Morro Negrito Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – the next week and a half at Morro Negrito is a bit of a slow burn. The first few days are pretty much a write-off, with tiny swell and messy onshore winds. But there’s a glimmer of hope if you’re patient. The real standout arrives at the end of the month, and the early part of August has a few small windows too.

The water temp is about what you’d expect for this time of year, nothing wild.

Let’s start with the bad news. From Sunday 19 July right through to Thursday 23 July, it’s pretty grim. Sunday morning has a tiny 2 ft SSW swell with a 12 second period, but the wind is a cross-on 6 mph from the WNW, making it messy. The wave energy is weak (135). Sunday afternoon is even worse with onshore wind. Monday and Tuesday aren’t much better – small swell, dodgy winds, and a lot of “poor surf conditions” in the data. There’s a brief moment on Tuesday 21 July morning where the wind goes glassy, but the swell is only 2 ft from the SW, period 14 seconds, and the energy is still weak (151). It’s surfable, but don’t expect much.

Wednesday 22 July and Thursday 23 July mornings are glassy again, but the swell is tiny – 1 ft and 2 ft – and the wave energy is low (105 and 82). It’s ordinary, but you could get a few little ones if you’re desperate.

Friday 24 July is a mess. The period jumps to 24 seconds, which is a long-period groundswell, but the swell is only 1 ft from the SSW, and the wind is cross-on or cross-shore. The energy is moderate (286 and 202), but the conditions are marginal. For a reef and point like Morro Negrito, that long period might make the waves a bit too straight and fat. Not worth it.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Saturday 25 July morning is the first real standout. The swell bumps up to 2 ft from the SSW with a period of 21 seconds, and the wind is dead calm, glassy. The combined energy is moderate (370). This is clean, and the close-to-optimum SW direction works well for this exposed SW-facing break. Expect good surf. Saturday afternoon holds with a light cross-off 3 mph from the E, keeping it clean.

Sunday 26 July morning is another cracker – glassy again, 2 ft SSW swell, 19 second period, moderate energy (283). Clean and fun. But Sunday afternoon the wind turns onshore and the quality drops.

Monday 27 July morning is a good one. Glassy, 3 ft SSW swell, 19 second period, and the energy is strong (486). This is the best wave size so far, and with glassy conditions, Morro Negrito will be firing. The period is long, so expect some nice lines on the point. Afternoon turns cross-on and messy.

Tuesday 28 July morning is the absolute best of the whole forecast. The swell hits 3 ft from the SSW, period 18 seconds, and the wind is glassy from the E at 3 mph. The combined energy is strong (545). This is expect very good surf conditions. The cloud cover will keep the sun off, and the crowd profile here is “sometimes,” so you might have it to yourself. If you can only pick one session, this is it. Tuesday afternoon goes onshore, so get out early.

Wednesday 29 July morning is still good – glassy, 3 ft SSW, 16 seconds, strong energy (471). Thursday 30 July morning is glassy again with 3 ft SSW, 15 seconds, and moderate energy (280). The pattern holds until the end of the month.

By Friday 31 July, the swell drops back to 2 ft, and the last few days of the forecast into August 1-3 are small again – 2 ft to 2 ft, with periods around 12-15 seconds. The mornings are clean, but the energy is weak to moderate. You could still get a fun session, but it’s nothing compared to that 28 July window.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is mostly a dud, but the period from Saturday 25 July to Wednesday 29 July has some real gems. The standout is Tuesday 28 July morning – 3 ft SSW swell, glassy, strong energy, and the point will be reeling. Get on it.

Rusty.

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