Rio Chico Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s see what’s cookin’ for the next little while.

We’re staring down a pretty long stretch of weak, inconsistent surf for the first week and a half. The first decent swell is a long-period groundswell that shows up around the 24th, but it’s not a clean winner. The wind is a constant sideshore, keeping it a bit messy. The real standout window, if you’ve got the patience, looks like the very end of the month and into August, but it’s still a marginal call.

The main break in the frame is Rio Chico, a point break that’s very consistent and exposed to the SW. For a spot that likes a good swell, it’s been a frustrating start. Right through from Friday 17th July to Sunday 19th, there’s barely a pulse. Swell heights are just 2 ft to 3 ft, period around 12-13 seconds, and the wind is a gentle cross-onshore from the SSW. The combined wave energy is weak, sitting between 184 and 293. It’s a poor surf setup, small and choppy. Not worth gettin’ wet for.

The next week (Monday 20th to Wednesday 22nd) is only slightly better. Swell nudges up a touch to 2 ft to 3 ft, with a bit more period (14 seconds on the 20th). The combined energy gets into the moderate range, hitting 355 on Monday morning, but the wind is still that light cross-onshore breeze. The call is still marginal at best. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, nothin’ to write home about.

Then we get a shift. Thursday 23rd July morning brings a 4 ft swell from the SW with a short period of only 7 seconds, which is sloppy, but the wind is an onshore from the WSW at 6 mph. The afternoon sees a better period of 11 seconds but the energy climbs to 475. Still, the comment is “poor surf conditions” so don’t get your hopes up.

Now, the real talkin’ point starts on Friday 24th July. A very long-period groundswell starts to fill in. The swell is 2 ft from the SW with a period of a whopping 21 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell, but it’s a bit of a double-edged sword. The combined wave energy is strong at 681. The wind is still a light cross-onshore, so it’s not perfectly clean. For a point break like Rio Chico, that long period can produce some really nice, lined-up waves, but it’s still a marginal forecast. The morning of the 24th is the best of the early options, but it’s not a standout.

The weekend of the 25th and 26th keeps the long-period pulse (19-17 seconds) with swell around 3 ft to 4 ft. The combined energy stays strong, hitting 742 on Saturday morning and 975 on Sunday morning. The wind is light, which is a plus, but it’s still cross-onshore. The 26th afternoon sees a nice 4 ft at 20 seconds with an onshore wind, but it’s not glassy. The best of the bunch is the 27th Monday morning, when the swell is 3 ft at 19 seconds, with combined energy of 1057, a strong level. The wind is still a gentle cross-onshore, but the wave quality is marginal.

The second week, from 28th July into August, the period drops off to 15-13 seconds, and the energy falls back to moderate levels (483 down to 229). The sea breeze pattern keeps things cross-onshore. It’s not a complete flat spell, but it’s a slow, inconsistent fade.

If you’re a patient surfer, the best chance for a decent wave is the morning of Friday 24th July and the morning of Monday 27th July. The swell is there, the energy is there, but you’ll be dealin’ with a bit of chop. For a beginner, these swells are small enough (under 5 ft) to be safe, but the period is long, so the sets will be more powerful and spaced out. For a pro, it’s a fun, long-period point break wave, but the wind is just not doin’ us any favors.

Bottom line: It’s a long, slow run with a couple of promising but not perfect days. The water is about average for the time of year, and the crowds are possible at Rio Chico, but with the marginal conditions, it’s not gonna be a circus.

Rusty.

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