Waipaoa River Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get stuck into it. The forecast for the next couple of weeks is a bit of a mixed bag, a real tale of two halves. We’ve got a solid start, but then a long stretch of tiny, uncooperative surf before things might start to stir again. Let’s break it down.

The action kicks off straight away this Wednesday, August 5th, but it’s not for the faint of heart. The Waipaoa River (Gisborne) is the only game in town, and it’s going to be big and powerful. The combined energy is strong (3146) with a solid 12ft of SSE swell pushing through. The wind is a cross-off, which will keep the face reasonably clean, but the wave comment is clear: it’s too big for the break. This is advanced territory only. The water is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, sitting at 56°, so more than a spring suit is a good idea.

The afternoon sees the swell even bigger, with energy ramping up to a very strong 6722 and the swell height hitting 13ft. This is a washing machine, and it’s still just for the experienced crew.

Thursday morning, August 6th, sees the swell back down a touch to 10ft, but it's still a heavy, powerful 11-second groundswell. The wind goes light offshore, which is a big plus, but the sheer size is still limiting. This is still very much for the expert surfer. The afternoon drops to a more manageable 7ft, but the conditions get a bit messy with a cross-off wind, and the energy drops. It’s surfable but not the best.

Friday the 7th is where things get interesting. The morning brings a clean, lined-up wave. The swell is a smaller 3ft, but the period is a very long 18 seconds. This is proper groundswell, and it will be holding up well on the river mouth. With a light cross-off breeze, this is the standout window for a skilled surfer looking for a clean, powerful wave. The afternoon, however, turns to mush with an onshore wind and smaller swell.

The weekend is a bit of a let-down. Saturday (Aug 8) has a small, clean-ish 4ft swell in the morning, but the energy is dropping. It’s a classic “maybe” surf. Sunday (Aug 9) is smaller again, with only 3ft. It’s going to be a grovel for anything decent.

Then we hit a long, frustrating patch. From Monday, August 10th, through to the following week, the swell just dies. We're talking 2ft, 1ft, and even 1ft of lump. The energy readings are in the weak range (87, 36, 23). There are a couple of days with glassy conditions, like Tuesday morning the 11th, but the waves just won't be there. This is a solid 5-6 day stretch with next to nothing on offer. You’re better off doing a few laps in the pool.

There is a little pulse of energy around the 15th and 16th, but it's still small. The 16th (Sunday) has a 2ft SSE swell with a much longer period (17-19 seconds), and the wind is offshore, so it might give up a couple of clean little nuggets for the longboard. It’s promising, but keep your expectations in check.

The real potential for the next good stretch looks like the middle of the following week. The morning of Tuesday, August 18th sees the energy building again, but it’s the afternoon that’s key. A 7ft S swell arrives with a moderate offshore wind, and the energy is back up to a moderate 620. This looks like the best all-round conditions for a few days. The wave comment says “very good surf conditions.” This is the one to start planning for.

Wednesday the 19th is still solid, with an 8ft S swell in the morning and clean conditions, but it’s getting big again. The afternoon sees the wind pick up and rain move in, so get on it early. After that, the end of the forecast window fades back out.

So, to sum it up: Don’t bother with this week unless you’re a hero and the Thursday morning (Aug 6) or Friday morning (Aug 7) windows are for you. The next week is a complete write-off. The standout for the clean, quality surf looks like Tuesday afternoon, August 18th, and maybe Wednesday morning, August 19th, but it's a long way out, so treat it as promising but not set in stone.

Rusty.

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