Bay of Plenty Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag coming up for the Bay of Plenty over the next 16 days. The window starts on Saturday the 1st of August, but it’s a slow, messy opener. The real standout action is locked in for Sunday the 2nd of August and Monday the 3rd of August, with a couple of solid pulses. After that, it gets patchy, with a big, raw swell event around the 10th and 11th that’s only for the brave. Let’s break it down.

Saturday the 1st of August is a write-off. The Bay of Plenty (Bay of Plenty) is dealing with a 7ft SE swell, but it’s a cross-shore mess with 12-16 mph winds. The combined energy is moderate (738-909), and the “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions” warning is spot on. Not worth paddling out.

Sunday the 2nd of August is where it starts to get interesting, but only for the right crew. The morning shows a 8ft SE swell with a 11-second period, cross-shore wind at 9 mph, and moderate energy (1776). It’s a bit raw. By the afternoon, the swell jumps to 10ft from SE with a 12-second period, and the energy cranks to 2115 – strong. The wind is cross-shore at 12 mph. The catch? The forecast says “the swell is predicted to be too big for this break.” Over 8ft is expert-only territory, so this is a big-boy session. The period is long enough (12 seconds) to get some proper groundswell shape, but at a beach/jetty break, it might be a bit straight. If you’re advanced, the afternoon is your best window.

Monday the 3rd of August is the true standout. The morning is a dream. The swell drops to 7ft from SE, period 10 seconds, and the wind goes glassy – just 3 mph from the SE. The combined energy is moderate (944), and the wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is clean, glassy, and manageable for a solid intermediate. The swell direction (SE) matches the optimum direction perfectly. The crowd factor is “sometimes,” so you might get a few out, but with this quality, it’s worth it. The afternoon holds a 6ft ESE swell, but the wind swings to a light cross-onshore, so it’s not as clean. Snag that morning session.

After Monday, it fades fast. Tuesday the 4th of August is marginal at best, with 5ft ESE swell and increasing cross-onshore winds. Wednesday the 5th and Thursday the 6th are poor, with tiny swell (3ft to 3ft) and messy wind. Thursday’s afternoon is a dumpster fire – 25 mph cross-shore winds and a 6ft S windswell with a short 7-second period. Nothing to chase.

Friday the 7th of August offers a brief glimmer. The morning brings a 5ft S swell with a nice 12-second period and glassy conditions (3 mph from the north). Combined energy is moderate (719), and the wave comment is “expect very good surf conditions.” It’s smaller and cleaner, but the swell direction is from the south, which is not the optimum SE. Still, a glassy morning with a long-period groundswell is a solid option for a fun session, especially if you’re after a mellower wave. The afternoon turns to junk with a 19 mph cross-shore and a 6-second windswell.

Saturday the 8th of August is a bit of a tease. The swell picks up to 7ft from the NE, period 8 seconds, but the wind is light cross-onshore in the morning. Marginal. The afternoon is cross-shore but still 7ft. The energy is moderate (800-622). Not junk, but not clean. Skip it.

Then we hit a big run of poor days from Sunday the 9th through to the end of the window. The 10th and 11th of August see a massive swell event – 10ft to 12ft from the S on the 10th, with a 13-second period and huge energy (3333 to 4565). This is very strong, and the forecast says “wind and tide favorable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break.” Over 8ft? Expert only. The 11th stays big (10ft from SSE, 12-second period, 2587 energy), but the wind is cross-onshore and pumping. After that, it’s a wall of poor conditions: big, messy, wind-blown swell that’s more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The beach/jetty setup will be a washing machine.

So, the best on offer: Monday the 3rd of August morning. That’s your glassy, clean, 7ft SE swell with the optimum direction. The second shout is Friday the 7th of August morning for a smaller, glassy, long-period groundswell session. The rest is patchy or too big. Keep an eye on the forecasts for that 10th-11th swell if you’re a charger, but otherwise, pick your windows carefully.

Rusty.

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