Stockton Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for Stockton Beach.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a bit of a frustrating pattern. There’s actually some decent swell early on, but the wind and swell size are working against us for most of the coming days. The water temp is sitting right on 19.1° – that’s about average for this time of year, so nothing strange going on there.

The first real chance to get wet is Saturday morning, July 4th. We’ve got a clean 4ft south swell with a 12-second period, and a light offshore from the WNW. That’s a solid combo – clean lines, not too big, and the energy is moderate (392). This is your best bet for the whole outlook, no doubt. The swell direction is right in the sweet spot (SE optimum), and it’s a fairly consistent break. Just a heads up, it can get crowded here sometimes, but for a clean Saturday morning like that, it’s worth the paddle.

Saturday afternoon, the wind swings onshore and the swell drops. Forget it.

Sunday, July 5th, the swell pumps right up, but it’s bad news. We’re looking at 8ft to 10ft south swell, but with a short 9-second period and howling cross-shore winds at 30 km/h. The wave energy is huge – over 1117 and 1878 – but it’s a messy, lumpy mess. That size is really only for the experienced crew, and even then, the wind makes it ugly. Best to sit this one out.

Monday the 6th through to Thursday the 9th is a write-off. We’ve got solid 7ft to 10ft swell, but it’s constantly blown out by strong cross or cross-onshore winds, and the period stays short around 9-10 seconds. The energy numbers are massive (up to 4040), but for a beach break, that’s just a washing machine. Only a kite surfer would be having fun out there.

Now, a little glimmer of hope appears on Friday afternoon, July 10th. The swell drops to a clean 6.5ft from the SSE, and get this – the wind goes glassy. That’s right, flat calm. The period stretches to a nice 11 seconds, giving it some proper grunt. The energy is still strong (903), but the glassy conditions will make it look a million bucks. This is your second standout, but it’s a Friday arvo, and the swell might be a touch big for a casual surfer. Worth a look if you’ve got the skills.

After that, the surf slowly fades through the weekend and into the new week. Saturday the 11th offers a clean 5ft SE swell with light offshores – okay for a longboard or a mellow session, but nothing special. Sunday the 12th is down to 3ft and weak. Then we hit a real dry spell from Monday the 13th through to Wednesday the 15th. Swell drops to nothing – like, 0.5ft to 2ft – and the energy is pitiful (9 to 48). Don’t even bother. That’s nearly three days of flatness.

Things start to look promising again on Thursday the 16th, with a 4ft S swell returning, but the conditions are described as “marginal.” Not enough to get excited about. Friday the 17th is tiny and ordinary. Then, out of the blue, Saturday the 18th afternoon kicks up with a 7ft S swell and moderate energy (716). But again, the wind and tide comments warn it might be too big for this break – so treat that one with caution.

The real monster shows up on Sunday, July 19th. We’re talking a 15ft south swell, period of 11 seconds, and offshore winds from the WNW. The energy numbers are insane – 4970 and 4416. That is a serious, serious swell. But listen, 15ft is for experts only, and even then, on a beach break like Stockton, that size with a short-ish period will just close out and be dangerous. The wind is offshore early, which is clean, but it’s a beast. Only the chargers need apply.

So to wrap it up: Your best windows are Saturday morning July 4th for the clean, fun-sized waves, and Friday afternoon July 10th for the glassy, solid swell. The long-range stuff (that huge swell on the 19th) is promising but a long way off – keep an eye on the forecasts. There’s a real flat spell from the 13th to the 15th, so plan around that.

Stay safe out there.

Read more