El Medano Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – the outlook for the next 16 days around El Medano is a tough one. We’ve got a long stretch of poor surf conditions ahead, so don’t be holding your breath for any magic sessions.

The water temp is sitting at 74°, which is about 0.9° warmer than usual for this time of year – nothing wild, just a touch above average, so you’ll be fine in a shorty or a spring suit.

The problem is the wind. It’s coming hard out of the NE and ENE, blowing strong and cross-onshore pretty much every day. That’s just wrecking any chance of clean waves. The swell is mostly short-period, lumpy junk from the northeast, with combined energy (258) in the moderate range on the 6th, and it stays weak to moderate (103 to 241) for days. The first surf recommendation? Well, there really isn’t one. The first record shows Thursday morning, August 6th, with 6ft from the NE, but the wind is 25 mph cross-onshore. It’s messy, choppy, and poor. That sets the tone.

This pattern of strong cross-onshore winds and small, weak, short-period northeast swell drags on through the entire first week and into the second. There’s a gap of several days with no real recommendation – everything is consistently poor. The only small shift comes around the 17th and 18th of August, when we finally see a change in swell direction. We get a longer-period, 15-second SSW groundswell showing up on Monday the 17th. The swell is tiny though, only 2ft to 2ft. The combined energy (406 to 466) is moderate, but the wind is still cross-onshore at 19 mph. It’s still poor surf.

Later, on Thursday the 20th of August, we see a nice 16-second SSW swell with 3ft, and combined energy (433) in the moderate range. The wind drops to a light 6 mph cross-onshore, but it’s still onshore, not offshore. It’s the best-looking window in the whole 16 days – but that’s not saying much. The conditions are still described as poor surf, and the light wind just makes it a bit less choppy.

Honestly, for a break that’s a beach and reef setup, exposed to a SSW optimum, but stuck with this constant NE wind, it’s just not happening. The spot rarely breaks as it is, and this forecast doesn’t give us a single clean window. There’s no standout, no day to circle on the calendar. A blank run like this is more normal for the area when the trades are this stubborn. Keep the board in the van, and maybe check back in a few days – forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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