Arpoador Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a good hard look at what's on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

The early part of the window is actually looking pretty promising, with a solid pulse of swell hitting us from the weekend. The water is sitting at 73°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, so that's a nice bonus. The first real standout window kicks off on Saturday the 15th, with a decent combo of moderate energy (1295) and 6ft groundswell from the SSE. The wind is light and cross-off, so the faces should be pretty clean. That Saturday morning is shaping up as the pick of the early days.

The standout session, no doubt about it, is Saturday afternoon on the 15th at Arpoador. We’re looking at some solid, powerful 6ft swell rolling in from the SSE. The combined energy is really pumping at 1379, which is a strong pulse for this spot. You’ve got a light cross-off wind keeping it tidy, which will be a major positive for getting some clean, well-shaped rides. Be prepared for a crowd though, as this place can get busy when it’s on. The swell angle is a little off from Arpoador's optimum SE direction, but the size and quality more than make up for it.

Moving into Sunday the 16th, the morning looks decent with 6ft swell, but it’s a short period windswell from the East, so it won't have the same punch as the day before. It will still be surfable with the light ENE cross-off breeze. The afternoon drops off quickly though.

Monday the 17th has some fun waves early, 6ft from the East with a clean offshore wind from the NE. That’s a nice combination for a morning session before the wind shifts. The period is short again, around 8 seconds, so it’s not the most powerful, but it will be clean.

Things start to get a bit ordinary from Tuesday the 18th through the rest of that week. The swell drops and the wind becomes a bit more onshore or cross-shore, leaving us with a lot of poor-to-marginal conditions. There’s a brief improvement on Thursday the 20th with total glass, but the swell is tiny at 2ft, so really not worth the paddle.

The second week is a bit of a waiting game. There's a pulse of longer-period swell from the South showing up around Saturday the 22nd and through Sunday the 23rd, but the wind is messy, keeping the quality pretty low and marginal.

The true standout for the whole two weeks, the one to circle on your calendar, is Monday afternoon the 24th. Now this is a big call for a week and a half out, so don’t take it to the bank just yet, but there’s a monster building on the charts. We’re looking at a serious 6ft swell from the South with a very long period of 16 seconds. The combined energy is absolutely massive at 2307. This is proper groundswell with a huge amount of juice. The downside is the cross-onshore wind from the SSE, which will chop it up. At that size, it's really only for the experienced crew, and the onshore wind could make it a bit of a battle. It’s the most powerful wave of the period.

Following that, Tuesday the 25th looks like a great option for the intermediate crowd. Still plenty of size at 6ft from the South, but the wind swings to a light cross-off from the East, cleaning it right up. That morning session on the 25th is a much more user-friendly alternative to the heavy, choppy Monday afternoon.

The final few days, the swell tails off quickly, dropping to knee-to-waist high mush by the end of the month.

So, to sum it up: The best combo of clean conditions and proper swell is Saturday the 15th. For the biggest, most powerful waves of the window, keep an eye on Monday the 24th if you’ve got the skills. But for the best all-round session with decent power and clean faces, Tuesday the 25th morning is your safest bet.

Rusty.

Read more