El Medano Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be honest, this 16-day stretch for El Medano is a tough one. It’s a classic case of waiting for the right window, and that window is pretty damn small. Most of the time, that easterly wind blows straight across our faces, making a mess of things. You’ll see a few pulses of swell, but unless the wind plays ball, it’s just not worth paddling out for.

The standout of the entire run, and really the only time things come together, is Saturday afternoon, July 11th. That’s when we get a rare moment of glass. The wind swings light from the west and for a few hours it goes completely flat calm – glassy. There’s a long period, 19 to 20 second groundswell from the SSW pushing in at a tiny 2 ft. The combined swell energy is moderate (357 to 400). It’s small, but with that kind of period and zero wind, El Medano might just offer up a few clean, peelers. Keep your expectations low on size, but the shape could be really fun. The water temp is 72° which is about normal for this time of year.

Saturday morning before that, the 11th, the wind is light but cross-shore, so it’s going to be a bit bumpy with ripples – marginal at best.

Now, from Sunday the 12th all the way through to the 17th, it’s a write-off. That cross-onshore ENE wind just kills it, blowing straight across the break. The swell gets bigger, especially around the 17th when it hits 5 ft to 6 ft from the NNE (swell energy 375 to 604), but the wind is a fresh to strong breeze. The waves will be lumpy, messy, and blown out. Absolutely not worth it.

We get a glimmer of hope on Saturday morning, July 18th. The wind turns light and cross-shore, and there’s a 6 ft NNE swell with an 8-second period and energy of 743. This is a moderate-sized, short-period swell. The conditions are rated as marginal, so expect some chop from the cross-shore flow. It won’t be perfect, but it might be the most size you’ll see with a chance of something ridable. After that, it’s back to strong onshores again.

After the 18th, the swell stays between 5 ft and 7 ft, but it’s constantly under the pump of easterly winds, making for ugly, choppy conditions. There’s even a pulse to 7 ft from the NNE on Sunday the 19th (energy of 1176 – very strong wave energy), but with a 15 mph cross-onshore wind, it’s not for paddling. That kind of power with that wind is more of a kite-surfing setup.

In the second week, there are a few more marginal moments – like Tuesday morning, the 21st, with a cross-shore wind and 6 ft NE swell (energy 801). But again, the wind will create a messy cross-chop. It’s going to be a struggle. By the 22nd, the swell drops back to tiny 2 ft SSW stuff, but the wind remains onshore.

Honestly, for a beginner, most of the bigger days here are going to be too blown out to be safe or fun. The only session to really circle on the calendar is that glassy Saturday afternoon, the 11th. It’s small, but it’s clean.

Rusty.

Read more