Bay of Plenty Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, lookin’ at the Bay of Plenty forecast. The week ahead is a bit of a mixed bag, but there’s a few windows that’ll get the blood pumpin’. The water’s sittin’ right on the long-term average at 71°, so no surprises there.

We start off with a bit of a slow burner. Thursday the 16th has some waist-high easterly swell around 5ft, a 10-second period, and the energy’s already moderate at 467. The wind’s a light cross-on, so it’s not gonna be magic. Friday the 17th though, that’s where we get our first real standout. The morning session is a ripper – glassy conditions, 4ft of east swell, and the energy’s solid at 333. With the wind dead flat, it’s gonna be clean as a whistle. Perfect for the beginners too, as the size is friendly. The crowd factor is only “sometimes” here, so you might even get a few waves to yourself.

Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th are a write-off if you’re after quality. The swell gets a bit messy, and the wind goes cross-shore, with Sunday afternoon seeing a 6ft SSE swell and 12 mph of cross-wind, stirring up a chop. That’s a day you might be better off with a cold one.

Monday the 20th has a bit of size, with 6ft of SSE swell in the morning, but the wind is cross-shore and the energy is strong (1055). The moderate breeze makes it lumpy. The afternoon picks up a touch more energy (1437) and the wind backs off to a light cross-on, but it’s still only marginal.

The next real spark comes on Wednesday the 22nd morning. It’s a small one, 3ft of SE swell, but the wind is cross-offshore and light. It’s clean, and the energy is moderate (409). A sneaky little session if you’re keen.

Then we hit a quiet patch. Thursday the 23rd morning brings glassy conditions again with a 3ft SSW swell and a 14-second period, and the energy is moderate (533). The wind is dead flat, so it’s a nice little clean up. That’s a good one.

The end of the week and into the weekend sees a bit more size. Friday the 24th morning has a 5ft SSW swell with a very long 17-second period, and the energy is strong (1241). The wind is light cross-on, so it’s not perfect, but that long period will give you some proper groundswell lines. Saturday the 25th morning is another glassy morning, with a 4ft S swell and a 14-second period, energy moderate (538). Clean as.

Now, for the second week, we’re lookin’ at a proper pulse. Sunday the 26th afternoon has a solid 6ft S swell, but the period is a massive 21 seconds, and the energy is strong to very strong (3075). That’s a serious groundswell. The wind is cross-shore though, so it’ll be a bit messy. For the experts, this could be a goer, but the size is borderlin’ for the less experienced.

Monday the 27th is a write-off with fresh cross-winds and lumpy conditions. The rest of the week is a mix of light cross-on winds and marginal surf, with a few small windows. The 30th of July has a morning of 5ft S swell with a 18-second period, but the wind is cross-on. The 31st of July brings a 7ft ESE swell, but it’s a short 8-second period, which means it’s gonna be a bit of a wash. The wind is light, so it might be fun for a bit of a froth, but the period is a letdown.

Overall, the best bet is Friday the 17th morning for a clean, friendly session, and Saturday the 25th morning for another glassy, clean wave. The long-range standouts on the 26th and 30th are promising, but the wind is a gamble.

Rusty.

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