Saint Annes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here.

Well, let's be straight with you – this 16-day window for Saint Annes is a tough one. There's a huge gap of poor surf conditions right off the bat. The first real glimmer of anything rideable doesn't show up until Wednesday morning the 18th of September, and even then it's pretty marginal. From the 16th through to the 21st, most of the readings are "poor surf conditions" with scores of zero. It's not until Tuesday the 22nd of September that things start to look a little more promising.

Looking at the overall pattern, we've got a very long-period groundswell coming through for the first week, but it's small and the wind is all wrong. That swell is mostly from the SW with periods hitting 16 to 19 seconds – that's a proper groundswell with lots of energy, but for a reef break like Saint Annes that needs a clean offshore wind, the constant cross-onshore breeze is just chopping it to bits. The combined swell energy is moderate, often in the 400s and 500s (456, 707, 742) but it's all wasted.

Wednesday the 18th of September morning actually gets a score of 1. You've got a 0.6m swell (about 2ft) from the SW with a 19-second period – a very long period groundswell – and only a light cross-onshore breeze. The combined energy is 408 (moderate). This is the first time the surf is described as "marginal" instead of "poor". It's small, but with that long period, it could push through a bit better on the reef. It’s not a standout, but it's the first window.

The best bet across the entire period lands on Saturday the 26th of September afternoon. We finally see a change in the swell direction to WNW, with the swell height jumping to 1.6m (about 5ft) and a shorter period of 10 seconds. The combined energy is a strong 757 (moderate to strong energy). The wind is cross-shore from the WNW at 15 km/h (about 9 mph), described as a gentle cross-shore with slight cross-chop. It's still not clean, offshore glass, but it's the biggest, most energetic swell in the whole run, and it's toward the end of the period. For a sheltered reef that likes WNW swell, this is your one chance at something with a bit of punch, but that cross-chop will likely make it a bit messy. This is for experienced surfers only – 5ft is fine, but with the chop, it won't be a beginner wave.

The rest of the forecast into the first day of October is more of the same – small, poor, or marginal. The onshore and cross-onshore winds are persistent. There is one moment on the 22nd of September morning where the wind goes offshore from the SW at just 5 km/h (about 3 mph), with a score of 1, but the swell is still only 0.8m (about 3ft). That might be worth a dawny if you're desperate.

Overall, this is a lean run. There are no standouts that will light up the beach. The only one to circle is that Saturday the 26th of September afternoon – the biggest swell of the run, but expect it to be a bit bumpy. For the rest, it's a waiting game.

Rusty.

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