La Chocolatera Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I’ll level with ya – the outlook for La Chocolatera over the next 16 days looks bleak. There’s nothing worth paddling out for at the start, and it doesn’t turn around.

It kicks off on Thursday, September 10th. The swell is 4 feet from the SW, with a very long 16-second period, so there’s some energy with combined energy hitting 800 (moderate), but the wind is a cross-on 12 mph from the west, turning things choppy and messy. Water temp is a wild 80°F, which is *far* warmer than normal for this time of year – a crazy 11°F anomaly. That’s very unusual.

The whole run is plagued by consistently poor surf conditions. Friday the 11th morning shows a 4-foot SW swell, 14-second period, with onshore wind from the SSW at 9 mph. Still poor. The weekend? Saturday drops to 3 feet on the 12th, then Sunday morning the 13th bottoms out at 1 feet – barely a bump.

There’s a brief uptick around Tuesday the 15th and Wednesday the 16th, with 3-foot swells and moderate energy in the 459 to 579 range, but the onshore wind from the SSW or SW never lets up. It’s always onshore, always at least a light breeze, so the lineup stays blown out.

Later in the second week, from September 19th onward, the swell size stays small – 2 feet to 2 feet – but the period gets long again, up to 20 seconds on the 19th. That means groundswell, but without size and with onshore winds, there’s just no shape. Combined energy actually ticks up to 618 on September 25th, but again, onshore wind spoils it.

La Chocolatera is a point break, exposed to SW swell, and it’s *inconsistent* – it rarely breaks. The optimum direction is SW, which we get, but without good wind, it’s useless. Crowds are sometimes a problem here, but honestly, there won’t be many out in these conditions.

The only possible window that looks slightly less terrible is Friday, September 25th afternoon – 3 feet from the SW, 20-second period, combined energy 618, but the wind is still onshore from the SW at 12 mph. It’s not going to be clean.

If you were hoping for a standout, there isn’t one. Everything gets a zero score in the forecast. The setup here is better for a kite session if you’re into that, because the wind is consistent and the swell is small.

Rusty.

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