Duds Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s cast an eye over the 16 days ahead. To be straight with you, it’s a bit of a slow burn here, and the first real chance of anything decent doesn’t pop up until well into the second week. For the opening run, we’re looking at a lot of grotty cross-shore winds and poor surf conditions, with a couple of windows of marginal stuff that are best skipped.

Things look pretty bleak right through from Sunday the 9th through to Thursday the 14th. That’s nearly a full week of moderate to fresh cross-shore winds mucking up a small, short-period swell. The wave energy is moderate, getting up around the 500 to 600 mark, but with that 15 to 19 mph breeze from the ENE, it’s all chop and no hope. There’s a small window on the morning of Monday the 10th with a 2ft swell, but with a 15-second period and cross-shore wind, it’s not making the most of that long-period groundswell. Best to leave the board on the sand for those days.

Now, come Saturday the 15th, things start to change. The swell builds in from the east. Through the morning we’re looking at a 7ft swell from the east with a moderate 12-second period, and the wind is starting to swing cross-offshore from the NE at 19 mph. That’s a step up, but the real standout window lands on Sunday the 16th and into Monday the 17th.

Duds Reef is the spot to keep in mind. On Sunday morning the 16th, the wind drops right out to a glassy 3 mph from the north. That’s a game-changer. The swell is pumping at a solid 12ft from the ENE, with a 13-second period. That’s a proper groundswell with plenty of power — the combined energy is over 4000, which is strong. This is going to be a serious, clean, powerful reef break. The water temperature is about 81°F, which is bang on normal for this time of year. Because it’s a reef, that long-period swell will line up nicely, but an 12ft wave is only for experienced surfers. The afternoon holds similar conditions, though there’s a risk of thunderstorms, so keep an eye on the sky. The crowds at Duds Reef can show up sometimes, so on a day this good, expect a few others in the water.

After that, it looks like the swell fades back down again through Monday the 17th and into the rest of the week, with winds shifting around and the quality dropping back to poor or marginal at best.

So, if you’ve got the skill and you’re keen, keep the weekend of the 15th and 16th marked. Sunday the 16th is the absolute pick. Glassy conditions, big swell from the east, and Duds Reef doing what it does best. It’s a promising outlook for a few hours of clean, chunky reef waves for the crew who can handle it. For anyone else, it’s a waiting game until the next proper pulse, which isn’t showing yet.

- Rusty

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