El Comedor Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s look at what’s coming down the line for our local patch.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – it’s a slow start. The first few days are looking pretty grim. The wind is blowing straight onshore from the NNE, and the swell is short-period, choppy stuff. For the first week, from the 5th through to the 12th, it’s all “poor surf conditions” with scores that don’t get off the ground. The combined energy is moderate (119 to 450), but it’s all wind-affected junk. If you’re desperate, you could paddle out, but you’ll be fighting a bumpy, messy ocean. The water temp is sitting at 76°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t freeze waiting for a clean one.

The first real glimmer of hope shows up on the morning of Sunday, 13th September. We finally get a drop in the wind, with a light breeze from the ENE, and the surf ticks up to “marginal.” The swell height is 5ft from the NNE with a period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy is a moderate 298. It’s still cross-onshore, so it’s not perfect, but at least it’s not howling. The conditions stay marginal through Monday the 14th, with a similar 5ft swell from the NNE and light cross-onshore winds. These are the best windows we’ve got in the first half of the run, but honestly, they’re only just rideable.

After that, we slide back into poor surf from the 15th to the 16th, with the wind picking up again and the swell staying messy.

Now, the standout window is looking like Thursday, 17th September through Friday, 18th September. The swell really ramps up. On the 17th, we’re seeing 7ft from the north with an 8-second period, and the combined energy jumps to a strong 640. That’s a lot of water moving. The wind is still onshore from the north, but it’s a gentle breeze, so the surface won’t be as wrecked as earlier. This is expert territory, folks – 7ft is pushing it for anyone who isn’t solid. The best of the best is the Friday morning, 18th September, with a 6ft swell from the north, 8-second period, and a combined energy of 647. It’s still onshore, but with a gentle breeze, it might clean up a bit. The period is 9 seconds by the afternoon, which gives a little more shape. This is the best on offer for the whole 16 days, but it’s still a rougher, wind-affected wave.

The crowds at El Comedor can be an issue – it’s a consistent reef break that’s often busy, and being an expert wave, it’ll draw the crew. The optimum swell direction is from the NNW, and we’re getting north and NNE, so it’s not dead perfect, but it’ll work.

The last few days, the 19th and 20th, drop off quickly. By Sunday the 20th, we’re back to 3ft and weak energy (126). It’s a long gap of poor conditions after the 18th.

So, bottom line: the first week is a write-off. The 17th and 18th of September are your best bets, but they’re for experts only, with onshore wind. If you’re a beginner, stay home. If you’re a charger, you might get a few.

Rusty.

Read more