Whangamata Estuary Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’ve got a long look ahead, and I gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough one for the Whangamata Estuary.

The whole 16-day window is a real struggle. There’s no standout session, no day to circle on the calendar. We’re looking at a long, dry spell with barely a whimper of proper surf. The first real chance to even get wet doesn’t come until Wednesday morning, the 29th of July, and even then, it’s a real marginal call.

For the first full week, it’s all tiny, weak energy. The swell is barely pushing 2ft to 2ft from the East, with periods around 11 to 13 seconds. The energy is low, reading between 45 and 108 (weak to moderate), so you’re not getting any push. The water temp is sitting at 59°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year.

Wednesday the 29th is the first time the conditions line up for a paddle. The morning sees a glassy 2ft easterly swell with a 13-second period, and the wind is glass. The combined energy is only 89 (weak), so it’s knee-high dribble, but it’s clean. It’s surfable, but it’s very ordinary. The afternoon turns glassy too, but the swell drops to 1ft from the ESE. That’s about as good as it gets.

Thursday the 30th offers a similar story. A glassy morning with 2ft of east swell and a 12-second period, energy reading 108 (moderate). Again, it’s clean, but it’s tiny. The afternoon goes glassy again but the swell drops to 2ft.

Then we hit a bit of a bump. Friday the 31st brings a jump in size – 4ft to 5ft from the north – but the period plummets to 6 seconds, which is short-period wind chop. The wind is a moderate cross-shore, so it’s a messy, blown-out mess. The energy jumps to 165 and 267 (moderate), but the quality is zero. It’s more of a kite session than a surf.

The first week of August is a continuation of the same poor story. Saturday the 1st and Sunday the 2nd have glassy mornings with 3ft to 3ft of northerly slop, but the period is still short (6-7 seconds). The energy is moderate (161-192), but the waves are just weak and lumpy. It’s surfable but very ordinary.

Monday the 3rd is the best of a bad bunch. We get 4ft from the NNE with a 6-second period, and the wind is cross-off from the WSW. The energy is 159 (moderate). The conditions will be clean, but that short period means the waves will be fat and lack shape. It’s not a standout, but it’s the closest we get to a half-decent paddle.

From Tuesday the 4th right through to Sunday the 9th of August, it’s a complete write-off. The swell is tiny (1ft to 3ft) and onshore from the east or northeast, with moderate to fresh winds. It’s choppy, bumpy, and just plain ugly. The energy stays low, under 100 for most of it.

So, if you’re waiting for a good one, you’re going to be waiting a long time. The only real advice I can give is to keep an eye on the Wednesday the 29th morning for a glassy, clean, but tiny paddle. Other than that, it’s a stretch of flat, blown-out days. The forecast can always change, but right now, it’s a tough run.

Rusty.

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