Scarborough South Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let's be straight with you – we’ve got a pretty bleak run coming up for Scarborough South Bay. The first break of real action is a long way off, so you're gonna need some patience. The water is sitting at a warm 61°, which is a touch warmer than normal for the time of year.

Looking at the full 16-day window, we’re staring down the barrel of a massive dry spell. For the best part of two weeks, from Sunday 26 July right through to Saturday 8 August, it’s essentially a flat, lifeless zone. The swell is tiny – barely a ripple most days – and even when it’s clean, there’s just no push. You’ll see some days with a bit of wind protection, like Tuesday the 28th with clean offshore breezes, but the swell is only 2-2ft. It just doesn’t have the grunt. The combined wave energy is weak, hardly ever cracking triple digits. Honestly, for paddle surfing, you can forget it. It’s the kind of setup that looks way more interesting for a kite than a surfboard.

Finally, around the second weekend of August, we see some life. Sunday the 9th starts to show some potential. The morning brings a 4ft easterly swell, but the period is a short 5 seconds, so it'll be a bit choppy and weak, and the energy is still modest. That afternoon, things get interesting in a dangerous way. An 8ft ENE swell rolls in, and the combined energy jumps up to strong. That’s a lot of power, but the period is only 7 seconds – short-period, wind-driven stuff. This isn’t gonna be a clean, lined-up groundswell. It’s going to be a messy, powerful wall of water. For the experienced guys only, and even then, it'll be a grinder.

The real standout, the one to circle on your calendar, is Monday morning, 10 August. We get a solid 6ft swell from the NNE with an 8-second period. The combined energy is a very solid, so there’s real power behind it. Best of all, the wind is light and cross-offshore. That means clean, groomed conditions. It's still a bit of a brute, being over 5ft, so it’s not for beginners, but for the experienced crew, this is the window. That South Bay bowl setup should have some punchy, workable waves. Just a heads up, this break can get crowded, and on a Monday morning with this quality, expect some company in the water.

After that, the swell drops off again quickly, fading back into slop by the afternoon. So, you’ve got a long wait, but that Monday morning is your shot. Keep your eyes on the charts, but I wouldn’t hold my breath until then.

Rusty

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