Rio Chico Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what’s cooking for Rio Chico over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, I’ll be straight with you – this forecast is a bit of a bummer. We’re looking at a solid stretch of days ahead with only marginal waves and, more often than not, poor surf conditions. While there’s a constant supply of long-period, SW groundswell, the direction is cross-on or onshore for most of the window, which is just going to keep things messy. The first genuine session that’s even worth paddling out for doesn't show up until Thursday the 10th of September.

That Thursday morning, we’ve got a small, clean-ish window. Swell is coming in at 4ft from the SW with a long period of 16 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy, and with the combined energy reading moderate (650), there’s some push behind it. Winds are light from the WSW, going onshore, but it’ll be a bit of a gamble with the tides. By the afternoon the wind swings more offshore (WSW at 6 mph), and the wave shape could clean up nicely. This is a long-period SW groundswell, which really suits a point break like Rio Chico, so it should wrap in with some nice lines for the advanced crew.

For the best bet of the whole period, you’re looking at Friday the 11th of September afternoon. It won’t be big – 3ft from the WSW – but that light 6 mph offshore wind from the same direction is going to make for some glassy, clean conditions. The period drops a bit to 14 seconds, but it’s still decent groundswell. This is the standout window: the combo of that offshore breeze and a point break means you’ll get some peelers with nobody hassling you too much. Crowds are only “sometimes” here, so you might actually get a few waves to yourself.

The water temp is sitting at a very unusual 79°, which is 9° above the norm for this time of year. Feels like a warm bath out there, so you can ditch the wetsuit if you’ve got one.

After that Friday high point, we slide back into a long, flat spell of poor surf. From the 12th of September right through to the 24th of September, it’s all cross-on winds, choppy surfaces, and small, weak energy (combined energy readings dropping below 300 at times). There’s a brief moment on Sunday the 20th of September morning with a tiny 2ft from the SW and light onshore wind, but the period has dropped to 11 seconds and the energy is weak – really nothing to get excited about. The rest is just blown-out, knee-high dribble.

So, to sum it up: if you’re keen, make a plan for Friday the 11th of September afternoon. It’s your only real shot at a clean wave in this entire 16-day span. The rest is a write-off for paddle surfing, and honestly, with the constant cross-shore wind, this stretch might be more interesting for the kite crowd than us wave-chasers.

Stay patient, the ocean will turn again.
Rusty.

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