Horse Trails Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's break down what's on the cards for Horse Trails over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, so we need to pick our moments.

Overall Pattern

We’ve got a decent pulse of SW groundswell coming through, but the wind is going to be a real pain in the neck for large parts of the forecast. The first few days have some punchy swell, but it’s not until later in the period that we see a real clean-up. The standout sessions are few and far between, so you’ll need to be ready to pull the trigger when the stars align.

The First Week (12th – 19th September)

We kick off on Saturday the 12th with a solid SW swell of 6ft mixing with a 14-second period. Unfortunately, the winds are a firm 12 mph SE, making it a cross-off breeze. It keeps the faces reasonably clean, but it’s not perfect. The wave energy is moderate (2007) – there’s definitely some push there, but the tide could throw a spanner in the works. Conditions are a bit marginal.

The real gem in this first stretch looks to be Sunday morning, September 13th. We’ve got a clean 6ft SW swell at 14 seconds with a lighter 9 mph ESE wind that’s still cross-off (moderate wave energy at 1563). The report mentions excellent conditions for experienced surfers, and with that period on a sandbar setup like Horse Trails, the shape should be pretty lined up. It’s the best we've got in this early run, and the water temp is about average for this time of year.

The rest of the first week is a write-off for the most part. Winds swing NNW, gusting 19-22 mph through Monday and Tuesday, turning the ocean into lumpy, cross-chop slop. Swell drops and the wave energy gets weak (617). Wednesday the 16th brings a bigger 8ft WSW swell, but it’s marred by a moderate cross-shore chop and winds of 16 mph. By Thursday, we're still in the cross-chop with a 6ft SSW swell, but it’s not clean. It’s not until Friday morning the 18th we get another clean window. That morning looks good with a 7ft SW swell and offshore ESE breezes at 9 mph (wave energy at 1661). It’s another session where the description says it’s excellent for experienced surfers, but the afternoon gets a bit messy.

The Second Week (20th – 27th September)

Sunday the 20th is worth a look first thing. We’ve got a clean 6ft SW swell with a light onshore breeze from the SSE (903 combined energy). It’s a bit smaller but very surfable. After that, the swell fades early in the week with 3ft to 4ft WSW windswell, making for weak and unappealing conditions.

But hold onto your boardies. Wednesday morning, September 23rd is the one to circle on the calendar. We’ve got a solid 10ft SW swell rolling in with a 12-second period. The wind is a light, 9 mph NNE breeze – a nice cross-off. That adds up to serious power, with 2493 combined energy. The report flat-out says the wind and tide are favorable. However, and this is a big "however", at 10ft, this is expert territory only. Horse Trails as a sandbar is not going to handle that much size for the average punter. It’s going to be a big, powerful, and potentially dangerous day.

The rest of the week goes downhill fast. That swell sticks around but gets hammered by horrible winds from the WNW and WSW blowing 19-25 mph with rain. Total mess. By the time we get to Saturday the 26th, the swell drops back to 7ft from the W but it’s still a cross-shore mess.

The final morning of the period, Sunday the 27th, shows real promise. The wind goes totally glassy out of the East at 3 mph (cross-off). The swell is a cleaner 5ft from the West with an 11-second period (1013 combined energy). It’s a little inconsistent, but with those glassy conditions, it’s going to be fun and clean for a solid intermediate session.

The Verdict

The true standouts are Sunday morning, September 13th, for the best combo of decent size and clean conditions, and Sunday morning, September 27th, for the glassy, user-friendly waves. For the big dog experts, Wednesday the 23rd is a massive, powerful day if you’ve got the skills and the nerve.

Keep an eye on the forecasts for the clean mornings – the rest is either too windy or too big for the average surfer at this sandbar.

Catch you in the water.

Rusty.

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