Bay of Plenty Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’re looking at the Bay of Plenty for the next couple of weeks. The window kicks off with very little action, so don’t expect much straight away. The first few days are a write-off with tiny, weak swell and poor conditions. It’s not until Friday the 10th that we see some proper size, but even then it’s got a bit of a raw, messy feel. The standout period is shaping up for next Wednesday the 15th – that’s the one to circle.

These early days are a slow burn. Wednesday the 8th and the first half of Thursday the 9th are forgettable with only 1ft of weak, short-period swell and cross-shore winds making a mess of things. The combined wave energy is minimal at 69 and 60, so don’t bother paddling out.

Things finally start to move on Thursday afternoon the 9th. The swell jumps to 5ft from the S with a 14-second period, giving it some proper groundswell punch and moderate energy (891). It’s still on the “marginal” side, and the cross-onshore wind is a bit of a buzzkill, but at least there’s something to look at.

Friday the 10th morning brings the first real size – 7ft from the S with a very long 15-second period and strong wave energy (2308). This is big, powerful groundswell. The offshore wind from the SE is a huge positive, keeping the surface clean. But at over 7ft, this is strictly for experienced surfers. The afternoon gets a bit lumpier as the wind swings cross-onshore, so the morning is your window if you’ve got the skills.

Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th see the swell ease back down. Sunday afternoon is a real sleeper, with glassy conditions and 3ft of clean, lined-up swell from the SSW. The energy is moderate (525), and with the wind dying off to glass, it’s a solid option for a longboard or a fun foiler.

Now, the highlight. Wednesday the 15th is pure magic. Both the morning and afternoon sessions are glassy with that steady 6ft ESE swell, running at a 10-second period. The combined energy is consistent and solid (around 590). There’s no wind, just clean, peeling waves. This is the best on offer – the kind of day you call in sick for. Expect crowds here at the Bay of Plenty beach/jetty spot, because it’s well-known for being fairly consistent and this window is primo. The water temp is about average for this time of year.

After that, things get mixed again. Thursday the 16th turns choppy, but Friday the 17th brings another surge of big groundswell – 8ft from the S with a 17-second period and very strong energy (3637). It’s powerful and clean in the morning, but again, that’s expert territory with moderate cross-shore winds.

Heading into the third week, the swell hangs around but the winds get stronger from the NE, making for lumpy, cross-shore conditions. The long-range stuff around the 21st and 22nd has size (7ft to 8ft) but the period drops and the wind turns messy. It’s big, but it’s not pretty. There’s potential, but less certainty.

So overall, the call is: wait for next Wednesday the 15th for the cleanest, most user-friendly waves. For the big stuff, Friday the 10th morning and Friday the 17th are the expert windows. The rest is a mixed bag of average conditions. Keep an eye on that Wednesday – it’s a gem.

Rusty.

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