La Chocolatera Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on the menu for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, it’s a tough stretch. We’ve got a real slow start, and then a lot of onshore wind and mushy conditions. The water is far warmer than normal right now, sitting at 79°F, which is a huge anomaly - over 9 degrees warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s wild.

The first noteworthy surf shows up early on Friday morning, July 24th at La Chocolatera. It’s a point break, exposed to the SW, and it’s getting some long-period groundswell at 21 seconds out of the SW. The swell is only 3ft, but that long period gives it a lot of push. The combined energy is moderate at 903. The wind is light from the SW, but it’s onshore, which is a bit of a bummer. The report flags it as marginal, and the scores are low. This is a spot that’s inconsistent anyway, and with the wind, it’s not going to be a classic session. Crowds are possible here.

That energy builds through the weekend. Saturday morning, July 25th, we see a 3ft SW swell with a 19-second period, but the wind is light and cross-onshore, so it’s a little choppy. The energy is still moderate at 736. By Sunday morning, July 26th, the swell is 4ft at 17 seconds, but the wind stays onshore. The numbers are just not coming together for a clean wave.

The best chance for size comes late July into early August. Monday morning, July 27th, the swell hits 5ft from the SW, period 18 seconds, and the combined energy jumps into the strong range at 1192. The wind is still onshore though. By Tuesday, July 28th, we’re looking at 5ft from the SW with a 16-second period, energy at 1294 - that’s the biggest swell of the window. But the wind is onshore, and the forecast says it’s “marginal” at best. With that size, it’s getting too big for beginners. The wind is the killer here.

After that, the swell drops back down. From Wednesday, July 29th onward, it’s a slow slide into smaller, weaker surf. The period drops into the 12-14 second range, and the combined energy falls from moderate down to weak, with values like 198 and 200 by August 4th. The wind stays mostly onshore for the whole run. There’s a brief uptick on August 8th, where the swell bumps back up to 4ft with a 15 second period and energy at 701, but again, the wind is onshore from the SSW at 12 mph.

Look, there’s no standout session here. The wind is just wrong for too many days. If you’re a patient local, the morning of July 27th or 28th might offer the most power, but don’t expect perfection. The long period (over 15 seconds) on those swells is good for a point like La Chocolatera, but the onshore wind will keep it bumpy. For the rest of the time, it’s mostly small, choppy, and not worth paddling out for. This is a stretch where you might want to check the forecast again next week.

- Rusty

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