Irmas/Leftpoint Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Right off the bat, I’ve got to be straight with you – this outlook is a tough one. We’ve only got one break on the menu, Irmas/Leftpoint, and for the next week and a half, it’s looking pretty grim. The wind is stuck in a cross or cross-on pattern, mostly from the ENE, and it’s blowing a solid 15 to 22 mph. That’s creating a lumpy, choppy mess. The first actual surf recommendation doesn’t show up until the morning of July 24th, and even then it’s only a 1 out of 10, described as marginal. So we’re looking at a long, dry gap of about 10 days with no real surf to speak of.

Let’s break it down. The water temp is sitting at 79°F with a tiny anomaly of 0.2°, so that’s totally average for the time of year. No surprises there.

From July 14th all the way through July 23rd, every single session is rated zero. The swell is all over the place – short-period junk from the NE and ENE, mixed with some longer-period SSW pulses that look good on paper but the wind absolutely ruins it. The combined swell energy is moderate to strong (values in the 400s to 700s), but it’s all wasted energy. It’s like having a full tank of gas in a car with four flat tyres.

The best we’ve got is the morning of July 24th. It’s still not great, with a score of just 1 out of 10, but it’s the first glimmer we see. The swell is 2 ft from the SSW, with a very long period of 18 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell. The combined energy is strong at 759. The wind is still cross-shore from the ENE, but it’s a moderate 15 mph, so it’s not as nasty as the fresh breeze we’ve been dealing with. The wave comment says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions,” so it’s a gamble. But if you’re desperate, this is the moment to paddle out. The long period means it’s best for a reef setup like this, but it could break a bit straight.

After that, things improve slightly. July 26th and 27th see the swell bump up to 4 ft to 4 ft from the E, with a solid 16-second period. The combined energy jumps into the four-digit range (1036 to 1072), which is strong. Still, the wind is a fresh cross-shore from the ENE at 19-22 mph, keeping things lumpy. These are marginal days, scoring 1 out of 10.

The best of the whole outlook, and the only one that gets a score of 2, is a small window on the morning of July 29th. The swell is 4 ft from the ENE with a 12-second period, combined energy of 524. The wind drops to a light breeze, just 6 mph from the ENE, which is still cross-shore but much cleaner. The wave comment says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions,” but the light wind makes it the most rideable day of the whole 16-day run. It’s not a standout by any stretch, but it’s the best we’ve got.

Irmas/Leftpoint is a fairly consistent reef break that’s exposed to the ESE, and it’s an intermediate wave. Crowds are possible here, so keep an eye out. But honestly, with the wind howling the way it is, this setup might honestly be more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing for most of the period.

Keep your hopes up, though. The consistency of the break means it usually doesn’t stay this poor for long, and forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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