Duds Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at what’s on the table for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – it’s not looking like a classic stretch for Duds Reef. The whole 16-day forecast is a bit of a mixed bag, with more “poor” calls than I’d like to see. There’s a big gap right at the start where there’s just no surf worth paddling out for from Monday afternoon right through the next few days. The first real chance you’ve got to wet a line is actually a marginal one, but we’ll get to that.

Let’s talk about the water first. For your first chance at a wave, the water temp is sitting at about 80.9°F, which is bang on average for this time of year. No surprises there, just that familiar warm bath feeling.

So, here’s the pattern. The first recommendation pops up on Monday afternoon, August 17th, but it’s a tough one. We’ve got a modest 2.9ft swell from the south with a 14-second period. That’s a long-period groundswell, which usually means better-shaped, more powerful waves, but it can also make the reef set-up a bit tricky if it’s too straight. The wind is a cross-shore from the ENE at 25 km/h (15.5 mph), so it’s going to be bumpy. The combined energy is moderate at 604, but the quality call is marginal. Honestly, this one’s a pass unless you’re really desperate for a paddle.

Tuesday morning the 18th is a flat-out “poor” rating, with the swell dropping to 2.6ft. The period is still decent at 13 seconds, but that cross-shore wind is back and stronger at 25 km/h (15.5 mph), making it a choppy mess. The afternoon gets even smaller at 1.3ft, and even though the period jumps to 18 seconds (very long period), the wind is the same story. It’s just not happening.

Wednesday the 19th is more of the same. Morning and afternoon both show a tiny 1.6ft swell from the southwest with a 16-second period. The wind eases a bit to a gentle cross-shore from the east at 15 km/h (9.3 mph), but the surf quality is still rated poor, with a marginal nod for the afternoon. The energy is still weak to moderate (306 and 280). I wouldn’t bother.

Thursday the 20th finally sees a slight uptick. The swell builds to 2.3ft from the southwest, still with a long 18-second period in the morning. The wind swings to a light cross-on from the east at 10 km/h (6 mph), which is a bit better. Energy is moderate (413 and 398). It’s still only a “marginal” call, but it’s the most promising window in the first week, though that’s not saying much. The afternoon wind drops to near glass (S, 5 km/h or 3 mph), which is a major positive for a clean surface. This is the best you’re going to get early on.

Friday the 21st, the swell holds at 2.6ft, but the conditions are poor again. The wind is cross-onshore or onshore, and the quality is shot. Saturday the 22nd is no better, with a fresh cross-shore wind picking up to 30 km/h (18.6 mph) in the afternoon making for lumpy junk.

Now, towards the end of the month, things get bigger, but not better. From Sunday, August 23rd, through the end of August and into September, the swell jumps up into the 4.9ft to 9.8ft range. The problem is the wind stays a strong cross-shore (ENE at 30-40 km/h or 18.6-24.8 mph) for most of it. The swell period is short, around 7 to 9 seconds, which is just windswell – messy, weak, and fat.

By Wednesday, August 26th, the swell hits 7.2ft from the east with a period of 8 seconds. The combined energy rockets up to 1026, which is strong, but the wind is a moderate cross-shore at 25 km/h (15.5 mph), and the quality is still only marginal. It’s big enough for experienced surfers only (over 8.2ft by the 28th), but with that onshore chop, it’s going to be a washing machine. For the week leading up to the 28th, you’re looking at swell heights of 8.2ft to 9.8ft and energy levels over 1400, but with poor to marginal conditions. This is more of a kitesurfing scene than a paddle-surfing dream.

The last few days into early September drop back down to small, weak swell with strong winds. The pattern is clear: the first week is tiny and bumpy, the second week is powerful but blown out.

So, if I have to pick a standout – and it’s a stretch – it’s Thursday, August 20th afternoon. The swell is small at

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