Bay of Plenty Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you — the next couple of weeks up the Bay of Plenty (Bay of Plenty) are a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got a long stretch of nothing much to start, then a real spike of heavy south swell that’s too big for this spot, and then a little window of clean, small waves right at the end. Let’s break it down.

We kick off on Tuesday, 4th August with a small 5ft ESE swell, but it’s getting chopped up by a cross-on NE breeze at 15 km/h. The water’s sitting at 71°, about average for the time of year. Nothing to get excited about — the energy’s moderate (481) but the conditions are poor. The next few days are pretty grim. Wednesday the 5th and Thursday the 6th are all marginal, with tiny 3ft to 3ft E swell and light cross or cross-on winds. The combined energy’s weak (219 to 282). Friday morning, 7th August, we finally get a bit of glass. The wind drops to 5 km/h from the east, and it’s dead flat calm. The swell’s only 2ft from the east at 9 seconds, so it’s small, but it’s clean. The energy’s weak (170). Saturday morning, 8th August, is the same again — glassy, 2ft E swell, very weak energy (146). Those two mornings are the only time you’ll catch a surfable wave in the first week, and it’s barely surfable.

Then things get wild. On Monday, 10th August, a big S swell rolls in at 12ft with a 9-second period. The wind is offshore from the SW at 40 km/h, so it’s clean, but the energy is massive (2012). Problem is, that’s way too big for this beach/jetty setup — it’s an expert-only day. The recommendation flags it as too big. Tuesday the 11th is still massive, with 12ft SSE swell and 40 km/h SW winds, energy hitting 3911. Again, too big for most. The following days, Wednesday 12th through Friday 14th, we see the swell drop from 7ft to 4ft, with clean cross-off winds from the SW, but the energy’s still moderate to strong (507 to 1184). However, the surf quality is still rated as marginal or poor; the wind is clean but the swell’s been knocked around and the period’s only 9 seconds.

The best chance for a decent paddle comes on Friday the 14th of August, morning. The swell is 4ft from the SE, period 9 seconds, and the wind is a complete glass-off from the NW at 5 km/h. The wave comment says “expect good surf conditions.” The energy is moderate (292). That’s your standout window — clean, small, and surfable for the beginner-friendly beach. It’s not a big day, but it’s the best we’ve got. After that, Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th go back to small, weak, cross-on junk. The last few days of the forecast, from 17th to 19th August, are all poor to marginal, with tiny swell and messy cross-shore winds.

So, the honest call: there’s a long gap of nothing until the 10th, but that’s too big. The only real standout is the morning of Friday the 14th of August — glassy, clean, small waves for a quiet session. Set your alarm for that one.

Rusty.

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