Whangamata Bar Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, mate, Rusty here. Let's have a look at the cards for Whangamata Bar over the next couple of weeks. Honestly, it's a pretty bleak outlook. There's a long, long stretch of small and uninspiring surf ahead, and I'm not seeing much to get excited about. The first real spell of any size doesn't show up until Friday the 31st of July, and even then it comes with a lot of wind. The water's sitting at 59° on the first Sunday, which is pretty much dead average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The immediate future is all about tiny waves. Through Sunday the 26th, Monday the 27th, and Tuesday the 28th, we're looking at knee-high slop of 1ft to 2ft from the east-northeast or southeast. The combined swell energy is weak, reading between 36 and 62. There are a few windows of glassy or clean conditions, like Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning, but with waves that small, you're just floating around. It's surfable, but only just.

Wednesday the 29th offers a bit more of the same – 2ft and glassy in the morning, but the afternoon turns crummy with a light cross-shore. Thursday the 30th is another glassy morning with that same tiny 2ft east swell (77 energy), but the afternoon gets a bit of a north breeze.

Now, Friday the 31st of July is where it finally gets interesting, but it's a wildcard. The morning sees a jump to 8ft from the north with a short period of 8 seconds, and a massive combined energy of 1254. That's a lot of power, but the wind is a strong cross-offshore from the north-northwest at 19 mph. That's expert territory for sure – it'll be big, powerful, and probably a bit of a battle. The afternoon drops to 5ft, still from the north (8 second period, 328 energy), with a lighter cross-off. Not for the faint-hearted.

Saturday the 1st of August cleans up a bit. We've got 4ft from the north-northwest in the morning with a solid offshore wind from the west-northwest at 12 mph. That's a clean, lined-up wave (262 energy), but the period is only 7 seconds, so it'll be a bit soft and crumbly. The afternoon drops away to 2ft.

Then from Sunday the 2nd, it all goes pear-shaped. A big southerly swell hits, but it's accompanied by howling onshore winds of 22 to 25 mph. The 4ft and 4ft southeast swell (134 and 121 energy) will be a complete mess – more of a kite-surfing or windsurfing setup than something for a paddle surfer. That messy, choppy pattern sticks around through the 3rd and 4th of August.

The second week, into August, is a write-off. Tuesday the 4th, Wednesday the 5th, and Thursday the 6th see tiny 1ft to 3ft southeast swells, all with poor cross-onshore or even onshore winds. The energy is low to moderate, but the quality is garbage. From Friday the 7th through to Monday the 10th, it's all below 3ft with persistent onshore or cross-onshore breezes – just small, choppy, and not worth the wetsuit peel. The combined energy drops right off to between 36 and 94.

If you're waiting for something good, the only real window is the stand-out morning of Friday the 31st of July – but that's a big, short-period north swell with wind, strictly for experienced crew. Or, if you're after something cleaner but smaller, the offshore conditions on the morning of Saturday the 1st of August might give you a few fun ones. Beyond that, it's a long wait for a change. This is the kind of run that happens here sometimes – you just wait for the next system. Keep an eye on the charts, things can turn quick.

Rusty.

Read more