Alexandra Headland Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s look at what’s coming up for Alexandra Headland. This spot is a beach and point setup, exposed to the swell and it’s generally a consistent break, so it’s a good place to keep an eye on.

Right now, the start of the window is a bit slow. We’ve got a small bump on Sunday morning, July 12th, with some waist-high 3ft swell from the ESE at 11 seconds. The water temperature is sitting at 69°, which is just a touch cooler than average for this time of year. The wind is a cross-off at 9 mph, keeping things reasonably clean. The combined wave energy is moderate (202). It’s a "good surf" call, but it’s not a standout. The afternoon drops off, so don’t expect much after lunch.

Monday the 13th is even smaller. The morning has a clean 2ft from the ESE, but the energy is weak (64). It’s surfable but very ordinary. The rest of the week through to Wednesday the 15th is pretty flat. We’re looking at a few days of tiny, unremarkable waves.

Now, here’s the real story. Things start to fire up on Thursday the 16th. The morning swell jumps to 5ft from the SSE, and the energy is moderate (357). But the wind is a stiff cross-off at 16 mph, which makes it a bit of a handful. The afternoon is where it gets interesting: 7ft from the SSE with a period of 10 seconds, and the wind is still strong at 22 mph. The energy is pumping (1004). This is a solid, powerful swell, but the wind is fresh. It’s a marginal call at best due to the wind.

Friday the 17th brings a risk of thunderstorms and a 10ft swell from the SE, but the wind is howling at 25 mph. The wave energy is high (995), but the wind is going to make it a messy, blown-out mess. This is not a paddle-friendly day. This setup is more interesting for kite surfing.

The biggest moment of the whole outlook comes on Saturday the 18th. The afternoon delivers a massive 16ft swell from the SE with a long period of 12 seconds. The wave energy is off the charts (9316). This is a true groundswell. A swell this size and period is only for experienced surfers. It’s going to be big, powerful, and the 12-second period means it’ll have real punch. The wind is still a strong cross-off at 22 mph, but with that much energy, it’s the standout. This is the best on offer, but it’s a serious, expert-only wave.

After that, the swell drops back down. Sunday the 19th still has a solid 10ft, but the wind is still up there. The energy is still strong (3119), but the conditions are marginal. The following week sees a slow decline. Monday the 20th has 7ft from the ESE, and by Tuesday the 21st, we’re back to 4ft. The wind stays cross-off, keeping things clean, but the size drops. By Wednesday the 22nd, it’s down to 3ft, and the energy is low (271). The rest of the week is a slow fade into small, ordinary surf.

The standout is Saturday the 18th afternoon. That 16ft, 12-second groundswell with massive energy (9316) is the big one. It’s a powerful, long-period swell that will be best handled at a point or reef, but here at the headland, it’s going to be a heavy, expert-only session. The wind is strong, but the sheer size of the swell is the main event.

- Rusty

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