Bay of Plenty Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, lookin’ at the Bay of Plenty forecast. The next 16 days are a mixed bag. We’ve got a few windows of cleaner surf, but there’s a fair bit of onshore crud in between. Water temps are around 71° – pretty much spot on average for this time of year, no surprises there.

The first real standout is Thursday morning, 16 July. The Bay of Plenty is glassy, with a light easterly breeze and 2ft swell from the east at 10 seconds. The energy is moderate (556), and the clean conditions mean it’ll be a genuine option for a morning session. It’s a beach/jetty setup, fairly consistent, and being a beginner-friendly spot, it’s a good one for everyone. Keep in mind crowds can show up sometimes.

Then we get a bit of a rough patch. Thursday afternoon onwards through to Friday arvo is pretty messy with cross-shore and onshore winds building, and the swell drops. Not worth paddling out.

Now, hold onto your board – Saturday morning, 18 July, is the real prize. We’ve got a solid 2ft southerly groundswell with a very long period of 15 seconds. The energy is strong (1303), and it’s glassy. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers, but that long period means it’ll be a bit too straight for beach breaks – it’s a beach/jetty setup, so the waves might be a bit walled and quick. Still, for the confident crew, it’s the best on offer in the whole outlook. The wind is glassy, which is a huge plus. The afternoon ruins it though, with a strong onshore kick.

After that, Sunday 19 July and Monday 20 July offer marginal, average surf with cross-shore winds – not a standout, but a possible paddle if you’re desperate.

There’s a decent gap from Tuesday 21 July through to late in the week, with mostly poor conditions and small, jumbled swell. Not worth your time.

Then Wednesday morning, 22 July, brings a surprise. A 1.0ft south-southwest swell with a very long period of 16 seconds, and a light cross-offshore breeze from the northwest. The energy is moderate (770), and the conditions are clean. This is a sneaky good session for the more experienced surfer, as the long period will favour the point and reef setups rather than the beach. Crowds are sometimes an issue, but it’s a quiet morning option.

The rest of the outlook from Thursday 23 July onwards is a write-off – small, windy, and messy. The energy drops to weak levels, and the wind is all over the place. Not worth a second look.

So, for the best surf: get on Thursday 16 July morning for the clean, beginner-friendly waves, and if you’ve got the skills, Saturday 18 July morning is the big one. Wednesday 22 July morning is a sneaky backup for the experienced crew.

Stay safe, and I’ll see you in the water.

Rusty

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