La Chocolatera Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer for the next couple of weeks.

First off, we’re looking at a bit of a frustrating period. The water is running much warmer than normal for this time of year at 78°. That's a big anomaly – over seven degrees warmer than average, which is very unusual.

The wave energy coming in is moderate overall, with the combined energy of all swells directed here hitting between 200 and 1400 throughout the period (a three or four digit number). The issue is, despite having some solid groundswell in the water, the conditions are just not cooperating.

The first decent look comes in on Friday morning, July 3rd, but it’s poor. The swell is a clean 4 ft from the SW with a solid 15-second period, but the wind is howling onshore from the SW at 12 mph. That’s a no-go.

Saturday the 4th sees cleaner skies and a light offshore wind in the morning from the WSW at 6 mph, but the swell drops to 3 ft. The energy is moderate (463), but the report calls it marginal. The wind goes a bit onshore in the afternoon, so the morning is your only real chance for a grovel on a longboard.

Now, Sunday the 5th is interesting. The morning has a tiny 2 ft swell, but look at that period – 21 seconds! That’s very long-period groundswell. The combined energy spikes to 833 (moderate) because of that long period. With a slight air from the SW at only 3 mph, it'll be glassy. This is a major positive. However, that long period at a point break can mean the swell wraps in nicely. It's inconsistent though, so you’ll be waiting for sets. Still, this is the best morning on offer for clean, lined-up waves if you’re patient.

Monday the 6th ramps up. The morning has 4 ft at 19 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 1012 – strong. With a light offshore WSW breeze at 6 mph, it’s going to be clean. The swell direction is straight from the optimum SW, and it’s not too big for intermediates. This Monday morning could be the true standout of the two weeks if you can get out there. The afternoon sees the swell hit 5 ft, but the wind turns cross-onshore, making it choppy. So, Monday morning is the one to target.

Tuesday the 7th morning holds 5 ft from the SW at 16 seconds with a light offshore SSW wind. 1148 combined energy is strong. It’s on the bigger side for intermediates but still manageable for experienced surfers. Very clean.

Things get smaller and sketchier after Tuesday. The rest of the first week and into the second week sees swell dropping back under 4 ft, with periods shortening. The wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, with moderate breezes. There are a few marginal slots – like Monday the 13th has a tiny 3 ft with a cross-onshore breeze, or Wednesday the 15th morning with 3 ft and light cross-onshore wind, but nothing you’d race for.

Honestly, for this stretch, the standout is Monday morning, July 6th at La Chocolatera. You’ve got 4 ft of clean SW groundswell, 19-second period, strong energy (1012), and light offshore wind. For the patient surfer, Sunday morning, July 5th is also a very special call – glassy, very long 21-second period swell, though small. If you haven't got a board under your arm by then, you're missing the window.

After Monday the 6th, the quality drops off a cliff. It’s a long, poor run with onshore winds and fading swell. Not much to write home about in that second week.

Rusty out.

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