Bay of Plenty Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Look, I'll be straight with you – the Bay of Plenty is lookin' at a pretty bleak run for the next two and a half weeks. There's a big gap of nothing worthwhile at the start, and even when things start to move, the conditions are gonna be a constant fight. Let's get into it.

Right now, we're in a quiet spell. The first real chance of anything decent doesn't roll in until the morning of Monday the 13th. Before that, we've got a whole bunch of days with tiny waves, dodgy wind, or just plain poor surf – from Monday the 6th right through to Sunday the 12th, it's mostly cross-shore breezes and weak energy, so don't even bother paddling out.

Now, that Monday the 13th is where things get interesting, but it's far away so don't get your hopes up too much. The morning session is easily the standout of the whole outlook. We're talkin' a solid 6 ft groundswell from the SSW, and the wind goes glassy with a slight air, meaning it's gonna be as smooth as a mirror. The water temp is sitting at 72°, which is pretty much dead on average for this time of year, so you won't need a thick suit. That morning is your best bet, no question.

But don't get comfy because Monday afternoon the wind swings and starts messing it up. The rest of that week is just one big 'if only'. Tuesday the 14th has size – 8 ft – but it's under a strong, lumpy cross-shore wind that blows all day. That's expert territory, but with that chop, it's gonna be a battle, not a joyride. Wednesday the 15th drops a bit, still decent at 7 ft to 8 ft, but again the wind doesn't play nice. The energy is moderate to strong in that period – the combined swell energy hits about 1867 on Friday the 10th – but it's never with good wind.

By Thursday the 16th, it's all falling apart again, and from there on it's a slow fade into weak, short-period slop. A few pulses of long-period groundswell appear on the 19th and 20th, around 3 ft to 3 ft from the south, but the wind is a constant cross or cross-onshore hassle. You might see a clean wave or two, but it's not worth the drive.

So, to wrap it up: the whole 16-day window is a rough one. Your one and only true standout is the Monday 13th morning at Bay of Plenty – it's a beach and jetty setup, and it's fairly consistent, but mornings like that, with glassy conditions and a chest-high swell, don't come around often. If you can get out then, do it. The rest is just a waiting game.

Stay salty,
Rusty

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