La Chocolatera Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking for the next couple of weeks.

To be honest, the 16-day window starts quiet. The first few days, Friday the 11th through to the morning of Wednesday the 23rd, are a real mixed bag, with mostly poor conditions on the cards. There’s a bit of energy around, but the winds aren’t playing ball and the vibe is off. The standout window, what I’d actually paddle out for, looks like it’s gonna be the morning of Wednesday the 23rd. That’s a full 12 days away, so lock it in with a grain of salt, but it’s the only real glimmer we’ve got.

Let’s talk about La Chocolatera. This is a point break that’s inconsistent, so don’t expect it to be pumping every day. It’s exposed to the swell, and it’s asking for a solid SW direction, which lines up with what we’ve got. For the first week plus, the onshore wind just kills it. The morning of Friday the 11th has a bit of marginal surf (combined swell energy of 616), with a 4 ft SW groundswell running at a nice long 14 seconds, but it’s blowing straight on at 9 mph. That’s messy. The water is sitting at 80°, which is far warmer than normal for this time of year—a solid 6° anomaly, that’s very unusual and will feel weirdly tropical.

The whole thing stays pretty grim through the 22nd. Then, on the morning of Wednesday the 23rd, it all changes for a minute. We’ve got a tiny 2 ft swell from the WSW, paired with a decent 14-second period. The energy is weak, only 209, but look at the wind. It’s glassy. Dead calm, 3 mph from the south. That’s the key. Glassy conditions at an inconsistent point break are a rare treat. The waves might be small, but they’ll be clean, and the long period will keep them lined up. Because it’s a point break, the long period is actually a bonus. That’s the only time I’d say to go. After that, the onshore winds come back and it’s back to looking at a flat lake.

So, if you’re patient, mark the 23rd. Otherwise, the forecast is a long, slow blank run. It’s not unusual for this area to have that kind of pattern. Keep an eye on the charts, things can shift.

Rusty.

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