind kills it.

Looking at the first chance for a surf, from Sunday the 13th right through, it’s poor. The swell coming out of the east at around 4 ft is completely blown out by a moderate breeze. The energy is weak to moderate (172 on Sunday morning), and that cross-on wind will have the surface chopped up. Not worth paddling out. Monday the 14th is more of the same – 4 ft to 4 ft east swell, still cross-shore winds, and a messy cross-chop. The energy picks up a bit to 173–191, but it’s still a write-off.

Tuesday the 15th and Wednesday the 16th don’t get any better. The swell drops off to 3 ft with a short period of only 6 seconds and the wind stays cross-onshore. The water temperature is a warm 81°, about 2° warmer than average for this time of year, but that won’t help the waves.

Thursday the 17th through Friday the 18th sees the swell bump up a little, with Friday the 18th pushing 5 ft from the east and energy in the 200 range. But the wind strengthens to a fresh breeze (19 mph) from the SE, making it lumpy and ugly. This is kite-surfing weather, not paddle-surfing weather. The energy is moderate but nothing you’d get excited about.

A long gap of poor conditions stretches all the way through the second week. By Thursday the 24th, the swell drops to 2 ft from the ESE with a longer 10-11 second period, but the wind is still onshore or cross-on from the E. There’s a moment on the 24th morning with onshore wind and swell from the east at just 2 ft – energy is moderate at 193 but the size is tiny and the wind is junk. The period is longer, hinting at some groundswell, but with the wind direction and tiny size, it’s still a no-go for a decent wave.

Saturday the 26th brings a little lift back to 4 ft east swell, but with a gentle breeze (9 mph) cross-on, it’s only “fairly choppy” – still not clean. The energy is weak (133). That’s the best of a bad bunch, but it’s not good. Sunday the 27th follows the same script: 4 ft east swell, cross-on ESE winds again.

The standout? Honestly, there isn’t one. Not a single day offers clean, surfable conditions. The closest you get is maybe Saturday the 26th morning with slightly lighter wind and a bit of east swell, but it’s still cross-on and lumpy. If you’re an expert and desperate, you might paddle out for a few grovelly closeouts, but I wouldn’t bother. The whole 16-day window is a blank run for Lajinha – the persistent cross-shore wind pattern just won’t let up. You’d be better off waiting for a change in the forecast.

Rusty.

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