Whangamata Estuary Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s talk about the surf outlook for Whangamata Estuary.

Right now the story is quiet. We’re looking at a long stretch of small, weak surf through the first week with hardly anything worth paddling for. The waves stay tiny, barely 0.3ft to 0.7ft, and the combined swell energy is barely registering, sitting in the double digits most days (e.g. 46). The wind stays light to moderate and cross-off or glassy at times, which would keep it clean if there was any push, but there’s just not enough swell to ride. That flat spell runs from Sunday 2nd August all the way through to Sunday 9th August. It’s a proper gap.

Then, from Monday 10th August onwards, things start to wake up. On Monday 10th morning, we get a jump to 7ft from the north, but the wind’s onshore and it’s on the messy side – the combined energy spikes to 999, so there’s power, but the quality is only marginal at best. That afternoon drops back to 5ft.

The first real standout comes on Tuesday 11th August afternoon. The swell holds at a solid 7ft from the north-northeast, period’s 8 seconds, and the wind goes glassy – dead calm. Combined energy hits 456, which is solid. That’s the first good session in the window. The water temperature is 59°F, bang on average for this time of year, nothing weird going on there.

Wednesday 12th August morning pushes up to 8ft from the north, but the wind is cross and it’s pretty raw with rain showers. The energy jumps right up to 1427, so there’s heaps of grunt, but it’s more for experienced crew – 8ft is expert territory, and with short period (8 seconds) at a beach/bar setup, it’ll be tricky and a bit lumpy.

Thursday 13th August afternoon looks tidy: 7ft from the northeast with a 9-second period, light cross-off wind, combined energy of 595, and clean conditions. That’s a really nice window.

Friday 14th August morning could be the pick of the whole run. You’ve got 8ft from the northeast, period up to 10 seconds, light cross-off breeze from the north-northwest, and the combined energy reads 1200 – that’s proper. This is the one to circle. Afternoon gets blown out with a fresh onshore breeze though, so make the most of the morning.

Saturday 15th August keeps it going: 6ft in the morning with a moderate offshore from the west-southwest, clean and rideable. The afternoon drops a touch to 6ft but with a gentle offshore, glassy lines. Very good.

Sunday 16th August morning has 7ft from the north-northwest, light offshore, combined energy 974, and clean conditions. Another top session. The afternoon eases off to 4ft but stays clean.

After that, Monday 17th August drops right back to 2ft and 2ft, with moderate to fresh offshore winds and energy in the 70s – back to small and not worth chasing.

One thing to note: Whangamata Estuary is an inconsistent spot and tends to be a beginner-friendly beach/bar break. It’s fairly exposed to swell, and the optimum direction is east-northeast. The good swells we see come from the north and northeast, so they’re working okay. Crowds can show up sometimes, so expect company on the better days.

Overall, the first week is a write-off. The real action kicks off from Tuesday 11th August afternoon and runs through to Sunday 16th August morning. The absolute standout is Friday 14th August morning – 8ft northeast swell, 10-second period, and glassy conditions – that’s the one to aim for.

Rusty.

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