Duds Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight up – Duds Reef is living up to its name through this whole 16-day stretch. There’s nothing I’d call a proper surf session anywhere in the window. The reef is exposed and the swell direction is mostly off, the wind is locked in cross-shore almost every day, and the water temp is a balmy 79.7°F with a normal anomaly (0.5°F), so at least it’s warm, but that doesn’t help the waves.

We start Friday 17 July with a tiny 2.3ft SSW groundswell, period 16 seconds, but the wind is a 15.5 mph cross-shore from the east – complete chop. Combined energy is moderate (382). No good. That pattern sticks through Saturday and Sunday: 5.2ft and 4.6ft from the east, period 7–8 seconds, but those east winds are 18.6–21.7 mph, cross-shore, lumpy. Energy picks up a bit (440–515) but still poor.

Monday 20 July morning shows a small 2.0ft S swell with a long 16-second period, cross-shore 15.5 mph, and the combined energy jumps to 521 – still marginal at best. The comment says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” That’s the best we get for days. Through Tuesday and Wednesday (21–22 July) the swell stays under 3.3ft, long period (14–24 seconds), but cross-shore winds keep it messy. Energy climbs to 940 on the 22nd morning, but it’s still poor.

Thursday 23 July afternoon sees a 2.6ft SSW swell, 20-second period, combined energy 1276 – that’s moderate-strong energy, but the wind is 18.6 mph cross-shore, so it’s lumpy. Still only marginal. Friday 24 and Saturday 25 July similar: 2.3–3.3ft SSW, 17–20 seconds, energy 1103–1237, but again cross-shore winds 21.7 mph. No offshore, no glass.

Now Sunday 26 July we start to see a bit more size: 3.6–3.9ft from the east, 17 seconds, energy 1674–1805 – strong energy, but wind is still 18.6 mph cross-shore, so it’s lumpy. Marginal. Monday 27 July pushes up to 4.9ft morning, 6.2ft afternoon – east swell, 16 seconds, energy 1741–2338 – the most energy we’ll see. But afternoon wind is 18.6 mph cross-shore, and the morning breeze is 15.5 mph. Still cross-shore chop. The height is pushing over 5ft, so it’s not for beginners, but with that wind it’s a messy challenge.

The closest we get to a window is Tuesday 28 July morning: 6.6ft east swell, 15-second period, and the wind drops to a light 6.2 mph cross-shore – that’s the only time we see “light breeze” and “light cross-shore with small crossing wind ripples.” Combined energy is 1893 – strong. The score is a 3, which is the highest in the whole forecast. The swell is 6.6ft, so that’s only for experienced surfers, and it’s a reef break, so the long period (15s) might make it a bit fat and straight, but at least the wind is light. That’s your best chance, but it’s still a marginal call. Afternoon gets back to 12.4 mph cross-shore.

Wednesday 29 July drops to 4.9ft, period 12s, energy 944, wind 12.4 mph cross-shore. Thursday 30 July morning has 3.9ft ENE, 11 seconds, light breeze 6.2 mph cross-shore – again, a possible window but still “marginal.” Energy 716. Then Friday 31 July and Saturday 1 August we’re back to

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