El Medano Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's be straight with you – we're looking at a pretty lean stretch ahead for El Medano. The forecast is long but the action is mostly missing. I'll walk you through it.

The overall pattern is dominated by persistent cross-onshore winds, mostly from the ENE, and only tiny, inconsistent waves. For the first week and a half, there's barely a whisper of a decent wave.

Sunday the 5th starts us off with a tiny 1ft (49 energy) SSW groundswell and glassy conditions, but it's labelled as poor surf. Monday the 6th is similar, with a choppy 4ft of windswell but a short 4-second period, making it a messy, non-riding option. This theme of light to moderate cross-onshore winds and poor surf conditions continues right through until Wednesday the 15th. The wave energy stays low to moderate (mostly two-digit values like 49, 56, 73, with a few three-digit figures like 102, 163, 290), but the wind direction and size just don't line up for El Medano. The only real glimmer in this period is Wednesday afternoon the 8th – we get a glassy surface with a long 16-second period SSW groundswell at 1ft. The conditions are described as "surfable waves but very ordinary", so it's barely a blip.

Then we get to the second week. From the 10th through to the 20th, the wind stays stubbornly cross-onshore from the ENE, often fresh to strong. The wave heights stay small, mostly under 3ft, and the combined wave energy actually climbs to strong values (like 425 on the 11th morning, 540 on the 18th morning). But with a constant strong cross-onshore wind, that energy just translates to messy, lumpy, or choppy water. Not the clean lines we're after.

There's a brief standout, but it's a long way off. On Friday, July 17th, the morning session is looking interesting. We've got a glassy surface, a clean 5ft swell coming from the NNE (a direction that’s not optimum for this SSW-favoured spot, but let's see), with a moderate 8-second period. The combined wave energy is strong at 384. The forecast says "expect good surf conditions". This is the one to circle on the calendar. But it's a week and a half away, so don't buy the flights just yet – long-range hope is a dangerous thing.

Given that El Medano is a beach and reef break that "rarely breaks", and the entire 16-day outlook is dominated by poor surf conditions and relentless onshore wind, I honestly think this setup looks more interesting for a kite session than a paddle session for the majority of the period. The water temp is 72°, which is about average for the time of year. Crowds are listed as "sometimes", but honestly, there won't be many surfers out in conditions like this.

Rusty out.

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