Irmas/Leftpoint Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get stuck into the outlook for Irmas/Leftpoint. Straight up, it’s a tough run ahead. We’ve got a solid reef setup that loves an ESE swell, but for the next couple of weeks, the wind is just not playing ball. Pretty much the whole 16-day window is plagued by a persistent cross-shore breeze, mostly from the ENE, and it’s blowing fresh to strong. That’s going to leave the surface messy with lumpy cross-chop, and the wave comment is consistently "poor surf conditions." The water temp is sitting at a pretty normal 79°F, about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Let’s walk through it from Wednesday July 8th. Right from the get-go, we’ve got 7ft of swell from the ENE with a short, weak period of just 7 seconds. The combined energy is moderate at 692, but with a 25 mph cross-wind, it’s just a mess. That trend sticks like glue right through the first week. Thursday the 9th through to Friday the 17th is a real grind. Swell hangs around the 6ft to 8ft range, but that period rarely gets above 8 seconds, and the wind is always cross-shore - either a fresh breeze or a strong breeze. The energy numbers bounce between 300 and 977, which is moderate but not enough to overcome the chop. For a reef like this, you need clean conditions, and we just aren't getting them. The setup looks far more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing through this stretch because the wind is consistent and strong, but the waves are chopped out.

There is a slight shift come Saturday July 18th. The swell jacks up to a solid 10ft from the ENE, with a better 9-second period. The combined energy goes strong at 1302, but it’s still cross-onshore with a lumpy texture. At 10ft, this is expert territory, and with the wind ruining the face, it’s hard to get excited. Sunday the 19th and Monday the 20th see the swell dropping back to 7-8ft, but the wind stays cross-shore. We’re still in "poor surf conditions" territory.

Then on Tuesday July 21st, there’s a flicker of hope. The swell direction swings to the NE, the height drops right down to 3ft, but the period jumps to a very long 17 seconds. The energy is still high at 1266, and the wind drops to a moderate 16 mph. It’s still cross-shore though, and the forecast is only "marginal." That long-period groundswell is best for points and reefs, which is what we have here, but a 3ft wave at a reef with cross-chop is a tough ask.

Wednesday July 22nd and Thursday July 23rd fade out. The swell drops to 3ft by the 23rd, period drops to 13 seconds, and the energy falls away to around 476. The wind is still cross-shore and fresh, so it’s back to poor conditions.

If I had to pick the best of a bad bunch, it’s a toss-up between Monday July 20th and Tuesday July 21st. On the 20th, you’ve got a clean 7ft at 8 seconds with a 19 mph cross-wind, which is at least slightly weaker than earlier in the week. But the true standout is Tuesday July 21st. That 3ft swell with a 17-second period is a proper groundswell, and while the wind is still a problem, the energy is high at 1266 and the direction is better matched to the optimum. It’s not great, but it's the most promising session in a bleak outlook. Crowds are possible at Irmas/Leftpoint too, which is worth keeping in mind.

Overall, it’s a frustrating 16 days. The reef wants to work, but the wind just won’t let it. Keep an eye on that Tuesday July 21st for a potential clean-up if the wind backs off.

Rusty.

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