Stockton Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty checking in with a look at the waves on the way for our stretch of coast.

We’re looking at a real mixed bag over the next two and a half weeks, with some periods of solid swell but also some serious size that’ll shut the place down. The water temp is sitting at 66°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year.

The first real action kicks off Monday, July 6th, but it's a bit of a rough start. A big 10-foot SSE swell rolls in with 10-second period and a very strong 1548 combined wave energy. Light rain and a stiff 15 mph SSE wind have it cross-on and choppy. Honestly, it’s not worth paddling out; break conditions are poor.

Things clean up considerably on Tuesday the 7th, but the swell is still huge. We’re looking at 10-foot plus, with the wave energy climbing into the four-digit range. The wind swings to the SSW, and we get clean, cross-off conditions. The swell is just too big for this break though – expert territory only.

Finally, the size starts to ease back. Wednesday morning the 8th sees a still-chunky 8-foot SE swell, but the wind is a gentler 9 mph from the SSW, leaving it clean. Even so, it’s a powerful, solid wave. The size drops further into the 7-foot to 6-foot range over Thursday and Friday.

It’s on Friday the 10th that we get our first true standout. The swell has dropped to a much more manageable 6-foot from the SE with a 10-second period, and wave energy is still a moderate 597. Crucially, the wind goes offshore from the WSW in the morning at 9 mph. That’ll groom the faces to perfection. Expect very good, clean surf. The afternoon stays nice with light cross-off breezes. This is the window.

Saturday the 11th will still be fun for a beginners or longboard session as the swell fades to 4-foot, but it’s nothing special. Then we hit a long, flat spell. From Sunday the 12th right through to Tuesday the 14th, the swell drops right away to barely a ripple. We’re talking 1-foot with a combined energy of just 16. A couple of days of straight nothing, but that’s normal for this area and forecasts can change.

A new, weaker S swell tries to build on the 14th and 15th, with 4-foot and clean conditions, but it’s really just ordinary.

Now, hold on to your boardies, because we have a very distant, but massive, event on the cards. On Thursday the 16th a new SW swell arrives, and it builds into a very substantial 16-foot S groundswell by Friday the 17th. The wave energy for that Friday morning is a massive 15399 – that’s an enormous amount of power with a very long 14-second period. With a SE wind creating a cross-on breeze, the surface will be messy on top of already huge surf. This is not a paddle-in day. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Only the most experienced and heavily equipped charger would even think about it.

The swell slowly winds down over the weekend and into the next week. Saturday the 18th sees a cleaner 7-foot from SSE, with morning onshore wind. After a few days of clean cross-off wind on the 19th and 20th with 4-foot swell, another pulse of S swell hits on the 21st. The period is a ridiculously long 19 seconds, which is best suited for a point or reef break. At a beach break like this, it’ll likely be too straight and difficult.

So to wrap it up: Friday the 10th is the one to circle for clean, fun waves. Everything before that is too big or wind-affected, and everything after is either flat or an absolute monster.

Rusty, signing off.

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