Rivermouth_Wailuku Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks. Rusty here, looking at a rough stretch ahead for us. It’s a tough one to call, but I’ll break it down for you straight.

We’re looking at Rivermouth_Wailuku, and I gotta be honest, the next couple of weeks are not shaping up to be anything special. The water temperature is sitting at 80°, which is about average for this time of year, so no weird stuff there. But the surf, well, it’s a long haul of poor conditions.

Starting off this Sunday afternoon, we’ve got a 4ft east swell with a 15-second period. That’s a long period groundswell, which usually means quality, but the wind is a stiff 12 mph cross-onshore from the NE, making it choppy. The combined energy is 928 – moderate – but it’s just messy. This carries into Monday morning with a similar story: 5ft east swell, 14-second period, and the same frustrating cross-onshore wind. Monday afternoon gets worse – a risk of thunderstorms, winds picking up to 16 mph, and the swell jumps to 6ft, but it’s onshore junk. The energy jumps to 1450, but it’s a total write-off for paddling.

Tuesday morning shows a 8ft east swell, but that’s too much for most and the wind is still onshore from the NNE at 12 mph. That’s 1957 on the energy scale – strong – but useless for us. The afternoon is even bigger at 8ft from the ENE, with the same onshore wind. That’s expert-only territory, and even then, it’ll be a washing machine.

Wednesday morning is the first glimmer of hope. We get a 5ft swell from the NE with a short 9-second period, and the wind drops right out to a light 3 mph from the ESE, giving us a light cross-shore. That’s clean. The energy is a paltry 408, but at least it’s not blown out. The afternoon is still cross-shore at 9 mph with 6ft, but it gets bumpy again.

From Wednesday night all the way through to the end of the forecast on Monday the 10th of August, it’s a grim run. Constant cross-onshore winds from the ENE, mostly 9 to 16 mph, with swell heights bouncing between 3ft and 7ft, and periods dropping to a dismal 5 to 8 seconds. That’s weak, short-period windswell, and the combined energy never really gets beyond moderate, except for a few days where it ticks into the 600-900 range. Every single report says the same thing: poor surf conditions. The break here is a reef setup, but with that constant onshore angle, it’s just not working.

There’s a small window on Wednesday the 29th of July morning where it’s rideable if you’re desperate – light cross-shore wind, 5ft, and a short period. It’s the *only* time it’s not actively terrible. Even then, it’s only a 1 out of 10 chance of anything good.

Nothing in this whole 16-day stretch is a standout. The best you can hope for is a few hours of clean but weak surf on Wednesday morning the 29th of July. After that, it’s a solid week and a half of no recommendations at all. The swell direction is all over the place – E, ENE, NE – and the optimum for this spot is NNE, so we’re never really getting the right angle.

Forget the board. If you’ve got a kite, the constant cross-onshore wind and 5ft to 8ft swell from Tuesday the 28th into the first week of August might be worth a look, but for paddle surfing, this is a desert.

Rusty.

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