La Chocolatera Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer at La Chocolatera. Straight up, I gotta be honest with you – this forecast is a bit of a grind. The outlook starts with a bit of swell on Friday, August 7th, but the conditions are a mess. We’re looking at a 3ft groundswell from the SW with a very long period of 16 seconds, and the energy is moderate (659). The water is 78°, which is far warmer than normal for this time of year, so you won’t need a thick suit. But the problem is the wind – it’s onshore from the SSW at 9 mph, and the surf is listed as marginal at best. The combined energy of all swells directed here is moderate (659). Honestly, it’s not looking like a session worth paddling out for.

Saturday morning, August 8th, the swell drops a bit to 4ft from the SW, but the wind picks up to 16 mph onshore. It’s chopped out. This pattern just keeps going for days. The wind is mostly onshore from the SSW or SW, with moderate breeze speeds, and the swell hangs around the 2ft to 3ft mark but with a lot of energy readings in the 300-600 range. The waves are there, but the quality is just poor. There’s a long stretch here from the 7th right through to the 13th of August with no real recommendation – just poor surf conditions and onshore wind.

Now, there’s a tiny flicker of hope on the 14th of August. Friday morning sees a 4ft long-period swell from the SW (17 seconds), with a much higher moderate energy (889). The wind is a gentle onshore breeze from the SW at 9 mph. The report says “marginal surf forecast,” but the long period means the waves will have some shape and power. This is a point break, so it’s better set up for a longer-period groundswell than a beach break would be. The wind is still onshore, though, so it won’t be glassy. It’s a possible dawn patrol if you’re desperate, but it’s not a standout.

The best bet in this whole 16-day window, and I mean the only real standout, is Saturday morning, August 15th. The swell is 4ft from the WSW, with a period of 15 seconds and a combined energy of 764 (moderate). But the key here is the wind: it’s a slight air from the SW at only 3 mph. That’s basically glassy. On a point break like La Chocolatera, a 4ft, long-period groundswell with light wind will produce clean, peeling waves. The crowd factor is "sometimes," so you might have a few others out, but it’s not a circus. The catch is the report says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions,” so you’ll need to time the tide right. But this is the one morning where everything lines up as close to good as it gets. After that, the wind picks up fresh on Saturday afternoon, and we’re back to the same old onshore junk.

The second week, from the 17th of August onward, is more of the same: 4ft to 5ft SW swell, onshore wind, and poor to marginal conditions. There’s no real change. The combined energy stays in the moderate 500-760 range, but the wind never lets up. It’s a long, flat spell of poor quality.

So, to wrap it up: there’s a lot of windy, messy days in this forecast. The only window that’s worth a look is the Saturday morning of August 15th. If you can get out before the wind picks up, you might find a few clean lines. Otherwise, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

Read more