Bay of Plenty Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's cookin' for the Bay of Plenty.

Well, to be straight up with you, this forecast is a bit of a rollercoaster, and honestly, it’s a tough one for paddle surfing. We’ve got some serious size coming through, but the wind and conditions are not playing ball most of the time. There’s a really interesting window that pops up, but you have to be ready for a big, powerful ocean.

The water temp is about average for this time of year, so nothing to worry about on that front.

Let’s start with the first worthwhile surf. On Wednesday morning, August 12th, we’ve got a solid pulse of swell from the Southeast at 10 ft. But that’s too much juice for the beach/jetty setup at Bay of Plenty. The winds are a cross-onshore at 12 mph, making it choppy. The combined swell energy is a massive 1312 (strong). Honestly, with that much power and the onshore wind, this looks more like a kite surfer's dream than a paddle surfer's. It's a pass for me.

Thursday morning, August 13th, is where it gets interesting. The wind drops to glassy out of the South at 3 mph, which is a major positive. The swell drops to a more manageable 6 ft from the ESE, with a period of 8 seconds (short period). The combined energy is still moderate at 576. That glassy morning will make for some clean faces, but the short period means it’ll be a bit crumbly and soft. It’s surfable, but not a standout.

From Thursday afternoon, August 13th, right through to Tuesday, August 26th, it’s a long, lean run. The surf is either too small, too windy, or the conditions are just plain poor. We’re looking at a gap of nearly two weeks of marginal to poor surf. The winds are mostly cross or cross-onshore, the swells are weak, and the energy readings are low, often dropping below 100 (weak) or into the low hundreds. For example, the morning of Thursday, August 22nd has a 2 ft swell from the SSW with a very long period of 16 seconds, but with a fresh 22 mph crosswind, it’s a lumpy, messy affair. Not worth it.

Now, hang on to your board. The second week throws a curveball. On Sunday morning, August 23rd, we’ve got a serious swell from the South at 12 ft! The combined energy is a monster 2299 (very strong). But, again, the wind is cross-onshore at 12 mph and it’s predicted to be too big for this break. That is an expert-only day, and even then, it’s going to be a battle.

The best of the entire 16-day window, the one true standout if the swell angles right, is Tuesday afternoon, August 25th. The wind turns offshore from the SE at 6 mph. The swell drops to 5 ft from the South, with a very long period of 14 seconds. The combined energy is still a healthy 1118 (strong). That offshore wind and that long-period groundswell will produce some long, rippable walls, but be warned: on a beach break, a period that long (over 15 seconds is very long, this is close) can make the wave pitchy and close out. For the Bay of Plenty setup, which is a beach/jetty, it might be a bit straight. It’s still the best bet by a mile.

So, to wrap it up: The best on offer is Tuesday afternoon, August 25th. Keep an eye on that Southerly groundswell with offshore winds. The rest of the window is a write-off or too dangerous.

Rusty.

Read more