Lajinha Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Lajinha has got cooking for us over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, I’m a bit gutted to say this, but the outlook is a tough one. The entire 16-day window is basically one long flat spell of poor surf conditions. There isn’t a single standout session, or even a decent one to point you towards. The swell is weak, the wind is a constant problem, and every single entry in the forecast has that dreaded "poor surf conditions" tag. You’ll be looking at a solid two weeks of groveling or just keeping the board in the car.

The break itself is a consistent reef setup at Lajinha, which normally would be a good thing, but the wind is the killer here. For almost the whole period, we’re stuck with a cross-onshore breeze from the ESE or SE, blowing at 12 to 19 mph. That’s putting a chop and a bump on everything. The swell direction is coming from the east, which is the optimum direction for the break, but the waves are tiny and short-period. Swell heights barely scrape 4 ft, and the period is a dismal 6 to 8 seconds. That’s short-period windswell, not groundswell, so the wave energy is weak – you’re looking at combined energy values mostly in the low hundreds, like 121 (moderate wave energy) on the 14th, and a peak of 305 (moderate wave energy) on the 25th.

The water temp is sitting at a warm 81°F with a 2°F anomaly, so it’s a touch warmer than average for this time of year, but you won’t be spending much time in the water because the waves just aren't there.

There is a brief moment on the 23rd where the wind shifts to a gentle onshore breeze from the ENE, but the swell is still only 3 to 4 ft with a 7-second period – it’s not enough to get excited about. The morning of the 24th also sees a bump in energy to 180, but the cross-onshore chop ruins it.

Later in the window, on the 24th afternoon and the 25th, the period finally stretches out to 11-12 seconds, which hints at a bit more grunt, but the wind is still fresh and cross-onshore at 16-19 mph, making it rough and lumpy. The wave state is described as "moderate cross-shore with a cross-chop" and "fresh cross-onshore and lumpy." It’s not surfable.

Given the persistent cross-onshore wind and the small, choppy conditions, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The reef is exposed and the wind is just ruining any chance of a clean wave.

I’d keep the board stored away for this one. The forecasts can always shift, but right now, it’s a solid two-week no-go.

Rusty.

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