Whangamata Estuary Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk about what’s happening at Whangamata Estuary. I gotta be straight with you – the next couple of weeks are pretty grim for surf. We’re looking at a long, quiet stretch with only one potential day that gets my attention.

Right now and through the weekend, it’s small and wonky. Thursday the 9th has a weak 3ft swell from the east, but the wind is all over the place – cross-off in the morning and a messy cross-shore in the arvo. Combined energy is low, around 155, and it’s just not worth paddling out.

Friday the 10th is even smaller, droppin’ to 2ft, with more cross-onshore chop. Saturday morning the 11th is a tease – you get a light breeze and a clean surface on that same 3ft easterly, and the energy bumps up a bit to 130, but it’s still pretty ordinary. Not gonna see any real power.

Then it really goes flat. Sunday the 12th through to the middle of the following week, swell drops below 2ft and the energy barely reaches 48. You might get a tiny glass-off moment on Monday the 13th morning with a 4ft NNE windswell and zero wind – sounds good, but that period is only 5 seconds, so it's choppy and weak. Combined energy is 124. It’s surfable, but not quality.

There is a window on Tuesday the 14th morning: a 4ft NNE swell with a northwest cross-off breeze at just 5 km/h. The energy sits at 170, and the clean surface makes it look juicier than anything else around. But don’t get too excited – it’s still short-period and won’t offer much push.

After that, we hit another flat spell through to Saturday the 18th, when the swell pumps up to 10ft from the northeast. Before you grab your board, listen – that’s a 10ft onshored mess with a strong easterly wind at 20 km/h, and the combined energy is massive at 1775. The period is only 9 seconds, and with that onshore wind, this is a blown-out wall of white water. It’s more of a kite-surfing day than a paddle-surfing day. This is only for experts if anyone is crazy enough, but the quality is terrible.

Then Sunday the 19th is another onshore chaos day, 5ft but with 35-40 km/h easterly winds. Totally blown out. The rest of the forecast, into the 24th, just stays small and onshore, with rain and fresh breezes. The only silver lining is the long-period 12-second east swell showing up on the 24th (Friday morning), but it’s 5ft under a 35 km/h easterly. That’s a no-go for clean surf.

The standout? Honestly, it's Tuesday morning, the 14th of July. That 4ft NNE swell with near-calm cross-off wind and a clean surface is the best you’re gonna find. Break is Whangamata Estuary. Water temp is about average for the time of year. Crowds can show up here sometimes, so you might have company, but the waves are small and weak. It’s not a standout for power, just for being the cleanest session in a very long flat spell.

So, the story is: a week of flatness, one so-so window on the 14th, then a week of either too much onshore wind or weak junk. Don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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