Le Petit Train Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve gotta be straight with you – the outlook for Le Petit Train over the next 16 days is a tough one. We’re looking at a long stretch of nothing much to get excited about. The swell is tiny, the wind is often messy, and the water is sitting at 74°, which is a solid 5° warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s very unusual, feels like bathwater.

The first real chance of anything worth paddling out for is Saturday morning, 11th July. The swell is a pathetic 2 ft from the WNW with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy is weak at 73, but it’s glassy. That’s the only thing going for it – dead calm, clean conditions. It’s surfable but very ordinary, and Le Petit Train is an inconsistent beginner wave that gets exposed to the swell. It’s not going to be anything special, but at least you won’t be fighting the wind. Crowds are sometimes a factor here, but with this lack of quality, it’ll probably be quiet.

Sunday morning, 12th July, is a bit of a repeat – 2 ft from the WNW, 9-second period, weak energy at 52, but this time we get a gentle offshore wind from the ESE. That’ll clean it up nicely, but again, the swell’s just too small and weak to call it a standout. It’s a poor outlook.

After that, it’s a brutal gap. From Sunday afternoon right through to Tuesday, 21st July, there’s almost nothing to report. The swell gets even smaller, the wind turns onshore or cross-onshore, and the energy drops into the 20s and 30s. It’s completely flat or blown out. The only slight flicker is on Saturday morning, 18th July, when the period jumps to 12 seconds from the WNW with 1.0 ft of swell and energy at 44, but it’s an onshore wind. That’s a no-go.

Then we get a bit of a pulse around Sunday, 19th July, into the following week. The swell starts to build – 3 ft on Sunday afternoon, then 4 ft on Monday morning, 20th July, with the energy hitting 128 to 135. That’s moderate energy, but it’s all from the WNW with a short period of 7 seconds, and the wind is cross-onshore. It’s going to be lumpy, choppy, and poor surf conditions. The best of the whole run might be the morning of Monday, 20th July, with a light cross-shore, but it’s still just a weak, short-period wave.

The real standout, if you can call it that, is Wednesday, 22nd July, through to Friday, 24th July. The swell size jumps – 5 ft on Wednesday morning, up to 7 ft on Friday afternoon, with energy spiking from 206 to 539. That’s strong to very strong wave energy. But the problem is the wind: it’s onshore or cross-onshore the whole time, from the NW and WNW at 12-16 mph. The period is short – 7 to 8 seconds – so it’s going to be messy, choppy, and close to impossible to get a clean ride. For a beginner break like Le Petit Train, anything over 5 ft starts to get tricky, and by 7 ft it’s only for experts. With the onshore wind, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

So, to sum it up: there’s no true standout. The best window is the morning of Saturday, 11th July, or Sunday, 12th July, for a tiny, clean, glassy session, but it’s not worth getting excited about. The bigger swell later in the month is too blown out. For the area, a blank run like this is pretty normal – forecasts can change, but for now, leave the board at home.

Rusty.

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