Whangamata Estuary Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down the next couple of weeks for the local lineup. We’ve got a long, quiet stretch to start, then a proper swell window, before it gets a bit messy again.

The only spot we’re looking at is Whangamata Estuary. It’s a beach/bar setup, best with an ENE swell direction. Water temp is about 58°F, which is right around average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

For the first few days, from Wednesday the 5th through to Saturday the 8th, it’s basically flat. Swell heights are tiny, mostly 0.3ft to 1.0ft, and the combined energy is weak, under 25. Don’t even bother. A few offshores blow on Friday, but on that size, it’s just a pretty view.

There’s a bit of a lift on Sunday the 9th, with a pulse of windswell from the north pushing 3ft to 4ft, but the period is a short 5-6 seconds and the wind is up to 12 mph. The energy is still low (55–98), and the conditions are poor. Not worth the drive.

Now, Monday the 10th is where things start to look a little interesting. We get a glassy morning with 4ft of north swell at 7 seconds, and the energy jumps to a moderate 200. It’s still ordinary, but at least the water’s clean. That glassy condition is a big positive.

Tuesday the 11th and Wednesday the 12th see a similar story: 3ft to 4ft from the north-northeast, with periods around 7-8 seconds. The winds are light and clean on Wednesday, with glassy conditions again. The energy is moderate (154–175). This is rideable, but not the standout.

The real story starts to build on Thursday the 13th. Swell hits 6ft from the north, but the wind goes cross-onshore and it’s a bit of a mess, with energy at 627. Friday the 14th gets bigger, with 8ft in the morning and 13ft in the afternoon from the northeast, but again, the wind is cross-shore and it’s likely a bit of a washing machine.

Here’s the standout. Saturday the 15th of August. This is the one. The morning offers a clean 12ft northeast swell (11-second period), with cross-offshore winds from the west-southwest. The energy is a massive 3154. By the afternoon, it’s 13ft from the north-northeast, still 11 seconds, with clean cross-offshore winds, and the energy is through the roof at 6748. This is excellent for experienced surfers. The swell direction matches the optimum ENE, so the estuary bar should be working. A 13ft swell is expert territory. There will be a crowd, as this spot can get busy, but for those who know what they’re doing, this is the best session of the whole outlook.

Sunday the 16th is still good in the morning, with 7ft from the northeast at 10 seconds and clean cross-offshore winds. Energy is 809. The afternoon turns onshore, so get your paddle in early.

After that, the swell slowly drops off. Monday the 17th through to Wednesday the 19th offers 4ft to 5ft from the northeast, with periods of 9-10 seconds. The winds are light and variable, with some glassy periods. The energy is moderate (194–241). These are fun, surfable days, but nothing special.

The final few days, Wednesday the 19th afternoon through Thursday the 20th, the swell drops away to 2ft to 3ft, and the wind picks up onshore, making everything a bit sloppy. The window is closing.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a write-off. The best waves are on Saturday the 15th, with a huge, clean swell. Sunday the 16th morning is also a great shout. The rest is just okay. Keep an eye on the forecast, but for now, that’s the story.

Rusty.

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