La Chocolatera Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s talk about what’s coming up.

First off, the water is way warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting at 79° at La Chocolatera. That’s a solid 10° above average, so it’s a real treat if you’re heading in without a thick suit.

Right now, there’s a tiny bit of swell on the go, but honestly, it’s not worth paddling out for. The first few days are pretty grim. Thursday the 23rd has small 1ft to 2ft south-west swell, but the energy is weak (281) and the wind is cross-onshore, making it choppy. Friday the 24th looks a little better with 3ft swell, but it’s still marginal. Saturday the 25th stays small and poor.

The real lift starts Sunday the 26th morning. We get a 4ft south-west swell, period dropping to 17 seconds, and the wind is light and offshore from the south-southwest – that’s glassy, clean conditions. The energy is building (811) and the setup is a point break, so that long period should wrap in nicely. That’s your first real window.

Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th are the standouts. Monday morning bumps up to 5ft from the south-west, with a 18-second period, and the wind is offshore from the south-southwest. The combined energy hits 1215 – that’s moderate to strong energy. It’s a point break, so the long period will work well. Tuesday morning nudges to 5ft, 16-second period, with light offshore breeze from the southwest. Energy is still strong at 1168. This is the best on offer for the whole forecast. The downsides? This spot is inconsistent and can have crowds sometimes, so don’t expect empty waves, but when it’s on, it’s on.

From Wednesday the 29th onward, things taper off. The swell drops back to 5ft, then 4ft, period shortening, and the wind swings cross-onshore by the afternoon. The energy drops into the 600-800 range. By Thursday the 30th, we’re down to 4ft and the swell is getting shorter period, making it less punchy. From Friday the 31st right through to the first week of August, it’s all poor surf conditions – small, weak, and often onshore. The combined energy sinks to under 400, and the swell is barely 3ft. There’s a little bump on Thursday the 6th of August with 4ft and moderate energy (584), but the wind is stronger and the forecast is poor, so it’s not worth banking on.

So, bottom line: the first real surf is Sunday the 26th, Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th are the best days, with clean offshore winds and solid groundswell. After that, it’s a long dry spell until the second week, and even then it’s not looking great. If you’re keen, aim for that Monday-Tuesday window.

Rusty.

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