Whangamata Estuary Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee and settle in, 'cause we’ve got a mixed bag coming our way here at Whangamata Estuary. The next week and a half is pretty much a write-off, but there’s a little light at the end of the tunnel if you’ve got the patience.

Right now, the pattern is flat and disappointing. The swell is tiny through the rest of this week and into the next, with wave heights barely scraping 3 ft, and the period is short and weak. The energy is low – most days we’re looking at combined energy readings of just 20-50, which is basically nothing. For the first few days, the winds are mostly light or cross-off, but it doesn’t matter because the waves are just not there. We’ve got a few glassy mornings on Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th, but the swell is only 0.7 ft, so it’s a lake out there.

Then, from around the 19th of July, the wind kicks in strong from the east and southeast, and it’s onshore or cross-onshore, making for some lumpy, choppy, and frankly messy conditions. By the 22nd, the swell starts to build, but it’s coming with 18-25 mph onshore winds. The water temperature is sitting around 59°F, which is bang on average for the time of year.

The standout isn’t until much later. If you can hold out until Monday, the 27th of July, the whole picture flips. That morning, we’ve got a beautiful moment – glassy, dead calm conditions, with a solid 8 ft swell from the east at a 12-second period. That’s proper groundswell energy, with a combined energy of 1574. It’s a big swell, though, so this is strictly for experienced surfers. The wave direction is a little east of the estuary’s optimum, but with zero wind, it’s going to be clean and lined up. Sets will be bigger, with longer gaps, so paddling out won’t be a fight. That Monday morning window is the best on offer. The afternoon on the 27th and Tuesday the 28th still have decent leftovers, with the wind swinging offshore, but the size drops off.

There are long gaps of no surf from now until the 20th, and then it’s blowy and messy for another week. Don’t expect much crowd action here, as it’s inconsistent and rarely breaks well, but if it does come together on the 27th, it could be a quiet session for the few who know.

For the second week, the pattern is simpler: a big, messy northeast swell turns into a cleaner, glassy east swell, but only for that one window. After the 28th, it fades out again.

So, to sum it up: the first 12 days are a bust. The only real standout is the morning of Monday, the 27th of July. Mark it in your calendar.

Rusty.

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