La Chocolatera Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for La Chocolatera over the next couple of weeks.

First up, the water temp is sitting at a toasty 78.8°, which is a whopping 8.8° warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s seriously unusual, so you’ll be surfing in bathwater conditions if you get out there.

Now, the honest truth is this: the forecast is a bit of a struggle. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor surf conditions, with the first week mostly onshore winds and weak, choppy waves. The energy is low, with combined swell energy readings mostly in the 200s to 400s, which is weak to moderate at best. There’s a glimmer of a change around the 23rd of July, when the swell period suddenly jumps to 24 seconds on Thursday afternoon. That’s a very long period groundswell, but it’s only 2ft and the wind is still onshore, so it’s marginal at best. The combined energy ramps up to 531 then, but the quality isn’t there.

The real standout, if you can call it that, is the morning of Saturday the 25th of July. We’ve got a 3ft SW swell with a 19 second period, which is decent groundswell energy, and the combined energy hits 752, which is moderate. More importantly, the wind is a light cross-onshore at 6 mph from the S, which is the best wind we’ll see. That light breeze with small wind ripples is the cleanest the lineup will get. Keep in mind this spot is a point break that’s inconsistent and can get crowded sometimes, so you might have to share it.

After that, the swell builds through the 27th and 28th of July, with heights pushing 5ft to 5.5ft from the SW. That’s getting into the territory where it’s too big for beginners, and the combined energy spikes to 1474 and 1614, which is strong wave energy. But the wind is mostly onshore or cross-on, so the quality is still poor. By the 29th of July, the wind goes almost dead calm in the morning (3 mph from the SSW, onshore), and the swell drops to 4.5ft with a 14 second period. The combined energy is 781, which is moderate, but the condition is still only marginal. It’s a morning session worth checking, but don’t expect perfection.

The second week, from the 30th of July onward, the swell fades back to 1.5ft – 4ft with shorter periods, and the onshore winds stick around. The combined energy drops back to the 200s and 300s. There’s nothing that stands out as a must-surf in that second week; it’s a bit of a flat, choppy run.

Bottom line: if you’re dead set on surfing La Chocolatera, the best bet is the morning of Saturday the 25th of July. The light wind and long period swell give you the best shot at a clean wave, even if it’s small. The bigger swell in the days after that comes with too much wind.

Stay patient, mates. The ocean will turn.

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