Bay of Plenty Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the Bay of Plenty. There’s a lot of swell on the way, but most of it’s gonna be too big for this spot, which is a shame. The window of clean, rideable surf is pretty narrow, so get in quick when it’s good.

The best bet on the whole horizon is Wednesday, 12 August. The swell is pumping in from the south at a solid 15 ft, with a super long period of 17 seconds – that’s groundswell with bags of energy (combined energy of 10899). The wind is glassy from the east, so it’ll be dead smooth. This is really only for experienced surfers, though. The swell direction from the south-east matches the optimum. Bay of Plenty (beach/jetty) is beginner-friendly normally, but 15 ft is expert territory only. Water temp is 72°, which is about normal for this time of year with a slight 0.7° anomaly.

Leading up to that, Sunday afternoon (2 August) has a big 10 ft swell from the south-east, period 12 seconds, and cross winds from the SSW at 25 km/h. The combined energy is strong at 2406, but it’s too big for this break and the wind will put a cross-chop on it. Not worth it.

Monday morning (3 August) drops to 7 ft from the south-east, but the wind is cross-on and light – still just marginal. Monday afternoon shrinks to 6 ft, onshore, no good.

Tuesday (4 August) is a write-off: 5 ft and 5 ft, both cross-on, choppy. Poor.

Then Wednesday morning (5 August) is a little gem: 3 ft from the east-south-east, period 10 seconds, and glassy wind. The combined energy is low at 228, but it’ll be clean and small. A good one for beginners. The swell is a bit short period, but with glassy conditions, it’s a nice little window. Crowds are sometimes a thing here, so you might have company.

After that, it’s a long stretch of poor surf from Thursday 6 August right through to Sunday 9 August – swell drops below 3 ft, winds are messy, rain showers, and the combined energy is weak. Monday 10 August is windy and messy, with a 6 ft short-period swell that’s only good for kite surfing, not paddling.

On Tuesday 11 August, there’s a 12 ft swell from the south, period 13 seconds, with gentle cross-on wind – but it’s flagged as too big for the break, and the combined energy is 4589. Same story for Wednesday 12 August and Thursday 13 August. The standout is Wednesday 12 August as mentioned.

Friday 14 August has a 7 ft south swell, period 12 seconds, but cross-on wind. Marginal. Saturday 15 August morning is interesting: 6 ft from the north-east, period only 7 seconds, but glassy calm winds. The combined energy is 845. It’s a short-period swell, but glassy conditions make it look clean. Sunday 16 August and Monday 17 August are back to poor conditions.

So, overall, the best is Wednesday 12 August for big-wave experts, and Wednesday 5 August for a clean, small session. The rest of the 16 days is mostly a bust.

Rusty.

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