Whangamata Estuary Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – the next 16 days at Whangamata Estuary are a quiet patch. There’s a long stretch of pretty ordinary surf ahead, so keep your expectations in check. The first real chance of something decent doesn’t show up until the morning of Tuesday the 14th of July.

From Thursday the 9th through Monday the 13th of July, it’s mostly poor. We’re looking at small, weak east swell with cross and cross-off winds, some clean windows but no real power. The combined energy sits around 149 to 16, which is weak. Not worth paddling out for.

Tuesday the 14th of July is the standout. The morning brings a jump in swell – 6ft from the north, period around 6 seconds, and combined energy of 394 (moderate). The wind is cross-off from the NNW, 15 km/h, keeping it clean. The wave comment says “expect good surf conditions,” and that’s the best we’ve got. The water temp is 60°, pretty much average for this time of year. Crowds at the Estuary can be around sometimes, but early on a Tuesday should be alright. The break is a beach/bar setup, inconsistent, so don’t expect a constant bank. That north swell is a bit off the optimum direction of ENE, but it’s the only real energy in the window.

After that, Tuesday afternoon drops to 4ft from the NNE, still clean but very ordinary. Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th are tiny again, with glassy conditions but barely any swell – 2ft or less. The combined energy drops to the 20s and 30s.

The second week gets a bit weird. Saturday the 18th of July afternoon has a glassy 4ft from the ENE, period 6 seconds, energy 132 – surfable but ordinary. Sunday the 19th of July morning picks up a bit: 6ft from the ENE, glassy, energy 257, but still just “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” Then Sunday afternoon jumps to 8ft from the NE, onshore wind from the east at 5 km/h, energy 709 – that’s a lot of water but the wind is onshore and the comment says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” For a beach/bar, that’s probably messy.

Monday the 20th of July is a big one: 15ft to 16ft from the NE, period 10-11 seconds, energy 3970 to 5622 – that’s very strong. But the wind is onshore at 20-25 km/h from the ESE and ENE. The comment says “marginal” and then “poor.” For a beach/bar, that’s more of a kite session than a paddle session. The setup will be blown out and dangerous for beginners. The swell direction is NE, which is a fair match for the optimum ENE, but the wind is the killer.

The rest of the week into the 23rd and 24th of July is back to small, clean conditions but tiny swell – 2ft to 2ft, combined energy under 150. Not worth the wetsuit.

So, to sum it up: the best window is the morning of Tuesday the 14th of July at Whangamata Estuary. That’s your one real shot at a clean, head-high wave with a bit of push. Everything else is either too small, too windy, or too big and messy. Stay patient.

Rusty.

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