Newcastle Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a bit of a wild ride ahead over the next couple of weeks at Newcastle Beach. The first week is a write-off thanks to strong, funky winds and lumpy conditions, but the second half of the outlook is where it gets interesting, especially if you’re after something with a bit more punch.

Right now, the surf is on the messy side. Sunday afternoon is a no-go: 10 ft of south swell (11-second period) with a fresh cross-onshore breeze at 19 mph – that’s lumpy, blown-out, and not worth a splash. The combined energy is quite high at 2222 (moderate to strong), but the wind’s wrecking it. Early next week, Monday through Wednesday, stays pretty average. Swell hangs around the 8 ft to 11 ft mark, mostly from the SSE with periods around 10 to 11 seconds, but every session is marred by cross-onshore or onshore winds between 16 and 19 mph. The water temp here is 66 °F, which is about normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t freeze while getting hammered.

There’s a small window of improvement around Thursday 10 July morning and Friday 11 July. The swell drops to a more manageable 5 ft to 4 ft from the SE (10-second period) with light cross-offshore and offshore winds. Combined energy drops to between 646 and 334 (moderate). It’s clean, rideable, and good for a beginner-friendly session, though the size is modest. Not a standout, but a nice breather after the slop.

Then we hit a dead patch from Sunday 13 July through Wednesday 16 July. Swell drops to 3 ft and below, with energy falling to just 65 or less (weak). Winds turn offshore, which is nice, but there’s barely a wave to surf. A few days of flat to tiny junk.

Now, here’s where the real action starts. From Thursday 17 July morning, things ramp up. You’ll see an 8 ft SSE swell (11-second period) with light cross-offshore breeze at 9 mph — marginal due to energy at 1466 (moderate), but the following Friday afternoon is a bit more promising: 10 ft from the SSE with a very long 16-second period, combined energy of 5633 (strong). The wind is light cross-onshore though, so it won’t be glassy.

The true standout, by a long shot, is Saturday 18 July. Morning brings a 10 ft SE groundswell with a 13-second period and offshore wind at 16 mph. Combined energy is 2522 (strong). This is proper, clean, powerful swell. The afternoon holds at 8 ft SE, 12-second period, still offshore at 12 mph. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers — too big for beginners, but if you’ve got the skill, it’s a gem. The crowds at Newcastle Beach can often be a factor, so get in early for the best of it.

Sunday 19 July stays solid — 6 ft to 7 ft SE/SSE swell with gentle offshore winds, very clean. And on Monday 20 July morning, you’ve got an 8 ft S swell (9-second period) with gentle offshore wind at 9 mph — excellent for experienced surfers again, energy at 1366 (moderate). By the afternoon, the wind picks up, but the morning session is prime.

So, bottom line: if you can wait, the weekend of 18–20 July is where it’s at. Keep Monday 20 July morning in your back pocket too. The first week is mostly a wash, but there’s a proper pulse coming.

Stay salty.
Rusty.

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