Bay of Plenty Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at what’s coming up for the Bay of Plenty.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the next week and a half is a bit of a struggle. We’ve got a slow start, and the best windows are scattered. The standout window looks like Thursday morning, the 16th of July, when the stars briefly align, and then we’ve got a promising, but more distant, option on Wednesday the 22nd if you’re willing to gamble on a big groundswell.

The water temp is sitting right around average for this time of year at 71°, so nothing unusual there.

Let’s break it down. Tuesday the 14th and Wednesday the 15th are write-offs. The swell is there, around 6 ft to 7 ft, but it’s coming from the east with a cross-onshore wind making everything messy and choppy. Not worth paddling out for.

Then we get our best bet. Thursday morning, the 16th of July. The wind drops out completely – glassy conditions. The swell drops to a clean 5 ft from the east, with a period of 10 seconds. The energy is moderate (560). This is your window for a clean, fun session at Bay of Plenty (beach/jetty). It’s not a massive swell, but with that glassy surface, it’ll be smooth and user-friendly for the beginner-friendly setup. Just be aware the crowds can show up sometimes. The wind picks up again in the afternoon, so make it a dawny.

After that, things get poor again. Friday through to Tuesday the 21st is small, weak, and choppy. Not worth the effort.

Now, for the more experienced crew looking for a punch, keep an eye on Wednesday the 22nd of July. We’ve got a very long-period groundswell arriving from the SSW, with a 17-second period! That’s a lot of energy (1972). The swell is 6 ft. The problem is the wind is cross-shore, so it won’t be perfect. This kind of long-period swell can be tricky on a beach break, but it’ll offer some proper grunt if you can find a bank. The wind is light though, so it might clean up in the morning. It’s a gamble, but the potential is there.

The rest of the run into the end of the month is mostly messy with onshore winds or tiny surf. Thursday the 28th has a bit of size again (7 ft) but with a fresh 19 mph wind, it’s a kite-surfing kind of day, not a paddle-surfing one.

So, to sum it up: Thursday morning the 16th is your clean, fun glass-off. Wednesday the 22nd is the one for the experienced crew chasing a serious, long-period groundswell, but keep your expectations in check with the cross-shore wind.

Rusty.

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