Waipaoa River Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th: The weekend’s a bit of a write-off, to be honest. The river mouth is seeing a little bit of swell, but it’s pretty weak and the conditions aren’t there. Saturday afternoon has a bit of easterly breeze and the energy is just moderate (761). Water temp is sitting at 13°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want the hood and booties. Sunday morning cleans up a touch with a light cross-off breeze, but the swell drops right off. Not worth the paddle.

Monday 10th: The surf goes flat and the conditions are ordinary. Save your energy.

Tuesday 11th: There’s a bit of life in the morning but it's still small. The real story is Tuesday afternoon. The wind swings around to a cross-off, and the swell bumps up to 1.5m from the south with an 11-second period. The combined energy jumps to a solid (829), and it’s looking clean. This is the first real highlight of the week. The Waipaoa River (Gisborne) is a sandbar, so it’s not breaking straight like a point, but this kind of S swell with a decent period should set it up alright. It’s an advanced spot, and it’s inconsistent, so don’t expect it to be pumping non-stop, but the waves that do come through will be worth it.

Wednesday 12th to Friday 14th: The swell backs off and the wind gets messy. Thursday afternoon is a write-off with onshore junk. Friday morning though, there’s a bit of a bounce. The swell is 1.8m but from the NE with a short 7-second period, and it’s glassy. That’s a bit of a weird mix – decent height but poor shape. It might be lumpy and closed out. I’d give it a look, but don’t get your hopes up.

Saturday 15th to Monday 17th: The weekend is pretty poor with rain and bumpy conditions. Sunday afternoon sees a bump in size to 1.9m but the period is still short. The standout here is Monday 17th morning. The sky clears, and we get a great cross-off breeze with a 1.5m SSE swell and an 11-second period. The energy is strong (534) and it’s looking clean. This is another solid window. The river mouth should be showing some proper lines.

Tuesday 18th: The wind howls, and it’s a mess. Forget it.

Wednesday 19th: Here’s the big one. The swell pumps up to a solid 3.5m from the south with an 11-second period. The energy reading is massive (3952). But the finder file is clear: it’s too big for this break. This is only for the most experienced crew, and even then, it’s going to be a washing machine. The river mouth is going to be a turbulent, dangerous mess. If it’s too big for an advanced sandbar, it’s too big for almost everyone. This is a day for watching, not surfing.

Thursday 20th to Friday 21st: The swell drops but it’s still significant. Thursday is messy. Friday morning brings a 2.4m SSE swell with a very long 16-second period. That’s a proper groundswell. The energy is huge (3080). But a long period like that at a sandbar can be a double-edged sword. It might just wall up and close out. It’s a marginal call, but it’s still big. Only for experts.

Saturday 22nd onwards: This is where the magic happens. The big swell fades, and we get a couple of days of clean, manageable surf. Saturday 22nd looks like the pick of the whole run. The swell is a fun 1.3m from the SSE with a 12-second period, the wind is light and cross-off, and the energy is solid (482). It’s going to be clean and have some push. This is the one to circle on the calendar. Sunday 23rd looks similar, just a touch smaller with a bit more breeze, but still fun.

So, the long and short of it: the first week is mostly a grind with a couple of small windows on Tuesday and Monday. The second week brings a slab of swell that’s too big for this spot, but the weekend after that looks like the real deal. The river mouth is inconsistent at the best of times, so when it’s on, you gotta go.

Rusty.

Read more