Newcastle Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Looks like we’re in for a bit of a mixed bag at Newcastle Beach over the next couple of weeks. The pattern starts off pretty average, with a few small windows of clean surf, but nothing to get too excited about early on. The standout sessions come later, with the best of the lot shaping up for Friday the 21st and Saturday the 22nd.

Alright, let’s kick things off. Sunday the 9th is a write-off. We’ve got a tiny 2ft easterly swell with weak energy (92) and while the wind is light and offshore, it’s just too small and ordinary to bother with. Monday the 10th sees a jump in swell to 5ft from the ENE, and the combined energy climbs to 303, which is moderate. But here’s the thing – the wind is howling out of the NW at 25 mph. Yeah, it’s offshore, but it’s so strong it’ll be a nightmare to paddle into. Not worth it unless you’re after a fight.

Tuesday the 11th drops right back to 2ft from the east with weak energy (53 to 64). The morning is a no-go, but the afternoon has a moderate offshore breeze and clean conditions. Still, that swell is tiny. Wednesday the 12th is similar – small swell, this time 2ft to 3ft from the south with a period of 11 seconds. That longer period means it’s a groundswell, but at that size it’s barely breaking. The afternoon gets a bit of cross-offshore wind, but still not great.

Thursday the 13th is a no-go. Swell jumps to 5ft to 5ft from the SSW and south, with moderate energy (370 to 419), but the wind is cross-shore and then cross-onshore, making it choppy and messy. Friday the 14th is where things start looking up. The morning session is the first real highlight – we’ve got 5ft from the south, period of 8 seconds, moderate energy (275), and glassy conditions. That’s clean, rideable surf. The wind is almost nothing at 3 mph from the WNW. This is your best bet for the early part of the forecast. The afternoon gets choppy again with a cross-onshore breeze.

Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th are both poor – small, messy swell with onshore or cross-onshore winds. Monday the 17th through to Wednesday the 19th stay average. The swell builds to 5ft from the ESE by Tuesday and Wednesday, with energy hitting 625 on Wednesday morning, but the wind is onshore from the ESE or SSE, so it’s choppy and ugly. Not surfable.

Now, here’s where it gets good. Thursday the 20th is still marginal – 5ft to 5ft from the east, with light cross-shore winds in the morning. But the real standout is Friday the 21st. Morning session: 4ft from the east, period 9 seconds, combined energy of 297, and light offshore wind from the NNW at 6 mph. That’s clean, fun-sized surf. This is your pick for the whole outlook.

Saturday the 22nd is another ripper. Afternoon session: 5ft from the east, period 10 seconds, energy of 382, and near-glass with just 3 mph from the WSW. Clean, offshore-influenced, and solid. The morning is also decent, with a cross-offshore breeze. Two great days in a row.

Sunday the 23rd gets blown out again with strong offshore winds (22 to 25 mph from the WNW) – too much wind to enjoy the 4ft to 5ft swell. Monday the 24th sees the swell jump to 7ft to 8ft from the SE, with strong energy (532 to 671), but the wind is cross-onshore from the south, making it a choppy mess. That size is getting into expert territory anyway, and with bad wind, it’s not worth it.

So, bottom line: your best windows are Friday the 21st morning and Saturday the 22nd afternoon. Get out there for those. The water temp is 64°F, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year – about 2°F off. Nothing crazy, but you’ll want a decent wetsuit. Newcastle Beach is a beginner-friendly spot that’s very consistent and exposed to swell from the SE, so it handles a range of conditions, but when the wind is onshore, it gets messy quick. Crowds can be often here, so expect company on those good days.

Rusty.

Read more