Alexandra Headland Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve gotta be straight with you—this 16-day outlook for Alexandra Headland is a tough one. We’re looking at a long, frustrating stretch of small, messy surf with hardly a window worth paddling out for. The first decent hint of something doesn’t even show up until the morning of Wednesday the 9th, and even then, it’s barely a pulse.

For the first six days, from Thursday the 3rd right through to Tuesday the 8th, it’s a write-off. Tiny waves, mostly under 3 ft, with cross-shore or onshore winds chopping everything up. The energy is pathetic—mostly in the 30s to 80s range (weak). There’s a brief moment of glassy conditions on Friday the 4th morning, but with only 1 ft of swell, it’s flat as a tack. Not worth getting wet.

Wednesday the 9th morning finally sees a bit of life: a 4 ft swell from the SE, with a light SSE wind that’s cross-offshore, keeping the surface clean. The combined energy sits at 112 (moderate), but the period is only 6 seconds, so it’s short, weak windswell. The wave comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions,” and honestly, that’s the best we’ve got for a while. It’s a beginner-friendly size, but don’t expect any grunt.

Thursday the 10th morning gets a bump in size—7 ft from the SE, with a fresh SSE breeze blowing cross-off, making it clean. But the energy jumps to 369 (moderate-strong), and with a 6-second period, it’s going to be a lumpy, disorganised mess. Rain showers too. Not great, but if you’re desperate, it’s the only thing close to a surfable window.

The standout, if you can call it that, is Friday the 11th morning. We’ve got 8 ft from the ESE, with a 12 mph SE cross-shore wind. The combined energy thumps up to 755 (strong). The period is still only 8 seconds, so it’s not groundswell, but that’s a fair bit of water moving. The comment says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions,” so it’s a gamble. For experienced surfers only at that size—8 ft is expert territory, and the short period means it’ll be dumping fast. The afternoon of the 11th cleans up a bit with a cross-off wind, dropping to 7 ft, but still marginal.

After that, it trails off again. Saturday the 12th through to Friday the 18th is mostly 3 ft or less, with messy winds and weak energy (under 260). The very last entry, Friday the 18th morning, has a glassy 2 ft from the ENE, with a 8-second period, but it’s only 65 energy—barely a ripple.

The water temperature is 68° F, which is 2° colder than average for this time of year, so you’ll feel that chill. Alexandra Headland is a beach and point setup, and with the swell direction mostly from the SE or E, it’s not matching the optimum SE direction from the guidance. Crowds are often here, but you won’t have to worry about that with this forecast.

Honestly, if you’re a kite surfer, the stronger winds from Thursday the 10th onward might be more interesting than paddle surfing. For us wave riders, it’s a lean fortnight. The best bet is Friday the 11th morning for the biggest swell, but it’s a long shot. Keep an eye on it—forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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