Bay of Plenty Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s break down the Bay of Plenty region.

First up, the next week is pretty average—nothing to write home about until a late blast of proper swell shows up in the second weekend. Water temp is 71°, right about normal for this time of year.

Sunday the 9th is a total loss. Small, weak swell with a cross-on breeze—leave the board in the car.

Monday the 10th jumps to 10ft S swell with cross-off wind in the morning, clean as. But that’s far too big for a beginner spot like Bay of Plenty. The wave energy is strong at 1571. Unless you’re a seasoned pro, give it a miss.

Tuesday the 11th brings 7ft SSE swell, still big, with clean morning faces but marginal tide conditions. Energy is still high at 1201, but it’s not coming together. Afternoon gets messy.

From Wednesday 12th through to Saturday 16th, it’s a long grind. Swell sits between 5ft and 8ft, but the wind is mostly cross-on or cross, quality poor to marginal. The small E swells on the 14th and 15th with only 8–10 second periods have no punch—combined energy is low (360–577). Not worth paddling out.

But—Sunday the 16th afternoon is the clear standout. The wind goes glassy, dead calm, and the swell is 6ft E with an 11-second period—proper groundswell. Combined energy hits 854, moderate but with glassy conditions, the beach/jetty will have some really nice, clean lines. Crowds can be an issue sometimes, but for a Sunday afternoon with perfect weather, it’ll be worth the company. That’s your best bet for the first half of the window.

The following week gets a bit rowdy. Monday 17th and Tuesday 18th are still rideable but nothing special—6ft to 5ft E swell, cross-on wind, marginal. Then Wednesday 19th and Thursday 20th are a mess with 22–25 mph SSW winds and heavy cross-chop. Avoid.

Friday the 21st afternoon sees a 10ft S swell, 8-second period, onshore east wind—too big again for this spot, and wind’s wrong. Saturday the 22nd morning is the real monster: 13ft SSW swell with a 13-second period, combined energy a huge 9025. That’s serious, heavy groundswell with cross wind from the NE at 12 mph. For a beach/jetty, it’ll be a close-out nightmare unless you’re a charger. Experts only.

Sunday 23rd and Monday 24th taper off quick—swell drops to 6ft and then 2ft, with messy cross-on wind and moderate energy (767–692). Quality is poor.

Overall: The best surf in the whole 16-day window is Sunday the 16th afternoon at Bay of Plenty—glassy conditions with a solid 6ft E groundswell, clean, and workable despite the occasional crowd. Monday the 10th morning is also an option if you’re keen on big, clean waves—but it’s over 8ft, so not for beginners. The week from Monday 17th is mostly poor, with a brief extreme swell on the 22nd that’s strictly for experts.

Rusty.

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