El Medano Surf Break

Lat Long: 28.04° N 16.54° W

El Medano Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 12 pm 10 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's El Medano sea temperature is
22.2° C
0.0° 

El Medano surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


El Medano surf forecast from 10 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 11 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 2ft (0.6m), 19s period, SSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 13 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 16s period, SSW swell with 427 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 11 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 1ft (0.3m), 21s period with SSW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for El Medano this week:

The surf forecast for El Medano over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 11) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.3m and 21s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 14s. Another secondary swell of 0.4m and 4s is also forecast. Another secondary swell of 0.7m and 4s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at El Medano in the next 16 days are 0.9m 16s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 13) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.5m 8s period and expected on Monday (Jul 13) at 7PM.

Wave TypeTime (WEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 1AM (Sat 11th Jul)1ft (0.3m) 21s
Best Surf 1PM (Sat 11th Jul)2ft (0.6m) 19s
Most Powerful 7AM (Mon 13th Jul)3ft (0.9m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for El Medano over the next 16 days.


Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be honest, this 16-day stretch for El Medano is a tough one. It’s a classic case of waiting for the right window, and that window is pretty damn small. Most of the time, that easterly wind blows straight across our faces, making a mess of things. You’ll see a few pulses of swell, but unless the wind plays ball, it’s just not worth paddling out for.

The standout of the entire run, and really the only time things come together, is Saturday afternoon, July 11th. That’s when we get a rare moment of glass. The wind swings light from the west and for a few hours it goes completely flat calm – glassy. There’s a long period, 19 to 20 second groundswell from the SSW pushing in at a tiny 2 ft. The combined swell energy is moderate (357 to 400). It’s small, but with that kind of period and zero wind, El Medano might just offer up a few clean, peelers. Keep your expectations low on size, but the shape could be really fun. The water temp is 72° which is about normal for this time of year.

Saturday morning before that, the 11th, the wind is light but cross-shore, so it’s going to be a bit bumpy with ripples – marginal at best.

Now, from Sunday the 12th all the way through to the 17th, it’s a write-off. That cross-onshore ENE wind just kills it, blowing straight across the break. The swell gets bigger, especially around the 17th when it hits 5 ft to 6 ft from the NNE (swell energy 375 to 604), but the wind is a fresh to strong breeze. The waves will be lumpy, messy, and blown out. Absolutely not worth it.

We get a glimmer of hope on Saturday morning, July 18th. The wind turns light and cross-shore, and there’s a 6 ft NNE swell with an 8-second period and energy of 743. This is a moderate-sized, short-period swell. The conditions are rated as marginal, so expect some chop from the cross-shore flow. It won’t be perfect, but it might be the most size you’ll see with a chance of something ridable. After that, it’s back to strong onshores again.

After the 18th, the swell stays between 5 ft and 7 ft, but it’s constantly under the pump of easterly winds, making for ugly, choppy conditions. There’s even a pulse to 7 ft from the NNE on Sunday the 19th (energy of 1176 – very strong wave energy), but with a 15 mph cross-onshore wind, it’s not for paddling. That kind of power with that wind is more of a kite-surfing setup.

In the second week, there are a few more marginal moments – like Tuesday morning, the 21st, with a cross-shore wind and 6 ft NE swell (energy 801). But again, the wind will create a messy cross-chop. It’s going to be a struggle. By the 22nd, the swell drops back to tiny 2 ft SSW stuff, but the wind remains onshore.

Honestly, for a beginner, most of the bigger days here are going to be too blown out to be safe or fun. The only session to really circle on the calendar is that glassy Saturday afternoon, the 11th. It’s small, but it’s clean.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Warm (max 23°C on Fri morning, min 21°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Warm (max 26°C on Wed afternoon, min 21°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (light winds from the ENE on Mon night, strong winds from the ENE by Wed afternoon).

Friday
10
Saturday
11
Sunday
12
Monday
13
Tuesday
14
Wednesday
15
Thursday
16
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
1
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.4
SSW
15
0.4
SSW
15
0.3
SSW
21
0.6
SSW
20
0.6
SSW
19
0.6
SSW
18
0.7
SSW
18
0.6
SSW
17
0.7
SSW
16
0.7
SSW
16
0.9
SSW
15
0.7
SSW
14
0.7
SSW
14
0.6
SSW
13
0.5
S
13
0.4
SSW
13
1.2
ENE
5
1.1
NE
6
1.1
NE
6
1.2
NE
6
1.7
NNE
6
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
77
72
89
298
295
246
326
227
269
263
305
218
207
137
87
55
72
80
72
109
183
Wind (km/h)
20
ENE
25
ENE
5
NE
5
S
5
W
15
ENE
20
ENE
10
ENE
15
NE
10
ENE
15
ENE
10
NE
15
ENE
25
ENE
25
ENE
15
NE
40
ENE
20
NE
30
NE
35
NE
35
NE
Wind State
cross-on
cross-on
glassy
cross
glassy
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
High Tide
10:20AM1.60m
10:50PM1.62m
11:27AM1.71m
11:59PM1.71m
12:26PM1.85m
00:58AM1.80m
1:20PM1.99m
1:52AM1.88m
2:09PM2.10m
2:41AM1.91m
2:56PM2.17m
3:27AM1.91m
3:42PM2.18m
Low Tide
4:34PM0.47m
5:06AM0.39m
5:44PM0.34m
6:08AM0.30m
6:45PM0.20m
7:03AM0.21m
7:39PM0.07m
7:52AM0.14m
8:30PM-0.02m
8:39AM0.10m
9:17PM-0.04m
9:23AM0.10m
10:03PM-0.01m
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:16
7:16
7:16
7:18
7:18
7:18
7:18
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
9:05
9:05
9:05
9:05
9:05
9:04
9:04
 mm
Temp °C
23
23
22
23
23
22
22
22
22
22
23
22
23
24
22
25
26
24
25
27
27
Feels °C
22
20
22
24
26
24
21
22
23
22
23
22
22
22
20
22
22
22
21
22
21
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the El Medano Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for El Medano provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at El Medano can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our El Medano surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (El Medano) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for El Medano may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

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