Stockton Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

We’re looking at a pretty grim run ahead for Stockton Beach. The next couple of weeks are mostly a write-off, with a few faint glimmers that are more about the conditions than the waves. The water is sitting at 63°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year – you’ll be wanting that 4/3.

The first real chance to paddle out comes on Wednesday, August 19. It’s a tiny window: early morning, the wind goes dead calm, glassy conditions. Swell is a weak 4ft from the SE, period a short 7 seconds, and the combined energy is only 214 (weak). It’s the calmest and cleanest we’ll see for a while, but the waves are small and weak. It’s a true “any port in a storm” moment.

Then we hit a long drought. From the 20th through the 27th, the surf is either too small, too windy, or just plain messy. There’s a brief reprieve on the morning of Sunday, August 23, with a glassy 3ft swell from the S at 8 seconds (132 energy), but it’s still very ordinary.

The only standout in the entire outlook is Saturday, August 29. A huge pulse of S swell rolls in, hitting 16ft early in the morning. The period is a meaty 13 seconds, and the combined energy goes through the roof at 14754 (very strong). But here’s the catch – it’s too big for the break. The morning is a messy, choppy cross-on mess. The afternoon eases to 13ft, the wind swings cross-shore, and the forecaster says the swell is too big for the spot. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it’s a maybe. The direction is S, which is offshore for this break, but the sheer size will make it a washing machine at a beach break like Stockton. For a beach break, a long period S swell like this (13 seconds) tends to stand up too straight and close out fast. It’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle-surfing one.

The run ends on Sunday, August 30 with 12–8ft S swell, still too big, and wind onshore. Nothing to chase here.

The honest truth is, there’s no good surf on offer in this 16-day window. The only chance is a tiny, clean session on the 19th, and a massive, dangerous swell at the end of the month that’s better left to the tow crew and the kites. It’s one of those blank runs that’s normal for this area – forecasts can change, but right now, I’d be looking for a new hobby for a fortnight.

Rusty.

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