Scarborough South Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk about Scarborough South Bay. I’ll level with ya – this is one of those outlooks where you’re gonna be spendin’ more time on the sand than in the water. The finder’s pretty quiet for the first week and a half, with hardly any sessions worth paddlin’ out for. The water’s sittin’ at 59°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s about the only thing that’s workin’ in our favour.

We kick off on Friday, July 10th with a tiny 1ft NNE swell, but the wind’s an ESE cross-on at 9 mph, and the energy’s weak (27). It’s just a messy, choppy scene. Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th are the same story – small, cross-on, nothin’ doin’. The swell tries to push a bit on Monday the 13th, with 4ft to 5ft NNE swell, period a short 7 seconds, but that cross-on wind from the NNE at 16 mph keeps it all chopped up. The energy’s gettin’ into moderate territory (173 to 191), but the quality’s just not there.

Tuesday the 14th through Wednesday the 15th, we’re stuck with that same pattern – moderate breezes, lumpy cross-chop, and swell that’s all over the place. Then on Thursday, July 16th, we get our first real glimpse of somethin’ decent. The morning shows a glassy 3ft E swell, with a light ESE breeze at 3 mph. The energy’s moderate (93) and the conditions are glassy. The waves are surfable, but it’s still pretty ordinary – not a standout, just a brief window of clean-ish water. That glassy window shuts quick, though, as the wind swings back onshore later.

From there, it’s a long, dry gap. Friday the 17th through to Monday, July 20th, the swell builds – we see 6ft on the 19th and even 7ft on the 20th – but the wind’s howlin’ from the north at 19 to 28 mph, with strong cross-off and cross conditions. The energy gets strong (562 on the 20th), but it’s all blown out, lumpy, and just plain ugly. This setup’s more interesting for kite-surfing than paddle-surfing, honestly.

Tuesday, July 21st gives us another little glassy window in the morning – a 4ft NNE swell with a light SW breeze at 3 mph, and the energy’s moderate (159). Conditions are glassy and the waves are surfable, but again, it’s very ordinary. Not a day to call in sick for.

The rest of the run, from the 22nd of July right through to the 25th, is a mix of tiny, weak swells and cross-shore breezes. The swell never really locks in, and the wind’s always got a bit of chop on it. The best you can say is that a few mornings have glassy or light wind, but the swell’s just too small (1ft to 3ft) and short-period to do much with.

So, the long and short of it: there’s no true standout session in this 16-day window. The best on offer is probably Thursday, July 16th’s morning glassy window, or maybe Tuesday, July 21st’s morning glassy window, but neither is gonna get the heart racin’. The consistent message is that the north-easterly wind just won’t let up, and the swell’s either too small or too blown out. For an area like this, a blank run happens, but it doesn’t tend to stay poor for long – forecasts can change. Keep an eye on the glassy mornings, but don’t get your hopes up too high.

Rusty.

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