Surf Forecasts:
Shelly Point surf forecast from 8 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 10 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 9s period, S swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 10 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 9s period, S swell with 661 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 9 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.4m), 16s period with SE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Shelly Point this week:
The surf forecast for Shelly Point over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.4m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 6s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Shelly Point in the next 16 days are 2.0m 9s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 10) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Wed 9th Sep) | 1.5ft (0.4m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Thu 10th Sep) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Thu 10th Sep) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Shelly Point over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here, let's break it down in feet and knots.
Looking at Shelly Point. It's an inconsistent point break, so we're on a bit of a roller coaster ride with the waiting game. Water temp is around 55°F, dead average for the season, nothing out of the ordinary.
The next week to ten days is mostly a washout. From Tuesday the 8th through to the middle of the next week, the swell is tiny—between 0.5ft and 2ft. Even though the wind is mostly offshore and the surface is clean, the wave energy is in the low three-digit range or less, so it's barely a ripple. It's a long stretch of poor conditions with just a couple of days where it's borderline surfable.
The only real highlight shows up on Thursday the 10th. The swell jumps to a clean 3ft to 3ft from the SSE, riding on a long 16-second period—that's proper groundswell. With a light offshore breeze from the W, it's going to be glassy. The energy hits 415 on Thursday morning, which is a solid, moderate push for this spot. This is the best on offer. It's not a big day, but for Shelly Point, that's perfect. It'll be well-shaped and clean. Expect a few people out, though, as it can get crowded when it's good.
After that, it drops off fast. Friday the 11th is back to 2ft, and the energy is fading. Saturday morning the 12th is glassy but flat at 1ft.
Then there's a long gap. Nothing of note until Sunday the 20th of September. That morning brings a short-period, weak windswell from the NE at 3ft, with energy around 100-110. The wind is light offshore, so it might be rideable, but it's a poor cousin to that groundswell from the 10th. Everything else after that is tiny and windy, with energy dropping back to double digits.
Bottom line: if you want a wave, make a plan for Thursday the 10th. That's the standout. The rest is a lot of staring at flat water.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Tue night. Very mild (max 19°C on Fri morning, min 6°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SW on Wed morning, light winds from the WSW by Fri morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 20°C on Sun afternoon, min 6°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Tue 8 | Wednesday 9 | Thursday 10 | Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 17 | SE 16 | SSE 19 | SSE 17 | SSE 18 | SSE 16 | SSE 16 | SSE 14 | SSE 14 | SSE 16 | SSE 16 | SSE 16 | SSE 15 | SSE 16 | SSE 12 | SSE 15 | SSE 10 | E 14 | NE 6 | SSE 13 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 28 | 63 | 143 | 261 | 661 | 407 | 314 | 136 | 118 | 146 | 99 | 98 | 87 | 99 | 27 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 18 | 17 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | off | off | off | off | off | off | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | off | glassy | on | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | off | off |
High Tide | 5:34PM1.28m | 6:58AM0.99m | 6:35PM1.25m | 7:43AM1.01m | 7:32PM1.21m | 8:25AM1.03m | 8:27PM1.16m | 9:06AM1.06m | 9:21PM1.10m | 9:46AM1.08m | 10:13PM1.04m | 10:26AM1.10m | 11:06PM0.98m | |||||||
Low Tide | 00:35AM0.23m | 12:18PM0.52m | 1:25AM0.23m | 1:17PM0.46m | 2:11AM0.26m | 2:14PM0.41m | 2:55AM0.31m | 3:09PM0.38m | 3:35AM0.38m | 4:03PM0.38m | 4:14AM0.45m | 4:56PM0.39m | ||||||||
 |  | |  |  | | | | | | | | |  |  | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — |
 | 5:49 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:51 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:53 | — | — | 5:54 | — |
mm | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 17 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 19 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 19 | 20 | 16 | 19 | 15 | 10 |
Feels °C | 9 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 2 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 17 | SE 16 | SSE 19 | SSE 17 | SSE 18 | SSE 16 | SSE 16 | SSE 14 | SSE 14 | SSE 16 | SSE 16 | SSE 16 | SSE 15 | SSE 16 | SSE 12 | NE 4 | NE 6 | NE 6 | NE 6 | SSE 13 |
| kJ | 28 | 63 | 143 | 261 | 655 | 407 | 314 | 136 | 118 | 146 | 99 | 98 | 87 | 99 | 27 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 17 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 7 | NE 6 | SSE 6 | SSE 6 | E 12 | E 10 | E 10 | E 17 | E 18 | SSE 8 | SSE 7 | SSE 7 | E 16 | — | SSE 16 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | E 14 | E 14 | NE 6 |
| kJ | 5 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 5 | — | 24 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 4 | 2 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 7 | S 7 | N 8 | E 13 | — | E 18 | — | E 9 | E 18 | E 15 | E 17 | E 16 | ENE 16 | E 15 | E 15 | SSE 15 | E 14 | SE 9 | SE 9 | E 13 |
| kJ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | — | 6 | — | 2 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | WSW 3 | SW 4 | SW 4 | S 9 | — | — | WNW 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 2 | NNW 2 | — | N 3 | WNW 2 | WSW 4 |
| kJ | — | 3 | 12 | 22 | 661 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 16 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 25 | 36 | 47 | 1576 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 61 | 0 | 25 | 25 | 41 | 25 | 557 | 555 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Tasmania | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Shelly Point Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Shelly Point provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Shelly Point can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Shelly Point surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Shelly Point) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Shelly Point may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in East Coast of Tasmania? If you are looking for accommodation near Shelly Point, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in East Coast of Tasmania, consider staying in Hobart which is 61 km (38 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Port Arthur which is 65 km (40 miles) away
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