Whangamata Estuary Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, I'm Rusty, and I've been staring at the charts for the Whangamata Estuary area, and I've got to be straight with you – it's a tough stretch coming up. For the next week and a half, the swell is just pathetic. We're looking at a solid 9 days of tiny, weak waves that won't get you out of bed. The water temp is sitting at 59°, which is about average for this time of year, so you won't need a 5/4, but you'll want a good spring suit.

Let's break it down. From Saturday the 18th through to Sunday the 26th, we're in the doldrums. The swell is hovering around 0.7 ft to 3 ft, combined energy is barely cracking 100 (18 to 143), and the periods are short and messy. There's a moment on the 21st (Tuesday) afternoon where it goes glassy, and on the 22nd (Wednesday) morning it's also glassy, but with waves at 1 ft and 2 ft, it's just not worth the effort. Even the few days with a bit more wind, like the 24th (Friday) with a 3 ft N swell, the energy is still only 78, so it's all fluff.

Now, the light at the end of the tunnel. By Monday the 27th, things start to change. We see a solid 7 ft E swell roll in for the morning, combined energy jumps to 605 (strong), and the wind is a clean cross-off from the WSW at just 6 mph. This is the standout of the whole outlook. The period is 8 seconds, so it's a short-period wind swell, but with that size and those clean conditions, it'll be offering up some fun, punchy beach break waves. The afternoon holds at 6 ft with the same clean wind, so you could get a solid session in. The 28th (Tuesday) morning is also a good runner-up, with 5 ft from the ENE, a 9-second period, and clean cross-off winds. That's a combined energy of 411 (moderate), and it's a decent wave. Be aware, though, that the Estuary is a beach/bar setup and can be inconsistent, and crowds are sometimes an issue, so you might have to share.

After that peak, the swell drops off quickly. By the 29th and 30th, the wind turns onshore and the quality goes to the pack. The 31st (Friday) has a 2 ft E swell with a 10-second period (127 combined energy) and a light cross-off wind, but it's just okay. The first few days of August are even smaller, with a very long-period 15-second swell at 1 ft, but that's just straight and weak for the beach.

So, to put it simply: wait for Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th. That's your window. The rest is a write-off or barely surfable.

Rusty.

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