Rivermouth_Wailuku Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you—this stretch is a tough one. We’re looking at Rivermouth_Wailuku, and for the first week or so, it’s pretty much a write-off. The wind is a constant problem, mostly cross-onshore from the ENE, keeping things choppy and messy. The swell is there, but it’s just not working with us. The water temp is sitting at 80°, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

From Tuesday 21 July through to the end of that first week, we’ve got poor surf conditions day after day. The swell height fluctuates between 2 ft and 6 ft, but with that onshore wind, it’s all chop. The combined wave energy is moderate, ranging from 229 to 431, but it’s not doing us any favours. For a beginner, the bigger days over 5 ft might be a bit much, but honestly, the quality is so poor it’s not worth paddling out for anyone.

We hit a bit of a lull, but then things start to look a little more interesting around Monday 27 July. The swell picks up, and we’re seeing some proper groundswell with a long period over 14 seconds, coming from the east. The wave energy jumps way up—into the strong range, like 1313 on Monday morning. The problem is that the wind is still cross-on, so it’s not clean. The forecasts are "marginal," and I’d only give it a 1 or 2 out of 10 for quality. The swell is getting up to 6 ft, which is getting into expert territory, but with that wind, it’s a gamble.

The best chance we’ve got in this whole window is shaping up for Tuesday 28 July. The morning has a light breeze from the NE, and the swell is a solid 6 ft from the east, with a 13-second period. The combined energy is a whopping 1270. The wind is actually "on" instead of cross-on, which is a big deal. This is the standout. It’s still not perfect, but it’s the best we’ll see. The break is a reef, so that long-period groundswell should wrap in nicely, with good shape and energy. Keep in mind that Rivermouth_Wailuku can get crowded, so you’ll have company. This is the one to aim for.

After that, Wednesday 29 July and Thursday 30 July still have some decent swell—around 6 ft to 6 ft—but the wind is back to being cross-on or light and variable. The energy is still strong, but the quality drops off. By Friday 31 July, we’re back to poor, choppy conditions with the wind picking up again.

The second week, from 1 August onwards, is a real mixed bag. The swell drops off, and the wind is mostly cross-on. There’s a small pulse of long-period swell on 3 August, with 3 ft and a 15-second period, but it’s weak and the wind is messy. It’s honestly not worth getting excited about. The energy is moderate at best, but the conditions are just not there.

So, bottom line: the whole 16-day window is a struggle. The only real highlight is Tuesday 28 July. If you’re keen, that’s your day. Otherwise, it’s a lot of waiting and watching the wind blow.

Rusty.

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