Morro Negrito Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s cut to the chase.

The next 16 days are looking mostly flat and underwhelming around here. We've got a real lull for the first stretch. From Tuesday the 25th right through to Friday the 28th, there’s barely a ripple. We're talking knee-high slop at best, with most of that time seeing around 0.7ft to 1ft of swell. It’s surfable in the loosest sense of the word, but honestly, you’re just going to be bobbing around out there. The energy is weak, too, with the combined swell energy value sitting in the low two digits, like 85. You’d be better off finding something else to do.

The wind is mostly light and glassy in the mornings during this stretch, which is a silver lining for sure, but with no real swell to push through, it doesn’t mean much. There are also a few storm risks kicking around in the afternoons, so the mornings are your only real window, and even then, it’s marginal.

Now, there is a slight pulse of energy that shows up as we head into the weekend. Saturday the 29th morning is the first time things start to feel a little more interesting. The swell bumps up to 2ft, coming from the southwest, and it’s clean and glassy with barely any wind. The energy is starting to build too, hitting 300. It’s not big, but it’s the first real sign of life. Morro Negrito (Panama) will be breaking, and while it’s still pretty small, for an advanced crew, it could be a fun, clean session on the reef and point. The water is feeling it too, sitting at 87° and that’s a good 4° warmer than the long-term average. It’s noticeably warm, even for here.

Sunday the 30th holds similar wave heights, around 2ft, but the wind gets a bit more cross-onshore in the morning, and the afternoon gets messy. It’s not awful, but it's a step down from Saturday.

The start of the next week, Monday the 31st, is more of the same, with some decent morning conditions but not a whole lot of push. The afternoon does clean up on Monday though, with the wind going glassy and the swell holding at 2ft from the south-southwest. Not a standout, but a chance to get wet.

Then we hit another bit of a flat patch. Tuesday the 1st and Wednesday the 2nd drop back down to 1ft. It’s weak and uninteresting, to be honest.

But here’s where it starts to get promising for later on. The long-range models are showing a more solid swell for the end of the first week into the second. Friday the 4th of September is when I’d start getting a little more excited. The morning brings clean, glassy conditions with 2ft of southwest groundswell. The period is at a nice 18 seconds, so there’s some proper energy behind it. That combined energy is climbing to 358. It’s not huge faces by any standard, but it’s going to be clean and have some push.

The standout of the whole window, though, has gotta be Saturday morning, the 5th of September. The swell pushes up to 3ft and it’s dead calm, flat glass. The period is a solid 16 seconds, and the energy is right up there at 393. This is going to be the pick of the period. Morro Negrito (Panama) should be holding some nice, clean lines on the reef and point. It’s still small enough for that spot to work well, and it’s not going to be too big for the advanced crew. This is the morning to be out there. The afternoon looks like it gets a bit onshore and sloppy, so make the most of the morning.

The following week is more of a holding pattern. Sunday the 6th has similar waist-high fun with clean conditions both morning and afternoon, another good one. After that, it fades a bit through the middle of the week, with a return to smaller surf around 1ft to 2ft.

There is one more glimmer at the very end of the forecast. Wednesday the 9th of September looks promising again, with the swell building to 2ft but the period jumping to a really long 19 seconds. The morning is dead calm and clean, and the energy is back up to 288. It’s not as big as the 5th, but that long period will make it feel more powerful and lined up on the point. It’s definitely worth keeping an eye on.

So, to sum it up: the next few days are a write-off. Get your jobs done. The real action starts on Saturday the 5th of September. That’s your standout. A close second would be the 9th, but that’s a week and a half away, so treat it as a promising lead, not a firm booking. Always remember, the near-term is solid, but the long-range stuff can change.

Catch you in the water.

Rusty

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