Duds Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for any proper paddle surfing at Duds Reef. We’ve got a long stretch of onshore and cross-shore winds muscling up the water, and the swell just isn’t lining up right. Basically, it’s a waiting game, and the forecast is pretty clear that patience is the name of it.

The first real chance of anything even remotely worth getting wet for doesn’t show up until Thursday, August 20th. Even then, it’s just a marginal call—swell around 2ft from the SW with a long 17-18 second period, but the wind is still coming from the ESE, pushing a light cross-onshore chop. The wave energy is weak, with the combined energy reading just 397 in the morning. It’s not going to be pretty, but it’s the first sign of life. That marginal, small stuff lingers through Friday the 21st, but honestly, the conditions are so poor that you’d be better off finding something else to do.

After that, things really flatline. From Saturday the 22nd through to Monday the 24th, the swell drops right off, the wind stays up in the 15-30 km/h range from the E and ENE, and the waves are just messy, cross-shore slop. The energy readings are in the low hundreds—like 315 to 527—which tells you there’s nothing behind it. The period is all over the place too, which just adds to the confusion. It’s a dead zone, folks.

We get a bit of a tease right at the very end of the month, though. On Saturday the 29th, things get significantly bigger—we’re looking at a solid 10ft of east swell with a 9-second period in the morning, and the combined energy jumps all the way up to 1772. That is a serious amount of juice, no two ways about it. But here’s the catch: it’s still cross-shore ENE wind at 35 km/h, which is going to make it an absolute washing machine out there. You’d have to be a proper expert to even think about it, and even then, it’s more likely to be a session for the kite surfers than anyone on a paddleboard. The quality is still rated poor, and the energy is just wind-driven chop. It’s a big, powerful, and messy close-out.

So, the honest summary is this: there’s no standout swell in this whole 16-day window. The best of a bad bunch is that small, long-period SW groundswell on the 20th and 21st, but it’s tiny and the wind is just wrong. The bigger east swell at the end of the month is only for the brave, and by the looks of it, the kites will be having more fun. Keep the board in the car, but don’t hold your breath.

Rusty

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