Bay of Plenty Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at the surf on offer. It's gonna be a bit of a mixed bag to start, but there's definitely some magic on the horizon if you're patient.

The pattern starts off quiet with some small, wobbly waves for the first few days. Conditions are pretty marginal with onshore breezes and some rain about. Not much to write home about, but keep an eye on Sunday afternoon (July 12). We get a tiny drop of glassy conditions with a knee-high 4ft swell from the south. The combined energy is weak (372), so it's a longboard or twinny kind of wave, but it'll be clean.

Monday (July 13) is a write-off with cross-onshore winds and messy, short period swell. Tuesday (July 14) turns it around though. The morning's glassy again, with a 4ft south swell (period 9 seconds). The combined energy is moderate (462) and it's clean with absolutely no wind. It'll be small but fun for a beginner-friendly option at Bay of Plenty.

The next standout is Thursday afternoon, July 16. This is a good one. The wind goes glassy, swell bumps up to 5ft from the east with a 10-second period. Combined energy sits at a nice moderate 535. That's a solid, clean wave for the beach/jetty setup if the tide lines up. Conditions look very good.

Now, Friday July 17 is going to get blown out with strong cross-shore winds and messy chop. Not worth paddling out.

Here's the real highlight, but you gotta be ready for it. Saturday morning, July 18. The swell jumps dramatically to 10ft from the SSW with a 13-second period. The combined energy is massive, 5090. The wind is moderate cross-shore. This is a proper groundswell, long period and heaps of energy, which usually means better shaped waves but longer waits between sets. For a beach/jetty break, that long period (over 11 seconds) can make it break a bit straight, so it's really for experienced surfers only. It's a wild, powerful day. For beginners, it's way too big.

That big energy carries into the weekend, but winds are unfriendly on Sunday (July 19) and Monday (July 20). Tuesday July 22 morning is another huge day: 10ft from the NE, 8-second period. Combined energy is 1509. Wind is light cross-shore, so it might be clean enough for experts, but that short period (under 8 seconds) means it's going to be a bit crumbly and less organized.

From there, it drops off into the last week. The last day worth a mention is Friday July 24 afternoon, with a 6ft east swell, but it's cross-onshore. The long-range stuff from July 25 and 26 is small and choppy, nothing to get excited about.

So, to boil it down: the best two are Thursday afternoon, July 16, for a clean, chest-high day that suits all levels, and the massive Saturday morning, July 18, if you're an expert after a real adrenalin hit. The long-range standouts come with a pinch of salt, more than a week out, but the signals are there.

Keep it salty,
Rusty

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