The groyne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a long, hard look at what’s coming our way for The Groyne over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you: this is a grim stretch for the most part. We’re looking at a solid 8-day stretch of poor surf conditions starting Wednesday, July 15, where the wind is just bullying the swell. The first real standout isn’t until Tuesday, July 28, but we’ll get to that.

Wednesday, July 15 through to Wednesday, July 22 is a write-off. The swell is there, but it’s a mess. On Wednesday morning, we’ve got a tiny 0.7 ft ESE swell with a 10-second period, but the wind is a cross-off, so the water is clean. The problem is the combined energy is weak – just 14 – so there’s nothing to ride. That afternoon, it jumps to 4 ft from the SE, but the period drops to a pathetic 5 seconds and the wind swings cross-on, making it choppy. From Thursday the 16th through Saturday the 18th, the swell builds hard, hitting 7 ft to 10 ft from the SSE/SE and the combined energy gets serious (421 to 1982), but the wind is fresh to strong cross or cross-onshore, churning up a lumpy, choppy mess. This is kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing. The wind is just too strong and in the wrong direction for any kind of quality. Sunday, July 19 is the ugliest – 10 ft to 12 ft of SE swell, but with a strong cross-onshore wind at 28 mph and a combined energy of 1942 – it’s just a stormy, dangerous paddle. Monday, July 20 sees the biggest swell of the period, 13 ft from the ESE on Monday morning, with a 11-second period (groundswell). The energy is massive (3197), but it’s a cross-onshore wind, so it’s lumpy and messy. That’s expert-only, and even then, it’s going to be a battle. The water temp is about 69°F, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year.

Thursday, July 23 and Friday, July 24 are still marginal. The swell drops to 5 ft to 5 ft from the E, with a 9-second period. The wind is light, so the chop is less, but the energy is still moderate (312 to 390). It’s rideable, but you’ll be scratching for a clean face. Not a standout.

Then, finally, Tuesday, July 28 is the one we’ve been waiting for. The morning session is the best of the entire 16-day run. We’ve got a 6 ft swell from the ESE, with a 7-second period. The wind is a light cross-off from the SSW at 9 mph, which means clean, glassy conditions. The combined energy is moderate at 507, so there’s some push. The report says “expect very good surf conditions” – this is the window. It won’t be a world-beater, but after two weeks of trash, it’ll feel like a gift. The break is a reef, so it should handle the SE swell direction well. Crowds are *sometimes* an issue here, so for Tuesday morning, get there early.

Beyond that, Wednesday, July 29 and Thursday, July 30 drop off again quickly. The swell fades to 3 ft and 2 ft, and the wind goes cross or cross-on, so it’s back to small, choppy conditions.

So, if you’re waiting for a window, pencil in Tuesday, July 28 (morning). That’s the only real standout. Everything else is a hard pass or a marginal gamble.

Rusty.

Read more