Stockton Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, straight up – the next 16 days at Stockton Beach is a mixed bag, and we’ve got a long, quiet gap in the middle before things get big. But there are a couple of windows worth paddling out for.

We kick off Saturday the 1st with a bit of life. Morning looks glassy with a light west wind and clean, 5ft swell out of the SSE. The water’s sitting at 64°, which is just a touch below average for this time of year – nothing wild, just a little nippier than normal. The combined swell energy is moderate (414). It’s a solid start, but nothing that’ll blow your mind. Afternoon turns to junk as the wind swings onshore, so make the most of the early session.

Sunday the 2nd is the real standout of the first week. The morning is firing with clean, cross-off conditions and a proper 5ft SSE groundswell pumping in at a long 13 seconds. The energy jumps up to 917 – moderate, but with that period it’ll have some serious push. This is the best you’ll see for a while, so get amongst it early. Afternoon gets chopped by a cross-on wind, so morning is the call.

Monday the 3rd holds onto some okay waves, 4ft and 3ft with clean cross-off winds, but the energy drops off fast (311 and 203). Surfable, but nothing special.

Then we hit a bit of a dry spell. From Tuesday the 4th right through to Wednesday the 12th, it’s mostly tiny, weak, or messy. There are a few small windows – like the Friday the 7th morning with a clean 6ft SSE swell (energy 487) – but it’s inconsistent and the quality drops off quick. Honestly, most of that stretch is best spent cleaning your gear or checking the forecast. It’s a solid week with no real recommendations.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting – and a bit rowdy. From Thursday the 13th onward, the swell really cranks up, but it’s mostly too big for this break. Thursday morning sees 8ft SE swell with offshore wind and clean conditions, but the forecast flags it as too big for Stockton Beach. Combined energy hits 791 – moderate to strong. Same story Thursday afternoon with 10ft SE swell (energy 1291), and Friday the 14th morning with 8ft ESE swell (energy 889). That’s big, powerful stuff. Unless you’re an expert on a big board or a tow-in rig, this is more of a spectacle than a session. The period is short (8 seconds), so it’s gonna be a lumpy, high-energy mess – not your classic clean point break wave. Honestly, with the wind and size, it looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, as the break can’t handle that much juice.

So, best bets: absolutely hit Sunday the 2nd morning for the most well-rounded, clean, quality swell. Saturday the 1st morning is a decent backup. The big stuff in the second week is for experts only, and even then, it’s a gamble. Keep an eye on updates, but for now, that’s the story.

Rusty.

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