El Medano Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, I'm Rusty. Let's have a look at the surf outlook for El Medano.

To be straight with you, this is a tough one. We've got a 16-day window, and honestly, for the vast majority of it, things are looking pretty grim for a decent paddle. The first real glimmer of hope doesn't appear until late in the week and even then it's marginal. The swell is mostly short-period, cross-onshore junk, with a lot of moderate to fresh breezes making a mess of things. The combined wave energy is right across the board, from a very weak 63 to a more promising 449 in places, but the wind just kills it.

For the first week, it's a write-off. From Saturday the 15th through to Friday the 21st, it's all poor surf conditions. We've got a persistent onshore wind from the ENE or NE, usually between 6 mph and 19 mph, chopping up any small swell that's around. You'll see a couple of longer-period swells (15-17 seconds) trying to push in on Sunday the 16th, with the combined energy getting up to 396 in the afternoon, and the wind going glassy. That Sunday afternoon session is the best bet of the whole outlook, but even then the swell is tiny, only 2 ft from the SSW. It's a real pity because the glassy conditions would be magic. The problem is El Medano is a beach and reef setup and rarely breaks, and this is a very marginal window.

That Sunday afternoon (16th August) is the only true standout. The wind will be glassy (0 mph), the water temp is average for this time of year. You'll be looking at a clean, small wave from the SSW, but it's only a 2 ft swell with a long 16-second period. That long period (groundswell) is more suited to a point break or reef, not a beach break like this, so the shape could be a bit straight. It's worth a look if you're desperate for a slide, just don't expect much.

After that, it's back to the grind. From Monday the 17th through to the end of the outlook (Sunday 30th August), it's a long stretch of poor to marginal conditions. The swell does pick up a touch, with some 5 ft swells from the NNE and NE in the last week, but it's all choppy, lumpy, and messy with strong cross-onshore winds. The combined energy fluctuates, hitting 251 on the 29th, but the quality just isn't there. For most of this period, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, especially when the wind is a fresh to strong breeze and the swell is 4 ft or more.

In summary, if you've got an itch, the only window is Sunday afternoon the 16th. Get out early, enjoy the glass, but know it's a very long shot for a quality wave. Everything else is a no-go.

Rusty.

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