Whangamata Estuary Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's in store for us.

First up, the situation at Whangamata Estuary. The water temp is sitting around 60°F, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, nothing unusual there.

Honestly, the next week and a half is a write-off. From Sunday the 12th right through to Monday the 20th, there's zero surf worth paddling out for. We're talking tiny, weak lumps with poor energy (as low as 20) and messy winds. A couple of those mornings will be glassy, but with waves barely reaching 1ft to 2ft, it’s just not enough to ride. You'd be better off checking your wax collection.

Then, things get heavy. On Tuesday the 21st, the swell jumps to 7ft with a massive 502 energy reading, but with a near gale (31 mph) from the ESE and heavy rain on the way, it’s a mess. That afternoon it pushes 10ft and 1193 energy, with strong cross-shore chop. Don’t even think about it.

Wednesday the 22nd sees the swell go nuclear. The morning hits 18ft with an energy of 6980, and the afternoon 20ft with a staggering 10320. Even with a light S wind making it glassy in the arvo, the memo from the ocean is clear: this is way too big for this break. Even if the wind is kind, you're not surfing here unless you've got a death wish. This is kite-surf territory if anything.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting for the real surfers. Thursday the 23rd of July is the standout. The morning brings a 15ft easterly groundswell (period 12 seconds) with a WSW cross-offshore breeze at 6 mph. The combined energy is through the roof at 10677—that's very strong wave energy. The comment says exceptional conditions for expert surfers, and I believe it. This is a serious, powerful swell with clean, offshore lines. This is the pick of the entire outlook, but you better be experienced. That afternoon stays clean but the energy drops slightly to 6016. The swell direction (ENE) is a good match for the break's optimum.

Friday the 24th is still pumping in the morning with a 13ft swell (6850 energy), but the wind is a cross-on from the SSE, so it won't be as clean. The afternoon on Friday the 24th, however, is a gem. The swell drops to 10ft but it goes glassy—dead calm—with 2484 energy. That’s still a solid, long-period groundswell (11 seconds) and perfect conditions. It’s still big for beginners, but for experts, that’s a beautiful session.

Into Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th, the swell drops to a more manageable 7ft to 5ft range, with clean offshore to glassy winds. The energy is still moderate to strong (up to 1136). These are very good, surfable days for a broader range of surfers, but the real magic was Thursday and Friday. Be aware that crowds are possible here, so get in early.

For the second week, the swell fades further from Monday the 27th onward, dropping under 3ft with only ordinary conditions. It'll be a slow finish.

So, to sum it up: ignore the first ten days. Thursday the 23rd morning is the day for experts, with Friday the 24th afternoon a close second for clean, big waves. Saturday and Sunday are solid but smaller. Don't sleep on that Thursday session.

Stay safe out there.
- Rusty

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