Duds Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this is a grim outlook for Duds Reef. For 16 days, the surf is either poor or marginal, with hardly a session worth paddling out for. The water temperature is sitting at 81°F, which is about normal for this time of year—no drama there, but it’s small comfort.

The first real sniff of a wave comes Monday 10 August, but it’s not worth your time. You’ve got a tiny 2ft swell from the SSW, period at 15 seconds—that’s a long period groundswell, which can mean nice shape at a reef, but the energy is weak (389) and the wind is a moderate cross-shore at 16 mph. Surf reports call it poor surf conditions, and I’d agree—don’t bother.

Tuesday 11 August is more of the same: 2ft swell, 14-second period, still that ENE cross-wind at 16 mph. Energy nudges up to 406, but it’s still poor. The lumpy cross-chop will ruin anything that tries to form.

Wednesday 12 August sees a bump up to 3ft from the S, period jumping to 18 seconds—that’s a very long period groundswell. Energy hits moderate territory (1022), but the cross-wind at 16 mph and the marginal surf forecast mean it’s just messy. The long period might offer some better shaped waves at this reef, but with that wind, you’ll be fighting a cross-chop all day.

Thursday 13 August morning offers the best of a bad run: 5ft from the S, 16-second period, strong wave energy (1125). But wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-shore, creating a lumpy cross-chop. Still only marginal surf. Afternoon gets worse—wind jumps to 22 mph and conditions drop back to poor.

Friday 14 August is poor surf across the board, with 4ft and fresh cross-winds.

Now, Saturday 15 August is the standout—if you can call it that. Morning brings 7ft from the E, period at 10 seconds, with cross-offshore wind from the NE at 22 mph. That’s a clean session, but the swell size is getting up there—over 7ft, so it’s pushing into expert territory. Energy is strong (1246). Afternoon sees 8ft from the E, period 12 seconds, wind still cross-off at 19 mph. There’s a risk of thunderstorms, but the surf is clean. The swell direction is from the east, which is not the optimum SSE direction for this break, so it might not line up perfectly. Still, this is the best on offer in the whole 16 days—marginal but clean and pumping.

Sunday 16 August is a write-off: 12ft to 18ft from the ENE, but the wind is onshore from the SSE, blowing strong at 25 mph. That swell is too big for anyone but hardcore experts, and with onshore wind, it’ll be a washing machine.

From Monday 17 August right through to Tuesday 25 August, it’s back to small, poor surf—1ft to 4ft, cross-winds, and lumpy conditions. The only thing worth noting is Tuesday 25 August afternoon shows a brief bump to 4ft from the S with 18-second period and moderate energy (1509), but again, cross-wind and lumpy.

Bottom line: there’s a big gap of no good surf from Monday 10 to Friday 14, then a marginal but clean window on Saturday 15 August. After that, another long stretch of poor conditions until the end of the period. If you’re a kite surfer, those strong cross-winds and smaller days might suit you, but for paddle surfing, Duds Reef is struggling.

Rusty.

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