La Chocolatera Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve got to be straight with you—this 16-day window for La Chocolatera is a tough one. It’s an exposed point break that likes a solid SW groundswell, but the charts are showing a lot of onshore wind and messy conditions. The water is sitting at 78°, which is much warmer than usual for this time of year, so you’ll be warm, but the waves just aren’t playing ball for a while.

The first real chance to get a wave in comes on Monday, 27th July, but even then, it’s a marginal call. We’ve got a 5ft swell from the SW with a very long 18-second period—that’s proper groundswell energy, and the combined energy is solid at 1238 (moderate). The wind is a gentle onshore breeze from the WSW in the morning, which is okay, but by the afternoon it turns cross-onshore from the W, making it a bit choppy. This spot is a point break, so long-period SW swells can shape up nicely here, but the onshore wind is going to mess with the surface. It’s inconsistent, too, so don’t expect non-stop action. Crowds are sometimes an issue, so you might see a few others out.

Tuesday, 28th July, is similar—5ft to 5ft from the SW, 16-second period, with combined energy up to 1354 (moderate). The wind is onshore from the SW and WSW, so it’s not clean. This is getting into the size where it’s a bit much for beginners, but the wind is the real problem. Wednesday, 29th July, drops to 5ft and 4ft, with a 14-second period, and the wind is lighter (6-9 mph from the SW), but still onshore. The combined energy is 835 to 672 (moderate). Still marginal.

Then from Thursday, 30th July, right through to the end of the outlook on Monday, 10th August, it’s a long stretch of poor surf conditions. The swell drops below 3ft for most of that, with short periods around 11-12 seconds, and combined energy under 500 (weak). The wind stays onshore, mostly from the SW or WSW, with some cross-onshore days. It’s just not worth paddling out for a surf—the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, given the consistent onshore wind and weak, short-period waves. There’s a tiny blip on Thursday, 6th August, with a 3ft, 14-second SW swell and a light breeze, but it’s still marginal and the combined energy is only 359 (weak). Not a stand-out.

The best on offer is the Monday morning, 27th July, with that 5ft, 18-second groundswell from the SW. If you’re desperate, that’s the window to try, but don’t expect perfection. After that, it’s a long, flat spell until the end.

Rusty.

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