Bay of Plenty Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s talk about what’s coming up for the Bay of Plenty.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this 16-day window is a real mixed bag, and honestly, a frustrating one. We’ve got some serious size coming through, but for a spot like Bay of Plenty (beach/jetty), it’s almost too much of a good thing. The water’s sitting at about 72°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

For Sunday the 2nd, we’re looking at a solid 10 ft SE groundswell rolling in with a 12-second period, packing some serious punch with a combined energy of 2385 (moderate wave energy). That’s proper size, but here’s the kicker: the cross-shore wind is cranking at 16 mph from the SSW. That combo makes it a messy, lumpy affair. If you’re a strong paddler and you don’t mind a chop, you could find some juice, but for the average surfer, it’s just too big and messy.

By Tuesday the 4th, the swell drops to a more manageable 5 ft ESE, but the wind swings NE and stays cross-on, making for a choppy surface. The energy’s down to 542 (moderate wave energy). It’s not great.

Wednesday the 5th is small, with 3 ft waves and light cross-onshore winds. Not much to write home about.

Thursday the 6th is a write-off – tiny and messy.

Now, here’s a little glimmer. On Friday morning the 7th, we get a moment of glass. The swell is tiny at 2 ft from the E, but with glassy conditions and a combined energy of only 158 (weak wave energy). It’s surfable, but only if you’re on a longboard and want total peace and quiet. Don’t expect any power.

We then go into a weekend with some windswell. Saturday the 8th morning shows 5 ft from the ENE, but the period is a short 8 seconds and the NE breeze is cross. It’s marginal at best. Sunday the 9th is a monster day on paper – 12 ft S swell with a 12-second period, energy at 3663 – but the wind is howling at 19 mph from the SW, making it a cross-off that might clean it up a bit. Even then, 12 ft at a beach/jetty is expert-only territory and frankly, dangerous for most.

Monday the 10th is the biggest of the bunch: 13 ft from the SSW, 15-second period, and a combined energy of 9685 (strong wave energy). That’s a serious groundswell. The wind is light from the NE, so it might look cleaner, but that size is purely for the elite. For 99% of us, it’s a no-go.

After that, we drop back into smaller, wind-affected junk through the middle of the month. From the 11th onward, it’s mostly poor conditions with strong winds and lumpy seas. The swell energy stays in the moderate range down to weak, and the wind never really cooperates.

So, what’s the standout? If I have to pick, Friday the 7th morning is the only time you’ll get glassy conditions, but it’s small. For sheer power, Monday the 10th morning has the biggest, longest-period swell, but you’d better be an absolute charger. There’s no middle ground here – it’s either too big and messy, or too small and windy.

Stay safe, and don’t get too attached to any one day until the forecast firms up. - Rusty

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