La Chocolatera Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get into it.

Look, we've got a bit of a frustrating picture for the next couple of weeks here. The core issue is that we have a consistent, long-period groundswell from the southwest hitting the coast, but the wind is almost never on our side. This isn't one of those classic clean setups; it's a run of onshore and cross-onshore winds that are just messing with the potential. Good news is, it's not going to stay this way forever, and there are a couple of moments that might just be worth a paddle out if you're patient.

The first break to look at is La Chocolatera. It’s a point break rated for intermediates, but it’s inconsistent, so don't expect a wave every set. The water is a very unusual 78°F at the start, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, so you can go with a spring suit if you’ve got one.

The first few days are a write-off. Wednesday the 8th through to Sunday the 13th is just pain. We've got a solid 3ft to 4ft of SW swell with a very long period (15-16 seconds), and the combined swell energy is moderate, sitting around 646 (weak). But the wind is blowing straight onshore from the SW at 12 mph, turning what could be a good wave into a lumpy, poor mess. The scores for those days are basically zero.

We start seeing a glimmer of hope on Friday the 10th morning, with a "marginal" call, and a light breeze from the SW. The swell is still there at 4ft and 16 seconds, but the tide or something is making it tricky. Saturday the 11th is also just marginal. Nothing to get excited about.

The best of a bad bunch shows up on Saturday morning, July 18th. We get a light, almost glassy wind from the SW at just 3 mph. The swell is a smaller 3ft from the SW, but that light wind could mean a brief window of clean, lined-up waves on the point. The period drops to 12 seconds, so it’s not the super long stuff that can be tricky. If you’re desperate for a surf, that’s the morning to target. Keep in mind, as an inconsistent spot, you might be waiting a while, but when it comes, it could be fun.

From the 19th onward, it’s back to the same story: onshore winds ruining a solid swell base. The week starting the 21st has some cross-onshore winds which is at least a change, but still not great. There’s a brief "marginal" call on Monday afternoon the 20th with light cross-onshore wind and a small 3ft from the SW.

Honestly, this 16-day window is tough. The swell energy is there but the wind isn't. It's not a complete blank, but you have to be willing to take a low-percentage gamble on those marginal mornings. Barring that, the wind is too strong and too onshore for a proper paddle session.

Stay patient, keep an eye on the wind forecasts, and if that Saturday morning glass-off materialises, you know where to be.
Rusty.

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