Bay of Plenty Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s chew the fat on what’s coming for the Bay of Plenty over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, it’s a slow start. Monday the 6th only has a dribbly 3ft swell from the SE with a short 10-second period, and a cross-on wind. The combined energy is weak (334). Not worth paddling out for. Tuesday the 7th swings around to a tiny 4ft NE windswell, period a measly 7 seconds, and still cross-shore winds. The energy is still low (270). Honestly, the first few days are a total write-off for decent surf. Wednesday the 8th is even worse, with energy dropping to 83 and 149. There’s a big gap of poor conditions until the end of the week.

Now, Thursday the 9th afternoon brings a bit of hope. A 4ft SSW swell with a long 13-second period rolls in, and the energy jumps to 591. The wind is light cross-onshore, so it’s not clean, but it’s a start. The real standout is going to be Friday the 10th – that’s the pick of the run. Morning sees a 6ft S swell with a beautiful 15-second period, and the combined energy is pumping at 1734. The wind is light cross-onshore, so it’s not perfect, but it’s close. By Friday afternoon, the swell holds at 7ft from the S, still 15 seconds, and the wind turns onshore. Still, with energy at 1749, there’s plenty of grunt. The water temp is 71°F, which is bang on average for this time of year – no surprises there.

Saturday the 11th drops off a bit, with 5ft from the S and a 13-second period, but the wind gets a bit messy. Sunday the 12th is a write-off with moderate chop. The next real window is Monday the 13th – morning has a 6ft S swell, 15 seconds, and very light cross-onshore wind. Energy is 1441, and the conditions are manageable. Monday afternoon jumps to 8ft from the S, 14 seconds, with energy at 3462 – that’s a solid groundswell. But the wind is a bit stronger cross-onshore, so it’ll be a bit lumpy. This is still a “bigger is better” option for experienced surfers, but beginners should stay out – 8ft is expert territory.

Tuesday the 14th morning has 7ft from the S (10 seconds), energy 1873, but the wind is cross-onshore. The afternoon drops to 4ft but with a 14-second period, and the wind is cross-shore, creating chop. Wednesday the 15th is a massive 10ft from the S, but with 11 seconds and energy 1982. The wind is light cross-onshore in the morning, but the swell is simply too big for this break – it’s a warning for experts only, and even then, it’s a risk.

Thursday the 16th morning is a real gem for a glassy session. The swell is a modest 4ft from the SSE, only 8 seconds, but the wind is dead glassy – that’s a rare treat. Energy is 301. It’s not a big day, but it’ll be clean as a whistle. The afternoon fades.

The second week is a bit of a mixed bag. Friday the 17th brings a 8ft SSW swell with 11 seconds and energy 1724, but the wind is moderate cross-shore, so it’s lumpy. Saturday the 18th is poor. Sunday the 19th has rain and onshore winds. Monday the 20th is a mess with strong winds. Tuesday the 21st shows a 8ft ENE swell, but only 7 seconds, energy 905, and light cross-on wind – marginal at best.

So, if you’re picking a day to make the most of it, Friday the 10th is the standout with that long-period S groundswell and decent energy. For a glassy clean-up, Thursday the 16th morning is the quiet winner. The Bay of Plenty is a beach/jetty setup, so the long-period swells on Friday and Monday might break a bit straight, but there’s enough juice to find a bank. Crowds are possible at times, especially on the better days.

Signing off, Rusty.

Read more