Irmas/Leftpoint Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Gotta be honest, looking at the 16-day window for the region, it’s a bit of a rough stretch. We've got a lot of cross-shore wind and messy conditions to wade through. The first proper surf on offer doesn't kick off until early in the period, so let's get into it.

We’re starting Saturday morning, the 12th of September at Irmas/Leftpoint. The water’s sitting at 81°, which is pretty average for this time of year, nothing unusual there. The swell is small, only 3ft from the ENE with a period of 10 seconds, and with that ENE wind blowing 12 mph it’s a cross-shore mess. The combined energy is weak, only 220, and the comment says it all – poor surf conditions. That’s the story for a long run. Saturday arvo, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday… the script barely changes. We see the swell bounce between 2ft and 3ft, but the wind stays cross or cross-on from the ENE or NE, gusting from 12 mph up to 16 mph. The period is mostly short, around 6 to 12 seconds, and the combined energy rarely breaks into three digits, peaking at a weak 262 on Monday morning. There’s nothing surfable here.

Then we hit Wednesday the 16th of September. The morning is a write-off with 25 mph cross-shore winds and a weak 4ft swell (energy 186). But Wednesday arvo… the swell direction flips to the SSW with a period of 18 seconds – that’s very long period groundswell. The size drops to 3ft, but the energy jumps to 875, moderate. Still, the wind is a fresh 22 mph cross-shore, so it’s lumpy and messy. Not worth paddling out.

Thursday the 17th of September, the swell picks up proper size – 8ft in the morning, 7ft in the arvo, both from the ENE with periods of 8 to 10 seconds. The energy is strong though, over 1000 (1070 and 1072). But that ENE wind is howling at 22-25 mph cross-shore, making it a full-on windy, lumpy mess. For most, that’s a no-go. That’s expert territory in terms of size, but with that wind, it’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle session.

Friday the 18th of September arvo, we finally get a sniff. The swell is 3ft from the SSW with a long 17-second period. The combined energy is strong at 1010. The comment says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions” and gets a score of 1 out of 10. The wind is still fresh from the ENE at 19 mph cross-shore, so it’s lumpy. Honestly, it’s not a standout, but it’s the closest thing to a wave we’ve seen.

The pattern continues with more cross-shore wind and messy conditions through the 19th and 20th of September. The swell hangs around 6ft to 6ft from the E or ENE, with short periods (7-8 seconds), and the wind is fresh to strong cross-shore or cross-on. Energy is moderate to strong (700-929), but the quality is just poor.

We get another slight uptick on the 23rd of September, Wednesday. The swell builds to 7ft from the E with a 10-second period. The morning and arvo both get a score of 2 out of 10 with “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” The wind is moderate ENE cross-shore at 12-16 mph. Energy is very strong – 1145 and 1166. This is the biggest, most powerful swell of the whole window, but the cross-shore wind still kills the quality. It’s a 7ft wave, which is expert level size, and with that breeze, it’s only for the keenest or those with a kite. The long-period SW groundswells that pop up later in the window (2ft-3ft, 14-18 seconds) don’t have enough size to overcome the strong cross-shore winds.

So, overall, the best on offer is a tough call. If you absolutely had to pick, the marginal window on Friday the 18th of September arvo gives you a long-period SSW groundswell at 3ft with strong energy, but you’re fighting that fresh lumpy cross-shore. The 23rd of September morning/afternoon has the biggest swell at 7ft with very strong energy, but again, cross-shore wind. For a clean wave, there is just no good standout in this 16-day run. It’s a long, frustrating stretch of poor conditions. The ENE trades just won’t let up.

Stay patient, check the charts, and hope the wind swings.

Rusty.

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