Bay of Plenty Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, looking at the Bay of Plenty for the next couple of weeks. Honestly, it’s a pretty grim outlook for a paddle. There’s no real surf to get excited about at the start, and the whole 16-day window is a struggle. We’ve got a solid stretch of poor conditions right through the first week, and while the second week shows a bit more size, the wind is just never on our side.

The first real pulse of energy that’s worth a mention arrives on the morning of Saturday the 15th of August. Overnight, a solid 8ft easterly groundswell (combined energy 1712) with a very long period of 12 seconds rolls in. That’s a lot of water moving, and for a beginner-friendly beach/jetty setup like the Bay of Plenty, that’s serious, expert-only territory. The size alone is a handful, and that long-period groundswell can make things pretty straight and fat on a beach break. It’s a real shame that the wind is a light cross-onshore breeze, which will keep the surface bumpy. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

That swell hangs around into the afternoon, still a solid 8ft from the east at 11 seconds (combined energy 1401), but the wind picks up to a gentle cross-onshore, making it even choppier. It’s powerful, but it’s not clean. There’s a smaller, more manageable pulse of 5ft from the east (combined energy 598) on the morning of Friday the 14th, but it’s still a light cross-onshore, so you’re fighting the wind the whole time. The crowd factor is 'sometimes' at this spot, so you might have company, but the quality isn’t there to justify it.

Before that, the whole first week from the 7th to the 14th is a write-off for a decent paddle. The mid-week around the 10th and 11th sees some big, messy swell up to 8ft, but it’s hammered by a strong cross-shore wind, making it a total washing machine. That kind of power and wind is more interesting for a kite surfer than a surfer. The wave comment is consistently "poor surf conditions" or "marginal," and I’m not going to sugarcoat it.

The tail end of the outlook on the 22nd of August shows another burst of energy, a 7ft southerly groundswell with a very long period of 13 seconds (combined energy 1438), but again, it’s a moderate cross-shore wind. It’s a promising swell from the optimum direction, but the onshore wind kills it. For a spot that’s only fairly consistent, this is a pretty normal blank run for the area. Forecasts can change, but right now, there’s nothing to get excited about for a proper surf. Hang in there.

Rusty

Read more