El Medano Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee, let’s have a look at this. It’s Rusty here.

To be honest, for the next 16 days, El Medano is going to be a real tough nut to crack. The swell is coming from the wrong direction for the most part, and the wind is almost always cross-onshore, which is going to chop things up. The first decent window of surf doesn’t really kick off until Monday the 13th of July, with a small, long-period SSW groundswell rolling in at 3 ft. The combined wave energy sits at 372 (moderate), so there’s some push, but the issue is the cross-onshore wind from the east at 6 mph. It’s going to be a bit bumpy, and with the break being “rarely breaks,” you’re rolling the dice. The water temp is 73°, which is about normal for this time of year.

After that initial Monday afternoon, it’s a grim stretch. From Tuesday morning, July 14th, right through to the end of the month, the forecast is littered with “poor surf conditions” and scores of 0. The swell stays small and mostly from the NE, which is not the optimum SSW direction for this spot. The wind doesn’t let up, either. For example, Thursday the 16th shows strong cross-onshore winds of 25 mph with a messy 4 ft NE swell, and that pattern keeps repeating. You’ll see a few days like Saturday the 18th where the swell bumps up to 6 ft (combined energy 355, moderate), but it’s paired with a 12 mph cross-onshore wind, making it choppy junk.

There is a brief glimmer on Monday the 20th of July. The morning sees a 4 ft swell from the NNE with a light cross-shore breeze (6 mph) and combined energy of 304 (moderate). The guidance says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions,” but it’s the closest thing to a cleanish window you’ll get. The same goes for Thursday the 23rd morning, with a 5 ft NE swell and only a 3 mph wind, but again, the direction is wrong and the period is short (7 seconds). The break is “rarely breaks,” so these are long shots.

The second week doesn’t offer any redemption. The surf stays small and messy, with the wind staying fresh from the NE or ENE. The standout is probably the Monday the 20th morning, but it’s a real “maybe” situation. The best option is to look at the Monday 13th afternoon, but it’s a marginal call. This is a tough stretch for paddle surfing; the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing given the persistent cross-onshore winds and lumpy conditions.

Rusty.

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