El Medano Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at the forecast for El Medano over the next couple of weeks. I gotta be straight with you – it’s a rough stretch for surf. If you’re looking to paddle out, you’re going to be waiting a long time for anything decent. The first real chance we see isn’t until the afternoon of Sunday the 13th, and even then it’s barely a whisper.

The pattern is dominated by a constant, unpleasant cross-onshore wind from the northeast and east-northeast, spiking up to 25 mph at times. That keeps the surface chopped up and messy. Most of the swell is short-period, weak stuff coming from the northeast, with combined energy readings mostly under 200 – it’s weak to moderate at best. The water temp is sitting at 76°, which is about normal for this time of year.

Now, for the one bright spot that’s barely a highlight. On Sunday afternoon, the 13th of September, the wind drops to just 3 mph from the east-northeast, turning glassy. The swell is a tiny 4 ft from the northeast, with a period of 7 seconds and combined energy of 189 (moderate). The wave comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” It’s not going to be good, but it’ll be the cleanest the water gets in the whole run. The break is a beach and reef setup, but it’s labeled “rarely breaks,” so it’s a gamble. For a beginner, it’s small enough, but you’d be fighting for a crumbly little wave.

After that, we get another glassy window on Saturday the 19th of September in the morning, with a tiny 1.0 ft from the south-southwest at a very long 18 seconds (combined energy 150 – moderate). That’s a groundswell, but it’s so small it’s barely a ripple. The direction is good for the optimum here, but the size is pitiful. Then on Sunday the 20th, the afternoon goes glassy again with a 2 ft south-southwest swell at 15 seconds (combined energy 239 – moderate). Again, it’s clean, but tiny.

Honestly, there’s no standout period here. The combined energy for most of the forecast is weak, and the wind is a constant enemy. If you’re a kite surfer, the strong cross-onshore winds over a beach and reef setup are going to be far more interesting than trying to paddle a surfboard. The long gaps between the few half-decent windows are a killer.

For a surfer, this is a long dry spell. It’s not normal for the area to be this blank for this long, but it happens. The forecasts can change, but right now, I’d leave the board at home unless you’re desperate for a glassy, ankle-high bump.

Rusty.

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