La Chocolatera Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, I’ve been staring at the charts for a while and I gotta be straight with you – this is a tough one. The whole 16-day window is a bit of a struggle. We’ve got a solid, long-period groundswell from the southwest, but it’s fighting a losing battle with the wind. Most of the time, it’s onshore, which is just ruining what could be some decent waves. The water is a whopping 77°, which is nearly 7° warmer than usual for this time of year – feels like a bath out there.

Let’s start with the first real chance, which is Thursday afternoon, July 9th. The swell is 3 ft from the SW with a very long 15-second period, and the combined energy is moderate at 469. But the wind is straight onshore from the SW at 12 mph, and the report says "poor surf conditions." Not a good start.

We limp through the next few days. Friday, July 10th, has a similar story: 4 ft to 4 ft swell, but onshore wind and a "marginal" or "poor" rating. The energy builds to 729 on Friday afternoon, but it’s not surfable. Saturday and Sunday, July 11th and 12th, are the same – onshore breezes and messy conditions. The swell drops to 3 ft by Sunday.

The whole first week is a write-off. The wind is just relentless from the SW or WSW, and the wave quality is terrible. It’s a classic case of "surf's up, but it’s blown out."

The second week doesn’t offer much hope either. The best we see is a bit of a pulse on Monday, July 20th, with a 4 ft swell from the SW and a 14-second period. The combined energy hits 820, which is a decent bump. But once again, the wind is onshore, and the conditions are marked as "poor." It’s just frustrating.

The standout for the whole period, if you can call it that, is the morning of July 19th. The swell is 4 ft with a long 15-second period, and the wind is a light breeze from the SW – just about onshore, but light enough to maybe, just maybe, be clean for a short window. The energy is moderate at 525. It’s a "marginal" call, but it’s the closest we get to a decent session the whole forecast.

Honestly, La Chocolatera is a point break that loves a SW swell, but it needs the wind to cooperate. This forecast is a perfect example of swell without the right wind. It’s inconsistent at the best of times, and with this much onshore wind, it’s just not worth paddling out. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing for most of this period.

Take it from me, this is a “wait and see” kind of forecast. The swell is there, the energy is there, but the wind is a killer. Let’s hope the models change, because right now, the surf is poor.

Rusty.

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