Whangamata Estuary Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a pretty bleak run for the next week and a half. The only break we’re looking at is Whangamata Estuary, and the truth is, it’s pretty much flatlined for most of the period. The first real chance of anything rideable doesn't show up until Wednesday the 29th of July, and even then it's more of a paddling exercise than a proper surf – you’re looking at a tiny 2ft east swell, but the winds are glassy in the morning, so if you’re desperate for a foam-ball session on a longboard, that’s your window. The combined energy is a weak 90, which tells you all you need to know about the lack of push.

The water temp is sitting at 59°, and with a tiny anomaly of 0.2°, that’s bang average for this time of year.

Then we get a bit of a jump on Friday the 31st of July. The morning sees a spike in swell height to 8ft from the north, with a short period of 8 seconds and combined energy shooting up to 1254 – that’s a lot of moving water, but it’s coming in with a fresh cross-offshore wind, and that period is too short for such a size. It’s going to be a lumpy, chunky mess, really just marginal and better suited for someone who knows what they’re doing on a bigger board. The afternoon drops to 5ft with similar wind but better clarity.

Saturday the 1st of August is the standout of this whole outlook – and I’m saying that with a heavy heart because it’s nothing special. The swell drops to 4ft from the north-northwest, but we get a solid offshore wind from the west-northwest at 12 mph. That’s clean. The period is short at 7 seconds, so it won’t have much shape, but it’ll be clean enough to get a few close-out runners. Combined energy is moderate at 262. The crowds can be a problem here sometimes, so you might not be alone, but for this region, that Saturday morning is the best you’re going to get in this 16-day window.

After that, it’s a done deal. From Sunday the 2nd of August right through to Monday the 10th of August, the forecast is mostly small, messy, and blown out. There’s a long stretch where the swell drops to 1ft or even 0.7ft, with periods up to 17 seconds on the 4th and 5th of August, but with no size at all, that deep period just means glassy but gutless conditions. Glassy, sure, but you’ll be sitting there waiting for a ripple.

So to wrap it: if you absolutely need to get wet, the Wednesday the 29th of July morning is your glassy ankle-snatcher, and the standout is Saturday the 1st of August morning for clean, offshore conditions and a little bit of push at 4ft. Don’t hold your breath for anything after that.

Rusty.

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