Duds Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty here, and I’ve got to be straight with you – this forecast for Duds Reef is a tough one to swallow. We’re looking out over the next couple of weeks, and honestly, the surf quality is pretty grim for most of it.

For the first stretch, from Thursday the 9th right through to the middle of the following week, it’s just constant cross-shore winds from the ENE, blowing at 18 to 22 mph. That’s creating a lumpy, messy cross-chop on the surface, making it nearly impossible to find a clean face. Even though the swell is coming in at times between 5 ft and 5 ft from the ENE, the period is short, around 7 to 8 seconds, so it’s weak and crumbly. The combined swell energy is moderate, but it’s all junk. It’s a no-go for paddling. Honestly, with this wind and the beach-and-reef setup here, this looks more like a kite-surfing breeze than anything for a surfboard.

A little glimmer shows up around Saturday the 11th afternoon when a new, longer-period swell from the SW at 18 seconds pushes through. The wave height drops to just 2 ft, but the energy jumps. Still, that fresh cross-shore wind ruins it. This pattern of a long-period groundswell from the SSW and SW, with periods of 14 to 18 seconds, continues for a few days. The swell height hangs around 3 ft to 3 ft. That long period means the waves will have good shape and some grunt, but the wind never lets up – still that annoying 18–22 mph cross-shore. It’s frustrating because there’s energy there, but the conditions are just unsurfable.

We hit a brief period on Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st where the forecast ticks up. The swell height picks up to about 3 ft to 4 ft from the E with a period of 16–17 seconds. The combined swell energy is strong. The wind eases slightly to 15–18 mph from the E, but it’s still cross-shore. The notes say it’s marginal. This is the best of a bad bunch, but it’s still not what you’d call a standout session. It’s just a *maybe* if you’re desperate.

After that, from Wednesday the 22nd onward, it’s back to poor surf with fresh to strong cross-shore winds and the swell fading to 2 ft to 3 ft. Nothing to get excited about.

Look, the only real standout window, and I use that term loosely, is the Sunday the 12th to Monday the 13th period. The swell direction from the SSW (which is the optimum direction for this break) combined with that very long 16 to 18-second period is the best recipe for shape. The waves might be small at 3 ft, but that long period will push through with some real push. If you *had* to pick a time, it’s those mornings, but that damn cross-wind will have the surface chopped up. There’s no true “clean” session in the whole 16 days. It’s a tough stretch.

Rusty, signing off.

Read more