La Chocolatera Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. I’ve been staring at the charts for “La Chocolatera” and I gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough outlook for the next couple of weeks. This is a classic point break setup, exposed to a solid SW swell, and normally that’s got me excited. But the numbers just aren’t lining up for a good paddle session.

We kick off on Friday, August 14th, with some swell on the way. The morning shows a bit of life with a 4 ft SW swell, but it’s a real long-period groundswell at 17 seconds, giving us a combined energy of 984 (moderate). The issue? The wind is straight onshore from the SW, blowing at 9 mph, and the wave comment flags it as marginal. It’s there, but it’s not going to be pretty. The afternoon bumps up to 5 ft from the WSW, but the period drops to 16 seconds and the wind stays onshore. Still a rough look.

Saturday, August 15th, is the closest we get to a highlight, but it’s a short-lived one. The morning brings a 5 ft SW swell with a 15-second period and a combined energy of 1005 (moderate). The breeze is light from the SW at 6 mph, staying onshore, but at least it’s a light breeze. This is the best the whole window gets, but it’s a "maybe" session – the waves will be there, but the wind is far from perfect. The afternoon goes downhill fast: cross-onshore wind at 12 mph, making it choppy and messy.

From Sunday, August 16th, all the way through to the end of the month, it’s a grim run. The swell sticks around in the 2 ft to 4 ft range, but the wind is persistently onshore (SW or WSW) at 9-12 mph. The wave comment for every single session after Saturday afternoon is "poor surf conditions." The combined energy drops from the 500s down to the 100s and 200s, showing that wave energy is getting weak. The period stays decent, often in the 13-18 second range, which would be great for a point break, but with that wind, it’s just a messy, lumpy sea.

The water temperature around here is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there. But for the surf, it’s a long stretch of nothing. You’ll be looking at almost two weeks of onshore junk. If you’re desperate, the Saturday morning (August 15th) is the only window worth a glance, and even then, keep your expectations low. Honestly, with this consistent onshore wind and marginal to poor surf quality, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The swell is consistent, but the wind kills it.

Rusty.

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