La Chocolatera Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let's talk about what's coming up at La Chocolatera.

First off, the water's cooking at 78°, which is a whopping 8° warmer than usual for this time of year – that's seriously unusual, like bathwater warm. The vibe here is a point break that's inconsistent, and it's exposed to the SW. The optimum swell direction is from the SW, so when it does show, it's got the right angle.

Right now, we're in a bit of a flat spell. The first week out to about the 24th of July is grim. The swell is small, mostly around 2ft to 3ft, and the wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore. The wave energy is moderate, staying between 258 and 537, but the combo of small size and poor wind makes it a write-off. I wouldn't bother paddling out until at least the 24th, and even then it's pretty marginal.

The first real flicker of hope comes on the morning of Friday the 24th of July. The swell is still only 3ft, coming from the SW, but the period jumps to a very long 21 seconds. The wind is light and onshore, not ideal, but the energy climbs to 779. It's a long-period groundswell, so it'll have that push and shape, but on a point break like this, those long lines might actually lines up nicely. The morning of Saturday the 25th of July is similar, with a 3ft SW swell, still that long 19-second period, and the wind turns very light. The cross-onshore is there, but just a slight air, so it could be glassy early. The energy is 735. This is the best of a tricky bunch early on, but it's far from a stand-out.

The real standout is the Monday the 28th of July. The swell builds to 5ft from the SW, with a solid 16-second period. The combined energy jumps to 2070 on the afternoon, which is strong. The wind is a light to moderate onshore, but it's manageable. This is a proper swell, but at 5ft, it's getting into the intermediate zone and could be a bit much for beginners. The good news is that the forecast is for the swell to hold through the 29th, with 5ft and 15-second period, though the wind gets cross-onshore on the afternoon. The energy stays well over 1000, so the ocean will have plenty of grunt. This is the best window for someone who knows what they're doing.

After that, it gradually fades through the end of July and into August. The swell drops back under 3ft, and the winds are generally onshore or cross-onshore. The energy drops back to moderate levels. The morning of Sunday the 2nd of August has a 3ft WSW swell with a 13-second period and light wind, but the energy is still moderate at 496. It's not going to be firing.

Overall, for the next 16 days, the surf is very inconsistent. We've got a long stretch of nothing until the 24th, then a few marginal days, and then a proper window around the 28th and 29th of July. The 28th afternoon is the best bet, with the strongest swell and energy, but it's a long-range call, so don't bank on it. For now, the water is warm, but the waves are playing hard to get.

- Rusty

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