Irmas/Leftpoint Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is a tough one to call. I’ve been staring at the charts for Irmas/Leftpoint (reef break) and honestly, the whole 16-day window is a bit of a struggle. The dominant wind is a persistent cross-shore from the ENE, and that’s just not doing us any favours. It’s creating a lumpy, cross-chop on the surface for most of the period, which is a real shame because the swell energy is actually there.

Let’s start with what we’ve got. On Tuesday the 11th, the swell is coming in from the SSW at 3 ft, period 14 seconds, with a combined energy of 545 (moderate). The water is sitting at 81°, which is about average for this time of year. But the wind... it’s a fresh 22 mph cross-shore, and the report says “poor surf conditions.” That’s the story for the next several days. Wednesday the 12th and Thursday the 13th are much the same – a bit of S swell, decent period (15-18 seconds), but that wind is just ruining the surface. The energy picks up into the moderate to strong range (897 to 1012), but the quality is just not there.

The first real standout for size comes on Friday the 14th afternoon. We see the swell jump to 7 ft from the ENE, but with a short period of 8 seconds. That’s a lot of bumpy, wind-affected water. The energy is 961 (moderate). Still, the wind is cross-shore at 22 mph, so it’s messy.

Saturday the 15th is where it gets big – and mean. The morning has 8 ft from the ENE (11 seconds, energy 1908 – strong), and by the afternoon it’s 10 ft from the ENE (11 seconds, energy 2423 – very strong). The wind is cranking, 28-31 mph cross-shore, turning into a near gale. This is experts-only territory, and even then, it’s going to be a washing machine. For the average surfer, this is a skip.

Sunday the 16th is the most interesting, but also the most dangerous. The wind finally swings offshore from the ESE at 22 mph in the morning and 16 mph from the SE in the afternoon. That’s pure offshore. The swell is 12 ft from the E in the morning, period 10 seconds, energy 2284 (very strong) and 10 ft in the afternoon. This is a massive, powerful, offshore wind day. For a reef break like Irmas/Leftpoint, these long-period (10s is moderate-long) swells can be phenomenal. But 10 – 12 ft is big, powerful, and definitely not for the faint of heart. It’s a standout for the sheer power and clean conditions, but only for experienced big-wave surfers.

The week after that, from Monday the 17th onwards, the swell drops back and the cross-shore wind returns. The energy levels drop from strong (1171) down to moderate (323) by the 19th. There’s a brief moment on Monday the 17th morning with a gentle 9 mph cross-onshore wind and 8 ft ENE swell, but it’s short-lived. The rest of the week is a mix of short-period windswell and those long-period southerly pulses that just get chopped up by the wind. By the 20th, we’re back to tiny 2 ft SSW swell.

The last week of the forecast, from the 22nd to the 26th, is more of the same. The swell stays small, mostly 2 ft to 5 ft, and the cross-shore wind never really lets up. There’s a late pulse of 7 ft from the ENE on the 26th afternoon, but with a 7-second period and strong cross-shore wind, it’s just messy.

So, the best on offer? It’s the Sunday the 16th. The offshore wind and the 10-12 ft swell from the E is a true, dangerous standout. But it’s a big call. The rest of the period is a frustrating mix of decent swell energy and poor wind. If you’re a beginner, stay away from the whole window. If you’re an expert, wait for that Sunday 16th.

Rusty.

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