Surf Forecasts:
Arpoador surf forecast from 16 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 16 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 11s period, SE swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 17 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 11s period, SE swell with 453 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 12PM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 11s period with SE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Arpoador this week:
The surf forecast for Arpoador over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 12PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.2m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 13s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Arpoador in the next 16 days are 1.4m 11s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 6s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 16) at 12PM.
| Wave Type | Time (-03) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 4ft (1.2m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 9PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 11s |
| Most Powerful | 12AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 11s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Arpoador over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s talk about what’s happening in the water. We’re looking at Arpoador, and it’s a tale of two weeks. The first week is mostly a dud, but the second week has some serious firepower if you’re willing to wait.
The water temp is a pleasant 72°, which is totally normal for this time of year. No surprises there.
The absolute best session is the morning of Thursday, July 31st. There’s a 6ft south swell with a very long 12-second period, and the energy is a hefty 912. The kicker? It’s glassy. A light north-north-east breeze with barely a ripple. It’s going to be clean, powerful, and lined up. This is a proper swell, so it’s for the experienced surfers only. Arpoador is a consistent spot, and it does get crowded often, but for a morning like this, you’ll be sharing the stoke.
Before that, you’ve got to be patient. The first decent window is Thursday morning, July 16th. You’ve got a 4ft south-east swell with a 10-second period and a combined energy of 363. A light north offshore wind is blowing, so it’ll be clean. It’s a good size for beginners, and it’s the only real option in that first week. The afternoon turns a bit cross-shore, so it’s less ideal.
From Friday, July 17th, all the way through the following week, it’s flat and small. The waves are tiny, the energy is weak, and the winds are mostly cross-shore or onshore. It’s a write-off.
Then it flips. The morning of Sunday, July 26th, a solid south swell arrives at 5ft with a very long 13-second period. The energy is huge at 1119. With a light east cross-offshore breeze, it’s clean. There’s rain showers forecast, but that’s a small price to pay for waves that good. It’s a powerful groundswell, so it’ll be for the better surfers.
The next morning, Monday, July 27th, is still decent with a 5ft south-south-east swell, but the wind is stronger at 16 mph, so it’s not as clean.
And then the real prize is that Thursday, July 31st morning. Again, 6ft of south swell, 12-second period, 912 energy, and glassy. It’s perfect. The afternoon is just as good with 6ft, the same energy, and a light offshore north-north-east breeze. That’s the one to get excited about.
So, sit tight through the flat spell. The second week has got the real quality.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Warm (max 26°C on Sat morning, min 17°C on Thu morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 30°C on Tue morning, min 21°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 10 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SE 11 | E 7 | SE 10 | E 7 | E 8 | ESE 8 | E 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | E 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 355 | 286 | 453 | 163 | 115 | 199 | 77 | 104 | 367 | 93 | 167 | 110 | 51 | 137 | 66 | 45 | 34 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 21 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | off | cross | off | off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross | cross |
High Tide | 4:34PM1.19m | 4:04AM1.23m | 5:03PM1.13m | 4:38AM1.21m | 5:38PM1.07m | 5:21AM1.16m | 6:19PM1.00m | 6:19AM1.08m | 6:57PM0.94m | 7:14AM0.99m | 7:31PM0.89m | 8:04AM0.90m | 8:08PM0.83m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 10:39AM-0.01m | 11:06PM0.53m | 11:20AM0.09m | 11:48PM0.57m | 12:15PM0.21m | 00:39AM0.57m | 1:05PM0.33m | 1:19AM0.55m | 1:46PM0.44m | 1:53AM0.52m | 2:27PM0.54m | 2:38AM0.50m | 4:37PM0.59m | ||||||||
 | |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — |
 | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 22 | 23 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 23 | 26 | 26 | 24 | 27 | 28 | 25 | 28 | 28 | 25 | 30 | 30 | 26 | 31 | 28 | 28 |
Feels °C | 21 | 21 | 19 | 22 | 23 | 21 | 25 | 24 | 22 | 26 | 27 | 24 | 28 | 27 | 24 | 29 | 29 | 24 | 30 | 27 | 26 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 10 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SE 11 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 |
| kJ | 355 | 286 | 453 | 163 | 115 | 84 | 40 | 29 | 123 | 93 | 52 | 110 | 51 | 33 | 66 | 45 | 34 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 21 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 14 | S 13 | SE 11 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | SE 10 | SE 10 | SE 10 | S 18 | S 16 | S 15 | S 13 | S 13 | S 12 | S 13 | S 12 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 | S 10 | S 9 |
| kJ | 4 | 4 | 249 | 35 | 26 | 82 | 77 | 45 | 25 | 20 | 17 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 14 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 14 | S 13 | S 13 | S 12 | S 19 | S 18 | S 16 | S 15 | S 14 | S 13 | S 12 | — | S 16 | S 15 | — | — | S 15 | S 13 | S 12 | S 14 | S 14 |
| kJ | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 20 | 17 | 15 | 3 | 3 | — | 5 | 4 | — | — | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 6 | E 6 | E 7 | — | E 7 | E 7 | — | E 7 | E 8 | — | E 8 | — | — | E 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 66 | 15 | 279 | — | 96 | 199 | — | 104 | 367 | — | 167 | — | — | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 26 | 32 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Rio de Janeiro | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Brazil | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Arpoador Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Arpoador provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Arpoador can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Arpoador surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Arpoador) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Arpoador may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Arpoador is 14 km (9 miles) from the very large city of Niteroi. If you plan a holiday in Rio de Janeiro, look for hotels and other accommodation in Niteroi. Niteroi has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as cheap car hire and transport links.
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