La Chocolatera Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, I’ll be honest with you, mate. This one’s a tough read. The guidance points to La Chocolatera as the only spot with any real potential in the 16-day window, but the finder data tells a pretty grim story. This is a classic case of a spot that’s inconsistent, and this forecast window is a real dry spell.

We’ve got a run of poor surf conditions stretching from the start of the outlook right through to the end. The swell is present, but it’s just not lining up. The water temperature is sitting at 80°, which is a whopping 10° warmer than normal for this time of year — that’s very unusual, and it’s the only thing that’s a bit out of the ordinary.

The first potential surf we see kicks off on Tuesday, July 28th, but it’s a no-go. The morning shows a 5ft swell from the SW with a very long period of 16 seconds, and the combined energy is a strong 1195. That sounds promising, but the wind is howling onshore from the SW at 12 mph, ruining any chance of a clean wave. The afternoon is much the same — a slight drop in wind, but still onshore and marginal.

Wednesday, July 29th, sees a similar story: 5ft SW swell, but the wind is cross-onshore at 9 mph, making it choppy. The energy drops to moderate (774). The trend continues for the rest of the week and into the next. The swell slowly fades from 4ft down to 2ft, and the period drops from 14 seconds down to 11 seconds, or even a short 7-second period on August 10th. The wind is almost always onshore or cross-onshore, keeping the surface messy.

There’s a faint glimmer on Friday, August 7th, with a 3ft SW swell, but the period jumps back up to a very long 16 seconds, and the energy is moderate (568). The wind is a light cross-onshore, which might give a few clean-ish waves if the tide is right, but it’s still a marginal call at best. The rest of the second week is a washout — tiny swell (2ft to 2ft), mostly onshore winds, and consistently poor surf quality.

The standout (if you can call it that) is the very first day, Tuesday, July 28th, and the morning of Friday, August 7th, simply because the swell is the biggest and the period is long. But for a point break like La Chocolatera, a long period SW groundswell is normally a good thing, but not when it’s being hammered by onshore wind. The optimum swell direction is from the SW, which matches the guidance, but the onshore wind kills it. With the combined energy being strong on the 28th (1195), it’s a shame the wind is so bad. For a point break with inconsistent surf, this is a real letdown.

Mate, I’m not going to sugarcoat it: there’s really nothing to get excited about here. The surf quality is poor across the board. The setup is more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer, to be honest. It’s a blank run, and for an inconsistent spot like La Chocolatera, this kind of dry spell is more normal than not. Keep an eye on the swell direction, but as it stands, leave your board at home.

Rusty.

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