Whangamata Estuary Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Whangamata Estuary over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, mate, it’s a pretty bleak run. We’ve got a solid gap of flat, poor, or just unsurfable conditions stretching from now, Thursday the 23rd of July, all the way through to the tail end of next week. That first sniff of anything barely rideable doesn’t show up until Wednesday the 29th of July, and even then, it’s only just enough to get wet.

The real story is the lack of any proper swell. Most of this period is plagued by tiny waves—mostly 0.7ft to 1.3ft—with a few pulses that barely touch 3.3ft. The water temp is sitting at 59°, which is pretty much spot-on for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Let’s break it down. Thursday and Friday the 23rd and 24th are totally flat, just ankle-slappers if that. Over the weekend, Saturday the 25th sees a jump in energy (combined energy 253), with a 3.3ft north swell but a strong 19 mph offshore wind. Sounds good in theory, but the recorded surf quality is still poor. Sunday the 26th goes glassy but tiny at 1.3ft. We then drift through Monday and Tuesday with nothing but 1.3ft to 1.6ft dribble.

Wednesday the 29th is the first time the forecast doesn’t say “poor.” It’s still only 1.6ft from the east with a 13-second period and glassy conditions, so it’ll be surfable but very, very ordinary. That’s the only real flicker of life for a week. Thursday the 30th is more of the same.

Friday the 31st of July sees a bump in size—3.3ft in the morning, climbing to 5.2ft in the afternoon—but it’s short period (6 seconds) and coming from the NNW, which is not the optimum ENE direction for this break. The energy is solid (342), but the quality is marginal at best, with light rain around.

Then we hit another dead spot. Saturday the 1st of August through Tuesday the 4th sees the swell drop back to 0.7ft to 2.3ft, with onshore or cross-shore winds messing up any chance of a clean wave. The combined energy is weak, staying below 80.

The only standout in the whole 16-day window is Wednesday the 5th of August. Now that’s a morning session to keep an eye on. We’ve got a 4.6ft east swell with a 7-second period, a clean cross-off wind from the SW at 9 mph, and a combined energy of 270. The forecast even says “expect good surf conditions.” That is, without a doubt, the best on offer. After that, the afternoon goes choppy again, and Thursday the 6th fades back into poor cross-shore junk.

So, if you’re hanging for a wave, circle Wednesday the 5th of August and be ready for the morning glass-off. Everything else is a write-off or barely a paddle.

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