La Chocolatera Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Right off the bat, I gotta be honest with you – the outlook for the next couple of weeks is pretty grim. This is one of those stretches where the ocean just doesn’t want to cooperate. The only spot worth talking about is La Chocolatera, but even that’s a tough sell. It’s a point break that’s inconsistent, so it needs the right combo to fire, and we just don’t see it in this window.

We kick off on Monday the 27th of July. The swell is there at 5 ft from the SW, with a proper long period of 18 seconds (combined energy of 1228). That’s a lot of grunt for a spot that’s exposed to the SW, which is the optimum direction. But the problem is the wind. A cross-on shore breeze from the WSW at 9 mph is messing it up, leaving it fairly choppy. The water is a super warm 78°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – a full 9 degrees above average.

From Tuesday the 28th through to the 11th of August, the story doesn’t change much. The swell drops and sticks around 1 ft to 5 ft, and the period shortens into the 11 to 16 second range. The issue is that nearly every day the wind is onshore, or cross-onshore, from the SW or WSW. That’s a dealbreaker for getting clean faces. There’s a couple of mornings where the wind lightens up, like on the 6th of August, with a light breeze from the SSW at 6 mph, and the swell is 3 ft with a 13-second period and a combined energy of 451. But it’s still onshore, and the forecast calls it marginal. It’s just not enough to get excited about.

The long-range stuff around the 10th and 11th of August has some very long period swell (19 to 22 seconds) coming from the SW, with combined energy in the 500 to 700 range. That’s a lot of water moving, but it’s tiny – only 2 ft to 2 ft. The period is so long that for a point like La Chocolatera, it might actually wrap in nicely, but the wind is still onshore. It’s a frustrating tease.

Bottom line: there’s no standout here. The wind is just wrong for the swell we have. If you’re desperate, the least bad window might be the morning of Thursday the 6th of August, with a light breeze and a tiny bit of energy, but I wouldn’t rush. This is a period where the forecast can change, so keep an eye on it, but right now, it’s a paddling workout for the armchair crew.

Rusty.

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