Scarborough South Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about the next couple of weeks at Scarborough South Bay. I’ll be straight with you, it’s a rough patch for a while, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel if you’re patient.

First, let's talk about the water. It’s running at 62°, which is about average for this time of year. Nothing wild there.

For the first week, honestly, it’s a write-off. From Sunday the 9th right through to at least the 16th, we’re looking at tiny, weak swell. Most days are showing wave heights under 3 feet, with periods all over the shop but mostly short and gutless. The energy is weak, with many readings in the low double digits. We get a little bump on Tuesday the 11th with some cross-shore wind that will just chop it up, but it’s not worth getting wet for. Thursday the 13th shows a bit of a pulse, but a cross-shore wind will ruin any chance of it being clean. It’s a full seven days of nothing worth surfing.

Now, heading into the second week, things start to get interesting. The 19th of August, a Wednesday, sees a real change. We’ve got swell coming in at a cleaner 5 feet from the north, and while the period is still only around 7 seconds, the energy jumps dramatically to 190, and then 223 on the afternoon. The wind is offshore from the west, and clean. This is the first real window we get, and it looks like the best conditions of the whole run. It’s not a giant, but it will be rideable and clean.

Things back off a touch on the 20th and 21st before the real event arrives on the weekend of the 22nd and 23rd. Saturday the 22nd sees the swell jump up to 7 feet, then 7 feet in the afternoon, with energy readings of 429 and then 675. That’s serious power for this spot. Sunday the 23rd keeps it solid at 6 feet and 6 feet from the north-northeast. However, the wind is onshore and light, so it’s going to be a bit lumpy. This is big enough that it’s for experienced surfers only. This is a long-range call, so treat it as promising but not certain. It’s the standout window, no doubt.

One thing to note on the 22nd and 23rd, the swell is over 7 feet, and the break is a beach and point setup. With that onshore wind and that size, this could get messy. Honestly, for anyone on a paddle board, those days might be better spent watching, but for a kite, it could be a riot.

For the best wave of the period, I’m looking at the Wednesday morning, the 19th. It’s the cleanest and most manageable of the solid swell, and the offshore wind will make it glassy.

That big weekend pulse on the 22nd and 23rd looks like the most powerful, but the wind isn't doing us any favors. It’s a promising outlook for the second week, but the first week is a total dud. Keep your board waxed and wait it out.

Rusty.

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