Little Rincon Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this isn’t exactly firing, but I’ll walk you through the whole 16-day window like it is.

Looking at the pattern, it’s a pretty lean stretch overall. The swell is coming from the SSW for the first week or so, but the direction is pretty much all wrong for Little Rincon. That break wants WNW swell, and we’re getting the opposite. The wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, light but in the wrong quarter, so don’t expect any clean, peeling waves. The combined swell energy is moderate to weak throughout, with values like 213 (moderate) on the first Monday morning, but paired with that poor direction, it’s just not doing anything for us. The water is a wild 68°F, which is a massive 5°F warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s very unusual, so you’ll be swimming in bathwater, but the waves won’t match.

For Monday the 20th through Thursday the 23rd, it’s all poor surf conditions. Tiny waves, wrong direction, and onshore wind. No point even thinking about paddling out. Friday the 24th morning is the only spot that gets a marginal nod – we’ve got 3ft of SSW swell with a period of 14 seconds and a combined energy of 556 (moderate). That’s the best of a bad bunch, but it’s still coming from the wrong direction and the wind is onshore. It’s a long-period groundswell, but beach breaks won’t love it, and with the poor direction, you’ll be scratching for anything. Crowds are possible at Little Rincon on a Friday, but honestly, I wouldn’t worry about it.

Then we hit a gap from Saturday the 25th all the way through to Tuesday the 4th of August – essentially a 10-day stretch of no real surf on offer. The swell gets tiny, the period drops, and the energy falls to weak numbers like 17 or 22. On the 2nd of August, there’s a 4ft spike from the west, but with a period of only 5 seconds, that’s just wind chop – not worth your time. The wind stays onshore or cross-onshore, so it’s messy.

The only standout here, if you can call it that, is Friday the 24th morning. The swell height is 3ft, direction SSW, period 14 seconds, and the energy is 556. It’s the only time the numbers get close to interesting. But it’s still onshore wind, and the swell direction is wrong. For a spot that’s fairly consistent and fairly exposed, this is a poor run. If you’re a beginner, the swell never gets over 5ft, so it’s not too big, but the quality is so poor it doesn’t matter. For experts, there’s nothing over 8ft, so no heavy stuff.

Bottom line: the next 16 days are a write-off for Little Rincon. The direction is wrong, the wind is wrong, and the swell is too weak. It’s a blank run, and for this area, that’s not unusual when the swell doesn’t match the optimum. Better luck next cycle.

Rusty.

Read more