Whangamata Estuary Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – it’s a flat, quiet start and a long wait ahead for anything worth paddling out for.

Overall, we’re looking at a pretty bleak stretch for Whangamata Estuary. The next solid week and a half is dominated by weak, small swell and a lot of onshore or cross-shore wind. There’s a very small window of clean, rideable conditions mid-week, but it’s not going to get the heart pumping. For a spot that’s already inconsistent, this is a rough run. The water temp is about average for this time of year.

The first real chance to grab anything decent is Wednesday, July 8th. The morning shows a 6 ft swell from the NE with a period of 8 seconds and clean, cross-offshore winds from the SSW. The combined energy is moderate (490), so there’s some push there, but it’s a short-period wind swell, so expect it to be a bit lumpy and disorganised. It’s not big, only 6 ft, so manageable for a wide range of surfers. The afternoon cleans up further with a light WSW breeze, but the swell drops to 4 ft and swings east. It’s surfable, but unremarkable.

Thursday, July 9th, is your best bet if you’re desperate. The morning has that same clean cross-off wind and a long-period signal (10 seconds) from the east, but the swell is tiny at 3 ft and the energy is weak (172). It’s a clean knee-high dribbler – good for a longboard or a learner session, but nothing to write home about.

After that, it’s a disaster. From Friday, July 10th, all the way through to Tuesday, July 22nd, conditions are almost entirely poor. We’re talking swell heights dropping to 1 ft to 2 ft, combined energy under 100, and persistent onshore or cross-shore winds. There are a couple of glassy days on July 12th and 13th, but with zero swell (1 ft or less), it’s a lake.

There is a big spike on the very last day, Wednesday, July 22nd. The forecast shows a steep 10 ft NE swell with a period of 11 seconds and very strong energy (2251). But the wind is a cross-onshore NNE breeze at 12 mph, creating choppy, messy conditions. That much swell with dirty wind makes it a raw, challenging day for experts only, and honestly, it looks way more appealing for kite surfers than paddle surfers. It’s a long way out, so take that with a grain of salt, but it’s the only sign of life in the whole 16-day window.

To sum it up: if you want a wave, your only real shot is the Wednesday and Thursday of the first week for some clean but small surf. Otherwise, get ready for a long, flat spell. The crowds at Whangamata Estuary can be a factor sometimes, but I doubt anyone will be out there.

Rusty.

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