Whangamata Bar Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I’m gonna level with you. This 16-day window for Whangamata Bar is a real mixed bag. We’ve got a serious dry spell coming up, with a big, heavy swell showing late in the game. But don’t get too excited just yet, because for most of the next week and a half, it’s going to be a struggle.

Right now, the water is right on the money for the season at 59°. Rarely feels a degree off average, so you don’t need to think about a steamer unless you’re a softie.

The first surf worth mentioning won’t be until Friday, July 31st. It’s a small pulse of 3ft from the north, with a short, dumpy period of 7 seconds. The wind is clean, offshore from the WNW, and the combined energy is moderate (174). The setup is workable for an intermediate, but it’s not going to be a standout. The swell is short and fat, so it’s more about trimming than anything else. That afternoon, the wind switches to a strong offshore from the west, but the swell drops back to 2ft. It’s clean, but you’ll be fighting for scraps.

Then we fall into a long, frustrating lull. From Saturday, August 1st, all the way through to Thursday, August 7th, the swell is tiny. We’re talking 0.7ft to 2ft, with periods that are either too short or too long. The energy is weak (mostly under 70). The winds are messy at times, but a few mornings are clean. Still, it’s just not enough to push a wave. You’d be better off doing something else.

Friday, August 7th is the start of a change, but it’s not a good one. The swell jumps to 5ft in the morning, then 7ft in the afternoon, all from the east. But it’s short-period windswell (6-7 seconds), and the cross-onshore wind is making it lumpy and choppy. The combined energy is getting strong (220 and 554), but the quality is poor. That’s a hard pass for paddle surfing. If you’ve got a kite, this might look interesting, but for a board, it’s a rinse cycle.

Now, the real heavy hitter comes in on Saturday, August 8th. This is the standout of the whole outlook. We’re looking at a solid 10ft groundswell from the ENE, with a long period of 8 seconds. The combined energy is massive (1274 in the morning, 1517 in the afternoon). This is expert territory. Over 8ft, it’s for the big dogs only. The morning is clean with a light cross-offshore wind from the SSW. That’s about as good as it gets for a big day at the Bar. The afternoon sees the wind shift to a cross-on from the SE, which will put a bit of a bump on it, but the sheer power will still be there. This is a true, heavy, powerful swell. If you’re confident and know the wave, the morning session is the one.

After that, it drops off quickly. Sunday, August 9th sees 4ft, but the wind is cross and cross-on, and the energy drops to 252. It’s messy. Monday, August 10th is a write-off with a strong cross-on wind.

The last two days of the outlook, Tuesday, August 11th and Wednesday, August 12th, offer a glimmer of hope. The swell settles to a clean 3ft to 5ft from the ENE, with a decent period of 9 to 10 seconds. The real kicker is the wind. Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning are glassy. Dead flat, no wind. The combined energy is solid (291 and 584). For the Wednesday morning session, that 5ft with glassy conditions is going to be a joy. It’s clean, heaving, and perfectly shaped for an intermediate to step up. The crowd profile is “sometimes,” so you might have a few out, but it won’t be a circus.

So, to sum it up: the absolute best on offer is the Saturday, August 8th morning for the big-wave crew, and the Wednesday, August 12th morning for the clean, fun, intermediate-friendly conditions. The rest is a long slog of flat spells and messy wind.

Rusty.

Read more