Duds Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’ve got a long stretch of the 16-day outlook to get through, so let’s break it down. The only spot with any detail is Duds Reef, which is a fairly consistent reef break (exposed, with an optimum swell from the SSE). But the wind isn't cooperating, and the swell is mostly coming from the wrong direction, so it’s a rough ride ahead.

The forecast starts on Wednesday, 5th of August. Don’t get your hopes up. We’re looking at a weak 3 ft swell from the ENE with a short period of 10 seconds, and the combined energy is only 292. That’s weak energy, and the cross-shore wind is a moderate 12 mph. It’s messy, with a cross-chop.

Thursday the 6th drops right off – we’re down to 1 ft from the SSW, with a long period of 14 seconds. The energy is 184, still weak. The wind is lighter but still cross. It’s not doing anything for us.

Friday the 7th and Saturday the 8th are more of the same – small, weak, and cross-shore winds. The swell is tiny, 1 ft to 2 ft, with moderate to fresh breezes in the 15-19 mph range. The period is long on the 7th, but the swell is just too small to matter. The energy stays under 600.

Sunday the 9th sees a pulse of 5 ft from the ENE, but the period is a poor 7 seconds. That’s short-period windswell, not the good stuff. The wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-shore, and the lumpy cross-chop is going to make it a real battle. The energy is moderate (536-582). This is not a surf day.

Monday the 10th and Tuesday the 11th – the swell gets mixed up, with some longer period SSW swell (15 seconds) at 2 ft to 3 ft, but the wind stays strong (15-19 mph cross-shore). The energy is moderate (442-538). The bumps will be relentless.

Now, Wednesday the 12th of August, things start to look a bit more interesting for the brave. The swell picks up to 3 ft from the S, with a solid 18-second period. The combined energy jumps to 963 (moderate). The wind is a fresh 22 mph cross-shore, but that long period gives it some push. The Thursday afternoon and Friday the 13th-14th keep the S swell around 3 ft to 4 ft, with periods of 15-18 seconds, but the wind is still 22 mph cross-shore. The energy is strong here (1052 on Thursday morning). Despite the strong wind, the long period might make the paddling easier, but the chop will be messy.

The real standouts, if you can call them that, come later. Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th of August see the swell building to 6 ft to 6 ft from the E, but the period drops to 8 seconds. That’s short period and the wind is a strong 22-25 mph cross-shore. The energy is strong (557-667). This is looking more like a kite-surfing session than a paddle-surfing one. The waves will be fat and choppy.

Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th of August, the swell pushes up to 7 ft to 8 ft from the ENE/E, with a period of 9 seconds. The combined energy is very strong (1102-1112). The wind is still a fresh 22 mph cross-shore. This is now in the expert-only zone (over 8 ft on the 18th afternoon). The waves will be big, but messy and powerful.

Wednesday the 19th of August keeps the 7 ft from the ENE, period 9 seconds, energy 1106-1237. The wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-shore. Still big and lumpy.

Finally, Thursday the 20th of August, the last day in the window, we see a drop back to 3 ft from the SW, with a long 18-second period. The wind eases to a gentle 9 mph cross-shore. The energy is still very strong at 1209, but the swell is small. The score is a 3/10, the best of the bunch. This is the only day that’s even close to decent, with clean-ish conditions possible due to the lighter wind. But it’s a long way off.

The best of the lot is Thursday the 20th of August at Duds Reef. The long period SW swell (3 ft, 18 seconds) will have some push, and the gentle cross-shore wind (9 mph) might just give you a window of clean-ish waves. The combined energy is 1209, which is strong. It’s not a classic, but it’s the only one worth a look.

All in all, the first week is a write-off. The second week has some size, but the wind is a constant problem. The setup is more for the kite crowd than for us paddle surfers. Keep an eye on that Thursday the 20th, but don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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