Scarborough South Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this is a tough one. The next 16 days are looking pretty grim around here. We’ve got a solid run of poor surf conditions with nothing rideable on the horizon for quite a while, so don’t bother checking the cams every five minutes.

Right now, starting Saturday the 18th, we’ve got a bumpy, lumpy mess. The swell is coming from the NNE at 6 ft, but with a short period of 8 seconds and a fresh 19 mph crosswind from the north, it’s just a chop-fest. The combined wave energy is moderate at best (336), but it’s all junk. Water temp is sitting at 60°, which is about average for this time of year, but you won’t care because you won’t be in the water.

Sunday the 19th is a bit of a tease. The swell actually bumps up to 7 ft from the NNE, with a slightly longer period of 9 seconds, giving us a solid (775) combined energy reading. That’s a proper amount of water moving. But the wind is still a messy cross-shore, and it’s all lumpy. At over 7 ft, this is expert-only territory even if it were clean, but it’s not. For the average surfer, it’s a hard pass.

Monday the 20th through Wednesday the 22nd sees the swell slowly drop from 5 ft down to 3 ft, all with short periods (7-8 seconds) and cross-onshore winds. It’s just choppy, weak, and ugly. The wave energy drops from moderate (262) down to weak (105). Nothing to get excited about.

Thursday the 23rd offers a little spike – 5 ft from the NNE, 8 seconds, with a light cross-onshore breeze in the morning. The energy is moderate (266). It’s still poor surf conditions, but that morning window might be the least terrible of the whole run. The wind is light, which helps, but the quality is still poor.

Then we hit a long, flat spell. From Friday the 24th onwards, the swell just falls off a cliff. By Friday afternoon, we have 2 ft with a flat 7-second period and a glassy wind. It’s clean, but it’s tiny. From Saturday the 25th through to Sunday the 2nd of August, the swell is almost non-existent, mostly 0.3 ft to 2 ft with periods of 4 to 7 seconds. The combined energy is in the single digits or low double digits – basically a puddle. The wind does go offshore for a good stretch, cleaning things up, but there’s no wave to clean up. It’s a long, flat, frustrating gap of about 10 days with no real surf.

The one bright spot? The offshore winds from the 25th to the 2nd of August are consistent and clean. If you’re a kite surfer, the setup on the flat water might be more interesting than for paddle surfing. For us, it’s a waiting game.

So, the brutal truth is: there is no true standout in this 16-day window. The best you can hope for is a brief, marginal session on Thursday the 23rd morning if you’re desperate. The rest of the time, you’re better off waxing your board and waiting for a better forecast. It tends not to stay this poor for long, and forecasts can change, but for now, it’s a solid blank.

Rusty.

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