The Groin (Noosa) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: this 16-day stretch for The Groin is looking properly grim. We’ve got a long, flat, and frustrated run ahead, so if you’re hanging for a wave, you might want to find another hobby for a while. The good news is that the long-range charts show a pulse of energy trying to build, but it’s a week and a half away, so don’t book the day off just yet.

We start out with almost nothing on offer. Friday the 14th through to Monday the 17th are all basically flat, with just 0.1m to 0.4m of weak, short-period easterly slop. The wind is mostly a cross-offshore breeze, but with that little swell, it’s just a clean and empty ocean. Monday morning is the only time we see some lumpy cross-chop, but it’s still nothing to get excited about. This is a dead start.

Tuesday the 18th rolls in with a bit of a pulse – the swell jumps to 2.2m from the ESE, but the period is only 8 seconds, and the energy reading hits 587. That’s a moderate kick, but the direction is all wrong for The Groin, and the comment is “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” It’s not going to be any good. By Wednesday the 19th, it drops back to 1.3m, still short-period, and the energy is down to 186. That’s weak and ordinary.

From Thursday the 20th through to Monday the 24th, we’re stuck in a pattern of 0.7m to 1.2m of short-period, east-northeast windswell. The winds are mostly cross-off or light, so the surface stays clean, but there’s just no push or power. This is the kind of surf you look at from the beach and decide it’s not worth the paddle. The only decent window in this whole first week is Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning, where it’s technically surfable at around 1.2m to 1.3m, but the period is still under 9 seconds, so it’s going to be mushy and sectiony.

Then we hit a proper dead zone. From Monday the 24th, the swell just dies again. We’re talking 0.4m to 0.6m of weak easterly dribble for the rest of the month, with a few rain showers and fresh cross-shore winds making it choppy and lumpy. This is a serious stretch of nothing.

Now, the one thing that stands out in this whole mess is that Tuesday the 18th’s pulse. But here’s the thing: The Groin (Noosa region) is a breakwater that’s fairly exposed, and it needs an east-northeast swell to really work. That 2.2m ESE pulse is coming from the wrong direction, and with that short period, it’s going to close out and be a mess. For a beginner, that size is already over the limit, and for everyone else, it’s just not worth the crowd that will inevitably show up.

Honestly, there’s nothing here that warrants a “get out there” call. The whole 16-day window is a desert. With this many days of flat, weak conditions, it’s fair to say this is just what happens in this area – a long, blank stretch is more normal than a run of good surf.

If you’re desperate, that Tuesday the 18th might offer a push, but with the wrong direction and poor quality, it’s going to be a battle. I’d be waiting for the forecast to change, because right now, it’s looking like a very long wait.

Stay patient.

Rusty.

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