Irmas/Leftpoint Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Irmas/Leftpoint over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, I gotta be straight with you – this outlook is a bit of a heartbreaker. The whole 16-day window is a struggle, with no real standout days to get genuinely excited about. The conditions are just persistently messy, and the swell never really lines up right with the wind. The water temp is sitting at 79°F on the 11th, which is bang on average for this time of year, so at least you won't be shivering while you wait for something decent.

Right from the start, on Saturday the 11th, we’ve got a 6ft swell from the ENE, but it’s a short period at 7 seconds. The wind is a strong cross-shore at 25 mph, churning the ocean into a cross-chop. The combined swell energy is weak (377), and the surf is just poor. That sets the tone for the whole first week. Through Sunday the 12th and Monday the 13th, the swell bumps up to 7ft, but the period is still short (8 seconds), and we’re stuck with a harsh cross-shore wind. The energy climbs a bit – up to 805 on Monday morning – but it’s all wind-affected chop. For a reef break, that’s just not fun.

The wind does ease a little by Tuesday the 14th, dropping to a moderate breeze, but the swell drops to 5ft, and the period stays short. The conditions are still lumpy and cross-shore. By Wednesday the 15th, the swell is down to 4ft, and the wind swings cross-on, making for a choppy, weak mess. Honestly, through this whole first week, the setup is so poor for surfing that it’d be more interesting for kite surfing than a paddle session.

We hit a bit of a weird shift on Thursday the 16th. The swell drops to 2ft, but we get a very long-period groundswell from the SSW at 16 seconds. The energy is moderate (310), but the wind is still a fresh cross-shore. The wave heights are just too small to make much of it, and the long period will likely make the small waves break pretty straight. This pattern of a small, long-period SSW swell pops up again on the 16th afternoon, 17th afternoon, and 20th morning, but the size is just never enough to get excited about, especially with the cross-shore wind.

The second week rolls in with more of the same. The 21st and 22nd of July see swell back up to 6ft-6ft, but the wind is cross-on and moderate, creating choppy, poor surf. The energy is moderate (up to 791), but it’s all messy.

The only time we see a flicker of something different is on the 23rd of July. The swell is still small at 3ft, but it’s a very long-period groundswell from the SSW, with periods of 21 seconds. The combined energy is strong (1239), and the wind is a moderate cross-shore, which is better than what we’ve had. The forecast calls it “marginal,” and for a reef break, a long-period SSW swell coming in at 3ft with a cross-shore wind is a really tough call. It might offer a few clean, fat lines, but it’s a gamble. This pattern of small, long-period SSW swell continues through the 24th and 25th, but the wind picks up again, killing the potential.

The 26th of July is the last day in the window, and we see another pulse of that long-period S swell, 5ft at 19 seconds. The energy is very strong (1497), but again, the wind is a moderate cross-shore. It’s another marginal call, but it’s the only day in the entire window where the swell height and energy could combine for a few decent waves if the wind holds. It’s a long-range hope, not a sure thing.

So, bottom line, there’s nothing here that’s a true standout. If you’re desperate, the 26th of July is the most promising day, but it’s a long way off and very uncertain. For the rest of the time, I’d suggest finding another hobby for a few weeks.

Rusty.

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