Rivermouth_Wailuku Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this stretch of forecasts has me feeling a bit flat. The swell is there, but the wind is just wrecking it for us. We’ve got a solid run of waves on the way, but the conditions are going to be a real battle.

The main problem is that persistent cross-onshore wind. It’s blowing from the ENE and NE for most of the period, and that’s just making a mess of things. The surf will be bumpy and choppy, so you’ll be fighting the wind more than riding the wave. The combined swell energy is moderate to strong, with readings in the 500s, 600s, and even reaching 861 (moderate wave energy) on Saturday, but that energy is all getting blown apart.

Let’s look at Rivermouth_Wailuku. It’s a reef break, fairly consistent, and it’s exposed to the swell. The swell is coming from the E and ENE, which is a bit off from its optimum direction of NNE. The water temperature is a warm 80°, which is about average for this time of year, so you won’t need a thick wetsuit.

The first few days, from Friday the 31st of July through the weekend, the swell is solid, around 6 ft to 7 ft. But the wind is a moderate 12 to 16 mph cross-onshore, and the period is short at 8 seconds. The surf quality is just poor. It’s going to be a struggle.

Monday the 3rd and Tuesday the 4th of August are a little better. The wind drops to a lighter breeze on Monday, with the swell around 5 ft, and the period stretches to 11 seconds on Tuesday morning. The combined energy still sits at 509 (moderate wave energy). That Tuesday morning might be the best chance of the whole run, but it’s still a “marginal” call because of the tide. The wind is still cross-on, so it won’t be glassy.

After that, it’s a long, slow decline. From Wednesday the 5th of August right through to the end of the 16-day window, the swell stays small and weak, between 2 ft and 5 ft, with the same cross-onshore wind. The period drops to 6 or 7 seconds, and the combined energy plummets, dipping into the 80s (weak wave energy) by the 15th of August. It’s just not worth paddling out for.

So, there’s no standout session here. The whole forecast is a write-off for quality surf. If you’re desperate, Tuesday the 4th of August morning is the best of a bad bunch, but don’t expect much. The reef at Rivermouth_Wailuku might offer some shape, but the wind is against us. For the most part, this looks more like a session for the kite surfers than for us paddle surfers.

- Rusty

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