Bay of Plenty Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – the Bay of Plenty is looking pretty average over the next 16 days. We’ve got a lot of marginal conditions and onshore breezes, but there are a couple of windows where it’ll clean up nicely. The water temp is sitting around 72°, which is about normal for this time of year, so no complaints there.

The first real chance for a paddle kicks off on Thursday, July 9th, but it’s nothing to write home about. Thursday morning you’re looking at a 3 ft swell from the south with a 9-second period, but the wind is a light cross-shore, and the energy is weak (275). It’s clean enough for a beginner’s session, but don’t expect much. Thursday afternoon gets a bit of a bump to 5 ft from the SSW, but that 14-second period shows it’s a groundswell, and the cross-onshore breeze makes it choppy. Skip it.

Friday, July 10th, is where we start to see some juice. The morning brings a solid 7 ft south swell with a 15-second period – that’s proper groundswell, and the energy is pumping (2055). The wind is a light cross-onshore, but it’s still clean enough for experienced surfers. This is a standout for the week, but it’s big – over 8 ft later, so leave the beginners on the beach. By afternoon, it’s still 7 ft but the wind picks up, making it choppy.

Saturday, July 11th, has a 5 ft south swell, period dropping to 13 seconds, and the energy is moderate (758). The wind is light cross-shore in the morning, so it’s rideable, but nothing special. Sunday, July 12th, is a write-off – the wind cranks up to 12 mph from the SSW, and the swell drops to 4 ft with poor conditions.

Now, Monday, July 13th, is a sneaky good one. The morning is glassy – zero wind – with a 4 ft swell from the ESE, though the period is short at 7 seconds. The energy is moderate (361), and it’ll be clean as a whistle. This is a solid pick for a fun, small-wave session. Tuesday, July 14th, is also glassy in the morning with a 4 ft SE swell, 8-second period, and moderate energy (497). Again, clean and user-friendly.

Things get messy again from Wednesday, July 15th, through the weekend. The swell sticks around 5 ft to 6 ft, but the wind is onshore or cross-shore, and the conditions are choppy. The best of this bunch is Wednesday morning with a 6 ft ESE swell and a light cross-onshore, but it’s marginal.

The biggest standout of the whole forecast is Friday, July 24th – that’s two weeks out, so treat it with a grain of salt. The afternoon shows a 6 ft ENE swell with a cross-offshore wind, which should give clean, lined-up waves. The energy is moderate (516), and the conditions are expected to be very good. That’s a dark horse worth keeping an eye on.

Overall, Monday July 13th and Tuesday July 14th mornings are your best bets for clean, glassy waves if you want a small, fun paddle. The big south swell on Friday July 10th is for the experienced crew. The rest is a bit of a slog.

Rusty.

Read more