Morro Negrito Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surfers, Rusty here. Let's talk about the next couple of weeks. It’s going to be a real slow grind for a while, with a proper payoff tucked away at the end. We’ve got a long stretch of small, messy surf to get through before things finally line up. Patience is the name of the game.

The 16-day window opens with a lot of nothing much. For the first week and a half, we’re looking at tiny, weak surf. The energy is really low, with combined swell energy readings mostly in the 80 to 160 range, which is weak to barely moderate. The waves that do show up will be small, and the winds and storms are going to make it hard to find anything clean. The water is sitting at a warm 87° here at Morro Negrito, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you won't need a wetsuit while you're sitting there waiting.

Right from the start, Tuesday the 18th, it’s pretty ordinary. A 2ft SSW swell with a 14-second period is coming in from the cross-off direction, but it’s just not doing much. The energy is weak at 167. There will be a few waves, and the morning looks clean, but it’s not something you’d rush out for.

Wednesday the 19th is a write-off. The wind swings onshore from the WSW, and the surf quality drops off a cliff. We’re looking at poor conditions all day with a combination of small swell and bad wind. Thursday the 20th is a bit better, with a glassy morning and a slightly larger 2ft SSW swell, but the energy is still weak (158). It’s surfable but very ordinary. Friday morning the 21st is much the same, glassy but small and weak. The afternoons are consistently ruined by sea breezes and the risk of thunderstorms.

This pattern of small, weak surf and dicey afternoon winds just keeps rolling on. The weekend of the 22nd and 23rd is more of the same, with tiny 1ft swells and poor surf. There’s a slight kick in period to 16 seconds on Sunday the 23rd afternoon, but the wind ruins it. The following week, from Monday the 24th through to Wednesday the 26th, is a real flat spell. Swell heights drop to 1ft or even 0.7ft, energy falls to below 100, and it’s a real desert out there. Thursday the 27th sees a jump in height but it's a junky 3ft of short-period 6-second wind swell, which is just messy and poor quality.

Finally, the tide starts to turn. There’s a small pulse showing for the morning of Friday the 28th, and you can feel the energy starting to build. But it’s not until the morning of Saturday the 29th that things get genuinely interesting.

Saturday the 29th morning is the first real standout of the period. This is where your patience pays off. We’ve got a 2ft SW swell at a 17-second period, and the energy is building solidly to 325. The window is glassy and clean. This is a true long-period groundswell, and it’s hitting this southwest-exposed reef and point break perfectly. The light airs and glassy conditions will make Morro Negrito look like a pool. This is the one to circle on the calendar. There’s a bit more size on the way, but this is the cleanest, best-shaped window we’ve seen in a while.

The energy continues to climb through the weekend. The morning of Sunday the 30th sees the swell drop slightly to 3ft with a 15-second period, but the energy is up to 428, which is strong. It’s still glassy in the morning and will be pumping, but a bit more onshore wind for the afternoon will make it less perfect.

That leads us into the final standout on Monday the 31st. The wave size is similar at 3ft, but the period is still solid. What sets this apart is the wind: it's absolutely calm, with a glassy surface all morning. The energy remains strong at 299. This is another prime morning session.

After that, it starts to back off again. Tuesday the 1st of September is back to ordinary, and the forecasts for the middle of next week are promising but less certain. The models are hinting at a new, longer-period swell for the morning of Wednesday the 2nd, with a 1ft SW swell at a very long 17-second period. The energy is moderate at 203 and the morning is glassy. That period, if it holds, should groom the break into some great shape. It’s a long-range call, so treat it as promising but not set in stone.

So, if you can only surf one or two days, make it the glassy mornings of Saturday the 29th and Monday the 31st. They are the clear standouts of a very slow fortnight.

Rusty, signing off.

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