Irmas/Leftpoint Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break down what’s happening over the next couple of weeks. I’m not going to sugarcoat it: the forecast is a bit of a bummer. We’ve got a lot of wind and chop to deal with, and it’s going to keep the surf poor more often than not.

The pulse out of the east-northeast builds over the weekend of the 9th and 10th. Swell gets up to 1.8m-1.9m, and the combined energy is strong, hitting the 600-700 range (687) on Sunday afternoon. But the cross-shore breeze is going to make it lumpy. It’s not the kind of day you’re burning gas for.

Your best bet looks like the middle of the week, around Wednesday the 12th. That’s when we get a push of long-period south swell – 18 seconds – with strong combined energy, hitting 949 by the afternoon. This is a groundswell with some juice, and at Irmas/Leftpoint, a reef, it might have a bit more shape than the beach breaks. The wind is still cross-shore, which is a shame, so it won’t be glassy, but it’s the most promising surf up to that point. The direction is southerly, which isn’t ideal for this spot that prefers an ESE angle, so it won't be a perfect match.

Then we get the big, messy stuff. From the 14th, that ENE swell ramps up fast. We go from 2.5m on Friday morning to 3.5m by Saturday morning, with strong cross-onshore winds at 45 km/h. The combined energy explodes, hitting a massive 2203 on Saturday afternoon. With that much size and wind, this is not a paddle surfing day. It’s a full-on, hold-onto-your-hats, possibly-kite-surfing type of situation. The wave faces will be big and blown out. The 17th and 18th still have 3.0m of swell, but the wind stays fresh and cross, keeping the surface messy.

As we head into the 19th, the swell drops back to 1.7m-1.8m, but we’ve got a chance of thunderstorms and a fresh easterly breeze. Still not clean. The last few days of the window, the swell fades to 1.2m-1.3m, but that ENE wind at 35 km/h is still cross-shore. Not great.

So, the long and short of it is, we have only one real window of opportunity, and even that is compromised. The Wednesday to Thursday of the 12th and 13th is your best shot. Water temp is about average for the season at 27°, so a spring suit is fine.

Keep the faith.

Rusty

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