Bay of Plenty Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day crew, Rusty here. Bit of a mixed bag coming up for the Bay of Plenty over the next couple of weeks. There’s a bit of a slow start, but the middle of the period brings some solid groundswell. The water temp is sitting at 73°, which is about average for this time of year.

First up, the Bay of Plenty (beach/jetty) is the only game in town according to the data. Wednesday the 8th is a write-off—tiny, weak swell energy (70) and messy cross-on winds. You won’t want to bother. Thursday the 9th starts to show some life, with the morning seeing a 2 ft S swell, but it’s still marginal and the wind is cross-shore. By Thursday afternoon, we get a jump to 5 ft from the south with a period of 14 seconds and a decent energy build (879). Wind is cross-on though, so not perfect.

Now, the standout window is around Friday the 10th and Saturday the 11th. Friday morning brings a solid 7 ft S swell with a very long period of 15 seconds—proper groundswell energy (2081), making for powerful, well-shaped waves. The wind is light and cross-on, which isn’t ideal, but that energy should push through. This is expert territory at that size, over 8 ft coming on Friday afternoon when it gets choppy. Saturday morning still holds 5 ft with a 13-second period (761 energy) and light cross-on wind, which is more manageable. Saturday afternoon sees the wind swing onshore from the east at just 3 mph, glassy conditions, but the swell drops to 5 ft. For a beach/jetty setup with that long period, the waves might break a bit straight, but the clean conditions make it a solid session for intermediate surfers.

If you’re after the absolute best of the run, I’d call out Thursday the 16th afternoon. It’s a week and a day out, so not locked in, but promising. The swell is 5 ft from the east (10-second period), energy at 397, and the wind goes glassy—SE at 3 mph. That’s the cleanest we’ll see, with good rideable waves and minimal chop. Crowds are possible here, so get in early.

For the rest, there are big gaps. Wednesday the 8th is dead, then Friday the 10th morning is the first real swell, but it’s marginal. You’ll see a run of poor conditions from Sunday the 12th afternoon right through to Wednesday the 15th, with messy wind and wind-swell. Then a glimmer on the 16th, and a powerful but windy pulse on Friday the 17th afternoon with 8 ft S swell (1079 energy) but strong cross-winds—expert only. After that, the tail end of the period into the 22nd and 23rd is mostly poor with fresh cross-shore winds.

Overall, the best call is Saturday the 11th afternoon for clean 5 ft waves, or hold out for Thursday the 16th afternoon if you want glassy conditions. Big swell Friday the 10th morning for the crew who can handle it.

Stay salty,
Rusty

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