La Chocolatera Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get this straight. I’m looking at the forecast for La Chocolatera, and it’s a bit of a heartbreaker. The surf is gonna be small and mostly messy for the next week and a half. That south swell that the point loves is just not lining up with clean conditions.

We are starting off small. From Saturday the 12th through Monday the 14th, we’ve got waves anywhere from 2ft to 4ft, but it’s pretty rough. The wind is blowing on it, and the energy is weak to moderate, running in the 355 to 395 bracket. The period is all over the place too, from a short 7 seconds up to a long 18 seconds. Not something you’d paddle out for, honestly. It’s gonna look all walled-up and wonky.

The water’s a big story here. We’re looking at 80° and that’s a solid 12° warmer than usual – that’s very unusual for this time of year. It feels like a bathtub, which is cool for a swim, but notice how warm water and confused, small surf often go hand in hand.

Come Monday morning, the 14th, there’s a glimmer – still only 2ft, but the period jumps up to 18s. That makes it a true groundswell. The energy is moderate at 316, but it’s still messy and the tide is going to work against us. It’s a “look but don’t jump in” kind of session.

Then things go flat and poor. From Tuesday the 15th through Friday the 18th, we’re stuck with 2ft to 3ft waves, mostly around that 13-16 second mark. The energy is weak to moderate – it fluctuates from a low of 287 up to a more zesty 641 on Tuesday afternoon. But the wind is just not letting up. It’s onshore and choppy. You’d be fighting for a dribble.

The weekend of the 19th and 20th doesn’t offer much to get excited about. We’re still looking at 2ft to 2ft of swell, with long periods of 18-20s. That gives it some push, but it’s just not enough, and the wind is still on it. It’ll be pretty weak out there.

We have this long, drawn-out gap of nothing good from the 12th all the way to at least the 26th. That’s a solid two-week run of poor conditions. The energy stays in the low-to-mid hundreds, and there are a few days like the 24th and 25th that dip under 170 – that’s weak. You’d be better off finding a lake.

There is a little pulse of life on the 27th, which is a Sunday. The swell pushes up to 3ft and the period gets back to 16 seconds. The energy jumps to 460, which is moderate and the most promising we’ve seen in a while. But, the wind is still going to be cross-onshore and it’s likely to be choppy. It’s more of a promise of things to come than an actual surfable day.

Bottom line here, it’s a dry spell. The forecast is poor across the board. La Chocolatera is usually a good point break when the SW swell aligns, but this outlook has none of that. There are no standouts. If you’re desperate you can look at it, but the setup looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer. Keep the board in the car, and let’s hope conditions change.

Rusty.

Read more