The groyne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s break it down.

The next couple of weeks are a proper mixed bag. We’ve got a stretch of nothing much at the start, then a bit of a pulse mid-period, and then the real story unfolds in the second week—a run of strong, powerful surf that will have the crew on edge. The first week is mostly about waiting and watching; the second week is when it gets serious.

We start off at The groyne on Saturday the 1st. It’s pretty grim—only about 4ft of short-period wind swell out of the southeast, with a moderate cross-shore breeze chopping it up. The water is sitting at 68°F, which is a bit colder than usual for this time of year, so grab the booties if you’re sensitive. There’s not much to get excited about; the combined energy is weak at 146. Sunday the 2nd sees a touch more size, around 5ft, but it’s still messy and cross-onshore. Not worth your time.

Monday the 3rd drops right off—we’re looking at 2ft with a long period of 13 seconds, but it’s marginal and the wind is all over the place. That pattern of small, weak surf continues through to Wednesday the 5th. We get a couple of glassy windows—Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning are dead calm—but with only 2ft to 3ft on offer, it’s just a paddle-around session at best. The energy is weak, sitting between 106 and 120.

Thursday the 6th brings a bit of relief with a light cross-offshore wind and 3ft, but it’s still pretty ordinary. The rest of that first week—Friday the 7th through to Sunday the 9th—is mostly small and lumpy. There’s a clean, glassy morning on Sunday the 9th, but again, only 2ft. The break is fairly consistent, so it never goes completely flat, but it’s a lot of effort for not much reward.

Now, here’s where things start to shift. Monday the 10th sees the wind swing to the north, but it’s cross and blows at 15 mph, so it’s messy. Tuesday the 11th is better—we get a clean, cross-offshore wind and 3ft with the period stretching out to 9 seconds. The energy starts to build, around 228. By Wednesday the 12th morning, we’ve got a gentle offshore breeze and 2ft. It’s small, but clean. That’s about the best of the first week.

The real deal kicks off on Thursday the 13th. The swell jumps to 5ft with a fresh offshore wind at 19 mph. The energy is now moderate at 403. The waves are clean, but it’s still a bit raw. Then Friday the 14th... hold onto your board. We’re looking at 10ft of east-northeast swell with a period of 9 seconds. The combined energy is strong, hitting 2020 in the morning. The wind is cross-offshore and clean, and the afternoon session is the standout—light winds, 10ft faces, and conditions that are excellent for experienced surfers. This is the one to circle. For the groms and beginners, this is way over your head—over 8ft is expert territory.

Saturday the 15th is a step up again. The swell is pushing 16ft in the morning with a 11 second period. The energy is very strong at 5335. The wind is cross-offshore and clean, but this is serious, heavy surf. Only for the well-equipped and the brave. The afternoon sees it back off a touch to 15ft, but it’s still a beast.

Sunday the 16th stays big. 13ft to 16ft of east swell with a 12 second period. The energy is massive—over 10,000 in the afternoon. The wind is cross-onshore and it’s going to be a churning, lumpy mess. This is more like a spectacle than a surf. For a reef break like The groyne, that kind of size and power is dangerous. Honestly, with that much swell and wind, you might be better off watching from the cliff or thinking about kiting—this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

So, to wrap it up: the first six days are about as exciting as watching paint dry. The standout is unequivocally Friday the 14th afternoon—10ft, clean, and just perfect for those who know what they’re doing. Saturday the 15th morning is also promising for experts, but it’s a step into the deep end. Everything after that is too big and unruly. Keep your eyes on the 14th.

That’s the picture from here. Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

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