La Chocolatera Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's talk about what's going on with La Chocolatera.

Honestly, it’s a rough start. We’re looking at a solid two-week stretch where the surf just isn’t doing us any favours. The first week is a write-off, with nothing but onshore wind and poor conditions cluttering up the forecast. The wind is mostly coming from the southwest, right onshore, and that’s just killing any chance of a decent wave. You'll see some swell around 3 ft to 4 ft, but it doesn't matter when the wind is trashing it. The combined energy is weak to moderate (around 254 to 485) for most of that first week, but it’s just messy.

There’s a long gap here. From the 15th of July all the way through to the morning of the 24th, there’s genuinely nothing worth paddling out for. You’d be better off on the beach with a cold drink than trying to fight that onshore chop.

Now, the 24th of July is where things get a little interesting, but don't get too excited. The morning sees a shift: a light breeze from the SW and a long-period groundswell of 21 seconds rolling in. The swell is only about 3 ft, but the energy jumps right up to strong at 916. That long period means the waves will have real shape and push, but with a period that long at a point break like La Chocolatera, it might be a bit too straight. The water here is also much warmer than normal, with a massive anomaly of 4°C, which is very unusual for this time of year. The morning conditions are listed as "marginal," but that’s the best we see in the whole outlook. If you’re desperate, that’s your window.

The following days, the 25th and 26th, the energy stays high (923 on the morning of the 25th) with more of that long-period swell from the SW around 3 ft, but the wind swings around a bit and we’re back to poor to marginal conditions. It’s a tease. The standouts are really just those two mornings: the 24th and 25th of July, if you can get on it when the wind is light. Even then, it’s not classic, but it’s the only game in town. For the rest of the run into the 30th, we’re looking at more of the same onshore crud.

Bottom line: this is a tough stretch. Crowds are sometimes an issue here, but honestly, I don’t think you’ll have to fight for waves because the quality just isn’t there. The only thing that saves this forecast is the very long period energy at the end of the month, but even that comes with caveats. Keep an eye on the wind, because if it ever goes offshore, this place could fire. Right now? Not so much.

- Rusty

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