Bay of Plenty Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's coming up for the Bay of Plenty over the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, if you're looking for a clean, glassy session, you've got to aim for Sunday morning, July 12th. It's not big, but it's the pick of the entire run. We've got a 4ft south swell rolling in with a 12-second period, so there's a bit of push behind it. The wind is glassy – light SSW at 3 mph – so the surface will be like a mirror. The combined swell energy is moderate (525). This is a beginner-friendly spot, and with that kind of clean condition, it's the standout for getting a few easy, fun ones. Water temps are sitting around 72°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year.

Now, the rest of the first week is a bit of a mixed bag. Monday, July 13th, through to Wednesday, the 15th, sees a drop in quality. The wind swings around to the northeast, which is cross-on or onshore for this beach and jetty setup, and the swell gets a bit confused and short-period. You'll see some 5ft to 6ft waves, but with that wind chop, it's going to be messy. It's surfable, but not worth getting too excited about.

Thursday morning, July 16th, is another one to watch. The wind drops right off again – glassy, with a light easterly breeze. The swell is 5ft from the east, with a 10-second period. The energy is moderate (452). Again, with the glassy conditions, this will be clean and should be a fun morning session before the wind picks up in the afternoon.

Then we hit a bit of a lull from Friday, July 17th, through the weekend. The wind picks up strong from the south-southwest, making it lumpy and choppy. The swell direction starts shifting, but the conditions are just too blown out for a good paddle.

The following week gets interesting again, but it comes with a big caveat. Saturday, July 18th, sees a significant jump in size. The morning shows 6ft from the south (13-second period) with a very strong 1411 combined energy. By the afternoon, the period stretches to 16 seconds, and the energy hits 1722. This is a serious groundswell. The issue is the wind is a bit messy, so it's marginal for quality. This is a bigger swell, over 5ft, so it's getting into the intermediate territory, not for beginners.

Sunday, July 19th, the swell is still pumping at 7ft from the south, with a 13-second period and massive energy (1747). That's getting into the expert-only zone with the size. The problem is the wind is howling from the northeast, smashing the surface. For a beach and jetty break, this is going to be a messy, lumpy beast. Honestly, with that much wind and that swell, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than a paddle session.

The last few days of the outlook, from July 20th onward, are a real mixed bag. The swell drops off, but the wind stays onshore or cross-shore. There's a window on Thursday, July 23rd, with a 3ft swell from the east-southeast, but the period is a long 13 seconds, which might be a bit too straight for this beach break. The northeast wind will be cross-shore, so it's a gamble.

Bottom line: The true standout is this Sunday morning, July 12th – glassy, clean, and fun. Next best is Thursday morning, July 16th. The big swell from the south around July 18th-19th is powerful, but it's going to be messy with the wind. If you're a confident surfer, you might find a peak, but don't expect perfection.

Rusty.

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