Whangamata Estuary Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Alright, let’s be upfront – this is a tough one. We’re looking at a long stretch ahead for the Coromandel region around Whangamata Estuary, and honestly, the surf options are pretty bleak for the bulk of it. There’s a good long gap of quiet water to start, then one very brief, punchy little window that looks totally out of place. After that, it’s back to the same old story. Keep the expectations low for this one.

Right off the bat, Monday the 27th of July through to Thursday afternoon the 30th of July is flat or nearly flat, with tiny weak swell just 0.98 ft to 2 ft from the east-southeast, and combined energy barely reaching 58 to 92 (weak). The wind is mostly cross-off or light, and a few sessions turn glassy, but there’s just no push to ride. It’s basically a lake with a ripple.

Then on Friday the 31st of July, we finally see some life. This is the standout of the whole 16-day window, but it’s a real short-lived spike. The morning kicks off with an offshore breeze from the west-northwest at 9 mph and a 5 ft swell from the north, period a short 7 seconds. The combined energy is up to 282 (moderate). By the afternoon it gets better – the swell jumps to 7 ft from the north-northwest, period still short at 8 seconds, and the offshore wind strengthens to 12 mph from the west-northwest. Combined energy hits 762 (strong). That afternoon session looks like the real deal for experienced surfers – anything over 5 ft is pushing it for beginners, and at 7 ft it’s best left to those who know what they’re doing. The winds are clean, the surf has some grunt, and for Whangamata Estuary in July, that’s a rare treat. Crowds are sometimes an issue here, so you might have some company if the word gets out. The water’s sitting at 59°F with a 0.2° anomaly – pretty average for this time of year, nothing out of the ordinary.

But that’s it. From Saturday the 1st of August onward, it’s a long, slow fade. The swell drops back to under 2 ft with combined energy falling into the teens and twenties – weak, weak, weak. The winds are cross-off or offshore for much of it, but you could have the cleanest glass in the world and it wouldn’t matter when the waves are that gutless. There are a few glassy mornings on the 9th and 10th of August, with a bump to 2 ft or 3 ft on the 10th and combined energy of 123 (moderate), but the swell period is a pathetic 6 seconds and the direction is all over the place. Not worth paddling out for. The 11th of August Tuesday morning is dead flat calm with no wind, glassy, but 0.98 ft is barely a ripple.

Bottom line: if you’re not out there on Friday the 31st of July afternoon, you’re basically looking at two weeks of nothing. For the rest, it’s a long blank stretch. Forecasts can change, but right now this region is in a deep lull.

Rusty.

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