Scarborough South Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, it’s Rusty here, and I’ve gotta be straight with you – this outlook for Scarborough South Bay is a frustrating one. We’re looking at a long, long dry spell before anything even remotely worth paddling out for shows up.

Right now, through the middle of July, it’s a total write-off. The water is currently sitting at a balmy 61°, which is a solid 4° warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s a notable jump, but it doesn’t make up for the flat, choppy mess we’ve got. From Sunday the 12th all the way through to the morning of Thursday the 23rd, the wave energy is pathetic, with combined swell energy readings mostly in the double digits (like 67, 45, 5), and the highest barely scraping 175. The swell is tiny – mostly under 5 ft – coming from the NE or NNE, with short, weak periods of 5 to 7 seconds. And the wind? It’s a constant cross-onshore breeze, 15 to 30 km/h, keeping the surface choppy and lumpy. You’d be fighting an uphill battle for nothing. Even the glassy mornings on the 21st and 22nd are only showing 1 ft to 2 ft of swell – not enough to ride.

Then things finally change. On Thursday the 23rd of July, a much bigger north swell rolls in. It jumps to 7 ft in the morning (combined energy 466) and holds at 6 ft in the afternoon (energy 443). The period stretches to 8 seconds, which is okay. But the wind is still a messy cross-shore or onshore breeze at 20 km/h, so the forecast still calls it poor.

The real standout – and the only time I’d even consider it – is Friday the 24th of July. The swell builds to a solid 7 ft to 8 ft from the north (optimum direction for this break), with a period of 9 seconds. But more importantly, the wind finally plays ball. Friday morning sees a cross-offshore breeze from the west at 20 km/h, cleaning it up nicely. Then Friday afternoon is the golden window: the wind swings to a light offshore from the WSW at just 5 km/h. The wave energy ramps up to 836, and the forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s the one to circle. This is a beach and point setup (Scarborough South Bay), and with a north swell over 7 ft, it’s going to be sizable – too big for beginners, but a proper challenge for experienced surfers. The point should handle that north swell well.

But don’t get too excited for the days after. Saturday the 25th sees the wind shift back to a nasty cross-onshore from the north at 30-35 km/h, turning that 6 ft swell into a lumpy, blown-out mess. The rest of the outlook fades back into small, weak surf with poor wind.

So, the call: suffer through the first 11 days of nothing. The one and only highlight is Friday the 24th of July, especially the afternoon. Get on it if you can, because the rest of this 16-day run is a bust.

- Rusty

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