Duds Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Duds Reef over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, I’m looking at this 16-day stretch and I’m struggling to find a session that gets the blood pumping. The whole block is a bit of a write-off for quality waves. The winds are a constant problem – relentless cross-shore and cross-onshore breezes, mostly from the ENE, that are going to keep things lumpy and chopped. The water is sitting at 80°, which is pretty average for this time of year, nothing unusual there.

The combined swell energy is mostly moderate, with values like (402) and (304) early on, but the surf quality is consistently rated as poor. The swell direction is coming from the SSW, which is not the optimum SSE direction for this spot. Periods are a mixed bag, but mostly around 13-14 seconds, which is okay for a groundswell, but with that wind, it’s just messy.

The first few days, from the 14th to the 18th of July, are a total no-go. Swell is tiny, around 3ft to 3ft, and the wind is ruining any chance of a clean face. On the 19th, we get a bit more swell at 4ft, but it’s from the east with a short, weak period of 8 seconds, and the wind is still howling cross-shore. Not worth the paddle out.

There’s a slight uptick from the 20th onwards. The swell energy climbs into the strong range, hitting (636) on the afternoon of the 20th and peaking at (815) on the 22nd, with a proper long-period groundswell from the S (16 seconds) on the 20th. It’s a bigger swell, around 3ft, but the wind never lets up. We’re still stuck with a moderate to fresh cross-shore every single day. The forecast edges up to “marginal” on a few morning sessions, like the 20th, 21st, and 27th, but it’s still a gamble. The long period on the 20th (16 seconds) would be better for a point or reef, but the cross-wind will chop it up.

The last week of July gets a bit more energy, with the 26th showing a strong 3ft S swell and a combined energy of (1072), but again, it’s let down by the wind. The 23rd has a very long period of 20 seconds from the SSW, but the swell is tiny at 2ft, and the wind is a fresh cross-shore. That’s a classic case of a big, long-period swell that’s going to be too straight and gutless for this beach setup, especially with that wind.

So, the best I can say is that the mornings of the 20th, 21st, 27th, and 28th of July are the only times this spot even looks “marginal.” Big swells are coming through, but the wind is a deal-breaker. If you’re a kite surfer, this constant cross-shore might be your jam, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a tough run. Don’t hold your breath, but forecasts can change – it’s a fairly consistent break, so it won’t stay this poor forever.

Rusty.

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