Whangamata Bar Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, listen up. It’s Rusty here. The long-range maps are showing a real mixed bag for our stretch of coast. We’ve got a promising start this weekend, but then things are going to go flat for a solid stretch before we see a proper sizeable pulse arrive right at the end of the window. Get your good sessions in while you can, because there’s a lot of down time ahead.

First up, the standout of the near-term is Friday morning at Whangamata Bar (Whangamata-Bar). We’ve got a clean 5ft easterly-northeast groundswell, with only a slight air from the ESE making it glassy. The energy is moderate, sitting at 278, and the water temp is holding at 59°, which is dead average for this time of year. It’s a bit inconsistent, so you might be waiting for sets, but with clean conditions like that, it’s worth the patience. Friday afternoon is a washout though; the wind swings onshore and it’s going to get chopped up. Not worth it.

Saturday morning still looks decent. The swell holds around 6ft from the ENE with a better 404 energy reading. A cross-offshore wind will keep the face reasonably clean. The period bumps up to 8 seconds, which is okay for the bank. It’s a best option for the weekend, but expect it to be a bit more ordinary by the afternoon when the wind goes cross-shore and the tide becomes a factor.

Sunday sees the swell start to fade, dropping to 4ft and then 3ft. The winds are light and the conditions are clean, but there’s just not a lot of push there. It’s surfable but very ordinary, as we say.

Then we hit the doldrums. From Monday the 17th through the morning of Monday the 24th, there is nothing on offer. The swell drops to nothing, and the energy readings are in the single digits or low double-digits. A completely blank run, I’m telling you. The banks will be quiet, the water will be flat, and the only thing breaking will be the silence. This is a long gap with no good options at all.

Now, for the second week, we need to look way down the line. The models are hinting at something much bigger moving in around Tuesday the 25th. I can see a big pulse of swell coming with the energy numbers just exploding – we’re talking 1925 on Tuesday morning and a massive 4838 by Tuesday afternoon. That’s strong, very strong energy.

Tuesday the 25th is the true standout of the entire forecast. The morning brings a solid 12ft northeast swell with a clean, light cross-offshore breeze. The period is around 9 seconds, but the size and power are going to be something else. This is a serious, expert-only wave. It’s going to be way too big for the learning crew, and honestly, only for those who know the bar at Whangamata well. It’s shaping up to be a proper big-wave day. The afternoon looks like it might have some tide issues and the swell bumps up to 13ft, so morning is the call.

Wednesday the 26th is still big, with 7ft swell and strong energy around 967, but the wind starts to come onshore, making conditions more marginal. It’ll be a lot less clean and a lot more challenging.

From there it’s a slow decline back to average, ending with poor conditions and onshore breeze by the following weekend. The long-range promise of Tuesday the 25th is a big one, but it's a long way out, so treat it as promising but not locked in. Keep an eye on it.

Anyway, that’s the lay of the land. Get out there Friday morning for a clean one, and mark your calendar for the 25th if you’re an expert. I’ll be watching the charts.

Rusty.

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