Rio Chico Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks. Rusty here, breaking down the next 16 days at Rio Chico. I’m not gonna sugarcoat it—this is a tough stretch. This is a very consistent, exposed point break for the advanced crew, but the forecast is a long story of frustration before we see a little light.

The pattern starts quiet and stays that way for a long time. From Saturday the 11th all the way through Sunday the 19th, there’s a big gap with nothing worth paddling out for. Swell is tiny, mostly 2 ft to 3 ft, with weak combined energy that rarely gets out of the 200s (topping out around 372 in the early days). The wind is a constant problem—cross-on and onshore, keeping things rough and choppy. It’s a total washout for paddle surfing. Honestly, this setup looks more fun for a kite than a surfboard. That’s a solid 8-day gap with no real recommendations.

Things start to shift around Monday the 20th. We see a noticeable bump. The morning of the 20th has 3 ft from the WSW, but the afternoon is the one that gets your attention: 4 ft from the SW, with the combined energy jumping up to 589 (moderate wave energy). The period is a solid 14 seconds, which is proper groundswell. The wind is a gentle cross-on, so it’s a bit textured, but it’s a big step up from the previous week. This is the first time things look interesting.

The real standout, though, is Tuesday the 21st morning. That’s your best bet. The swell is 3 ft from the SW, with a 13-second period, and the combined energy is a strong 497. The wind switches to onshore, and it’s a light breeze—clean and glassy. For a point break like Rio Chico, that’s a huge plus. The waves will be well-shaped, with long gaps between sets making it easier to get out. Water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing out of the ordinary.

After that, the swell sticks around for a few days but never hits the same quality. The 22nd and 23rd have some size (up to 4 ft), but winds stay cross-on and the quality drops. Towards the end of the window, the swell fades and the periods get weirdly long—20 seconds plus. That’s very long-period groundswell, which can make a point break break too straight.

So, if you’re an advanced surfer and you’ve got patience, the real window is Monday the 20th through Tuesday the 21st. The Tuesday morning session is the true standout: clean, glassy, and a solid 3 ft of SW groundswell. It’s not massive, but it’s the cleanest and most surfable it’s going to get. The rest of the two weeks is a waiting game.

Rusty.

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