Duds Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what we’ve got coming up for Duds Reef.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this is a tough stretch. We’re looking at a long, frustrating run of poor conditions. The first real chance of anything even close to worthwhile doesn’t pop up until Monday the 10th of August, and even then it’s just marginal. Before that, from now through Sunday the 9th, it’s all cross-shore winds with lumpy, messy surf. We’re talking small, weak energy with a combined energy reading of only 493, and that’s with a long period swell of 18 seconds that just gets chopped up by the wind. Not worth paddling out.

That Monday morning the 10th sees a little bump in size to 5ft, but it’s short period windswell at 7 seconds and still cross-shore. The energy picks up to 677, but it’s just not clean. The afternoon drops right back down.

We get a bit of a pulse mid-week. Wednesday the 12th and Thursday the 13th see some better swell energy moving in from the south, with the combined energy jumping into the four-digit range – 1050 on Wednesday morning and up to 1186 on Thursday morning. Swell heights around 3ft to 5ft, with a long period of 18 seconds on Wednesday and 16 seconds on Thursday, suggesting some real groundswell. But here’s the kicker – it’s still cross-shore wind from the ENE, blowing 18 to 22 mph. That’s gonna keep things lumpy and choppy. The forecast calls it marginal, but honestly, with that wind, it’s a tough call. The water temp is 81°, which is about average for this time of year.

Things go downhill fast after that. Friday the 14th and Saturday the 15th get big – like, 8ft to 16ft big, and then a whopping 23ft on Saturday afternoon – but the wind is howling. We’re talking 28 mph cross-shore winds creating a messy, dangerous mess. The combined energy on Saturday afternoon hits a massive 14540, but with that wind and that size, it’s strictly for the kamikaze crew or maybe the kite surfers. This is not a paddle situation.

The following week is more of the same: persistent cross-shore winds, lumpy conditions, and poor surf quality. There’s a flicker of hope on Thursday the 20th of August. The wind drops right back to a light breeze, only 3 mph from the east, and the swell is 6ft with an 8-second period. The combined energy is 965, and the forecast gives it a 2 out of 10 – the highest score in the whole outlook. That light wind will make for the cleanest conditions we’ve seen in weeks, but the swell is short period and cross-shore, so it’s still just marginal.

So, if I had to pick one standout, it would be that Thursday afternoon the 20th of August. The wind will be almost glassy, and the waves will have some push. It’s not going to be perfect, but it’s the best we’re going to get. After that, it’s back to the same old story: cross-shore wind and lumpy surf right through to the end of the outlook on the 23rd.

It’s a bleak run, folks. Sometimes it just doesn’t line up.

Rusty.

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