Whangamata Bar Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, it’s Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you—looking at this 16-day window for the Whangamata Bar, it’s a proper test of patience. The first stretch is pretty grim, with nothing but tiny, weak surf on the cards. We’re talking about a long, flat spell that runs from the 9th all the way through the 18th. There’s a bit of swell on the 19th and 20th, but it’s messy and short-period, so it’s not going to offer much. The real story is the big pulse that shows up late in the window, and even then, it’s a mixed bag.

The water temp is sitting at 59.2°F, which is about what you’d expect for this time of year, with the anomaly only 0.9°F above normal, so nothing weird going on there. The initial days are all small—ankle to knee-high at best. The wind is mostly offshore or cross-off, which would be great if there was any swell to push around. The energy readings are weak, in the range of 40 to 84, which tells you just how little power is in the water. It’s a perfect time to work on your board maintenance or just stay home.

That poor spell finally breaks around the 19th and 20th. The swell bumps up a bit on the Saturday (19th) to 4.3ft, then 5.2ft on the afternoon, with a period of 7 seconds. That short period means it’s going to be soft and a bit lumpy. The combined energy starts to show some moderate life (172 to 279), but with the wind cross-off and the swell direction from the north, which isn't ideal for this spot, it’s not a standout. It’s surfable, but you won’t be bragging about it.

Now, the real excitement is the pulse that arrives on the 21st. We’ve got a solid 9.8ft to 11.5ft of ENE swell showing up. The energy figures jump to 1351 and then 2027, which is strong. However, there’s a caveat. The morning of the 21st has clean, offshore wind, but the afternoon gets a bit questionable. The Monday (21st) is for experienced surfers only, as this size is way over the head and not for the faint-hearted. By Tuesday the 22nd, we’re looking at 11.5ft with a 12-second period, so it’s proper groundswell. The morning is glassy with just 3 mph wind, which is the best of the whole run. The energy is pumping at 3612. That’s the one to be excited about, but the Bar can be a bit tricky with long-period swells, so keep your wits about you. The afternoon gets a bit cross-shore, but still big.

Wednesday the 23rd is also decent, with a still-strong 6.9ft and a lighter 1058 energy, though the period has dropped to 11 seconds. It’s still good, but the magic from Tuesday morning is the peak. After that, the swell fades quickly into the 24th, dropping to around 3.3ft and turning onshore, so the window closes.

The standout is clearly Tuesday the 22nd morning. Big, clean, glassy, and powerful. It's a proper expert session. The Monday (21st) morning is the next best, with the offshore wind and big swell, but the conditions are a bit more marginal as the day goes on.

So, bottom line: it’s a long, flat grind for the first week and a half, then a big, serious swell shows up. Don’t get caught out.

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