Little Rincon Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s look at what’s on offer at Little Rincon over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I’ve gotta be straight with you – this is a lean stretch. The whole forecast window is a tough one for Little Rincon, a reef break that’s a real challenge even when it’s good. The water is sitting at a very unusual 66°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s something you don’t see every day.

We’re looking at a solid week of nothing. From Thursday the 16th all the way through to Sunday the 20th, the conditions are just poor. The swell is small, mostly under 3ft, and the wind is onshore or cross-onshore, chopping up what little energy there is. The combined energy is weak, sitting around 157 on Thursday, and it just doesn’t get going. The period on those early days is short, around 9 seconds, so it’s just weak, wind-affected slop. Not worth a paddle.

There’s a slight flicker on Monday the 20th morning. The swell bumps up to 3ft from the SSW, and the combined energy jumps to 367, which is a moderate push. The period is a bit better at 14 seconds. But even then, the wind is cross-onshore from the SW, and the forecast calls it marginal at best. It’s a short-lived tease, and by afternoon it’s gone again.

The rest of that week and into the next is more of the same – poor surf, small swell, and onshore winds. The energy dips back into the weak range, with values like 79 on Thursday the 23rd. There’s a long-period spike on Friday the 24th morning, with a 24-second period, but the swell is only 1ft, so it’s just a long wait for a tiny wave. The energy is 313, but it’s not enough to overcome the onshore wind.

The second week, from the 25th onward, the combined energy starts to show some moderate to strong numbers. For example, Saturday the 25th afternoon hits 504, and Sunday the 26th morning has 437. The swell stays around 2ft to 3ft, with periods from 13 to 19 seconds. But the wind is consistently onshore from the WSW or SW. That’s the killer. For a reef break that needs clean conditions, this onshore flow is just going to make it a bumpy, blown-out mess. The best morning is Tuesday the 28th, with a 3ft SSW swell, 18-second period, and 418 energy, but it’s still a light onshore breeze. The forecast still calls it marginal.

Honestly, for the whole 16 days, there are no standouts. The swell direction is mostly SSW, which is not the optimum WNW direction for this spot. The wind is a problem nearly every day. The only time we see a bit of a pulse is the 20th and then again around the 28th, but the wind just doesn’t cooperate. This is a break for experts, and even they would be frustrated.

So, for the next two weeks, I’d keep the board in the car and the wax in the wrapper. It’s a long stretch of poor surf. The setup is more interesting for a kite session than a paddle session if the wind stays up. But hey, it’s a quiet spell for Little Rincon. Forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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