Saint Annes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Saint Annes has cooking for us over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, the outlook is a tough one. There is swell energy coming through – I’m seeing combined energy values into the thousands, which is moderate to strong – but the wind and conditions just aren't playing ball. For the next week and a half, it's pretty much a write-off for decent surf. The swell is there, but the wind is messy, mostly cross or cross-onshore, and it’s leaving the wave face chopped up and lumpy. There are a few mornings that scrape in as 'marginal', but nothing I’d be rushing out the door for. You'll see a gap of poor conditions stretching from now right through until around August 2nd, with only the occasional glimmer.

Let's break it down. Saturday morning, July 25th, we have a 3 ft SW groundswell rolling in with a very long 21-second period. That’s a long period groundswell, which for a reef break like Saint Annes could set up some nice lines, but the wind is a cross-shore from the WNW at 15 km/h, giving us a slight cross-chop. The combined energy is a solid 1149, so there’s power there, but it’s just messy. Water temp is 60°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year. The best you can say is it’s marginal. That’s your only real shot to get wet on Saturday, and even then, it’s a low confidence session.

Sunday through to the end of the month is a real struggle. We see the swell height bobbling between 3 ft and 4 ft but the period drops off between 16 and 19 seconds, and that WNW cross-wind sticks around, bumping things up from 15 km/h to 25 km/h. Combined energy values stay high enough, like 1166 on Sunday afternoon, but the wave comment is repeatedly “poor surf conditions.” The break itself is a sheltered reef, which could handle a bigger swell, but with this constant cross-chop, it’s going to look ugly.

Come July 31st, we get a shift. On Friday morning, the swell drops right back to 3 ft from the SSW on a 14-second period. Combined energy falls to 424. Still cross-onshore. Then on Friday afternoon it jumps up to 5 ft from the NW, but the period crashes to 8 seconds (short period wind swell), and the wind is cross-onshore at 15 km/h making it choppy. Not the one.

The first few days of August bring slightly more size. On August 2nd, Sunday afternoon, we have a 7 ft NW swell with a 9-second period. The combined energy jumps to 1384, so there’s proper power there, but the wind is still a cross-shore. It’s still scored as marginal. For a reef break, a long-period groundswell is what you want, and this is short-period stuff, so it’s going to be fat and crumbly. For the more experienced surfers, it might offer a few sections, but for most, it’ll be a frustrating one.

There’s no genuine standout session in this whole forecast. If I had to point to one session that *might* be the best of a bad bunch, it would be the morning of August 3rd (Monday). You’ve got a 5 ft WNW swell, a period of 10 seconds, light cross-onshore wind (10 km/h) and a combined energy of 493. It’s still scored as marginal. The water temp by then isn't given, but earlier it was a bit cool. For a sheltered reef, that 5 ft at 10 seconds might just line up and give you a few clean walls if the tide plays ball, but don’t bank on it.

After August 4th, the swell dies completely. We’re looking at 1 ft to 3 ft of weak, wind-affected leftovers through to the 9th. The combined energy drops to the low 200s to 400s. It’s flat and messy.

So, in short, this 16-day window is a slow period for Saint Annes. The swell direction from the SW and SSW early on is promising, but the constant cross and cross-onshore winds ruin the surface. The very long period swell on the 25th is a tease. There is no clean, offshore session to get excited about. This is a classic case where the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing on the days with size and cross-wind. It tends not to stay poor for long around here, but this run is a blank one. Forecasts can change, but right now, keep the board in the bag.

Rusty.

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