Irmas/Leftpoint Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. It’s gonna be a tough stretch of days for the Irmas/Leftpoint (reef) area. The outlook is pretty grim. Looking at the whole 16-day window, the first solid wave of any real note doesn’t show up right away, but there’s a lot of wind and chop to deal with before we even get close to something decent. The water is sitting at a warm 80°, which is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

The forecast starts on Thursday, 30 July with a 5ft ENE swell (8 seconds) and a cross-on breeze blowing 16 mph. The combined energy is in the moderate range (457), but the wind is messing it up. It’s choppy and poor. That pattern sticks around for days. Friday, 31 July sees the swell bump up to 6ft and then 7ft, but the wind cranks to 22-25 mph from the same ENE direction, making it lumpy and cross-choppy. Saturday, 1 August, the swell jumps to a solid 10ft, but it’s still cross-shore with a strong breeze (25-28 mph). The energy is cranking (1490-1517), but the wind is absolutely ruining it. This is more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddling one. The conditions are messy and ugly.

For beginners, that 10ft swell is way too big anyway. For the experts, the wind is just too strong to enjoy it. The consistency is fairly consistent, but the quality just isn’t there. The swell direction is mainly ENE, which is not the optimum ESE direction for this spot.

There’s a small glimmer on Tuesday, 4 August. The morning shows a 5ft ENE swell, but the period jumps to 11 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell with more energy and shape. The combined energy is 712 (moderate), and the wind drops to 12 mph from the ENE, still cross, but it’s a moderate breeze. The forecast calls it marginal, but it’s the best on offer in the first week. The tide conditions might be a factor, but it’s the only window that looks even remotely worth a look. The long period will make it better for the reef setup, but the cross-shore wind will still leave a bit of chop. It’s not a standout, just the least ugly of the lot.

The rest of the first week and into the second week is a write-off. From 5 August to 8 August, it’s the same story: 4ft to 5ft swell, poor wind, and poor surf conditions. The energy is weak to moderate (258-400). The crowds are sometimes an issue here, but honestly, with this forecast, you won’t have to worry about anyone else.

On Sunday, 9 August, there’s a wild shift. A long-period groundswell from the S (19 seconds) pops up, but it’s only 2ft to 3ft. The energy is moderate (409-611), but the wind is still a fresh cross-shore. It’s too small and messy to do anything with. That pattern of S/SSW swell continues through Monday, 10 August and Tuesday, 11 August, with the period dropping from 16 to 15 seconds, but the swell stays tiny (3ft to 3ft). The wind is still cross or cross-on. No good.

The final days, from 12 August to 14 August, revert back to the ENE swell (4ft to 6ft) and the same old cross-onshore wind. The energy is weak (215-429). It’s a flat, windy mess right to the end.

There is no true standout in this forecast. The best option is Tuesday, 4 August, with that 5ft, 11-second groundswell and lighter wind, but it’s more of a “maybe” than a “definitely”. For the rest of it, you’re better off staying home. The area is fairly consistent, so it won’t stay this poor forever, but this run is a long one.

Rusty.

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