Lajinha Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. I’ve been staring at the charts for our stretch of coast, and I gotta be straight with you: it’s a pretty bleak run we’ve got coming up. The whole 16-day window is a write-off for any kind of decent paddle. There’s just nothing that’s going to get the heart rate up, and it’s a real shame, because the lineup at Lajinha is a gem when it turns on.

We’re looking at a solid wall of onshore and cross-onshore breeze out of the southeast, blowing at 15 to 19 mph for the vast majority of the period. That’s the kind of wind that chops up any potential and makes it a real battle just to get out the back, let alone catch a clean one. The swell is hanging around in that waist-to-chest high range, mostly 3ft to 5ft, and it’s coming from the east-southeast with a short, weak period of 6 to 8 seconds. The combined swell energy is weak to moderate, with values mostly in the 100 to 250 range—nothing with any punch behind it. The water temp is a warm 81°, which is about 2° above the norm for this time of year, so it’s a touch toastier than usual but not a crazy anomaly.

So, starting from Wednesday the 9th, it’s a no-go. The morning brings rain showers and a stiff 15 mph cross-onshore wind, making it choppy and messy. The energy is weak at 153. Through the following days, we see the swell nudge up slightly, hitting 5ft on Thursday afternoon with the wind picking up to 19 mph, making it lumpy. The energy gets up to 264 by Friday afternoon, but it’s all for nothing because the wind is ruining any chance of a clean face. It’s all poor surf conditions. We’ll go through the first week with no options, and into the second week, the pattern is locked in. The wind stays stubbornly out of the southeast, the swell stays in that weak 3ft to 5ft zone, and the periods even drop back to a sluggish 6 seconds. This is weak and short-period windswell at best. The energy does climb back to 181 on Tuesday the 22nd, but it’s still all cross-onshore and messy. The last few days of the month, the wind finally goes lighter at 12 mph, and we even see it go straight onshore from the east on Thursday the 24th, but the swell has fizzled out to 3ft with no energy behind it (values around 113 to 136). It’s flat-ish and wind-blown.

There are no good surf options in this whole 16-day window. None. The only consistent thing about Lajinha is how consistently bad the conditions are going to be. It’s a full-blown blank run, which is more normal for this area when the trade winds lock in like this. Usually, it doesn’t stay this poor for this long, so I’d keep an eye on the long-range forecasts, but for now, leave the board in the car. Honestly, with this much side-shore wind and messy 3ft to 5ft of chop, this setup is looking far more interesting for the kite crew than for us paddle surfers. Save the energy, be patient, and we’ll wait for the wind to ease.

Rusty.

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